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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 331072 times)

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1200 on: September 22, 2012, 09:50:25 am »

No doubt.  The three man fron and prevent D prevented a cover for us.  I am snake bit as they say.
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1201 on: September 22, 2012, 10:11:53 am »

Here's mine for the day.
3 units:
LSU -20.5 L
2 units:
Clem +14.5 W
Syr -1 L
Mich +6 L
1 unit:
Troy +2 W
Oregon under 80 W
UVA +18 L

Week 3-4, down 4 units
YTD: 20-12-1, -.5 unit
« Last Edit: September 28, 2012, 08:40:38 pm by yraciv »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1202 on: September 22, 2012, 11:23:27 am »

Troy pk @ North Texas....2*                   
Boise St-7 v BYU....1*           lost
Virginia Tech -17....1*          win
Wisky -17.5 (hook)....1*       lost
LSU -20....1*
Michigan +5.5....1*
Georgia -14.5 (hook)....1*
Louisville -13....2*
USC -15....1*
Oklahoma -16....1*

2012-2013 CFB
  Record 11-8-0 (58%)    Profit  $1598    Bankroll $3598    ROI 80%



Adding VTech and Wisky on a hunch. I don't think they are as bad as they have been playing and both of them have opponents this week they could really put a hurt on.

Adding Louisville and USC based on someone elses picks. May not be a good strategy.

I also added a parlay of USC, Mich, Louisville, Georgia, LSU and Oklahoma for the fun of it. I had like $3.80 in my account left over, so I put it all on the parlay for a payout of $173.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2012, 03:10:47 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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wwwhogfan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1203 on: September 22, 2012, 12:51:31 pm »

Alcorn State +42
Arkansas -370 for the win
LSU -19
LSU/Auburn Over 47
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1204 on: September 22, 2012, 01:14:32 pm »

No doubt.  The three man fron and prevent D prevented a cover for us.  I am snake bit as they say.

Jeff I'm hoping you bet Miami cause if you do i'll feel better about winning my jets bet  ;)

jk buddy, i feel bad for ya
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1205 on: September 22, 2012, 03:05:55 pm »

Alcorn State +42
Arkansas -370 for the win
LSU -19
LSU/Auburn Over 47

Can't believe someone would bet that large of a moneyline. And did you see something from Alcorn State in that UAPB drubbing that made you think they can keep it within 40 or are you just anti Malzahn?
« Last Edit: September 22, 2012, 03:54:44 pm by yraciv »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1206 on: September 22, 2012, 03:06:46 pm »

Virginia Tech -17....1*
Wisky -17.5 (hook)....1*
LSU -20....1*
Michigan +5.5....1*
Georgia -14.5 (hook)....1*
Louisville -13....2*
USC -15....1*
Oklahoma -16....1*


Adding VTech and Wisky on a hunch. I don't think they are as bad as they have been playing and both of them have opponents this week they could really put a hurt on.

Adding Louisville and USC based on someone elses picks. May not be a good strategy.

I also added a parlay of USC, Mich, Louisville, Georgia, LSU and Oklahoma for the fun of it. I had like $3.80 in my account left over, so I put it all on the parlay for a payout of $173.

So far I'm 1-1 on my "hunches". Wisky just isn't that good of a team.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1207 on: September 23, 2012, 01:13:13 am »

Looks like 4-4
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1208 on: September 23, 2012, 09:39:09 am »

bad day for me yesterday.  cant believe Arizona didnt cover even with a 10pt teaser.  even arkansas state covered for goodness sakes.  Adding another 4 units to the jets.  Goin big on them today, total of 11 units.  really need this one to hit, if not ill be taking a breather for a bit.
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Dr. Starcs

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1209 on: September 23, 2012, 09:41:46 am »

Went 6-2-1 yesterday.

Wins -
Central Michigan, Georgia, Penn St, Notre Dame, Kansas St, Florida Atlantic

Losses -
Boise St, West Virginia

Push -
Memphis.


