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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 329778 times)

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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10600 on: October 17, 2016, 07:03:17 pm »

I think the public is hammering Arkansas(maybe 80%) but the line either hasn't moved or swung the other way. What does that tell you?  Hogville won't like this, bit this isn't the slam dunk they think it is.

Auburn is elite , yes elite, up front. Maybe just slightly below bama. We struggle there. Plus, they run well....we've struggled there.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10601 on: October 17, 2016, 07:07:13 pm »

I think the public is hammering Arkansas(maybe 80%) but the line either hasn't moved or swung the other way. What does that tell you?  Hogville won't like this, bit this isn't the slam dunk they think it is.

Auburn is elite , yes elite, up front. Maybe just slightly below bama. We struggle there. Plus, they run well....we've struggled there.

A lot of close buddies hopped all over the points this morning...not a good sign either haha.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10602 on: October 17, 2016, 07:26:50 pm »

I don't care if the line is +20. I'm done betting Hog games this year. I think I'm 0-4 on the year anytime I've touched them or the total.
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Green_Lanternn

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10603 on: October 17, 2016, 07:38:10 pm »

Cards -7
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10604 on: October 17, 2016, 08:11:12 pm »

I don't care if the line is +20. I'm done betting Hog games this year. I think I'm 0-4 on the year anytime I've touched them or the total.

Yeah, me too. If I play them, it's a sure loss.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10605 on: October 17, 2016, 09:16:56 pm »

Was just told Lang is on jets +7 huge. If anyone else has his plays available before kick off help me out. My buddy "forgot" to text me the play but said it was released before kick
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10606 on: October 18, 2016, 08:05:59 am »

Was just told Lang is on jets +7 huge. If anyone else has his plays available before kick off help me out. My buddy "forgot" to text me the play but said it was released before kick

If true, be thankful you did not get that info or act on it.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10607 on: October 18, 2016, 08:47:51 am »

If true, be thankful you did not get that info or act on it.

Why not?  The dude is a loser. We want his plays to fade him.  Look at all the plays I've posted, maybe 8-9 and I think he's won 2?  Lol
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WooPig90

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10608 on: October 18, 2016, 08:59:08 am »

Was just told Lang is on jets +7 huge. If anyone else has his plays available before kick off help me out. My buddy "forgot" to text me the play but said it was released before kick

Lol wow this guy is definitely fade material. I got talked into taking the under and cards -7. Glad I did!
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WooPig90

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10609 on: October 18, 2016, 08:59:58 am »

I think the public is hammering Arkansas(maybe 80%) but the line either hasn't moved or swung the other way. What does that tell you?  Hogville won't like this, bit this isn't the slam dunk they think it is.

Auburn is elite , yes elite, up front. Maybe just slightly below bama. We struggle there. Plus, they run well....we've struggled there.

Up to +10 in my book now. I ended up taking the Hogs +10 vs Tcu and got the Hogs +10 vs ole miss 30 mins before kickoff
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10610 on: October 18, 2016, 10:52:07 am »

I don't care if the line is +20. I'm done betting Hog games this year. I think I'm 0-4 on the year anytime I've touched them or the total.

The 4 they didn't cover are La tech, A&M, Bama, and Alcorn st correct?  Alcorn st was way to high of a line to bet.  I was on the other 3 with you but also took all the other games ATS and ML TCU and Ole Miss so that helps. 

