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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 340316 times)

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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1450 on: October 08, 2012, 08:15:28 pm »

I never play the NFL as ya'll can see in here, but I've been rather hot picking games on ESPNs ATS and thought I'd give it a try.  It's really just a hunch play because I don't think the Jets are as bad as they've shown.  The Texans have played what I perceive to be the easiest schedule in the NFL, so far and I think they are being overvalued.  I have confidence in a Rex Ryan defense to bounce back and be up for primetime games. Andre Johnson hasn't been 100%, and hasn't been getting targeted much lately. Maybe it's because he hasn't been needed, but Cromartie is plenty good to keep him under wraps.  Aarian Foster has also not been up to his usual standards averaging less that 4 YPC against bad teams. Then there is always the chance for some Tebow magic.

The Jets are my V Tech of the NFL. I just can't imagine they are as bad as they showed last week. We'll see if it burns me!

impressive call on cromartie, already one pick!
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1451 on: October 08, 2012, 09:36:50 pm »

Liking K State over Iowa State. Has anyone heard if TCU QB is playing? I think they were meeting today. If he isn't playing, looking at Baylor. I'm liking the SEC and Big 12 this year. ACC and Big Ten are terrible to predict.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1452 on: October 08, 2012, 09:48:20 pm »

Looks like the total will fall tonight.  Appears I goofed that.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1453 on: October 08, 2012, 10:06:23 pm »

if i lose this texans game i'm gonna be livid.  come on Houston, play some dang football.  No more pansie field goals
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1454 on: October 08, 2012, 10:11:57 pm »

few lines I'm leaning towards so far, wont bet them all but will take into consideration...

Ole Miss (-4.5) vs Auburn

Duke (+10) @ Va. Tech.

Maryland (+2.5) @ Virginia

Oregon St (+2.5) @ BYU

Alabam (-21.5) @ Mizzou

W. Virginia (-4.5) @ Texas Tech

Florida (-7.5) @ Vandy

South Carolina (+2.5) @ LSU (night game at LSU is TOUGH, but I have no faith in LSU's offense to score against SC's defense

Miss. St (-3) vs Tenner


Thoughts on any of these?
I like ole miss, Bama, WV, and Fl. Like the under on Sc and Lsu. I don't touch the acc anymore.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1455 on: October 08, 2012, 10:14:55 pm »

Small play, but I'm taking Jets +10 for 1 unit.

are you a wizard or something?  there is no way in hell the jets should be close in this game.  what are next week's lotto numbers?
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1456 on: October 08, 2012, 10:29:00 pm »

if i lose this texans game i'm gonna be livid.  come on Houston, play some dang football.  No more pansie field goals

No kidding.  Good news is that the Chez now has the ball with the game on the line, pretty good chance of Texans scoring. 
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1457 on: October 08, 2012, 10:48:17 pm »

No kidding.  Good news is that the Chez now has the ball with the game on the line, pretty good chance of Texans scoring.

the football gods hate me this weekend.  I pulled a big 0-fer on all my bets this weekend.  Lost Arkansas, lost Georgia, lost Texans, lost my parlay.

IDK how the Texans dont beat up one of the worst teams in the NFL (esp with all the Jets injuries) by more than 6 but that's how it goes i guess.  I am definitely done betting the NFL though, too many unpredictable games.  Guess I shoulda learned from you WILL CLINTON since you've been doing it a while. 

congrats on your win yraciv, that was a heck of a pick!
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1458 on: October 08, 2012, 11:24:03 pm »


congrats on your win yraciv, that was a heck of a pick!


Thanks Huck! I don't pick NFL games much, but I've historically hit them at a greater clip than my college games. Unfortunately my interests are much more entrenched in the college game, so that is where my money goes. I'm hot right now and keep falling into wins. Wish I could have convinced some of ya'll on to the winning side, but man it's hard to sell these Jets.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1459 on: October 08, 2012, 11:29:53 pm »

Had a horrible week last week, going 3-6. Here's the updated record and some I've already put down for this week.

