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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 326452 times)

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #600 on: August 27, 2012, 12:09:57 pm »

I like the Oregon -35.5 vs Arkansas State line

Anyone think Arkansas State will stay within 35?  I'm thinking no.

Oregons starting QB may or may not play. Don't know for sure yet, but keep that in mind.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #601 on: August 27, 2012, 12:45:21 pm »

Oregons starting QB may or may not play. Don't know for sure yet, but keep that in mind.

Thanks for that. 

Also ASU dismissed WR Earl Lucas yesterday and WR Tres Houston on Friday.  Anyone familiar with ASU know  how much of an impact losing those two will have? 
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #602 on: August 27, 2012, 01:18:13 pm »

It will be interesting to see where Hurricane Isaac ends up on the weekend, could affect a lot of games. 

For example, if it's raining in Nashville for the USCe vs Vandy game, I think taking the under on 46 looks like an attractive bet as the game will be forced to be played on the ground, taking a lot of time off the clock and making it tough to score big points
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #603 on: August 27, 2012, 02:41:20 pm »

Also really leaning toward the Under on the 62pt OU for the aTm vs. La Tech game

aTm's offense oughta be rusty with a new qb/coach but should still be able to hold La Tech on D. 

Thoughts?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #604 on: August 27, 2012, 05:17:56 pm »

Games I am leaning toward as of now.  Nothing official as of yet. 

Aggies -7
S Carolina -6.5
Michigan +13  no way I think they win, but late junk TD could be the cover there.
W Virginia -24
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #605 on: August 27, 2012, 09:36:44 pm »

Also really leaning toward the Under on the 62pt OU for the aTm vs. La Tech game

aTm's offense oughta be rusty with a new qb/coach but should still be able to hold La Tech on D. 

Thoughts?

Key to this bet will be the weather. If it is raining and has been for a couple of days, I can't see anything but the under.

I believe that game is in Shreveport.  Probably a pretty neutral crowd. 

Thanks for that, completely zoned on that one. Makes this one a little more interesting.
I like the Oregon -35.5 vs Arkansas State line

Anyone think Arkansas State will stay within 35?  I'm thinking no.

I really don't like a lot of 25-40 point spreads, because they can go either way. You can be sitting at 42-3 looking good, and a late TD because the waterboys and cheerleaders are playing can ruin a good night. Seen it happen too many times.

There are some teams I don't mind playing that big of a spread, like OU (stoops would run it up vs his mothers team), old Florida, and most Pac-12 games, but wouldn't advise doing it regularly.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #606 on: August 27, 2012, 09:58:25 pm »

Also really leaning toward the Under on the 62pt OU for the aTm vs. La Tech game

aTm's offense oughta be rusty with a new qb/coach but should still be able to hold La Tech on D. 

Thoughts?

I don't bet totals much in the college game or ( over / under). I do more so in the pros.  College totals can actually reach the 70's and even 80 at times.  College games often times scores come in huge bunches. 

A 45 point total for the nfl is considered high.  I know a lot of people that are great cappers vs the line in college ball, but they end up giving back large chunks of their winnings on totals. 

62 is not a huge number, but if I had to play it I would take the under.  Heavy rain should help as well, but also remember that same nasty weather can cause tons of turnovers on punts, fumbled hand offs you name it.  This often leads to many short fields.  Bit of a catch 22 at times.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #607 on: August 27, 2012, 10:23:33 pm »



62 is not a huge number, but if I had to play it I would take the under.  Heavy rain should help as well, but also remember that same nasty weather can cause tons of turnovers on punts, fumbled hand offs you name it.  This often leads to many short fields.  Bit of a catch 22 at times.

Good pt. My natural inclination is to play the U, b/c I'm only thinking about how the rain can support my bet, instead of how it can also be adverse to my position.
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daprospecta

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #608 on: August 27, 2012, 10:41:48 pm »

Games I am leaning toward as of now.  Nothing official as of yet. 