If you are going to bet the hogs, pick a small amount and just flat bet them every game.  It has proven under Bielema to make money, however I lay off the Alcorn st type games with those astronomical lines.  I will make my before season determined wager size on Arkansas at Auburn this weekend when I feel I can get the best line (my head is spinning on the line though at this point).  I may or may not play the ML though. 
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10611 on: October 18, 2016, 10:52:25 am »

Lang is on the Cubs ML today. 
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10612 on: October 18, 2016, 11:34:43 am »

Why not?  The dude is a loser. We want his plays to fade him.  Look at all the plays I've posted, maybe 8-9 and I think he's won 2?  Lol

sorry, did not think about that, just that he was on the jets but you didn't find out in time. No one in their right mind would have bet the jets even at +7 on the road in AZ.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10613 on: October 19, 2016, 09:31:58 am »

Here is what I've done so far (2 units each on):

Miami(OH) +5.5
Houston -21
Akron +3.5
Conn +3.5
Tex +3
BYU +7.5
GA So -13.5
Miami (FL) +7 (h)
Ore +3
Buff +21.5
NC -7.5
Miss St. -2.5
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10614 on: October 19, 2016, 09:42:49 am »

Hogs +10 smells like a trap, but it falls into some pretty nice trends that favor the Hogs. 
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10615 on: October 19, 2016, 09:46:53 am »

Hogs +10 smells like a trap, but it falls into some pretty nice trends that favor the Hogs. 

I dont play Hog games because it changes how I watch them. The 17th ranked team is a 10pt dog to a lower ranked team, even though it is on the road, looks like something to avoid regardless of who it is.
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WooPig90

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10616 on: October 19, 2016, 09:58:16 am »

Lang is on the Cubs ML today.

Lol this guy is super fade material for sure
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10617 on: October 19, 2016, 10:39:03 am »

Lang is on Blue Jays runline today for 20 dimes.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10618 on: October 19, 2016, 04:51:31 pm »

Adding Ags +18.5  1u
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10619 on: October 19, 2016, 05:13:33 pm »

One of the more interesting trends that I ran across has hit so far at 27-3 and is also a subset of a trend hitting at 72% with 78 occurrences.  This week, it likes:

BYU +7
Ore +3
Miss St. -3
GA So -14
Buff +21.5
NC -8.5

I'm not advocating that anyone play these.  I mainly wanted to post them so you can see if the trend holds up.  A LOT of the trends that I think I find turn out to be garbage.  Hoping this one pans out.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10620 on: October 19, 2016, 07:04:01 pm »

LOU -13/Bama -12 tease
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ChicoHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10621 on: October 19, 2016, 07:50:16 pm »

I jumped on the Hogs +9.5 plus played the money line at +290. 
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10622 on: October 20, 2016, 08:32:27 am »

Troy -8
Cal -3
UCF -3
TX +2.5
Ohio -3
Col +2
Tulsa -11
Hou -21
Ole Miss +6
Mizzu/mtsu un 70.5
msu/ky ov 53
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10623 on: October 20, 2016, 05:32:58 pm »

Lang on south Alabama +9 and free pick is Cubs ML. His cfb play is a 40 dimer
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10624 on: October 20, 2016, 05:33:03 pm »

Added 2 units each on:

Troy -7 (got it early in the week)
Syr +5
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Green_Lanternn

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10625 on: October 20, 2016, 06:04:10 pm »

Va Tech -5
Va Tech -3 (1h)
Va Tech/Miami Under 53
Va Tech/Miami under 27.5 (1h)
Byu +7.5 vs Boise state
Packers -7.5 vs Bears
Troy -9.5 vs south alabama
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10626 on: October 20, 2016, 06:38:13 pm »

Public all on the Packers, Troy, Miami and BYU. Not much line movement.

Took the Bears, VT, and South A  so far.  May look into B Stste for the late game. 
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10627 on: October 20, 2016, 09:24:16 pm »

I missed posting my 10/8 weekend because it was atrocious at 3-7-1 for 30%. Funny thing is though, my leans for that week hit 9-5-1 for 64%. For 10/15 weekend, I was a returned onside kick for a TD away from being a winner to finish 6-7 for 46%. Again, my leans out performed my picks going 8-7 for 53%. Gotta start paying trusting my leans a bit more.

