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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 342719 times)

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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9650 on: January 18, 2016, 08:10:30 pm »

the 3 chauncy collins missed was the kiss of death, average team under pressure usually doesnt work. i played the dang thing at 3.5, which was very stupid.

onward
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9651 on: January 18, 2016, 10:25:31 pm »

Ouch what a brutal night. Duke had no chance. Tcu had a 1 point lead with 2 minutes left and somehow lost by 7. NC Central was up 1 with 5 seconds left and shooting free throws and lost the game. I love gambling...

27-14 year to date
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9652 on: January 19, 2016, 07:22:19 am »

Yup, glad I didn't play Cavs! I would have been on the over also, so would just been juiceeeee

"Kevin Love is 14 of 40 in seven halves against the Warriors & Spurs & Thunder this season."  Courtesy of Twitter

Here is one on my radar screen for today.... Clemson catching 10 vs UVA with a total of 123... Clemson is getting nearly 10% of the points expected to be scored... Hmmmmmm

Clemson came roaring out of the gate in-conf and Virginia has been a little sluggish, not sure where to go, but I find the line/total combo vera vera interestin'
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9653 on: January 19, 2016, 01:00:38 pm »

I got a piece of South Carolina -1, key player out and line didn't budge.

I also invested in UNC 6/1 to win it all... Coulda got it 8/1 or better but I was a procrastinating loser.
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9654 on: January 19, 2016, 02:12:54 pm »

Let's see if we can get back on track tonight.

27-14 season

Texas A&M -6.5
Houston +13.5
St. Bonnie +2
Northern Kentucky +13.5
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9655 on: January 19, 2016, 04:26:05 pm »

Tailing user on all but St Bonnie.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9656 on: January 19, 2016, 04:48:18 pm »

Didn't A&M have a player arrest last night?  Did that alter the line at all?
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9657 on: January 19, 2016, 05:05:51 pm »

Let's see if we can get back on track tonight.

27-14 season

Texas A&M -6
Houston +13.5
St. Bonnie +3
Northern Kentucky +13.5

I actually got slightly better lines on sportsbook on st. Bonnie and a&m waiting til last minute so I updated it here.
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9658 on: January 19, 2016, 05:24:11 pm »

Let's see if we can get back on track tonight.

27-14 season

Texas A&M -6.5
Houston +13.5
St. Bonnie +2
Northern Kentucky +13.5

I looked at a&m game...lsu has tons of talent coming to college station, but have been a disappointment. sans the whippin' they gave georgia aggies have (only) won their last 3 (miss st/12-2, tenn/13-2, florida/10-6) by a total of 8 points... is that an indication of what we get tonight? i don't know... lsu won at vandy and you will see a&m play with a similar style, not sure what i am gonna do here.

Didn't A&M have a player arrest last night?  Did that alter the line at all?

if so I missed it...
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9659 on: January 19, 2016, 05:36:14 pm »

gut play.. how bout the pacers -6 tonight... phoenix cant score, indy will try to limit it even more... indy off a 3 game (pitiful) performance... giving up 129, 118, and 103... the only time all season they did worse was opener against the bucks 12/31. they havnt played back to back since 1/12-13th. I expect a beat down suns team to be just that--beat down--and the pacers looking to bounce back and play some defense.
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9660 on: January 19, 2016, 06:43:34 pm »

Tailing user on all but St Bonnie.

Too bad you couldn't talk me out of that one! Lol. Dayton went on a 19-0 run. At least I can turn this one off early and not sweat it out lol.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9661 on: January 19, 2016, 07:28:21 pm »

May mean nothing but here it is.

http://www.kbtx.com/content/news/AM-police-arrest-basketball-player-for-alleged-drinking-and-driving-365657261.html

I also love the pacers and think it should be double digits, but it's not which scares me
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9662 on: January 20, 2016, 07:08:08 am »

Indiana Pacers last 3 seconds (mainly at the hands of a Lavoy Allen turnover) cost me a 3-0 Tuesday sweep (pacers -6). Sigh.

0.0   End of Game   97-94
0.0   End of the 4th Quarter   97-94
0.0   PHX - Alex Len makes layup   97-94
2.0   IND - C.J. Miles enters the game for Lavoy Allen   97-92
2.0   PHX - Archie Goodwin enters the game for Tyson Chandler   97-92
2.0   PHX - Suns 20 Sec. timeout   97-92
2.0   IND - Monta Ellis makes free throw 2 of 2   97-92
2.0   PHX - Tyson Chandler enters the game for Archie Goodwin   96-92
2.0   IND - Monta Ellis makes free throw 1 of 2   96-92
2.0   PHX - Archie Goodwin personal foul (Monta Ellis draws the foul)   95-92
3.0   PHX - Brandon Knight makes 23-foot three point jumper   95-92
9.0   IND - Lavoy Allen bad pass   95-89


Little tidbit I saw yesterday: Through 153 pass attempts at home this season, Peyton Manning has only one TD toss, and eight interceptions.