Aggies -7
S Carolina -6.5
Michigan +13  no way I think they win, but late junk TD could be the cover there.
W Virginia -24
Glad this thread is revived.  Don't take the USC-e pick. It's a trap if I've ever seen one.  First off this game started off at 6.5 and everybody and I mean everybody is betting on USC-e.  That being said it's only moved half a point.  That's extremely fishy. Key numbers are important in the NFL but not so much in cfb.  Another thing is Vandy tends to stay in games.  Very few losses last year were by 6 or more.  We seen what Jordan Rogers can do. He's not great but he can play and you know he trained with brother in the off season when he could.  I think USC-e can cover but I see back door written all over this one.  USC-e running Lattimore to burn clock and Vandy sneaks in one.  Vegas doesn't give away games and when they do they move the lines fast.
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hawgwild child

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #609 on: August 27, 2012, 11:03:14 pm »

Not Official but i like
NC St +3.5
Navy +16
Texas A&M -7
I actually like Bama to cover -13
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #610 on: August 28, 2012, 06:32:59 am »

Glad this thread is revived.  Don't take the USC-e pick. It's a trap if I've ever seen one.  First off this game started off at 6.5 and everybody and I mean everybody is betting on USC-e.  That being said it's only moved half a point.  That's extremely fishy. Key numbers are important in the NFL but not so much in cfb.  Another thing is Vandy tends to stay in games.  Very few losses last year were by 6 or more.  We seen what Jordan Rogers can do. He's not great but he can play and you know he trained with brother in the off season when he could.  I think USC-e can cover but I see back door written all over this one.  USC-e running Lattimore to burn clock and Vandy sneaks in one.  Vegas doesn't give away games and when they do they move the lines fast.

I understand what you are saying, but gotta do what I gotta do.  Not playing this game heavy at all,  but will put one unit on SC unless something drastic happens between now and then.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #611 on: August 28, 2012, 06:36:09 am »

Not Official but i like
NC St +3.5
Navy +16
Texas A&M -7
I actually like Bama to cover -13



You may be right on Bama, and I think most would agree with you.  The tide could win it by 40. 

I am thinking bama sputters just enough on offense to keep it interesting.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #612 on: August 28, 2012, 09:49:20 am »

I don't bet totals much in the college game or ( over / under). I do more so in the pros.  College totals can actually reach the 70's and even 80 at times.  College games often times scores come in huge bunches. 

A 45 point total for the nfl is considered high.  I know a lot of people that are great cappers vs the line in college ball, but they end up giving back large chunks of their winnings on totals. 

62 is not a huge number, but if I had to play it I would take the under.  Heavy rain should help as well, but also remember that same nasty weather can cause tons of turnovers on punts, fumbled hand offs you name it.  This often leads to many short fields.  Bit of a catch 22 at times.

Agreed, totals in college games tend to be much higher.  The reason I like it here is because I dont think aTm will allow that many points, I'm thinking 10-14 at most.  I also dont expect them to score a lot of points with the new offense/coach/qb.  Also if it is wet I think that will slow the game down, keep it on the ground and eat up the clock.  Also if it stays on the ground I expect aTm's D-line to be able to hold La Tech pretty easily.  Just my opinion for this game
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #613 on: August 28, 2012, 10:12:54 am »


I really don't like a lot of 25-40 point spreads, because they can go either way. You can be sitting at 42-3 looking good, and a late TD because the waterboys and cheerleaders are playing can ruin a good night. Seen it happen too many times.

There are some teams I don't mind playing that big of a spread, like OU (stoops would run it up vs his mothers team), old Florida, and most Pac-12 games, but wouldn't advise doing it regularly.

I normally dont either but the reason I like it is because it is Oregon, at Oregon.  They are not known to ease off the gas and it is a very high-octane offense that I dont think Arkansas State will be able to stay close with.  Oregon also has a potential Heisman candidate in De'Anthony Thomas and I expect them to beef up his resume early on.  Just my reasoning behind my lean 
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #614 on: August 28, 2012, 10:52:10 am »

BTW they have a pretty good sign-up deal going on at one of the gambling sites.  PM me if you're interested.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #615 on: August 28, 2012, 10:57:21 am »

Best. Hogville. Thread.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #616 on: August 28, 2012, 11:57:00 am »

line bumped up to -7.5 for a&m, makes it a little less safe.  anyone still gonna bite? Im leaning towards still taking it
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #617 on: August 28, 2012, 12:08:58 pm »

line bumped up to -7.5 for a&m, makes it a little less safe.  anyone still gonna bite? Im leaning towards still taking it

I just don't think anyway that game gets played Thursday.  Looks like ole Issac will be hanging out over shreveport around game time. 
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #618 on: August 28, 2012, 12:53:48 pm »

I just don't think anyway that game gets played Thursday.  Looks like ole Issac will be hanging out over shreveport around game time.

good point hooch
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #619 on: August 28, 2012, 01:05:39 pm »

line bumped up to -7.5 for a&m, makes it a little less safe.  anyone still gonna bite? Im leaning towards still taking it

I'm sure I still will, but I will buy that Half point and bet it -7
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #620 on: August 28, 2012, 01:44:34 pm »

looking at doing a 6pt tease down for Oregon (-35.5), West Virginia (-24.5), and OU (-30.5)...

any thoughts/input on this?
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hawgwild child

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #621 on: August 28, 2012, 03:47:34 pm »




You may be right on Bama, and I think most would agree with you.  The tide could win it by 40. 