12-2-1 on the season.
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Blutoblutarsky

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1210 on: September 23, 2012, 10:11:05 am »

I like the Skins -3
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1211 on: September 23, 2012, 10:53:21 am »

Finally had a good day yesterday! About time!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1212 on: September 23, 2012, 10:59:48 am »

Steelers -4 for a dime. 10 unit play and yes I know Harrison and Troy P are out.

Rams +7 for 2 units.
Lions -4 / 3 units
Bills -2.5 / 2 units
Cardinals +3 / 2 units
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1213 on: September 23, 2012, 11:02:27 am »

San Fran -7 for $500
Detroit  -4 for $200

Haven't bet all week but love these lines.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1214 on: September 23, 2012, 12:10:20 pm »

Took South Carolina yesterday....2.5 units.  Easy money there I may bet against Mizzou for the rest of the year every game.

Today I'm doing:

Lions -4 for 1 unit
Steelers -4 for 3 units. 
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1215 on: September 23, 2012, 03:21:04 pm »

Oh come on Jets, hold off Miami!!
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1216 on: September 23, 2012, 03:25:33 pm »

Added Hou -1.5
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Dr. Starcs

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1217 on: September 23, 2012, 05:12:26 pm »

Early lines I like this week -------

Penn St +1 1/2 against Illinois
Minnesota + 6 against Iowa
Clemson -11 over Boston College
Central Michigan +12 against Northern Illinois
Oregon -28 over Washington St
Texas +5 1/2 against Oklahoma St
Texas A&M -11 over Arkansas
Florida St -14 over South Florida
Nevada -21 over Texas St
UAB +17 against Tulsa
New Mexico +30 against Boise St
« Last Edit: September 23, 2012, 10:36:45 pm by Dr. Starcs »
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ed_wheeley

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1218 on: September 23, 2012, 06:09:53 pm »

Early lines I like this week -------

Penn St -2 1/2 over Illinois
Minnesota + 6 against Iowa
Clemson -11 over Boston College
Central Michigan +12 against Northern Illinois
Oregon -28 over Washington St
Texas +5 1/2 against Oklahoma St
Texas A&M -11 over Arkansas
Florida St -14 over South Florida
Nevada -21 over Texas St
UAB +17 against Tulsa
New Mexico +30 against Boise St

I think I'd have to agree with you on most of those. Only one I'd be uncertain of is Texas +5.5. Neither team has proven enough to me to make me comfortable putting money down.
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Dr. Starcs

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1219 on: September 23, 2012, 07:14:49 pm »

Texas wins at ole miss by 35, ok St loses at arizona by 21. I feel good about it.
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ed_wheeley

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1220 on: September 23, 2012, 08:20:23 pm »

Texas wins at ole miss by 35, ok St loses at arizona by 21. I feel good about it.

You just refreshed my memory enough to pick Texas. Isn't Wes Lunt hurt too?
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Dr. Starcs

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1221 on: September 23, 2012, 10:36:20 pm »

Not sure about that.

And I made a typo earlier. I've got Penn St +1 1/2 against Illinois. I changed it in my previous post.

Man i wish this was legal!
« Last Edit: September 23, 2012, 10:38:11 pm by Dr. Starcs »
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1222 on: September 24, 2012, 06:54:09 am »

W  Added Hou -1.5

W  Troy  pk
W  KSU  +14
L  Vandy  +15.5
W   :puke:   Rutgers  +9 . . . yeah, yeah, I know, I don't want to hear it.  This is money I'd be happy to lose, flush it away PLEASE.  But taking the emotions out of it, +9 is an attractive # to me.

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1223 on: September 24, 2012, 06:54:48 am »

On the sips early this week, -2.5
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1224 on: September 24, 2012, 10:21:28 am »

Really liking some lines this week.  just locked in these bets:

Texas a&m (-13.5) vs Arkansas -- 4 units.  we look awful. no way we stay within 2 TDs, especially on the road.

Texas (-2.5) @ Oklahoma State -- 7 units.  Like Dr. Starcs said, UT won by 35 on the road against Ole Miss, Okie State lost by 21 against Arizona.  UT should be FINE.