10/8 Weekend:

Iowa +2.5...W
Bowling Green +13...W
UNLV +16...L
ULM -3...L
UNC +2...L
Northern Illinois +18...W
TAMU -7...Push
Buffalo +3...L
UCLA -8...L
Stanford -7...L
BC +19...L

2016 Record 29-36 45% Bankroll: $786

10/15 Weekend:

Ball St -10.5(hook)...W
Miami -7...L
Nebraska -3...W
Wake Forest +23...W
Mizzou v Florida u52...L
Charlotte +5...L
South Florida -20...L
Ohio State -11...L
Fresno St +17...W
UCF -3.5...L
New Mexico +14...W
Texas Tech +3...L
WMU -13...W

2016 Record: 35-43 45% Bankroll: $747

2 losing weeks after 3 up weeks. According to my sequence, I'm due for 3 winning weekends. Maybe I can pull one out this weekend. I can't wait until bowl season.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10628 on: October 21, 2016, 03:14:29 pm »

Lang is on over of USF and Temple 59.5 for 40 dimes.  Sucker won both his 40 dimer and free play last night, that makes it a winning streak for him so far.  He is planning a huge chase this weekend and upping his bets drastically after the weekend, if betting units that usually works out good for fading,.
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10629 on: October 21, 2016, 04:16:50 pm »

My plays this weekend

cal -2
wisc -4.5
ucf-4
okist/ks ov 61
ind/nw ov 53
nc -11
mem -3
hou -21
latech -17
ou -14
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10630 on: October 21, 2016, 08:11:23 pm »

Public pounded USF tonight and they are on Cal..   Reverse line movement on Temple and Oregon ..

Didn't get the bet in on Temple.   5units on the Ducks.  Will post the plays later tonight for tomorrow if i have time.  These reserve line games usually produce around 10-15 a week
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10631 on: October 21, 2016, 08:23:55 pm »

U Mass +21
Miami  Ohio +2
Louisville -19.5
Rutgers +19
Indiana +2.5
BAMA -17.5
MEMPHIS +1.5
TULANE +10.5
CHARLOTTE +10
AUBURN-10
SMU +21
NEW MEXICO STATE +14
ASU-8

All of these games are big % of the public on one team, but the line is moving in other directions.   

 I just starting following this trend.  Was in Vegas 2 weeks ago and this old man said this is how he bets for a long time.. Said he chases the big money. 

The record for the past 2 week is 18-8.  Would just watch tomorrow and see how it works out.  Will look into the NFL and post as well.  I will be betting these games around $25-$30 starting out.  IF they start hitting I may add more on the later games. 

Good luck team
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10632 on: October 21, 2016, 08:40:00 pm »

Above strategy is old
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10633 on: October 21, 2016, 08:50:26 pm »

CaL +2
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BigSexyHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10634 on: October 21, 2016, 09:11:36 pm »

Temple, Oregon and SDSU
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10635 on: October 21, 2016, 09:26:40 pm »

Above strategy is old

Most of the games above have 60% or higher being bet on one side, but the line is moving in the other directions.  Just typical reverse line movement .  Have watched it a for the past few years, just never put much interest into until the old guy was betting it the same in Vegas.   It's 5-1 this week so far
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ChicoHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10636 on: October 21, 2016, 09:57:00 pm »


Tonight took Cal money line +120

Hogs +10 Still don't get why this line is so high.  I think public is over evaluating Auburn had bye (so did Ole Miss before playing Hogs) and Miss st game. 
Hogs money line (it worked last weekend!) +290
Umass +21
Colorado +2
Syracuse +4.5
Syracuse money line +160
Minn -17
Mississippi +7.5
Iowa under 42.5
Houston over 62
Wyoming over 52.5
Utah +7
TCU +7
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mckinneyhog5

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10637 on: October 21, 2016, 10:11:09 pm »

Refs won't let Oregon win tonight...making sure of that.
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Green_Lanternn

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10638 on: October 21, 2016, 10:25:47 pm »

