Hog roster attrition rate

[BPsTheMan]

This is the name of the game many often forget to consider.

Players leaving, players flunking out, players getting kicked off the team for random infractions, et al.

And THAT is a story about Auburn, and others. Not Arkansas.

Coach Petrino has been handling this from day one, and actually any down numbers stem from players from the previous regime leaving. I don't have the actual numbers, but about this time last year I saw an article showing the high attrition rates in the SEC, and the Hog were not one of them.

Bobby brings in good kids, with decent-to-good academics, and they stay. They eat that training table. They work out. They get bigger and faster and smarter. Whether they redshirt or not, they become long term guys on The Hill who completely defy the myth of "recruiting stars."

A light scan of the internet, and we see that Miss State and Alabama are in pretty good shape on attrition rate. The biggest problem programs with this are...Ole Miss and Auburn.

Anybody know any recent hard numbers for each SEC program? LSU for one?

[BPsTheMan]

These numbers are a good two-three years old...

SEC teams' attrition from 2006-08 signing classes
Team Total signees   Not with team   Percentage
AUBURN 84     35           41.6

MSU 84     35 41.6

Ole Miss 83     30 36.1

Arkansas 79     28 35.4

UK 79     27 34.1

LSU 78     26 33.3

USC 78     26 33.3

Tennessee 72     24 33.3

Alabama 80     23 28.75

Georgia 75     17 22.6

Florida 76     16 21

Vanderbilt 60     10 16.6

http://www.gulfeast2.com/index.php/auburnversus/comments/au_football_attrition_leaves_tigers_short_on_scholarship_players/

[BPsTheMan]

Note: Arkansas and Miss State were in bad shape under Nutt and Croom, as those numbers show, but Petrino and Mullen are turning that around.

[chitwnhog]

I wonder how much a stable coaching staff has to do with these numbers? Vanderbilt is always going to be at the top of these kinds of lists but the others behind them Florida, Georgia, Alabama have coaching staffs that have been there a while. Auburn and Tenner kind of throw this theory off a little.

[BPsTheMan]

I crunched the classes of 2009 and 2010:

Together, our attrition rate for those two classes are 30.36 percent.

However, two notes:

The class of 2010 is only at a 16% attrition rate, probably among the best in the SEC.

And the class of 2009 included five junior college guys, Leon, Crim, etc.,...gone simply because they've played their years. And we had to have them given the mess Nutt left us.

[BPsTheMan]

Add the 2008 class, which Petrino had to accumulate from scratch, and our three year attrition rate (does not include the new kids coming) is 32.9 percent.

But the trend is highly in our favor.

These are numbers to watch, as they only get better.

[BoynamedWooPigSooie]

BPs,   on your number crunching... Are you counting JC guys that finish eligibility as attrition? 

Statistics... they say whatever you want,

[DukeOfPork]

Bobby brings in good kids, with decent-to-good academics, and they stay. They eat that training table. They work out. They get bigger and faster and smarter.

I don't know if this is entirely correct.  I think it is more a result of the discipline that BP exerts on them.

The players Petrino left at Louisville went completely off the rails under Kragthorpe.  He accused BP of leaving a mess, but it's funny that none of that nonsense was going on while BP was there.  The UL fans certainly seemed to believe that Kragthorpe simply didn't demand what BP demanded from them.

[chitwnhog]

I don't know if this is entirely correct.  I think it is more a result of the discipline that BP exerts on them.

The players Petrino left at Louisville went completely off the rails under Kragthorpe.  He accused BP of leaving a mess, but it's funny that none of that nonsense was going on while BP was there.  The UL fans certainly seemed to believe that Kragthorpe simply didn't demand what BP demanded from them.

I think both are correct. The majority of the players he's brought to the UofA come across as intelligent decent kids. Every program is going to have bad apples and problems there is no way around it. I think BP and his staff keep on top of the players and address the problems in the moment. There are too many starters or players who get significant minutes who disappear for a while (Stadther) and the coaching staff makes no mention of why. I love it when BP says "We are only going to comment on players who practiced today"

[josh_sec33]

Being connected to a UL grad and to a family of UL alumni and fans, they firmly blame Kraggy as the problem, and Kraggy trying to heap blame onto Petrino for his own shortcomings since at the time Petrino was getting rolled over by the national media.

[Hog Fan...DOH!]