Losses:
TCU -7....2*
UCLA -2.5....2*
USC -13....1*
LSU -3....1*
Georgia +3....1*
VT +6….1* 

Wins:
Pitt +1.5....2*
Clemson -10....3*
OU -4.5….1*



2012-2013 CFB
  Record 27-23-0 (54%)    Profit  $2170    Bankroll $4170    ROI 109%




And for this week...
Duke +10....1*
Kansas St -6.5 (bought down to -6)....2*
Miami +6.5 (bought up to +7)....1*
WV -4.5....1*
South Carolina +3....1*
Ohio St -17....2*



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BigSexyHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1460 on: October 08, 2012, 11:46:47 pm »

are you a wizard or something?  there is no way in hell the jets should be close in this game.  what are next week's lotto numbers?

lol
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1461 on: October 09, 2012, 06:57:41 am »

Monday nights have not been kind to me as of late.

At early glance this week I like Notre Dame, W VA, K-State
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1462 on: October 09, 2012, 07:01:12 am »

Thanks Huck! I don't pick NFL games much, but I've historically hit them at a greater clip than my college games. Unfortunately my interests are much more entrenched in the college game, so that is where my money goes. I'm hot right now and keep falling into wins. Wish I could have convinced some of ya'll on to the winning side, but man it's hard to sell these Jets.

Heck the total on that was 40.5  before the game I would have said the Texans would have to score 41 all by themselves for that thing to go over.

Desperate teams play desperately. What makes it gambling an makes it fun.

Nice call on that by the way.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1463 on: October 09, 2012, 02:37:45 pm »

As far as MNF goes, I had an old friend tell me when I was just learning what Arkansas -17.5 meant, that you always bet on a home dog of more than 6, on MNF.

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bosshog84

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1464 on: October 10, 2012, 09:33:49 am »

Looking at this week's games, this is what I like so far...

Washington St +7.5 vs. Cal
Tennessee +3 @ Miss St
Arkansas -17 vs. Kentucky
Kansas St -6.5 @ Iowa St
Bama -21 @ Missouri
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1465 on: October 10, 2012, 09:41:42 am »

just doing small parlays this weekend.  no big money on the table for me. 

Parlay 1 ($10.00 to win $250) -

Mississippi (-6) vs Aubrun

Duke (+10) @ Va. Tech

Florida (-8.5) @ Vanderbilt

S. Carolina (+2.5) @ LSU

W. Virginia (-4) @ Texas Tech


Parlay 2 (this will be nearly impossible to hit - $500 to win $750):

Ole Miss (-6) and under 49.5

Florida (-8.5) @ Vandy and over 40

S.Carolina (+2.5) @ LSU and under 39.5

W. Virginia (-4) @ Texas Tech and over 77.5


Parlay 3 ($10.00 to win $400):

Mississippi (-6) vs Auburn

Duke (+10) @ Va. Tech

Kansas State (-7) @ Iowa State

S.Car (+2.5) @ LSU

Baylor (-8) vs TCU

W. Virginia (-4) @ Texas Tech


Wish me luck, after this past weekend I sure as hell need it

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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1466 on: October 10, 2012, 09:43:20 am »

As far as MNF goes, I had an old friend tell me when I was just learning what Arkansas -17.5 meant, that you always bet on a home dog of more than 6, on MNF.

you shared these words of wisdom a few days late for me  ;)
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1467 on: October 10, 2012, 10:08:58 am »

you shared these words of wisdom a few days late for me  ;)

I honestly didn't think about it until I was watching the last seconds of the game tick away. Don't get me wrong, it's not something that made me not bet on it, just a little tidbit I remembered, especially when I noticed the Jets lost by only 5.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1468 on: October 10, 2012, 10:24:20 am »

I honestly didn't think about it until I was watching the last seconds of the game tick away. Don't get me wrong, it's not something that made me not bet on it, just a little tidbit I remembered, especially when I noticed the Jets lost by only 5.

your old friend was a wise, wise man!
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1469 on: October 10, 2012, 02:48:47 pm »

This is going to be my first week ever to bet. Depending on what happens might be my last. I have $1250.00 to bet with. Can someone explain how i do this? All i see is something that says buy points. What does this mean?
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1470 on: October 10, 2012, 02:57:29 pm »

I just want to bet the line cause that's all I understand at the moment.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1471 on: October 10, 2012, 05:20:39 pm »

This is going to be my first week ever to bet. Depending on what happens might be my last. I have $1250.00 to bet with. Can someone explain how i do this? All i see is something that says buy points. What does this mean?

