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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 326673 times)

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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9750 on: January 25, 2016, 08:29:42 am »

i was wrong... when i posted "5" that is what book was showing, i assumed that is where it opened (now i'm showing 4.5). it opened at 3/45.5.

i could make the argument--if it hits 5 again--to 'buy'. you would have nice positioning/hedging opportunity to work with, i am basing that off the fact we will see 3-3.5 again, which i think is inevitable.
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9751 on: January 25, 2016, 08:30:51 am »

Came back after 2 weeks off and had a decent showing. Went 9-3-1. Split the nfl games. 2-0 nba 6-2-1 college bball.

hitting at 70% i would take another 2 weeks off ;D
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9752 on: January 25, 2016, 08:35:48 am »

i was wrong... when i posted "5" that is what book was showing, i assumed that is where it opened (now i'm showing 4.5). it opened at 3/45.5.

i could make the argument--if it hits 5 again--to 'buy'. you would have nice positioning/hedging opportunity to work with, i am basing that off the fact we will see 3-3.5 again, which i think is inevitable.

Damn. Wish I could have found it at 3!  Would have unloaded and then looked at buying some back as the number climbs. Thing about the super bowl, recreational
Bettors that never bet pour money into it as well. 

I don't think we will see 3 again though
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9753 on: January 25, 2016, 09:01:09 am »

hitting at 70% i would take another 2 weeks off ;D

I probably should. There were just some really good home teams playing with decent lines. Iowa was not giving many at home against a hurting Purdue. Indiana was only around -9 oat home against Northwestern. Couple others were tasty. 
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9754 on: January 25, 2016, 09:09:59 am »

Guys, got a question. I can get pats -2.5 and denver at + 4.  Any reason not to max bet both of these? 

Personal feeling is Brady gets it done but giving manning points at home is something to consider. Also keep in mind the ref selection I think was mentioned here during the week

had i seen this, and disregarding the results (its east to say now)... i would have suggested getting on a teaser. you could have teased denver to +10 or pats to +3.5 both key numbers and a great value you had on your book. not a lotta folks out there had that opportunity. by the way--i hate teasers, but they have a place in the arsenal--when you have a good handicap and can swing a number off (or onto) a key number plus the hook in a really tight game--do it. either team teased with the under woulda been a great bet.

i loved the pats, but was not going to give up the full 3 points and i never saw anything but 3. i liked the under, but was a little scared b/c if the pats get the chance, they would hang as many as possible on them. so, looking at it from a 30,000ft view the only thing i was pretty confident in was the Denver team total... last week UP and i talked about it... (it was 21 at the time) and he knew how much i liked it. i didnt think there was anyway possible denver could put up 3 TD's... or 2 TDs and a few field goals. so with those two options being denvers only route to 21+ and assuming Denvers game plan (work the clock) i wasn't even sure if they would have enough time to score 21+. so what did i do? hammer the Denver U20.5. i did it for double my normal bet--and yes, that 2pt conversion was no fun to watch. should not have been close but those dang turnovers...

this was my first time this year to play a team total... but i felt it fit the situation better than any other bet.
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9755 on: January 25, 2016, 09:14:08 am »

Damn. Wish I could have found it at 3!  Would have unloaded and then looked at buying some back as the number climbs. Thing about the super bowl, recreational
Bettors that never bet pour money into it as well. 

I don't think we will see 3 again though

i am with you on 3... but i have a feeling 3.5 will be back. hell, since the carolina game was over... mine opened at 3, jumped to 5, then down to 4 (all last night before i went to bed) and is at 4.5 this morning. so no telling.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9756 on: January 25, 2016, 10:38:48 am »

had i seen this, and disregarding the results (its east to say now)... i would have suggested getting on a teaser. you could have teased denver to +10 or pats to +3.5 both key numbers and a great value you had on your book. not a lotta folks out there had that opportunity. by the way--i hate teasers, but they have a place in the arsenal--when you have a good handicap and can swing a number off (or onto) a key number plus the hook in a really tight game--do it. either team teased with the under woulda been a great bet.

i loved the pats, but was not going to give up the full 3 points and i never saw anything but 3. i liked the under, but was a little scared b/c if the pats get the chance, they would hang as many as possible on them. so, looking at it from a 30,000ft view the only thing i was pretty confident in was the Denver team total... last week UP and i talked about it... (it was 21 at the time) and he knew how much i liked it. i didnt think there was anyway possible denver could put up 3 TD's... or 2 TDs and a few field goals. so with those two options being denvers only route to 21+ and assuming Denvers game plan (work the clock) i wasn't even sure if they would have enough time to score 21+. so what did i do? hammer the Denver U20.5. i did it for double my normal bet--and yes, that 2pt conversion was no fun to watch. should not have been close but those dang turnovers...

this was my first time this year to play a team total... but i felt it fit the situation better than any other bet.