Clemson (-9.5) @ Boston College -- 8 units.  The offense looked great against FSU, their D just didnt hold up.  They aren't playing FSU, this is Boston College.  Their D will hold up against Boston College.
 

5 team parlay (bet $35 to win $875):
Texas a&m (-13.5) vs Arkansas
Clemson (-9.5) @ Boston College
Florida State (-16) @ South Florida
TCU (-18) @ SMU
Texas (-2.5) @ Oklahoma State



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MS_HogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1225 on: September 24, 2012, 10:48:12 am »

Huck pig. Congrats on the jets game.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1226 on: September 24, 2012, 10:50:04 am »

Huck pig. Congrats on the jets game.

Thanks! that was a wild ride.  Have never had so much money on a game (had 11 units on it) and boy was my heart racing.  What a crazy ending.  picked up 11 units though, made my weekend!

How'd you end up?
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1227 on: September 24, 2012, 11:14:59 am »

btw really like Stanford (-7) @ Washington.  Already have all my money out for next weekend so I wont be betting but if I had seen that I would have put $ on it as well.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1228 on: September 24, 2012, 11:37:25 am »

Do you guys ever play halftime lines? I was bored/depressed sitting in section 103 at halftime Saturday and placed two halftime bets that hit easily

Western Kentucky was tied at half, they got +1/2 at home

Louisville was also tied at half on the road and was at -6.

I took both and hit both easily. Saved my bad day. I am going to start looking at these halftime lines a lot closer now.
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MS_HogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1229 on: September 24, 2012, 12:34:08 pm »

Thanks! that was a wild ride.  Have never had so much money on a game (had 11 units on it) and boy was my heart racing.  What a crazy ending.  picked up 11 units though, made my weekend!

How'd you end up?

I haven't bet this season. I don't like the online sites. They send out to much spam and junk mail.
They guy I used the last few years moved.
I am just watching you guys right now.
I always lose so it is probably a blessing. LOL   
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1230 on: September 24, 2012, 03:05:01 pm »

Went 3-3 over the weekend.  Unfortunately, my big play was on Baylor, so that last friggin TD by ULM with 6 seconds left turned what would have been a +8 unit weekend into a -6 weekend, making me -1 for the season. 

Nothing has really jumped out at me yet for this week.  I took Missouri +2.5 @ UCF (4 units) ... after which, the line went back to +3. 
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1231 on: September 24, 2012, 03:11:23 pm »

Went 3-3 over the weekend.  Unfortunately, my big play was on Baylor, so that last friggin TD by ULM with 6 seconds left turned what would have been a +8 unit weekend into a -6 weekend, making me -1 for the season. 

Nothing has really jumped out at me yet for this week.  I took Missouri +2.5 @ UCF (4 units) ... after which, the line went back to +3. 

Same here on the Baylor thing. Oh well, I got it back when the Jets hit the game winning field goal.

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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1232 on: September 25, 2012, 09:38:21 am »

some people have got ot be pissed about last nights game.  GB had the spread covered before the replacement refs made the worst call of all time
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1233 on: September 25, 2012, 10:35:51 am »

I am horrible at picking NFL games, so at least I only lost my self-imposed $5 NFL limit.  It's been interesting listening to the former NFL official that the network has had commenting on various calls during the games.  It comes across as a conflict of interest, and it has the look and feel like he is much more likely to be critical of calls than I've noticed in the past.  Granted, I think the grief was deserved for the call last night.
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ed_wheeley

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1234 on: September 25, 2012, 11:53:53 am »

I am horrible at picking NFL games, so at least I only lost my self-imposed $5 NFL limit.  It's been interesting listening to the former NFL official that the network has had commenting on various calls during the games.  It comes across as a conflict of interest, and it has the look and feel like he is much more likely to be critical of calls than I've noticed in the past.  Granted, I think the grief was deserved for the call last night.

I'm not even touching the NFL anymore. i feel like someone just punched me in the balls every time I bet on a game.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1235 on: September 25, 2012, 12:29:13 pm »

My weekend was just bad. I can't figure out how I am so far off on some of these games and it is frustrating the hell out of me. Hope I get back on track this week.