Basically, when you buy points, you are able to move the line in your favor, by .5 point increments, or 1 point increments for a smaller payout. IE: If Arkansas is -17.5 v Kentucky at -110, that means you take Arkansas, and if they win by 18, you win $100 for ever $110 you lay on them. if you decide to buy points, you can buy Arkansas down to -17, but you pay -125. Which means that you win $100 for every $125 you lay if they win by 18.

Hope that makes sense, I'm at work so I'm kind of typing and then working, then coming back to finish. lol
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1472 on: October 10, 2012, 09:15:04 pm »

This is going to be my first week ever to bet. Depending on what happens might be my last. I have $1250.00 to bet with. Can someone explain how i do this? All i see is something that says buy points. What does this mean?

If you have 1250.00 to bet with look at thur fri and sat action only.  Pick out what you think the three strongest plays are. Put 200.00 on each.  If you make money or lose, and want to play something on Sunday you are still able. Also gives you a better shot at sticking around for another week.

Your bankroll should determine how much and what you bet.
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bsking

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1473 on: October 11, 2012, 09:42:24 am »

Just put my biggest bet ever, 15 units on WV -4.

Also put

A&M -7.5
OM -6
OK St. -24
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1474 on: October 11, 2012, 09:49:19 am »

Just put my biggest bet ever, 15 units on WV -4.

Good luck! IDK why the line is so low on that game.  It shocks me really.
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hogball33

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1475 on: October 11, 2012, 09:49:38 am »

Hate to say it but i'm taking LSU under the lights in death valley - 2.5.

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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1476 on: October 11, 2012, 09:55:16 am »

Teams I like this week to cover in order of confidence. WV, okie state, K State, baylor, mich, bama, ags, Fla, Miss, Lsu/sc under, mich/ILL over, hogs.

tonight: W kentucky, tulsa, ariz state  for fun. Haven't done a lot of research on thurs. night games.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2012, 11:46:07 am by ur »
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The Great Hogsby

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1477 on: October 11, 2012, 09:56:44 am »

Hate to say it but i'm taking LSU under the lights in death valley - 2.5.

This one's in the bag.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1478 on: October 11, 2012, 10:12:11 am »

This one's in the bag.

I do worry a little bit about this one.  SC just came off an emotional win and LSU just came off a big loss.  Seems LSU should be a little more motivated, esp being at home and at night in Death Valley.  Very tough to beat LSU there. 

That said, I think SC is a better team on paper.  LSU should have a very tough time moving the ball, esp if Georgia did.  I dont see SC putting up the numbers it did against Georgia, but LSU has two big injuries at LB that may hurt them a bit.  Their D line should still cause more problems than Georgia's did. 

I wouldnt be surprised to see LSU win, but for that to happen I think it would have to be a VERY close game.  Dont see LSU blowing out SC (esp with SC's defenese).
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hogball33

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1479 on: October 11, 2012, 10:32:50 am »

I do worry a little bit about this one.  SC just came off an emotional win and LSU just came off a big loss.  Seems LSU should be a little more motivated, esp being at home and at night in Death Valley.  Very tough to beat LSU there. 

That said, I think SC is a better team on paper.  LSU should have a very tough time moving the ball, esp if Georgia did.  I dont see SC putting up the numbers it did against Georgia, but LSU has two big injuries at LB that may hurt them a bit.  Their D line should still cause more problems than Georgia's did. 

I wouldnt be surprised to see LSU win, but for that to happen I think it would have to be a VERY close game.  Dont see LSU blowing out SC (esp with SC's defenese).
Good points, I think it will be a tight low scoring game,  which makes the -2.5 enticing for LSU. It really could go either way. I think SC has had a relatively soft schedule until last week with that huge win, but to go on the road and do that is a different story. If SC can score a couple TD's it may be enough. Even Auburn's D held LSU to 12 points.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1480 on: October 11, 2012, 10:38:38 am »

I took SC +3 at 2 units.  I think SC is the better team this year, but I'm having a hard time visualizing an SC win at LSU at night, so I don't plan on playing more than 2 units.   
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1481 on: October 11, 2012, 11:05:07 am »

Basically, when you buy points, you are able to move the line in your favor, by .5 point increments, or 1 point increments for a smaller payout. IE: If Arkansas is -17.5 v Kentucky at -110, that means you take Arkansas, and if they win by 18, you win $100 for ever $110 you lay on them. if you decide to buy points, you can buy Arkansas down to -17, but you pay -125. Which means that you win $100 for every $125 you lay if they win by 18.

