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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 178273 times)

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WILL CLINTON

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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« on: August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm »

Each year, we always have a thread or 50 about everyone's picks, sportsbooks, breaking down lines, totals, value, write-ups, etc. I thought this year we could keep it all in one central location. 

Also thought this would be the best way to keep up with everyones record.  Please dont use this as a chance to advertise your tout services in the thread, if your picks are good enough, people will ask you for your information. 

I post weighted picks, which means that I place a value system based on how "sure" I am it will hit. My units are:
1* - 5% of my total bankroll
2* - 10% of my bankroll
3* - 20% of my bankroll
5* - 50% of my bankroll


To kick this thing off here's my first pick of the week

Georgia +3.5....3*
I really like Georgia in this game at a Neutral site, I figure Richt knows what he has to do to keep his job, and winning vs Boise St will be the beginning.  I also think that Georgia is just as sick of hearing about how Boise St belongs with the big boys and want to put an end to any potential dreams they have of being in the MNC.  Basically with the 3 point home advantage, the line is saying that Boise St will win by 6 and I just dont see it.  I may be a blind SEC homer, but so be it.


Im also looking at 2 other games, but what I don't have down as a definite pick by Thursday before kick off of the first game, won't go on my record.

2011-2012 CFB
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« Last Edit: August 31, 2011, 07:22:30 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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BigSexyHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2011, 10:01:14 pm »

I started looking at some lines today.  I will looking over all the lines over the next couple of days.  I have a feeling the UGA/Boise game will get alot of action.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2011, 03:26:29 pm »

Adding:

UCLA +3....1*
Rick Neuheisel(sp) is on the hot seat as well.  This is a chance for him to get a respectable win against a very potent offensive team.  Keenum is coming off the knee injury and UCLA has a stout defense.  Their will be a learning curve seeing as the Bruins are breaking in 5 new coaches on staff, but I think they get it done.  Seeing as they are only giving up the home field advantage, it is basically a pick'em.
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BigSexyHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2011, 11:19:29 am »

Not sure how many of these I will play but I am looking at

Baylor +7
Auburn -21 1/2
mizz - 17 1/2
Houston -3
s. Florida +11 1/2
BYu - 3

See if those lines move any over the next couple of days.   Of course I will change my mind 50 times before Sat gets here.

Looking forward to reading everyone elses thoughts.  Zark buddy where you at!
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Mike Shelton

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2011, 11:57:29 am »

Wish I understood all this, and knew where I could place a bet right afterwards LOL. Wps!
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2011, 04:03:42 pm »

bump
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2011, 07:20:59 pm »

Wish I understood all this, and knew where I could place a bet right afterwards LOL. Wps!

There are several posters here who are more well versed than I at the intricacies of sports investing, but I will give it the ole college try if you have questions.  I can't help you on finding a bookie, I use one of about 3 internet sites and hope like hell I run into a bookie somewhere soon. 

I'm also adding:

Boise St v. UGA over total of 51....2*
The opening game, in a dome, in the spotlight, on National TV, what more could 2 qb's with title hopes want?

I also edited the first post to show upgrading Georgia +3.5 from 2* play to 3* play.  I also may play a parlay on these 2, but I don't count parlay's in the record.

Vandy -12....1*
Again, SEC homerism engaged, I don't see any SEC team losing to a low end FCS team, which describes Elon to a T...yes I remember Ole Miss...I got to think that Franklin has brought some energy to the team and at least has them pumped up for the first game, or its going to be a long season....For the Dores and my bankroll...
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2011, 07:28:41 pm »

I like the Georgia and Vandy picks.  I'm not so sure on the UCLA pick.  I kind of like Houston in that one.  It is not a play for me.

I honestly think Baylor beats TCU outright.

I haven't seriously looked at too many games and will likely add some picks at some point in the future.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2011, 08:27:20 pm »

haha, yeah I guess.

I admit I didn't do a search or anything, but I did look to see if anything was on the front page...

I'll ask one of the mods to combine the threads so we can keep them together
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Scarlett Johansson's Liberally and Amply Slathered Frito Pie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2011, 08:29:48 pm »

I'm usually conservative on the opening weekend but a few lines were interesting.

