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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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jkstock04

Quote from: DadVader1 on November 05, 2012, 02:08:53 pm
Well said.  That is the approach I take.  I analyzed the games for this weekend, picked a few games that I thought were my best plays, and the Hog game was one of them (and, yes, it had to overcome the additional hurdle of me generally not wanting to bet against them).  Here are a few of the factors that brought the game to the top of my list:

(1) general gut feeling after watching both teams play - lean SC
(2) general gut feeling about which of the SEC lines for the week looked a bit off - lean SC
(3) SC (No. 5 scoring O) v. Ark (no. 11 scoring D)(all stats are SEC Only) - lean SC
(4) Ark missing another LB from an already weak D - weak lean SC
(5) Ark secondary's ability to improve Opponent's passing game - lean SC
(6) Spurrier at home vs. JLS on the road - strong lean SC
(7) SC (No. 1 in sacks) & Clowney vs. Tyler getting hit repeatedly by Tulsa - strong lean SC
(8 ) Sagarin at >70% ATS on the season when picking an SEC favorite to cover - lean SC
(9) Sagarin at >80% ATS on the season on Hog games - lean SC

I hope I'm wrong!  I will pull for the Hogs no matter what and understand why many folks would not bet against their team. 

One asterisk to keep in mind is Clowney is questionable with a foot injury.  He spent the majority of the 2nd half of the Tennessee game on the sidelines.   
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

SPAL

Quote from: McKdaddy on November 05, 2012, 01:17:29 pm
I understand your POV. When I've bet against the Hogs, it has been with money I frankly hope to lose (sounds silly, I know). The bet is made w/ my brain, not my heart. I can therefore easily set aside the conflict of interest and cheer for them same as ever. But I can see and understand why people would absolutely not bet against their team.

I detest losing. I have no desire to throw money away. It is a win win for you, but for me it's a lose lose. If I win, the hogs lost. If the hogs won , I lose. I do this to make money. While there is an element if entertainment for me, 95% is on winning. While I certainly understand those who do this simply to add entertainment to a game, I'm not one who simply does it for entertainment.

I don't look down on those who bet on the hogs to lose, it's just not something I could do. If it was my only option to win money, I would pass for the wknd.

 

McKdaddy

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 05, 2012, 03:53:23 pm
I detest losing. I have no desire to throw money away. It is a win win for you, but for me it's a lose lose. If I win, the hogs lost. If the hogs won , I lose. I do this to make money. While there is an element if entertainment for me, 95% is on winning. While I certainly understand those who do this simply to add entertainment to a game, I'm not one who simply does it for entertainment.

I don't look down on those who bet on the hogs to lose, it's just not something I could do. If it was my only option to win money, I would pass for the wknd.

Fair enough. I like hearing other's POV. I don't do this to win, but nobody here seeing my record year-to-year needed me to tell them that. Frankly I suck at it. But it's fun. I'm jealous of you guys that add to your income by doing this.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

WILL CLINTON

So I've added:

Arkansas St -6....2*
New Mexico +1....1*
Pitt -3....2*
Oklahoma -20....1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

SPAL

November 05, 2012, 05:27:39 pm #1804 Last Edit: November 07, 2012, 10:12:15 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot
I know u guys don't play or track nba, but I'm adding...

Sacramento -1   1.5 units.......W

Hawgndaaz

So, the juice line on tonights game went from 115/105 to 120/E now it's 125/105.
Line hasnt changed from +3, so what should this tell me?

I took the eagles 2 units FWIW

SPAL

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on November 05, 2012, 06:04:12 pm
So, the juice line on tonights game went from 115/105 to 120/E now it's 125/105.
Line hasnt changed from +3, so what should this tell me?

I took the eagles 2 units FWIW

They change the juice when action is similar on each side. That's why the line doesn't move. They move the juice to make the payout better to entice you to play a certain side. Not really much more to read into it other than that its been pretty steady betting on both sides.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 05, 2012, 03:42:14 pm
I don't know. With mjd out and Indy getting better each week, this seems like an easy Indy win. Jax only getting 3 at home speaks a lot. I need to run some numbers to see which way I go but the prelim says Indy by 6
Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 05, 2012, 03:42:14 pm
I don't know. With mjd out and Indy getting better each week, this seems like an easy Indy win. Jax only getting 3 at home speaks a lot. I need to run some numbers to see which way I go but the prelim says Indy by 6
Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 05, 2012, 03:42:14 pm
I don't know. With mjd out and Indy getting better each week, this seems like an easy Indy win. Jax only getting 3 at home speaks a lot. I need to run some numbers to see which way I go but the prelim says Indy by 6

If I play that game I would go Indy, but no plans as of yet.  Didn't do anything on tonight's game.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Not sure why when I do the quote option it pops it three times like that fr me.  Crazy dude.
Let's make some waves.

Hawgndaaz


Hawgndaaz


SPAL

November 07, 2012, 04:41:55 pm #1811 Last Edit: November 07, 2012, 10:13:45 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot
My great week fizzled with mnf but I had a solid week. This week I look to get off on the right foot again.