Loses
Oklahoma -16....1*   -198
Boise St-7 v BYU....1*           
Wisky -17.5 (hook)....1*       
LSU -20....1*
Michigan +5.5....1*
Louisville -13....2*   -396

Wins
Troy pk @ North Texas....2*   +360               
Georgia -14.5 (hook)....1* +180
Virginia Tech -17....1*         
USC -15....1*


2012-2013 CFB
  Record 15-14-0 (52%)    Profit  $1112    Bankroll $3112    ROI 56%


As for this weeks games, these are the ones I'm certain about. I doubt I will have time to get back in here much this week, lot of homework due. I am still looking at the Stanford game v Washington, and there are a couple more, but I'll update previous to the games if I add anything else.
VTech -7....2*
Penn St +1.5....1* (line started out PSU -4, but has moved to this, with 61% on PSU)
Miami -2.5....2*
Arizona St +2.5....1*
Texas A&M -13.5....3* (and if there is a prop bet on passing yds, drop some on TAMU)
ULM -18....2*

« Last Edit: September 26, 2012, 09:27:46 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1236 on: September 25, 2012, 02:19:00 pm »

My weekend was just bad. I can't figure out how I am so far off on some of these games and it is frustrating the hell out of me. Hope I get back on track this week.


Loses
Oklahoma -16....1*   -198
Boise St-7 v BYU....1*           
Wisky -17.5 (hook)....1*       
LSU -20....1*
Michigan +5.5....1*
Louisville -13....2*   -396

Wins
Troy pk @ North Texas....2*   +360               
Georgia -14.5 (hook)....1* +180
Virginia Tech -17....1*         
USC -15....1*


2012-2013 CFB
  Record 15-14-0 (52%)    Profit  $1112    Bankroll $3112    ROI 56%


As for this weeks games, these are the ones I'm certain about. I doubt I will have time to get back in here much this week, lot of homework due. I am still looking at the Stanford game v Washington, and there are a couple more, but I'll update previous to the games if I add anything else.
VTech -7....2*
Penn St +1.5....1* (line started out PSU -4, but has moved to this, with 61% on PSU)
Miami -2.5....2*
Arizona St +2.5....1*
Texas A&M -13.5....3* (and if there is a prop bet on passing yds, drop some on TAMU)


thought you'd be a little higher on a&m.  what do you think about the clemson line, Texas line, and TCU line?
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Huckleberry Pig

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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1238 on: September 25, 2012, 04:58:25 pm »

just got a $72.50 bonus from the site I used so I decided to have a little fun with it:

Bet:

$72.50 to win $2,900

Stanford (-7) @ Washington

Clemson (-9.5) @ Boston College

Florida State (-17) @ South Florida

TCU (-16.5) @ SMU

Texas (-3) @ Oklahoma State

A&M (-13.5) vs Arkansas


I have another $35 bet to win $875 with 5 of these games, added the stanford game with the free $.  Would be a hell of a weekend to go 6-0 lol.  Fingers crossed!
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ed_wheeley

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1239 on: September 25, 2012, 05:32:38 pm »

just got a $72.50 bonus from the site I used so I decided to have a little fun with it:

Bet:

$72.50 to win $2,900

Stanford (-7) @ Washington

Clemson (-9.5) @ Boston College

Florida State (-17) @ South Florida

TCU (-16.5) @ SMU

Texas (-3) @ Oklahoma State

A&M (-13.5) vs Arkansas


I have another $35 bet to win $875 with 5 of these games, added the stanford game with the free $.  Would be a hell of a weekend to go 6-0 lol.  Fingers crossed!