I'm pondering:

UNLV +35 at Wisconsin

I'm really digging:

Kent St at Bama, taking the over, 45.5

W. Mich at The Big House, taking the over, 61 - its a big number but WMU's QB Alex Carder and WR Jordan White will put some points on the board.  This is the most underrated game of the weekend for entertaining offense. It will also be interesting to see what Brady Hoke does with Denard Robinson in the passing game.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2011, 08:52:21 pm by rlh06 »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2011, 08:45:48 pm »

Kent St at Bama Over 38

Do you mean Kent St +38 over Alabama?
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Scarlett Johansson's Liberally and Amply Slathered Frito Pie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2011, 08:50:37 pm »

Do you mean Kent St +38 over Alabama?

Oops, meant the over, 45.5.
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Jon Ham

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2011, 09:54:22 pm »

Ham's Picks:

Miss St -29 Memphis
TCU -6 Baylor
Auburn -21 Utah St.
BYU - 3 Ole Miss
Boise St -3.5 Georgia
Oregon -1 to -3 LSU

To read my preview of each of these games, click http://jonham.weebly.com/jons-articles.html
« Last Edit: September 01, 2011, 02:10:38 am by Jon Ham »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2011, 02:06:30 pm »

My favortie thread of the year. This means college football is back and it means another payday is here as well...

Last season was profitable but i did lose a good chunk on the hogs in the sugar bowl. Nonetheless, i made some money so im here to win again. Getting things started....im going with Wisky -34.5 at home to UNLV. When you mix the travel to Wisconsin, plus an o-line with no experience protecting a sophmore QB and no run game, you think, this is a good bet. Then you add in that Wisky has 2 stellar running backs who amassed close to 2000 yards last year, a transfer QB from NCState who was really good, and a good o-line, i think it makes this one a no-brainer.

Wisky -34.5 vs UNLV

Bank Roll=1000
Betting 150
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2011, 03:38:31 pm »

Baylor should upset TCU
Georgia over Boise
BYU of Miss

Playing all 3 games as a teaser and adding 5 points to my favorites
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2011, 03:46:34 pm »

Had to play some games tonight although I don't see any of them as strong bets.

I played

miss st -29 1 unit
Unlv +36 1 unit
Syracuse -6.6 1 unit

I also tied all three together for a three teamer.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2011, 03:48:58 pm »

Someone says 10 guys aren't playing for MSU tonight. 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #18 on: September 01, 2011, 03:50:46 pm »

Someone says 10 guys aren't playing for MSU tonight. 

 I saw that.  Too late now.  I mean memphis is horrible though.
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BigSexyHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #19 on: September 01, 2011, 04:18:12 pm »

I saw that.  Too late now.  I mean memphis is horrible though.

I jumped on Miss Stank as well.
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BigSexyHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #20 on: September 01, 2011, 04:31:23 pm »

What does everyone think of the Kentucky game tonight? 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #21 on: September 01, 2011, 04:35:20 pm »

I jumped on Miss Stank as well.



I think it should be fine.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2011, 05:34:16 pm »

Almost time. ;)
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BigSexyHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #23 on: September 01, 2011, 10:49:13 pm »

Well thank you Cuse!!!! Holy Cow I wrote that off.

Kentucky on the other hand..... well not so much.

Still 2-1 came out ahead tonight
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2011, 10:53:15 pm »

WAy to go Cuse!  3 for 3 and popped the three team parlay!  Great start to the season. 
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #25 on: September 02, 2011, 04:05:05 am »

as a rule, i always buy the hook. 34.5 should have been down to 34, but this day i was in a hurry. Not buying the hook cost me a buck 50. Here is to getting back on track and congrats to all who won tonight.
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #26 on: September 02, 2011, 04:25:20 am »

I go by one simple rule....its what I call the 'smell test'....I look at a betting line and if it looks too good to be true, it is......bet the other way......I've been in the BLACK ever since I adopted this simple way of betting football some 4 years ago.....admittedly, some years are better than others....if you have any doubts, ask THE HOGFATHER, he'll tell you the same thing
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #27 on: September 02, 2011, 07:47:13 am »

I go by one simple rule....its what I call the 'smell test'....I look at a betting line and if it looks too good to be true, it is......bet the other way......I've been in the BLACK ever since I adopted this simple way of betting football some 4 years ago.....admittedly, some years are better than others....if you have any doubts, ask THE HOGFATHER, he'll tell you the same thing

No doubt.  The best example was 2 years ago at Ole Miss.  BPs 2nd year here.  I might try to go find some of those threads.  It was bad for Razorback fans.
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daprospecta

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #28 on: September 02, 2011, 08:34:17 am »

Had to play some games tonight although I don't see any of them as strong bets.