Bowling green +3.       2.5 units.......W


All about the defense in this one.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 07, 2012, 04:41:55 pm
My great week fizzled with mnf but I had a solid week. This week I look to get off on the right foot again.

Bowling green +3.       2.5 units


All about the defense in this one.

You still like Indy tomorrow?

 

SPAL

November 07, 2012, 05:36:02 pm #1813 Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 05:26:14 am by sir-pigs-a-lot
Adding

Clippers +2.      1.5 units......W
Mavs -7.              1 unit........L

SPAL

Quote from: razorback1 on November 07, 2012, 04:43:28 pm
You still like Indy tomorrow?

Honestly, most of my time has been spent on the Thursday night college game. But yeah, I would lean Indy until the line got to 6. But I'm not even sure I even play it unless I play a total. I'll let u know tomorrow.

SPAL

November 07, 2012, 10:15:41 pm #1815 Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 05:25:44 am by sir-pigs-a-lot
YTD RECORD 68-48

la20688


widespreadsooie

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 07, 2012, 05:40:02 pm
Honestly, most of my time has been spent on the Thursday night college game. But yeah, I would lean Indy until the line got to 6. But I'm not even sure I even play it unless I play a total. I'll let u know tomorrow.

I may end up playing A State tonight and just stay away from IND/JAX. I was high on JAX when the line came out, but I really hate taking dogs who suck as bad as the Jags do. Along with ULM's QB out, their top 2 RBs, top LB, top DL, and top DB are out as well according to a buddy of mine in Jonesboro who said he read it in the paper. Going to research it myself sometime today to confirm.

WILL CLINTON

Just an FYI, for those of u on Facebook, vegasinsiders gives out free picks every day. So far they are batting 1000 on CFB this week. I'm gonna check and see how good they been, but this week they are on point.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

SPAL

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on November 08, 2012, 11:55:52 am
Just an FYI, for those of u on Facebook, vegasinsiders gives out free picks every day. So far they are batting 1000 on CFB this week. I'm gonna check and see how good they been, but this week they are on point.

Cool, thanks for the heads up. Every little bit of info helps

widespreadsooie

Just locked in A State -7. ULM has seven starters out.

SPAL

November 08, 2012, 01:01:29 pm #1821 Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 10:33:10 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot
Va tech +14.    4    units........W
Ark st. -7.        2.5 units........W
Indy/jax u43.   1.5 units........W
Indy -3.           1.   Unit.........W



McKdaddy

To the picks from Monday, I'm adding . . . .

Arky St.  -7
WVU  +9
IN/Jax  u42.5

(thanks sir-pigs)
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Hawgndaaz

Sir Pigs,

I see that the Clippers are playing on the road tonight after playing at home last night. If the line is close in situations like this, would it be wise to bet on the home team? Blazers didn't play last night.

 

widespreadsooie

If the Blazers are still getting 2, I'd take 'em if I were a fan of gambling the NBA.

Blutoblutarsky


SPAL

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on November 08, 2012, 01:47:08 pm
Sir Pigs,

I see that the Clippers are playing on the road tonight after playing at home last night. If the line is close in situations like this, would it be wise to bet on the home team? Blazers didn't play last night.
Quote from: Hawgndaaz on November 08, 2012, 01:47:08 pm
Sir Pigs,

I see that the Clippers are playing on the road tonight after playing at home last night. If the line is close in situations like this, would it be wise to bet on the home team? Blazers didn't play last night.
Quote from: Hawgndaaz on November 08, 2012, 01:47:08 pm
Sir Pigs,

I see that the Clippers are playing on the road tonight after playing at home last night. If the line is close in situations like this, would it be wise to bet on the home team? Blazers didn't play last night.

Not a huge fan of trends and angles, but occasionally they work. I would play small on Portland .

SPAL

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on November 05, 2012, 08:14:19 pm
Not sure why when I do the quote option it pops it three times like that fr me.  Crazy dude.

I'm on my iPhone when I notice it doing it to me.

yraciv

November 08, 2012, 05:09:42 pm #1828 Last Edit: November 10, 2012, 10:17:47 pm by yraciv
Going large with ASU tonight!
YTD: 53-39-1, +19.5 units

4 units:
Arkansas State -6.5 W

3 units:
Tennessee -3 L
Nebraska -8 W

2 units:
Arkansas +14 L
Baylor +21.5 W
LA Tech -20 L

1 unit
Syracuse +1.5 W
Virginia -2 L

SPAL

Quote from: yraciv on November 08, 2012, 05:09:42 pm
Going large with ASU tonight!
YTD: 49-35-1, +16.5 units

4 units:
Arkansas State -6.5

I probably should have played more...looks like an easy win

WILL CLINTON

So the vegasinsider free facebook picks  for the last week broke down to:

CFB 3-2
NFL 4-0
NBA 4-1
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

SPAL


widespreadsooie

Who are you taking tomorrow?

I've got Ole Miss -3, and Bama -13.5 right now. Also looking at LSU -15, UGA -14.5, Akron -16.5, and TCU +7.5.

The Hogfather


widespreadsooie

Quote from: The Hogfather on November 09, 2012, 09:10:56 am
ASU was the easiest bet of the entire year.