Was two different books and both at -110, I thought real hard about it.  I just felt though giving Manning points at home was the play. 

Given Mannings inability to win games by TD scores, a tease of +3 carolina and +11 Bronco's will bring in A LOT of plays.  I personally don't like teasers but have played them, winning sparingly. I really hate teasing the same game but they have a great history of cashing in Brady vs Rex Ryan games (Keep that in mind next year).

I really like playing props in the Super Bowls and not so much sides and totals.  For instance last year off memory I did not pick a side or a total.  I played 5 props and went 4/5. 

Some to consider before I even know what they will be.

O # of FG's
Keuchely tackles over
Stewart receptions over -(Panthers RB) *Yesterday he was 2 +180 and he had exactly 2.
Funches Receptions Over- Been a lot of value in him.  For some reason vegas doesn't think he will ever get touches.  He has hovered around the 1.5-2 catches.  Yesterday was 2 +130 and he got 2.  Talib and co will try to take away the leading receivers (Ginn, Brown, Olsen) leaving Funchess and Stewart some good opportunities I believe.   
Wolfe (depending on his health) tackles/sacks Over

There will be more but those are just some that I think will be valuable. 

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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9757 on: January 25, 2016, 11:30:23 am »

Was two different books and both at -110, I thought real hard about it.  I just felt though giving Manning points at home was the play. 

Given Mannings inability to win games by TD scores, a tease of +3 carolina and +11 Bronco's will bring in A LOT of plays.  I personally don't like teasers but have played them, winning sparingly. I really hate teasing the same game but they have a great history of cashing in Brady vs Rex Ryan games (Keep that in mind next year).

I really like playing props in the Super Bowls and not so much sides and totals.  For instance last year off memory I did not pick a side or a total.  I played 5 props and went 4/5. 

Some to consider before I even know what they will be.

O # of FG's
Keuchely tackles over
Stewart receptions over -(Panthers RB) *Yesterday he was 2 +180 and he had exactly 2.
Funches Receptions Over- Been a lot of value in him.  For some reason vegas doesn't think he will ever get touches.  He has hovered around the 1.5-2 catches.  Yesterday was 2 +130 and he got 2.  Talib and co will try to take away the leading receivers (Ginn, Brown, Olsen) leaving Funchess and Stewart some good opportunities I believe.   
Wolfe (depending on his health) tackles/sacks Over

There will be more but those are just some that I think will be valuable. 

totally agree... and manning at home with the better d was good fundamental cappin' which is why i think a teaser in that situation was a good idea in theory. you may have felt different but i like the under at 45the under, woulda love it at 51. with way, nice job on the props.

there was only one prop i was planning on betting and it was P. Manning no interceptions +190 and i completely forgot about it until it was too late...
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9758 on: January 25, 2016, 12:40:12 pm »

totally agree... and manning at home with the better d was good fundamental cappin' which is why i think a teaser in that situation was a good idea in theory. you may have felt different but i like the under at 45the under, woulda love it at 51. with way, nice job on the props.

there was only one prop i was planning on betting and it was P. Manning no interceptions +190 and i completely forgot about it until it was too late...

I bet Manning no interceptions in SB will be +2XX  Get all of that you want.  haha.  I wouldn't touch it.  I'd rather take  Keuchly pick six +XXX than Manning no INT
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9759 on: January 25, 2016, 05:30:00 pm »

I'm think two unders tonight... What y'all have??

Cavs/Minny U203.5... Cavs new coach trying to play fast, don't see that whole transition going real good and fatigue and bad shots being a big factor.

Miami/Duke U152.5, no way Miami wants to get into a running game with Duke and they just might slow the blue devils down... I looked off and on every chance I got today and this is all I could find that tripped my trigger.

I'm in Biloxi by the way... Anything I need to check out while I'm down here lemme know, staying at IP.
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9760 on: January 25, 2016, 05:56:13 pm »

36-20 YTD

Manhattan +4.5
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9761 on: January 25, 2016, 06:01:15 pm »

I'm think two unders tonight... What y'all have??

Cavs/Minny U203.5... Cavs new coach trying to play fast, don't see that whole transition going real good and fatigue and bad shots being a big factor.

Miami/Duke U152.5, no way Miami wants to get into a running game with Duke and they just might slow the blue devils down... I looked off and on every chance I got today and this is all I could find that tripped my trigger.