I am thinking bama sputters just enough on offense to keep it interesting.
Bama is a game i like but will probably lay off and now im having 2nds thoughts on the A&M game
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hawgwild child

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #622 on: August 28, 2012, 03:50:23 pm »

Anybody have any thoughts on Boise St at Michigan St -7
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #623 on: August 28, 2012, 04:02:50 pm »

Anybody have any thoughts on Boise St at Michigan St -7

hate betting Boise State lol
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #624 on: August 28, 2012, 05:08:46 pm »

Anybody have any thoughts on Boise St at Michigan St -7

I would lean Mich St if I had to but I ain't touching.  I understand Boise lost a lot but look how they start the season each year.  Doesn't Michigan state look like they belong at the top of this list?

2011 beat #19 Georgia @ Georgia 
2010 beat #10 Georgia Tech
2009 beat #16 Oregon

Boise manages to play WAY above their heads at the first of the year then seems to come back to earth as the season goes on.  Actually I looked up you know Boise has started at least 8-0 every year since 2006 except 1 and that was a loss at Washington.  They have lost 1 opener since 2002 that is pretty good, I know some of those teams are crap but most are  really good teams. 
« Last Edit: August 28, 2012, 05:14:01 pm by Hooch »
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #625 on: August 28, 2012, 05:14:07 pm »

Anybody have any thoughts on Boise St at Michigan St -7


Mich ST
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #626 on: August 28, 2012, 05:16:11 pm »

looking at doing a 6pt tease down for Oregon (-35.5), West Virginia (-24.5), and OU (-30.5)...

any thoughts/input on this?



I never play teasers of any kind.  I certainly wouldn't with multiple large spreads like you are looking at.  The return is simply not worth the risk.  I know many people play them, but not my thing. 

Better bet is find your three strongest plays and parlay them for the 6-1 return on your money should you hit.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #627 on: August 28, 2012, 05:38:12 pm »

A&M Game officially postponed. 
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #628 on: August 28, 2012, 05:47:47 pm »

So much for a&m game.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #629 on: August 28, 2012, 05:50:19 pm »

My Ag in-laws aren't looking forward to their FR qb's first. Ollege game to be a start vs UF. But the silver lining will be that, relatively speaking, this UF team is a little weak and might present a&m a chance to beat them.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #630 on: August 28, 2012, 05:52:28 pm »

UF will have very little intel on Ags; Ags will have very little intel on Ags, ha.
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jdelo77

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #631 on: August 28, 2012, 08:01:29 pm »

I've got a few I like

Iowa state +1
Miami -3
Bama to cover
WV to cover
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #632 on: August 28, 2012, 10:28:39 pm »

I've got a few I like

Iowa state +1
Miami -3
Bama to cover
WV to cover


Like the 1st 2, wouldn't bet the last 2 with your money.

The truth is, West Virginia may win by 34, but a 24 point spread is just too much chalk to lay when you could be up 45-20 and a late FG or TD screws you out of your money.

As far as Bama goes, I can see them winning by a FG, and I can see them winning by 3 TD's. I don't think that Robinson will be able to be Magic Man against their D, but it's Michigan and Hoke has them going in the right direction. I can see them keeping it close, less than a TD, but I just can't see Bama being the team to pull out the bottom Jenga block on the SEC dominance.

I will have my picks posted sometime tomorrow.

Get ready for some football folks, 45 hours and counting. 
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hawgwild child

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #633 on: August 28, 2012, 10:57:10 pm »

Like the 1st 2, wouldn't bet the last 2 with your money.

The truth is, West Virginia may win by 34, but a 24 point spread is just too much chalk to lay when you could be up 45-20 and a late FG or TD screws you out of your money.

As far as Bama goes, I can see them winning by a FG, and I can see them winning by 3 TD's. I don't think that Robinson will be able to be Magic Man against their D, but it's Michigan and Hoke has them going in the right direction. I can see them keeping it close, less than a TD, but I just can't see Bama being the team to pull out the bottom Jenga block on the SEC dominance.

I will have my picks posted sometime tomorrow.