Onward.
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9663 on: January 20, 2016, 11:10:35 am »

I'm gonna get me some West Virginia -11.5 tonight at home playing the Longhorns. WVU are battle tested (already played Kansas and Oklahoma) and Texas in conf record looks good, until you really look at it. and this is only their 3rd conf road game. West Virginia will be sharp and ready to play coming off 4 days rest.

Want some matchup info user pick??? WVU has 10 players avg 15 mins or more/game--Texas doesn't have the depth and fatigue will be a factor.

I'll be fading Texas in Lawrence on Saturday also. 
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MS_HogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9664 on: January 20, 2016, 12:21:20 pm »



Little tidbit I saw yesterday: Through 153 pass attempts at home this season, Peyton Manning has only one TD toss, and eight interceptions.

 

Am I the only one that doesn't see any way the Broncos can keep this game close without some type of special teams magic
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9665 on: January 20, 2016, 12:55:31 pm »

It wouldn't surprise me to see a WVU blow out. I actually made a small bet on WVU to win the title at 30/1 simply because I love watching them play. It's the true "40 minutes of hell." However, I'm still not sure if I will play them tonight. WVU leads the country in steals, turnover percentage, and defensive efficiency. At times this year, they have struggled against the spread against teams that will play a slower pace and an ability to take care of the ball. Texas is ranked first in the conference in not allowing turnovers and they will slow the tempo down some. Texas has also played better the last couple of times out and I think Shaka Smart does a great job of getting a team up to play. I'm still on the fence with this one.
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9666 on: January 20, 2016, 12:59:53 pm »

Am I the only one that doesn't see any way the Broncos can keep this game close without some type of special teams magic

Agreed. My problem is EVERYONE I KNOW is all over NE... That's always a red flag for me.
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9667 on: January 20, 2016, 02:53:32 pm »

Texas is ranked first in the conference in not allowing turnovers and they will slow the tempo down some. Texas has also played better the last couple of times out and I think Shaka Smart does a great job of getting a team up to play. I'm still on the fence with this one.

Agree with your assessment overall, just want to point out you are using Texas' recent success and it is against lesser competition. Also, Shaka DOES NOT want to slow it down--he is not coaching players he recruited... They are bigger so he TRIES to slow it down.
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9668 on: January 20, 2016, 03:12:14 pm »

Agree with your assessment overall, just want to point out you are using Texas' recent success and it is against lesser competition. Also, Shaka DOES NOT want to slow it down--he is not coaching players he recruited... They are bigger so he TRIES to slow it down.

Iowa State is a pretty good team! Texas is coming off a win against Oklahoma
State who took Kansas to the woodshed last night. I wouldn't be surprised with any outcome of tonight's game. I'll definitely be cheering for you though!
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9669 on: January 20, 2016, 03:12:55 pm »

Looks like I will only have one play for tonight

1/20

30-15 season to date

UCLA +2.5
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9670 on: January 20, 2016, 03:45:57 pm »

Iowa State is a pretty good team! Texas is coming off a win against Oklahoma
State who took Kansas to the woodshed last night. I wouldn't be surprised with any outcome of tonight's game. I'll definitely be cheering for you though!

All good points, did you notice what WVU did to the Ok St?

I took a piece of the over also...
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9671 on: January 20, 2016, 03:49:33 pm »

Colorado St. -4
Va tech. +13
Seton Hall +8
Fl. State +10
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 10:05:25 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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campushog23

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9672 on: January 20, 2016, 04:02:43 pm »

NBA:
Bulls +7.5
NCAAB:
Marquette -8
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9673 on: January 20, 2016, 04:05:28 pm »

I'm adding Nebraska +15.5
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 05:07:57 pm by userpick »
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9674 on: January 20, 2016, 04:52:58 pm »

best of luck boys, I am on 4 games tonight.... well 3 games/4 bets and will prob have to add UP's UCLA pick... little heavy for a Wednesday night ;D
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9675 on: January 20, 2016, 05:03:02 pm »

Adding Houston Rockets -3
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9676 on: January 20, 2016, 05:56:16 pm »

Detroit +3.5
Clev -13
GOlden st -6
76'ers (ehhhhhhhh) +7

UNC/WF Under 167
WVu -12

Edit:
GS 3 units
Clev 2 units
All other 1
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9677 on: January 20, 2016, 10:16:01 pm »

I'm following UP on UCLA +2.5


2-1-1 NCAA
0-1 NBA
Should have been 3-1
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9678 on: January 20, 2016, 10:40:03 pm »

4-1-1 today

And 1-1-1 on 2h plays that didn't get posted.
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9679 on: January 20, 2016, 11:21:54 pm »

4-1-1 today

And 1-1-1 on 2h plays that didn't get posted.