Hope that makes sense, I'm at work so I'm kind of typing and then working, then coming back to finish. lol
This sounds like good advice. Maybe i can try that next time. Cause I already put $1250 for West Virginia to win.
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1482 on: October 11, 2012, 11:23:49 am »

If you have 1250.00 to bet with look at thur fri and sat action only.  Pick out what you think the three strongest plays are. Put 200.00 on each.  If you make money or lose, and want to play something on Sunday you are still able. Also gives you a better shot at sticking around for another week.

Your bankroll should determine how much and what you bet.
This is what I should have done.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1483 on: October 11, 2012, 11:41:48 am »

This sounds like good advice. Maybe i can try that next time. Cause I already put $1250 for West Virginia to win.

holy balls.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1484 on: October 11, 2012, 11:43:57 am »

This is what I should have done.

Def. listen to what jeff has to say, very good advice and i found this out the hard way.  put too many eggs in one basket last week and it bit me in the a$$.  definitely like the strategy of picking 3 or 4 of your favorites, make moderate bets, but I would be weary of betting more than 3/4ths of your bank roll.  like i said, I learned this the hard way last weekend
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hogball33

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1485 on: October 11, 2012, 11:45:48 am »

This sounds like good advice. Maybe i can try that next time. Cause I already put $1250 for West Virginia to win.
Pow!! The spread dropped to - 3-1/2 after I took WV. Always seems to happen.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1486 on: October 11, 2012, 02:12:23 pm »

Pow!! The spread dropped to - 3-1/2 after I took WV. Always seems to happen.

Worries me that it has dropped a point already, must be some huge money on Texas Tech....Wonder what they know that we don't.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1487 on: October 11, 2012, 02:20:26 pm »

Worries me that it has dropped a point already, must be some huge money on Texas Tech....Wonder what they know that we don't.

this is exactly what i'm thinking... I know Tech throws the ball more than UT but still, its Tech.  They just got crushed by OU at home... what do they know taht we dont
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1488 on: October 11, 2012, 04:22:09 pm »

My picks for the week -


Uab +13 1/2 @ Houston
Michigan -24 1/2 vs Illinois
Fresno St +9 @ Boise
Oregon St +5 1/2 @ Byu
Alabama -21 @ Mizz
Kentucky +16 1/2 @ Arkansas
Kansas St -6 1/2 @ Iowa St 
Baylor -7 vs TCU
West Virginia -4 @ Texas Tech
Ohio St -17 @ Indiana
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Blutoblutarsky

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1489 on: October 11, 2012, 04:39:28 pm »

Anyone like the games tonight?
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1490 on: October 11, 2012, 04:51:13 pm »

I am going Pittsburgh -6.5. 

Pittsburgh hasn't been good on the road, but they have Mendenhall back which will help the run, and Tenn pass defense isn't good.  Big Ben has been great on third downs. 

Pitt is 3rd in league allowing passing yards and well Tenn rushing game is awful mostly due to a terrible o-line.  Hassellbeck will be a turnover machine I think. 

I just don't see it being close. 
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1491 on: October 11, 2012, 05:46:38 pm »

Titans +7 as home dogs .........W
Utep/Tulsa u62.......................W
Arizona st -21.........................W
« Last Edit: October 12, 2012, 11:45:05 am by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1492 on: October 11, 2012, 06:39:41 pm »

Steeler -5.5 looking for a 20 Point + steelers win and yes I know Troy p and friggin Woodley are out.

Forgot to add its a 4 unit play.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2012, 07:13:07 pm by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson »
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1493 on: October 11, 2012, 06:49:29 pm »

This is what I should have done.

If you are looking for one big hit, pocket the cash, and quit you are going about it the right way.  I do like the pick, but not an entire bankroll pick whether you bankroll is 100.00 1250.00 or 20,000.00.  W Va flew into Austin and won. Back to Morgantown, now flying into Lubbock. That is the only reason the line isn't WVa -10 or more. Somewhat like a west coast team in nfL flowing to the eastern time zone for an early start.