Get ready for some football folks, 45 hours and counting. 
i just can't see michigan controlling either side of the ball for 4 quarters.  i just keep seeing a 27-13 score.  I like bama to cover, i say it could be around a 17-7 halftime score and them keeping it close for a half but i think bama will cover in the 2nd half
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #634 on: August 29, 2012, 08:40:27 am »



I never play teasers of any kind.  I certainly wouldn't with multiple large spreads like you are looking at.  The return is simply not worth the risk.  I know many people play them, but not my thing. 

Better bet is find your three strongest plays and parlay them for the 6-1 return on your money should you hit.

thanks for the advice!
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Oliver

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #635 on: August 29, 2012, 08:42:15 am »

Someone may have already posted it but Wyoming +30
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #636 on: August 29, 2012, 09:06:01 am »

I"m eyeing these:
ISU +1
NC St +3
Also, O/U for Oregon / ASU was 67 on my site yesterday, but has disappeared today. I like the O. A buddy of mine has it showing on his site, but I'll have to keep checking mine.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #637 on: August 29, 2012, 09:24:31 am »

The truth is, West Virginia may win by 34, but a 24 point spread is just too much chalk to lay when you could be up 45-20 and a late FG or TD screws you out of your money. 

I actually like WVU at -25 and the OVER on that game at 65.  Last year's final score was 34-13 but the game was called because of storms with 14:36 left to play in the 4th quarter (aka they didnt play the entire 4th quarter).  WVU returns 4 starters on the O Line, QB Geno Smith, his two favorite receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, and their 2 running backs Dustin Garrison and Shawn Alston.

On the other hand, WVU ranked next to last in points allowed last year and their D is transitioning this spring from a 3-3-5 to a 3-4.  They also lost 4 of their top 7 tacklers from last season.  Marshall returns their sophmore QB Rakeem Cato (started all of last season as a fresh) who threw for 2,059 yards and 15TDs (again, as a freshman).  They also return 4 of their 5 top receivers.  I really think they will be able to put points on the board.

That being said I have picked WVU at -23.5 (I bought 1.5 points because I wanted to keep their spread under that 24 mark) and have also bet the over at 65.  Sorry for the long post but just wanted to give an informed reason for my pics.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2012, 09:37:41 am by Huckleberry Pig »
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #638 on: August 29, 2012, 09:51:29 am »

The two WVU bets were my first two (of three) bets for the weekend.  My last bet was taking Oregon to cover -34.5 (again, the spread is -35.5 but I bought 1 point to keep the spread under that 35 mark just in case). 

I know Oregon has a freshman starting at QB but they have one of the best running back tandems in the nation.  I expect a lot of dump screens and short passes, nothing too hard for the new QB.  With their up tempo offense, I dont think Arkansas States D keeps up.

Granted Arkansas State has the reigning sunbelt player of the year at QB, and they will be trying to establish an up-tempo offense with Malzahn there.  However, Arkansas State also lost two of their receivers recently and Oregon is used to going up against this type of offense in practice.  Overall, I just think there will be too much of a learning curve this early for the ASU guys to put up big points against Oregon.   

It sounds like most of you dont bet the big spreads and I completely understand.  Just wanted to give you my pics for the weekend and my reasons behind my pics.  Please le tme know if you have any input, would love to hear it!
« Last Edit: August 29, 2012, 10:13:10 am by Huckleberry Pig »
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #639 on: August 29, 2012, 10:10:26 am »

I could be wrong, but by just going off the top of my head I believe ASU has done a helluva job against the spread against BCS opponents over the past few years.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #640 on: August 29, 2012, 10:14:33 am »

I could be wrong, but by just going off the top of my head I believe ASU has done a helluva job against the spread against BCS opponents over the past few years.

You do mean Arkansas State when you say ASU right?

I honestly am unsure of that.  I'll do some research but if you recall the games please let me know
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #641 on: August 29, 2012, 10:36:12 am »

You do mean Arkansas State when you say ASU right?

I honestly am unsure of that.  I'll do some research but if you recall the games please let me know

Yeah, Arkansas State. Last season, Illinois and Va. Tech couldn't cover. In 2010 Auburn and Indiana couldn't cover. In '09 Iowa didn't cover.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #642 on: August 29, 2012, 11:01:53 am »

Yeah, Arkansas State. Last season, Illinois and Va. Tech couldn't cover. In 2010 Auburn and Indiana couldn't cover. In '09 Iowa didn't cover.