I crunched the classes of 2009 and 2010:

Together, our attrition rate for those two classes are 30.36 percent.

However, two notes:

The class of 2010 is only at a 16% attrition rate, probably among the best in the SEC.

And the class of 2009 included five junior college guys, Leon, Crim, etc.,...gone simply because they've played their years. And we had to have them given the mess Nutt left us.

Are you counting guys who graduate as part of the "attrition"? 

I would think you'd consider dropouts, dismissals, transfers, injuries...

[DukeOfPork]

Being connected to a UL grad and to a family of UL alumni and fans, they firmly blame Kraggy as the problem, and Kraggy trying to heap blame onto Petrino for his own shortcomings since at the time Petrino was getting rolled over by the national media.

Well, the fact that Kragthorpe was fired tells you a lot about what UL thought about him.

[jbcarol]

Ole Miss has had eligible 10 players leave since the end of the season including Tallequah QB Nathan Stanley last night.  It is reported that they 77 scholarship players remaining if all the freshmen make it to fall camp.

[JackJohnson]

I crunched the classes of 2009 and 2010:

Together, our attrition rate for those two classes are 30.36 percent.

However, two notes:

The class of 2010 is only at a 16% attrition rate, probably among the best in the SEC.

And the class of 2009 included five junior college guys, Leon, Crim, etc.,...gone simply because they've played their years. And we had to have them given the mess Nutt left us.

As others have said- guys like Leon, Crim, Zhamal Thomas and Andru Stewart should NOT count as "attrition" since they exhaused their eligibility. 

However Forester, Evans and Henderson (all 7 of these guys are from the 2009 class) should be counted bc they either quit (Forester), got hurt (Evans), or never made it (Henderson)

[Farrestor]

Petrino is underrated for how he has handled this. He is such a great coach because he wins. He also handles off the field issues very well it seems.

[Mike_e]

So, what are the numbers not counting JC graduates and injuries?

[BPsTheMan]

BPs,   on your number crunching... Are you counting JC guys that finish eligibility as attrition? 

Statistics... they say whatever you want,

Yes. There's no other way to count it. If any journalist is going to crunch these numbers for the entire SEC, he's not going to delve into every JC guy, per eligibility being used up, for each team. And it wouldn't matter anyway, thus IMHO, the devil of signing JC guys. If you have to have them, you have to have them. But they're gone before you know it.

Jackie Sherrill made a living off them at Miss State, but it sure killed Sylvester Croom to inherit that mess.

[BPsTheMan]

Are you counting guys who graduate as part of the "attrition"? 

I would think you'd consider dropouts, dismissals, transfers, injuries...

Chitown and Josh, thanks for the info on Kragthorpe. I like it. He's now LSWho's off coor. So I love the irony when we kick their butts next Thanksgiving.

HogFanDOH, all you can do to figure attrition is look at signed classes, and simply count off the ones who aren't on the roster anymore. Leaving for the NFL early would count too. I doubt many kids graduate and leave in 3 years though. But anyway, most attrition is from negative circumstances, but it's a straight numbers thing IMO.

Gotta give Urban Meyer credit at Fla: he consistently had plenty of kids go NFL early, and still kept a decent attrition rate.

[BPsTheMan]

Jack, I don't disagree, but if they're not here anymore, they're just not here anymore.

That's why I qualified Petrino's numbers: GOOD trending numbers, and that...includes...the JC guys being counted, which shows even more of how Bobby handles his business.

So it would be my guess that any journalists who crank out these reports, they're including the JC guys being gone. We loved Ryan Mallett (NFL early), Anthony Leon, Rudell (JC's), et al, they did their job, nothing negative about it...but they are gone.

[JackJohnson]

Jack, I don't disagree, but if they're not here anymore, they're just not here anymore.

That's why I qualified Petrino's numbers: GOOD trending numbers, and that...includes...the JC guys being counted, which shows even more of how Bobby handles his business.

So it would be my guess that any journalists who crank out these reports, they're including the JC guys being gone. We loved Ryan Mallett (NFL early), Anthony Leon, Rudell (JC's), et al, they did their job, nothing negative about it...but they are gone.

i understand what you are saying.  However, they would need to be counted as if they were a HS signee that used up all of their eligibility after 4 or 5 years depending on if they redshirt. 