I played

miss st -29 1 unit
Unlv +36 1 unit
Syracuse -6.6 1 unit

I also tied all three together for a three teamer.
You had a good night! I had Cuse and I gave up on the play and just watched for entertainment value.  That comeback was like a scripted movie.
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daprospecta

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #29 on: September 02, 2011, 08:35:31 am »

I'm at 1500 now.
Wow that UNLV team is waaaaaay worse than I imagined. Thought I would win that one by a lot more than 1.5 points.
Ill look at the lines and see If I can invest anything for the weekend.

I don't think they are that bad.  They had consistent drives against a team that is a candidate for the national championship.  UNLV will compete in their conference this year.
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scottagee

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #30 on: September 02, 2011, 10:15:08 am »

I think a lot of folks knew how bad Memphis really was. And Miss St just took care of business.

Looking at one other small play this weekend. Maybe 2, no more.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #31 on: September 02, 2011, 10:22:56 am »

Im just watching the TCU game but word is the qb for TCU is hurt. Tread lightly.
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Hoggy1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #32 on: September 02, 2011, 10:25:45 am »

I liked TCU at -3 1/2 on Bodog last night.  Woke up and it's at 4, so I just took TCU straight up.

Haven't researched tomorrows games
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #33 on: September 02, 2011, 10:47:58 am »

Using an RLM strategy, I'm on Baylor and UCLA
« Last Edit: September 02, 2011, 11:29:50 am by McKdaddy »
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Simple Swineman

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #34 on: September 02, 2011, 10:54:41 am »

I love Kent State +38.5 at Bama. Saban is a Kent State graduate. He also played and coached there. I doubt he will try and humiliate them so he may call off the dogs early. Bama will also likely be looking ahead to Penn State.

Didn't realize it until all my picks were in, but I'm liking the underdogs in week 1. My other picks:
Utah State +23 at Auburn
Rice +24.5 vs Texas
Tulsa +25.5 at Oklahoma
Western Michigan +14 at Michigan
Ball St +6 vs Indiana
USF +11 at Notre Dame
Northwestern +3 at BC
Hawaii -7 vs Colorado
Marshall +23 vs West Virginia

I also had Western Kentucky +17 against Kentucky last night.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #35 on: September 02, 2011, 11:39:30 am »

Added a 6p teaser . . .

UGA +9 with A&M -9.5
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #36 on: September 02, 2011, 12:11:55 pm »

EDIT: took TCU game off my card for now...

I honestly thik I'm just being over-informed and am going to kick myself for not betting it, but until I can understand how the line movements vs betting trends work, or keep myself from looking too deeply, I'll deal.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2011, 02:59:27 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #37 on: September 02, 2011, 12:14:06 pm »

I'm also liking UGA +3 but I think Boise will get the win. Georgia is young and Boise has 16 returning senior starters.  Tough one to pull the trigger on.  ONE NOTE ON THIS GAME: Boise will have 3 players staying home now due to a eligibility issue: Sr would be starting safety, a back up WR, and a back up DT.

I'm also liking BYU to cover the 3 at OM. Obviously this game has emotion involved and making a play on a game with emotion usually would break rule #1 for me. BYU has 15 starters returning and OM expects to rotate QBs and rely on running heavy with Bolden. If you like the ground game, this game is for you. Another tough one to pull the trigger on in week 1.

Lastly, the 56.5 O/U for aTm and SMU is very tempting. aTm should be better on offense but their D is the big ?. SMU has their O and D lines returning in full. 70% of their total yardage last year returns and I would think June Jones will come up with something to get points on the board.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2011, 12:40:05 pm by rlh06 »
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jdelo77

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #38 on: September 02, 2011, 12:29:30 pm »

What website does everyone use to bet ??? i cant remember the name of the one i used last year....
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #39 on: September 02, 2011, 12:34:59 pm »

Nevermind found it...playing a 3 team parlay

UCLA +3
Baylor +3.5
BYU   -2.5

risking
 20 on it to win 150....
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #40 on: September 02, 2011, 01:49:29 pm »

I am on baylor tonight +4.5 and I think they win the game.

Also considering the over in this one.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #41 on: September 02, 2011, 02:53:13 pm »

I am on baylor tonight +4.5 and I think they win the game.