+1 Razorback1, appreciate the insight.  However, ASU did lose 7 starters on D from last year so I expect them to allow some big points.  I still feel confident in my bet but I would have definitely been a little more hesitant had I known that.  We will see how it goes!   
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #643 on: August 29, 2012, 11:20:30 am »

The two WVU bets were my first two (of three) bets for the weekend.  My last bet was taking Oregon to cover -34.5 (again, the spread is -35.5 but I bought 1 point to keep the spread under that 35 mark just in case). 

I know Oregon has a freshman starting at QB but they have one of the best running back tandems in the nation.  I expect a lot of dump screens and short passes, nothing too hard for the new QB.  With their up tempo offense, I dont think Arkansas States D keeps up.

Granted Arkansas State has the reigning sunbelt player of the year at QB, and they will be trying to establish an up-tempo offense with Malzahn there.  However, Arkansas State also lost two of their receivers recently and Oregon is used to going up against this type of offense in practice.  Overall, I just think there will be too much of a learning curve this early for the ASU guys to put up big points against Oregon.   

It sounds like most of you dont bet the big spreads and I completely understand.  Just wanted to give you my pics for the weekend and my reasons behind my pics.  Please le tme know if you have any input, would love to hear it!

Not trying to be critical. Just letting you know some of my process. To each his own. I will buy a 1/2 a point on spreads like 7.5 or 3.5. Usually cost ten percent so unread of 110.00 to win 100.00 it's 120.00 and even higher for a full point.  I NEVER buy points on huge spreads in college.  Yes it could save you if they win by exactly 36, but what are the odds of that in college with missed extra points ad frequent 2 point conversions.  If the line is that big and you are worried about 1 point you shouldn't be betting the game. Only time I play a 35 point line is when I expect the favorite to score 50 and te dog to not score at all.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #644 on: August 29, 2012, 11:21:48 am »

+1 Razorback1, appreciate the insight.  However, ASU did lose 7 starters on D from last year so I expect them to allow some big points.  I still feel confident in my bet but I would have definitely been a little more hesitant had I known that.  We will see how it goes!   

Hope it works out of ya! Thomas and Barner should run all day.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #645 on: August 29, 2012, 11:28:32 am »

Hope it works out of ya! Thomas and Barner should run all day.

Thanks! you betting any games this weekend?
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #646 on: August 29, 2012, 11:31:29 am »

Thanks! you betting any games this weekend?

Yeah. I'm taking Michigan St. -6.5 (now), and maybe WVU -25, still unsure about that one.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #647 on: August 29, 2012, 11:41:55 am »

Yeah. I'm taking Michigan St. -6.5 (now), and maybe WVU -25, still unsure about that one.

I bit on the WVU -25, also bit on the Over 65.  posted about it above.  What's your take on the Michigan State game, Im scared to bet anything involving boise state lol
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #648 on: August 29, 2012, 12:44:22 pm »

I bit on the WVU -25, also bit on the Over 65.  posted about it above.  What's your take on the Michigan State game, Im scared to bet anything involving boise state lol

Yeah, wouldn't bet against a Boise team from the past few years but this one isn't nearly as talented. Especially with them breaking in a new QB, I like this for an easy pick due to Michigan St.'s D and ground attack.
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daprospecta

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #649 on: August 29, 2012, 02:10:19 pm »

The two WVU bets were my first two (of three) bets for the weekend.  My last bet was taking Oregon to cover -34.5 (again, the spread is -35.5 but I bought 1 point to keep the spread under that 35 mark just in case). 

I know Oregon has a freshman starting at QB but they have one of the best running back tandems in the nation.  I expect a lot of dump screens and short passes, nothing too hard for the new QB.  With their up tempo offense, I dont think Arkansas States D keeps up.

Granted Arkansas State has the reigning sunbelt player of the year at QB, and they will be trying to establish an up-tempo offense with Malzahn there.  However, Arkansas State also lost two of their receivers recently and Oregon is used to going up against this type of offense in practice.  Overall, I just think there will be too much of a learning curve this early for the ASU guys to put up big points against Oregon.   

It sounds like most of you dont bet the big spreads and I completely understand.  Just wanted to give you my pics for the weekend and my reasons behind my pics.  Please le tme know if you have any input, would love to hear it!
Let's think about what you are asking of Oregon. You are asking them to beat a team that has a player of the year qb and offensive mastermind as a coach(say what you want but the guy can coach offense) to win by 5 touchdowns or more in a game. I'm sure Malz has spent the entire summer summer preparing for this one game and I'm also sure Oregon is overlooking it.  New qb for oregon and along with many other replacements.  Oregon will score but so will ASU. 
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