I think you've got a pretty decent chance there, Huck Pig. The only game I'm uncertain on out of the lot is TCU-SMU. I think the line on the Florida St and Clemson games aren't high enough. TCU will definitely prevent SMU from scoring a lot of points, but if SMU is at all better offensively than Maryland then it might be close on that one. Buy three points for TCU, though, then I'm all over it.
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ed_wheeley

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1240 on: September 25, 2012, 05:40:09 pm »

One game that I'm ALL over is San Jose State -2.5 @ Navy. If you want to extrapolate it, SJST beat a San Diego State team that trounced Army 42-7, and the word I'm hearing is that Army is favored to beat Navy this year.
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Dr. Starcs

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1241 on: September 25, 2012, 07:28:09 pm »

Good info Ed. Thinking about adding that one.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1242 on: September 25, 2012, 07:48:53 pm »

thought you'd be a little higher on a&m.  what do you think about the clemson line, Texas line, and TCU line?

I like Clemson, Texas and TCU. Clemson and Texas may actually be added to my card later this week. The only thing that worries me, is that everyone is on the same 3. Not often you find 3 games, where the public is right, and they are all favorites. Texas seems like the best of the bunch, don't see anyway they don't win by a TD at least at Ok St.
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ed_wheeley

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1243 on: September 25, 2012, 08:12:56 pm »

I also like LaTech -2.5 @ Virginia. Tech's only non-double digit win was against Houston's passing attack, and they still covered the spread in that game.
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ed_wheeley

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1244 on: September 25, 2012, 10:16:56 pm »

You guys may think I've lost my mind, but I've got a system that I'm going to put to the test this weekend. I went to whatifsports.com and found games in which they had at least 70% confidence in the home team, yet still didn't pick them to cover the spread. From that point, I made a few judgement calls, but I ended up with this 6 point teaser (did the teaser for insurance).

Buffalo +22 @ UCONN
Colorado St. +21 @ Air Force
Idaho +30.5 @ UNC
Middle Tenn St. +33.5 @ GaTech
Marshall +22.5 @ Purdue

A $5 bet on the 6pt teaser pays $22.50
A $1 bet buying 3 pts each on a parlay pays $9.11
A $1 on a progressive parlay pays $11

We'll see how this goes. I've put a good amount of the last few days into drawing up a spreadsheet. I know the saying about playing games on paper, but a computer can realistically find the games where there's the least chance of variance. Those games are what I'm going after. The five I picked are basically mediocre teams playing even more mediocre teams at home.

Theoretically, assuming I'd taken the points on every game this applies to, I'd be 52% correct. If I bought 3 points on every game, that number jumps to 68%. 6 points brings it to an 82% chance. The 6 points is misleading because I'd have to get blocks of games correct, but I guess that's where the human factor and experience wins out.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2012, 10:34:44 pm by ed_wheeley »
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1245 on: September 26, 2012, 03:52:10 pm »

So far, this week, I'm going:
Stanford -6 @ Washington (2 units)
Missouri +2.5 @ UCF (5 units)
A&M -13.5 v. Hogs (8 units ... here's hoping I miss my big play this week)

EDIT: I intended to go 12 units on A&M, but it looks like I didn't hit a final button to make the last 4 official.  I'm sticking with 8 units.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2012, 02:59:01 pm by DadVader1 »
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arkirish

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1246 on: September 26, 2012, 04:02:08 pm »

Love the Jets +4 this weekend against the 49ers, West Coast teams traveling over 3 time zones to play noon games have little success. Also like Mizzou + points against an average UCF team.
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Dr. Starcs

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1247 on: September 26, 2012, 04:47:39 pm »

Be careful with that Ed. Tried the same thing earlier this year when whatif told me Washington +24 would cover against lsu. They actually put the score at 31-21. LSU won 41-3 and I lost (a friendly bet).
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1248 on: September 26, 2012, 05:03:30 pm »

Added:
South Carolina -20.5 @ Kentucky (8 units)

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ed_wheeley

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1249 on: September 26, 2012, 05:30:25 pm »

Be careful with that Ed. Tried the same thing earlier this year when whatif told me Washington +24 would cover against lsu. They actually put the score at 31-21. LSU won 41-3 and I lost (a friendly bet).

Trust me man, I hate myself for even putting forth the effort to find a trend, but I'm definitely staying away from obvious low-end predictions. That basically means staying away from most ranked teams. If anything, I'm risking $5 to enjoy games that I wouldn't otherwise care about.

But I'm never touching an LSU game ever again.
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