I'm in Biloxi by the way... Anything I need to check out while I'm down here lemme know, staying at IP.
I was there couple weeks ago. Half shell oyster house...easily the best seafood/Cajun style food I've had in my entire life.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9762 on: January 25, 2016, 09:22:35 pm »

I'm think two unders tonight... What y'all have??

Cavs/Minny U203.5... Cavs new coach trying to play fast, don't see that whole transition going real good and fatigue and bad shots being a big factor.

Miami/Duke U152.5, no way Miami wants to get into a running game with Duke and they just might slow the blue devils down... I looked off and on every chance I got today and this is all I could find that tripped my trigger.

I'm in Biloxi by the way... Anything I need to check out while I'm down here lemme know, staying at IP.

How often you make it down there?  I am down there a good bit for work.  Stay at the IP and Hard rock.  Hardrock likes to give me the pent house during the week.  Talk about one heck of a room.  They are dead adn love my comps.
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9763 on: January 26, 2016, 08:17:52 am »

I'm think two unders tonight... What y'all have??

Cavs/Minny U203.5... Cavs new coach trying to play fast, don't see that whole transition going real good and fatigue and bad shots being a big factor.

Miami/Duke U152.5, no way Miami wants to get into a running game with Duke and they just might slow the blue devils down... I looked off and on every chance I got today and this is all I could find that tripped my trigger.

I'm in Biloxi by the way... Anything I need to check out while I'm down here lemme know, staying at IP.

I was on the under in the Duke game too, got it at 153.5, checked in with about 7 mns left and they had just got to 100. Could not believe they got to within 3 pts of it. Had Clev at -11, I am done betting them, lost my last 6 times I played them.
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9764 on: January 26, 2016, 11:16:06 am »

How often you make it down there?  I am down there a good bit for work.  Stay at the IP and Hard rock.  Hardrock likes to give me the pent house during the week.  Talk about one heck of a room.  They are dead adn love my comps.

Usually 2 times a year... Black jacktables got me last night...

Cavs got gassed and didn't play defense, bad deal for Cavs backers and my under and another split night, gettin' juiced to death.

I'm lookin at Kent St and the over in the Thunder/Knicks game... What are you fellas on?
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9765 on: January 26, 2016, 11:54:51 am »

Usually 2 times a year... Black jacktables got me last night...

Cavs got gassed and didn't play defense, bad deal for Cavs backers and my under and another split night, gettin' juiced to death.

I'm lookin at Kent St and the over in the Thunder/Knicks game... What are you fellas on?

I like the under at 140.5 in the VA/Wf game. Creighton+3.5 at Georgetown. Akron -5.5 at home against NIU. NBA Phoenix +3 at Phil and Dal -8 at Lakers

 
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9766 on: January 26, 2016, 04:39:17 pm »

36-20 YTD

Wisconsin +2

Good luck guys
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9767 on: January 26, 2016, 05:24:11 pm »

South Carolina -8.5
Bowling Green +4.5
Kent St -5.5
Illinois st -9
Fresno -7
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9768 on: January 26, 2016, 05:48:43 pm »

Toledo +8 bought .5
Usc -8 bought .5

Tailing Toledo U 157
Niagra over 134
Raptors -8 bought .5


Depending on these plays I may play portland U 214.5
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9769 on: January 26, 2016, 07:41:04 pm »

I tailed Wisky plus the two below and added Central Florida, wanted a piece of LSU but not at 8.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9770 on: January 26, 2016, 08:21:03 pm »

That first +8 was suppose to be wake forrest, completely F'd that up on typing it.  Sorry guys. Let's go raptors hopefully.
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Big Boi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9771 on: January 26, 2016, 09:39:18 pm »

A&M -3.5?
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9772 on: January 26, 2016, 10:18:39 pm »

A&M -3.5?

Sportsbook.ag has Arkansas +4. I'm not sure if I'll play this game or not, but it does check in as one of my favorite angles to bet. I love conference games where there was a big blowout in the previous meeting. Also, A&M has a huge game Saturday against Iowa State so there's a possibility they come out a little flat against Arkansas, given the upcoming schedule and fact that that already beat us by 30. I imagine a lot of points to be scored in tomorrow's game.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9773 on: January 27, 2016, 12:44:08 am »

5-0 tonight . Much needed
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9774 on: January 27, 2016, 02:52:38 am »

5-0 tonight . Much needed

Wow....very nice!!
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9775 on: January 27, 2016, 07:36:27 am »

5-0 tonight . Much needed

Nice job pigs!  5-1 myself 

Nice call on that wisky play user. 
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9776 on: January 27, 2016, 08:01:53 am »

I like the under at 140.5 in the VA/Wf game. Creighton+3.5 at Georgetown. Akron -5.5 at home against NIU. NBA Phoenix +3 at Phil and Dal -8 at Lakers

 

Unreal, UVA/WF score 11 points in last 14 seconds to get to 143, the Philly and the Lakers both decide to play really good on the same night.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9777 on: January 27, 2016, 08:27:52 am »

You guys are slaying it at basketball.  I don't follow bball that closely but have been silently tailing the hot hands for very small plays.  Thanks for sharing!  I'm refining the college football spreadsheets and will data-mine the crap out of them over the next several months so hope to be able to return the favor in the Fall.
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9778 on: January 27, 2016, 09:59:51 am »

Nice job pigs!  5-1 myself 

Nice call on that wisky play user. 