Nice day
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9680 on: January 21, 2016, 12:18:00 am »

2-0 tonight.

32-15 on the season. Onto tomorrow...
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9681 on: January 21, 2016, 09:03:14 am »

I did tail UCLA and glad I did... 3-2 for me. been rough few weeks.. i ended up tossing in that total along with my wvu pick, or it would have been a nice evening. I am getting juiced to death. sigh.

WVU last night:
19-61 from the floor and thats only bc they got hot-ish late;
3-21 from the 3pt line;
8-23 from the free throw line.

its a wonder it was as close as it was.

onward
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9682 on: January 21, 2016, 09:06:16 am »

I'm adding Nebraska +15.5

pick of the night
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9683 on: January 21, 2016, 10:03:40 am »

I don't know the stat or record, but look at the recent clip (maybe 2-3 weeks?) that the top teams are losing games, barely winning, or not even coming close to covering against crappy teams. 

Vegas is either REALLY off or intentionally baiting the public hardcore.  There was a ton of value early in Mich st lines, I road that train hard and heavy early.  Now you almost have to fade them for some reason, but we know tom izzo will right that ship.  Butler was a cash cow early and now they can't buy a bucket in key moments.  As much as I hate to say it, especially today, Arkansas has been the recent cash cow.  They opened as a favorite against Kentucky if I'm not mistaken.  The money poured in on UK, but what does that tell you that Vegas saw Arkansas as a fav tonight?

Lets keep the money cashing guys!  I know I could use a good week in basketball
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9684 on: January 21, 2016, 10:08:01 am »

Copy/Paste Tidbit via Mike and Mike:

Pats 15-0 in playoffs when winning turnover battle;  Broncos have worst TO margin of any team that made playoffs

 -NE has lost 8 playoff games, in 7 of them it lost time of possession margin; Denver had a low TOP margin this year

 -NE’s average starting FP in its playoff losses is bad; Broncs are ranked for starting field position about 26th on offense, 30th on defense if I remember right.
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9685 on: January 21, 2016, 10:33:49 am »

I don't know the stat or record, but look at the recent clip (maybe 2-3 weeks?) that the top teams are losing games, barely winning, or not even coming close to covering against crappy teams. 

Vegas is either REALLY off or intentionally baiting the public hardcore.  There was a ton of value early in Mich st lines, I road that train hard and heavy early.  Now you almost have to fade them for some reason, but we know tom izzo will right that ship.  Butler was a cash cow early and now they can't buy a bucket in key moments.  As much as I hate to say it, especially today, Arkansas has been the recent cash cow.  They opened as a favorite against Kentucky if I'm not mistaken.  The money poured in on UK, but what does that tell you that Vegas saw Arkansas as a fav tonight?

Lets keep the money cashing guys!  I know I could use a good week in basketball

UK opened at -1 and I would guess sharps hit it hard early and others have followed. vig is holding steady at -105 thru today so I am guessing it stays at 2.5 or trickles back down with buyback. just guessing.

one way to approach a game like this (for me) is to think the common fellas out there recreationally scanning through lines see UK -1 (or even -2.5) and think of Kentucky in the past--not the Kentucky we may see tonight. UP has some great stats BTW... and slide their monies across the table for Kentucky tickets, esp with early line move thinking they are following sharps. the really smart people can predict the market place and take advantage of it... even if they have zero conviction for that number. I am always amazed at how many people out there will be holding -1 and +3 tickets (either by holding out for 3 or buying the hook)

scores and odds:
01/20/2016 5:38 PM EST KENTUCKY -1  154.5   
01/20/2016 5:41 PM EST KENTUCKY -1.5 -15   
01/20/2016 7:23 PM EST   off off
01/20/2016 10:32 PM EST KENTUCKY -2 -15   
01/20/2016 10:56 PM EST KENTUCKY -2 -01   
01/20/2016 10:59 PM EST KENTUCKY -1.5     
01/21/2016 12:17 AM EST KENTUCKY -2     
01/21/2016 12:50 AM EST KENTUCKY -2 -16   
01/21/2016 1:11 AM EST KENTUCKY -2 -18   
01/21/2016 1:14 AM EST KENTUCKY -2 -15   
01/21/2016 5:11 AM EST KENTUCKY -2.5     
01/21/2016 5:38 AM EST KENTUCKY -2.5 -05   
01/21/2016 6:41 AM EST KENTUCKY -2.5 -07   
01/21/2016 6:44 AM EST KENTUCKY -2.5     
01/21/2016 10:53 AM EST KENTUCKY -2.5 -05   
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9686 on: January 21, 2016, 10:59:51 am »

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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9687 on: January 21, 2016, 11:25:13 am »

I show Arkansas opened as -1.5. 