Also considering the over in this one.

I just looked at the Betting Trends, and most of all the spread based bets are/have been coming in on TCU, which is exactly the opposite of what the line movement is showing. I went back and looked and something happened on 8/31 between 1:18 and 1:43 to change the line from -6 to -4.5, but there wasn't a increase/decrease on the amount of money coming in on TCU, so something is up here, and I'm just not smart enough to figure it out.  If anyone has any insight on this, please share it with me. I'm taking this game off my card for now.
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The Great Hambino

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #42 on: September 02, 2011, 03:01:21 pm »

4/6 last night.

here's to a good weekend of "investing"
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #43 on: September 02, 2011, 03:06:06 pm »

im on baylor as well....getting them at +4.

playing small....75 USD

As for the guy who asked what website to use...there are numerous amounts of them. Ive been a bodog guy for a while, but there are plenty. Do a google search for top sportbooks and you will find one you are lookign for. Find one that is offering a big deposit bonus, one that has timely and easy payouts, and one that isn't inflating the juice, which means charging you more than what the bet shoudl be....

for instance....if you bet 1.00, you should get close to 1.00 in winning if you have average odds. Some sites add juice to the line which would be betting 1.00 to win. 70 or .80. You should always be able to get at least -110 when betting ATS, which means you shold pocket at least .90 for every 1.00 you bet.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #44 on: September 02, 2011, 03:06:17 pm »

I just looked at the Betting Trends, and most of all the spread based bets are/have been coming in on TCU, which is exactly the opposite of what the line movement is showing. I went back and looked and something happened on 8/31 between 1:18 and 1:43 to change the line from -6 to -4.5, but there wasn't a increase/decrease on the amount of money coming in on TCU, so something is up here, and I'm just not smart enough to figure it out.  If anyone has any insight on this, please share it with me. I'm taking this game off my card for now.

TCU QB is hurt is what someone said earlier.  That could explain it.  Or, it could just be that there's some big money coming in on Baylor from the "sharps", while most of the little guy bets are coming in on TCU.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #45 on: September 02, 2011, 03:09:35 pm »

TCU QB is hurt is what someone said earlier.  That could explain it.  Or, it could just be that there's some big money coming in on Baylor from the "sharps", while most of the little guy bets are coming in on TCU.

And this is why I'm torn. People could be jumping on Baylor because of the QB being hurt, or there was a huge bet on Baylor that took the spread down but didn't budge the betting trend.  On the other hand, the QB thing coud be just what all the sharps were waiting on, and are now middling the bet with TCU -6.5 AND -3....I just don't know

Like I said, information overload. 
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #46 on: September 02, 2011, 03:12:05 pm »

And this is why I'm torn. People could be jumping on Baylor because of the QB being hurt, or there was a huge bet on Baylor that took the spread down but didn't budge the betting trend.  On the other hand, the QB thing coud be just what all the sharps were waiting on, and are now middling the bet with TCU -6.5 AND -3....I just don't know

Like I said, information overload. 

I know one thing.  I wish I would've taken Baylor earlier, when it was at 7.  Oh well.  I'll probably still end up taking the points..
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #47 on: September 02, 2011, 03:28:00 pm »

Oregon 5*
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #48 on: September 02, 2011, 03:47:09 pm »

Oregon 5*


You better watch out.  I am playing LSU plus the points, but I wouldn't call it a 5 star game either way.  Whatever system your is.  For me it will be LSU plus the points for 2 units.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #49 on: September 02, 2011, 03:51:12 pm »

And this is why I'm torn. People could be jumping on Baylor because of the QB being hurt, or there was a huge bet on Baylor that took the spread down but didn't budge the betting trend.  On the other hand, the QB thing coud be just what all the sharps were waiting on, and are now middling the bet with TCU -6.5 AND -3....I just don't know

Like I said, information overload. 



There is supposedly a injury to tcu starting qb.  Of course whomever they start will be new regardless.  Seems like Dalton was there about 25 years.  My assumption on the line is some heavy money early brought it down.  I would imagine now you have many playing the middle hoping to hit both sides.  ''

Also likely that local (non vegas sports book) bookies are laying off some in Vegas.  I will take the team with the proven QB almost every time.

Don't discount revenge.  TCU has smacked Baylor around pretty good as of late.  Griffen at QB to me should be the difference in this one.

Of course that's just my logic.  I certainly don't have any info I am keeping back.
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