I think you win your bet.  That being said this is an investment for me. Started at 15 and 40 now. Have made money the past 20 or more years. Took my lumps the hard way.  I still have horrible weeks, but its all about the entire season. Roll over what you win to next year. Trust me on this I can survive some horrible weeks because of many previous profitable seasons.

Never make a big bet to buy an item you want for instance. You may hit once or twice, but sooner or later it will bite you in the butt.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1494 on: October 11, 2012, 07:10:01 pm »

Bought the Steelers and the hook @ -6
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1495 on: October 11, 2012, 07:48:14 pm »

If you are looking for one big hit, pocket the cash, and quit you are going about it the right way.  I do like the pick, but not an entire bankroll pick whether you bankroll is 100.00 1250.00 or 20,000.00.  W Va flew into Austin and won. Back to Morgantown, now flying into Lubbock. That is the only reason the line isn't WVa -10 or more. Somewhat like a west coast team in nfL flowing to the eastern time zone for an early start.

I think you win your bet.  That being said this is an investment for me. Started at 15 and 40 now. Have made money the past 20 or more years. Took my lumps the hard way.  I still have horrible weeks, but its all about the entire season. Roll over what you win to next year. Trust me on this I can survive some horrible weeks because of many previous profitable seasons.

Never make a big bet to buy an item you want for instance. You may hit once or twice, but sooner or later it will bite you in the butt.

Good advice right here
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1496 on: October 12, 2012, 09:11:07 am »

If you are looking for one big hit, pocket the cash, and quit you are going about it the right way.  I do like the pick, but not an entire bankroll pick whether you bankroll is 100.00 1250.00 or 20,000.00.  W Va flew into Austin and won. Back to Morgantown, now flying into Lubbock. That is the only reason the line isn't WVa -10 or more. Somewhat like a west coast team in nfL flowing to the eastern time zone for an early start.

I think you win your bet.  That being said this is an investment for me. Started at 15 and 40 now. Have made money the past 20 or more years. Took my lumps the hard way.  I still have horrible weeks, but its all about the entire season. Roll over what you win to next year. Trust me on this I can survive some horrible weeks because of many previous profitable seasons.

Never make a big bet to buy an item you want for instance. You may hit once or twice, but sooner or later it will bite you in the butt.

great advice jeff.  +1. 

I can't believe the steelers lost this one.  I feel like if you bet the underdog on every game for the weekend in the NFL, you would win the majority of your bets.  Esp an underdog at home.  NFL is crazy.  The real fun starts tomorrow though, cant wait! got some great football games on. 

Unfortunately it is my GF's bday weekend so idk how much i'll get to watch but I bought her a badass present so that may allow me some freedom
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1497 on: October 12, 2012, 09:48:24 am »

I appreciate everyone's insight in this thread.  I'm in my third year of doing this and still have a LOT to learn.  Here's what I'm doing so far this weekend:

Bama -21.5 (10 units)
Ole Miss -5 (4 units)
Ole Miss/Auburn under 48.5 (10 units)
SCe +3 (2 units)
Florida -8.5 (2 units)
W. VA -4 (2 units)

The Ole Miss/Auburn game is my first o/u play of the season.  In SEC play, OM is averaging 20.5 ppg and Aub is averaging 9 ppg, and they are both 1-4 in covering o/u.  I just don't see Aub scoring enough points for this to approach 48.5.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2012, 09:53:15 am by DadVader1 »
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1498 on: October 12, 2012, 09:57:41 am »

Teams I like this week to cover in order of confidence. WV, okie state, K State, baylor, mich, bama, ags, Fla, Miss, Lsu/sc under, mich/ILL over, hogs.

tonight: W kentucky, tulsa, ariz state  for fun. Haven't done a lot of research on thurs. night games.
Good Start!
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1499 on: October 12, 2012, 10:03:23 am »

LSU     -2.5
Miami     +8
UL     -3
UK     +18.5
WVU     -4
Aub/Miss     u48.5 (copied from DadVad)

6pt teaser:  OSU  -11.5  &  DU  +16
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