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

they at +3 on my book and UP can snag em at +3.5 right now...
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9688 on: January 21, 2016, 11:33:49 am »

I haven't looked at the line movement. Sportsbook.ag currently has Arkansas +3.5
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MS_HogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9689 on: January 21, 2016, 11:40:33 am »

Copy/Paste Tidbit via Mike and Mike:

Pats 15-0 in playoffs when winning turnover battle;  Broncos have worst TO margin of any team that made playoffs

 -NE has lost 8 playoff games, in 7 of them it lost time of possession margin; Denver had a low TOP margin this year

 -NE’s average starting FP in its playoff losses is bad; Broncs are ranked for starting field position about 26th on offense, 30th on defense if I remember right.

Thought you might like this. @jeffphowe: Broncos are 7-0 in Hochuli games since 2000, 6-0 since 2008.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9690 on: January 21, 2016, 12:12:52 pm »

Thought you might like this. @jeffphowe: Broncos are 7-0 in Hochuli games since 2000, 6-0 since 2008.

Any way to find out what Peyton and Manning are though?
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9691 on: January 21, 2016, 12:14:13 pm »

Found it myself. 

Peyton is 14-2
Brady is 8-5
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MS_HogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9692 on: January 21, 2016, 12:19:11 pm »

Found it myself. 

Peyton is 14-2
Brady is 8-5

crazy...right
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gotyacovered

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9693 on: January 21, 2016, 01:04:43 pm »

am I the only one who likes the pats and the cards?

pats... combo of brady/belichick love and a peyton manning/Denver offense fade... Denver off got great field position all game against a steelers D that had been on the road 4 straight weeks. manning arm strength is hard to watch... his play calling is great, but doesn't matter if he can pull off all the throws in his arsenal. he has 153 reg season pass attempts at home this season and only one touchdown and 8 interceptions.

I saw (in the seattle Carolina game) what I thought to be a well called second half by the panthers staff in the 2nd half and poor execution. the tv and radio folks have talked a lot about poor (conservative) play calling... I think it was more execution... and here is a red flag (for me):

“There was a lot of guys playing with their butts tight. Coaches with their butts tight. At one point, the fans and myself with butts tight, too. But you have to find ways to get your groove back going, and we need a little bit more of that next Sunday.” -Cam Newton

in order to get something back, you must lose it in the first place... in that 2nd half they feel as though they lost something. one thing i have learned about people in my 37 years--perception is reality. will the panthers open up against the cards tight? will it be enough to make them play tight opening kick to the end of the game???
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9694 on: January 21, 2016, 01:47:10 pm »

I am all over Carolina.  I have ridden that bus since early this season and it has had tremendous value. 
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MS_HogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9695 on: January 21, 2016, 01:52:47 pm »

am I the only one who likes the pats and the cards?

pats... combo of brady/belichick love and a peyton manning/Denver offense fade... Denver off got great field position all game against a steelers D that had been on the road 4 straight weeks. manning arm strength is hard to watch... his play calling is great, but doesn't matter if he can pull off all the throws in his arsenal. he has 153 reg season pass attempts at home this season and only one touchdown and 8 interceptions.

I saw (in the seattle Carolina game) what I thought to be a well called second half by the panthers staff in the 2nd half and poor execution. the tv and radio folks have talked a lot about poor (conservative) play calling... I think it was more execution... and here is a red flag (for me):

“There was a lot of guys playing with their butts tight. Coaches with their butts tight. At one point, the fans and myself with butts tight, too. But you have to find ways to get your groove back going, and we need a little bit more of that next Sunday.” -Cam Newton

in order to get something back, you must lose it in the first place... in that 2nd half they feel as though they lost something. one thing i have learned about people in my 37 years--perception is reality. will the panthers open up against the cards tight? will it be enough to make them play tight opening kick to the end of the game???

I like the Pats SO MUCH that I might play the Broncos.
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userpick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9696 on: January 21, 2016, 01:58:04 pm »

I'm gonna try to do a small write up(to make me feel better about my pick) if I can get time but long story short I'm playing Arkansas +3.5 tonight. Also, taking Gonzaga +5. Maybe one or two more.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9697 on: January 21, 2016, 02:05:51 pm »

I'm on Arkansas as well.  I will be playing it as late as possible because I think the public will hammer UK.  Vegas tipped their hand when coming out with -1.5 I believe.  I'm hoping to +4 or better.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9698 on: January 21, 2016, 02:45:44 pm »

Ohio state +12
Elon +8.5
Georgia St. -5
Ualr o118
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 05:22:01 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9699 on: January 21, 2016, 02:46:16 pm »

I love the zags UP....I may play it as well.
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