Took S. Florida L
Oregon -1
San Jose State +23.5
oregon and cal  under 90
Oregon and Cal under 48.5 (2h)
« Last Edit: October 22, 2016, 01:01:12 am by Green_Lanternn »
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10639 on: October 21, 2016, 10:39:56 pm »

Most of the games above have 60% or higher being bet on one side, but the line is moving in the other directions.  Just typical reverse line movement .  Have watched it a for the past few years, just never put much interest into until the old guy was betting it the same in Vegas.   It's 5-1 this week so far

I've said it before in here, you have no idea where the money really is going. Sportsbook are not disclosing that info fully and truthfully
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mckinneyhog5

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10640 on: October 21, 2016, 11:32:42 pm »

I've said it before in here, you have no idea where the money really is going. Sportsbook are not disclosing that info fully and truthfully
Plus when Vegas makes a line for a game they first give it to the heavy bettors to get a feel if their line is good or not. Then they adjust it and open betting to the public.  No one knows where the big money goes, well besides the casinos.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10641 on: October 21, 2016, 11:45:09 pm »

Plus when Vegas makes a line for a game they first give it to the heavy bettors to get a feel if their line is good or not. Then they adjust it and open betting to the public.  No one knows where the big money goes, well besides the casinos.

Exactly. Auburn would have gotten absolutely hammered at a one possession line, they had to make it a two possession line not to get teased and over exposed by teasers either, keep that in mind. They can put out a -10 line and reality is they think it is a -2 or -3 line but will get enough bets to even it out in their minds while limiting other exposures.

I really think auburn will be hammered based off of the bye week thought process.  I think you will see/feel/hear tomorrow the $100-$500 bettor hammer Arkansas and outside of the region of the game prolly be even on each side.
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mckinneyhog5

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10642 on: October 21, 2016, 11:53:42 pm »

Exactly. Auburn would have gotten absolutely hammered at a one possession line, they had to make it a two possession line not to get teased and over exposed by teasers either, keep that in mind. They can put out a -10 line and reality is they think it is a -2 or -3 line but will get enough bets to even it out in their minds while limiting other exposures.

I really think auburn will be hammered based off of the bye week thought process.  I think you will see/feel/hear tomorrow the $100-$500 bettor hammer Arkansas and outside of the region of the game prolly be even on each side.
I'm showing a 76/24 split with Arkansas receiving 76% of the money. What's even crazier is Arkansas is taking 97% of the money line. I don't like that at all. I never would bet against the hogs but this makes me feel very uneasy about this game.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10643 on: October 22, 2016, 07:55:16 am »

Everything in my being says to bet auburn hard, but I can't do it.

Iowa +4
Kansas state +2
Texas tech +14
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10644 on: October 22, 2016, 09:33:05 am »

I'm showing a 76/24 split with Arkansas receiving 76% of the money. What's even crazier is Arkansas is taking 97% of the money line. I don't like that at all. I never would bet against the hogs but this makes me feel very uneasy about this game.

That's because no one plays that big of a ML fav
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10645 on: October 22, 2016, 11:04:13 am »

Indiana +3
Rutgers +18
UL v NC St o66

Added:
SMU +23
Ball St -3
Mizzou -7
Bama -18
West Virginia -5
LSU -8
« Last Edit: October 22, 2016, 07:21:36 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10646 on: October 22, 2016, 11:06:53 am »

Lang is on Navy +2 for 150 dimes he says.
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mckinneyhog5

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10647 on: October 22, 2016, 11:10:10 am »

That's because no one plays that big of a ML fav
Well, Minnesota is is -18 but taking 82% of the money line at -1100 and Army is -17.5 and money line at -900 taking 89%.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10648 on: October 22, 2016, 11:11:46 am »

Got early games
Whisky
UCF
NcState
Indiana


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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10649 on: October 22, 2016, 11:44:02 am »

Well, Minnesota is is -18 but taking 82% of the money line at -1100 and Army is -17.5 and money line at -900 taking 89%.

I don't personally believe people are playing minn ML except for in parlays.
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