Great night for you. Let's have more of these!
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9779 on: January 27, 2016, 12:12:56 pm »

tonight NCAA Utah -6, Seton Hall -16, NBA Hawks -4
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9780 on: January 27, 2016, 12:31:35 pm »

Tailing,

Utah over 137.5
St Joseph under 154
Utah Jazz over 191.

Wanted to share these since I saw them early.
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9781 on: January 27, 2016, 02:28:39 pm »

37-20 YTD

Murray State -1
Houston +1
Pitt +2
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9782 on: January 27, 2016, 04:02:56 pm »

Va tech +10
Sjsu +12
Utah -7
Seton Hall -16
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9783 on: January 27, 2016, 05:52:35 pm »

Added

Suns +18
Vtech +10
St. lousi +17 bought .5
Murray st -1 bought .5
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9784 on: January 27, 2016, 10:06:38 pm »

3-0 right now...looking for the utes to get me 9 in a row
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9785 on: January 27, 2016, 10:29:33 pm »

3-0 right now...looking for the utes to get me 9 in a row

On fire!! Good luck
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9786 on: January 27, 2016, 11:48:59 pm »

37-20 YTD

Murray State -1
Houston +1
Pitt +2

2-1 tonight. 39-21 on the year.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9787 on: January 28, 2016, 12:22:16 am »

Utes hit....4-0 night following a 5-0 night.

Love that this thread is still going. Usually, it dies around December. But a couple of new guys have come forward and made us step our games up.
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9788 on: January 28, 2016, 08:31:32 am »

Utes hit....4-0 night following a 5-0 night.

Love that this thread is still going. Usually, it dies around December. But a couple of new guys have come forward and made us step our games up.

SPAL on fire. good werk.

good night for me, also. had the hogs ML and timberwolves team total... casino (blackjack) didn't treat me to well ;D

onward.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9789 on: January 28, 2016, 08:42:23 am »

Between Sir's 9-0 run and User's 65% YTD, I picked the right time to peak back in here.  Great job guys!
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9790 on: January 28, 2016, 04:30:55 pm »

Syracuse -2
Marshall -1
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9791 on: January 28, 2016, 05:02:10 pm »

Utes hit....4-0 night following a 5-0 night.

Love that this thread is still going. Usually, it dies around December. But a couple of new guys have come forward and made us step our games up.

Hell of a good job Sir
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9792 on: January 28, 2016, 05:07:55 pm »

im on uconn tonight, prolly tail that cuse pick, i like it. best of luck fellas.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9793 on: January 28, 2016, 05:14:08 pm »

Syracuse -2
Northwestern +7
Oregon St +5
William and Mary -6.5
Towson St -3
Monmouth -10
Idaho -4.5
USC -11
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Big Boi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9794 on: January 28, 2016, 05:20:39 pm »

Western Kentucky +4

LMU vs BYU U 160.5
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9795 on: January 28, 2016, 05:52:08 pm »

Mich st -6

Tailing:
Cuse -2
Drexel O 125
Marshal -1.5
UALR O 136
Texas state +12
Troy U 155
Richmond +5


If you want a good basketball game to watch tonight I really think Maryland and Iowa will be as good of a college game we can see in todays game.  Really like the over and want to like Maryland but not sure I'll play anything on it, if I do it iwll be the over. 

Might take Arizona later tonight depending on how these plays go. 
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9796 on: January 28, 2016, 05:56:59 pm »

Took the Over in the Maryland game. 

Like Memphis -4 and Knicks +11 (buying half a point there), but have not decided yet on playing those.  Don't like having this many plays going in basketball at once.  Really took a beating earlier in the season picking out this many games at once. 
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9797 on: January 28, 2016, 07:32:20 pm »

Damn!  Someone put lids on the baskets at half time in the maryland/iowa game.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9798 on: January 28, 2016, 07:48:12 pm »

2-0 so far....11 in a row.
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9799 on: January 28, 2016, 07:50:29 pm »

Syracuse -2
Marshall -1

2-0. 41-21 season. Let's keep it going.
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