It really was. As soon as that game kicked off, I thought to myself how I should have put way more than one unit on the Red Wolves.

The Hogfather

I sweat a little after that 1st 3 and out for ASU and subsequent TD for ULM.  But, after that, it went exactly like I thought it would.  Easy money.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Louisville -1.5 / 5 units
Penn ST +9 / 2 units
W VA +9.5 / 5 units
K-St -7 / 10 unit dime play.
Baylor +21.5 / 3 units

Let's make some waves.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on November 09, 2012, 09:29:30 am
Louisville -1.5 / 5 units
Penn ST +9 / 2 units
W VA +9.5 / 5 units
K-St -7 / 10 unit dime play.
Baylor +21.5 / 3 units



I'd probably back off a few units on Louisville. That's a trap if I've ever seen one. You have 77% of the bets on Louisville yet the line has dropped a point from where it opened. Vegas thinks Syracuse is going to win this game. Therefore, I would play Cuse if anyone. I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination, just would like to offer the little insight I have.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: razorback1 on November 09, 2012, 09:38:46 am
I'd probably back off a few units on Louisville. That's a trap if I've ever seen one. You have 77% of the bets on Louisville yet the line has dropped a point from where it opened. Vegas thinks Syracuse is going to win this game. Therefore, I would play Cuse if anyone. I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination, just would like to offer the little insight I have.

I'm actually bumping my Louisville bet from earlier in the week, because I got it at -3. Syracuse is horrible.

I've tried and tried to find an angle based on betting trends and line movement but I just can't seem to connect the 2. No consistency. Not being an ass, just letting you know. You may be right this weekend, but over the long run, it's about 50-50
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

SPAL

Quote from: The Hogfather on November 09, 2012, 09:10:56 am
ASU was the easiest bet of the entire year.

Maybe but I thought va tech getting 14 at home on Thursday night was easier money than ark state. In fact , I almost played them on the money line.

SPAL

November 09, 2012, 04:12:05 pm #1840 Last Edit: November 10, 2012, 07:47:35 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot
Small play .....

Pitt -3.      1.5 units......L

mccurdy

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on November 09, 2012, 09:29:30 am
Louisville -1.5 / 5 units
Penn ST +9 / 2 units
W VA +9.5 / 5 units
K-St -7 / 10 unit dime play.
Baylor +21.5 / 3 units


Why are u so confident West Virginia can keep it close? Thinking about playing it and need some confidence.

la20688

Miami  +1  (fading PP on Virginia after big upset last week)
Cuse   +2  (trap game & Louisville a little overrated)
Bama -13.5 (Bad spot for Bama, but just too good for A&M)
Washington +1 (Getting pts @ home vs. Utah, who has not played well on road)
La Tech  -20   (Tech, too much O for Texas St.)
Ariz St +9.5   (USC no D over ranked vs. ASU  solid D under ranked)
Ore St  +4.5  (More of a gut pick, just really like OSU in this spot)

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: mccurdy on November 09, 2012, 06:14:32 pm
Why are u so confident West Virginia can keep it close? Thinking about playing it and need some confidence.


Never take my word for it my man! Just the way I am betting.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: razorback1 on November 09, 2012, 09:38:46 am
I'd probably back off a few units on Louisville. That's a trap if I've ever seen one. You have 77% of the bets on Louisville yet the line has dropped a point from where it opened. Vegas thinks Syracuse is going to win this game. Therefore, I would play Cuse if anyone. I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination, just would like to offer the little insight I have.

I appreciate the advice, but will stick to my pick. I will listen to anything anyone has to say. That said I always do it on my own and rise or fall on my own stuff.

I actually added 5 more units to Louisville. Cuse will fall easily.
Let's make some waves.

mccurdy

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on November 10, 2012, 12:35:49 am
I appreciate the advice, but will stick to my pick. I will listen to anything anyone has to say. That said I always do it on my own and rise or fall on my own stuff.

I actually added 5 more units to Louisville. Cuse will fall easily.
Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on November 10, 2012, 12:29:44 am

Never take my word for it my man! Just the way I am betting.
I know what you mean. I try to stick with what I think. For instance I'm thinking Tennessee will beat Missouri.


SPAL

November 10, 2012, 10:57:35 am #1846 Last Edit: November 11, 2012, 01:16:12 am by sir-pigs-a-lot
Georgia -14.      10 units........W
Washington pk.    4 units........W
Ucla -16.              3 units.......L

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: razorback1 on November 09, 2012, 09:38:46 am
I'd probably back off a few units on Louisville. That's a trap if I've ever seen one. You have 77% of the bets on Louisville yet the line has dropped a point from where it opened. Vegas thinks Syracuse is going to win this game. Therefore, I would play Cuse if anyone. I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination, just would like to offer the little insight I have.

I may end up eating a little crow on this one.
Let's make some waves.

SPAL

November 10, 2012, 01:42:08 pm #1848 Last Edit: November 10, 2012, 06:17:34 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot
Adding....

Tamu +14.      2 units........W
Wake +8.      1.5 units ......L

Hoggy1

You must be smokin somethin if you think I ain't smokin nothin