For example:

We signed 33 players that year (counting the transfer of Broderick Green).  7 of those guys were JC.  4 of them used up their eligbility as I noted above, and 3 did not.  You would simply count the 3 that didn't in the "attrition" portion.  The other 4 would be counted as a positive- though you may not "count" them until their class graduates.  As it stands now- of those 33 guys, the true "attrition rate would be 10 of the 33. 

HOWEVER, since 5 of those 10 guys never made it to campus, you can't really count them as "attrition" since they didn't quit, transfer, flunk out, give up football, etc.  The APR doesn't count those guys against you bc they never enrolled in school.  So our "true" attrition rate is 5 out of 28, or 17.86%

Does that make sense? 

[Hog Fan...DOH!]

I get what you're saying, BP.  But when I think of attrition, I think of guys who wash out, flunk out, go to jail, transfer, go pro, etc. I don't think of guys who graduate or stay in the program the full length of their eligibility.  I think of guys who leave for various other reasons. 

I don't know what the numbers are, but there seem to be WAY more players staying in Bobby's program than who stayed in TCTWF's program.  I think we all agree to that. 

[chitwnhog]

Chitown and Josh, thanks for the info on Kragthorpe. I like it. He's now LSWho's off coor. So I love the irony when we kick their butts next Thanksgiving.

HogFanDOH, all you can do to figure attrition is look at signed classes, and simply count off the ones who aren't on the roster anymore. Leaving for the NFL early would count too. I doubt many kids graduate and leave in 3 years though. But anyway, most attrition is from negative circumstances, but it's a straight numbers thing IMO.

Gotta give Urban Meyer credit at Fla: he consistently had plenty of kids go NFL early, and still kept a decent attrition rate.

Krag has a reputation as being a very good QB coach and from what I'm told has done a lot of work with Jordan Jefferson this spring. Time will tell if it sinks in with Jefferson from what I've read he didn't light it up in their spring game.

[chitwnhog]

i understand what you are saying.  However, they would need to be counted as if they were a HS signee that used up all of their eligibility after 4 or 5 years depending on if they redshirt. 

For example:

We signed 33 players that year (counting the transfer of Broderick Green).  7 of those guys were JC.  4 of them used up their eligbility as I noted above, and 3 did not.  You would simply count the 3 that didn't in the "attrition" portion.  The other 4 would be counted as a positive- though you may not "count" them until their class graduates.  As it stands now- of those 33 guys, the true "attrition rate would be 10 of the 33. 

HOWEVER, since 5 of those 10 guys never made it to campus, you can't really count them as "attrition" since they didn't quit, transfer, flunk out, give up football, etc.  The APR doesn't count those guys against you bc they never enrolled in school.  So our "true" attrition rate is 5 out of 28, or 17.86%

Does that make sense? 

It does make sense, but wasn't one of the 10 that didn't make it to campus that year Robert Thomas? How is a guy like him factored in considering two years later he is on campus and looking like he's going to contribute?

[BPsTheMan]

It does make sense, but wasn't one of the 10 that didn't make it to campus that year Robert Thomas? How is a guy like him factored in considering two years later he is on campus and looking like he's going to contribute?

I counted Robert Thomas. We cannot count Calvin Barnett...yet.

Jack, if a kid never shows, but he did sign, IMHO that has to count against a team on attrition.

On junior college guys, it's simple to me. We loved Leon and Crim, but any program is going to rather have a good player be in the program 3 years (if he's talented enough to go NFL after his junior year) to five years.

What Meyer accomplished at Florida with high early NFL entries and low attrition (best case scenario of course) is that he kept filling the roster back up with guys who kept being talented enough to also be 3 and out to the NFL.

Oh, and great walkon programs cannot be figured into this, but a great walkon program is only a plus.

My intended point was...Auburn and Ole Miss are in shambles. 

[BPsTheMan]

...if you look at Rivals and look at Urban Meyer's last FIVE recruiting classes, you'll be amazed.

In five years...he signed a TOTAL of...four...junior college players.

Four.

Prep schools? Yes. Junior colleges? No. Prep schools aren't JC's.

Nutt at Ole Miss? Just the opposite. Pretty high levels of junior college guys each year = high attrition.

[LZH]

It is reported that they 77 scholarship players remaining if all the freshmen make it to fall camp.

Considering all the 'oversigning' Nutt has done, this statistic gets a big "ouch"...goes to show that oversigning can seriously backfire (if you're looking at it this way).  I'm assuming that the attrition number counts for kids who signed, and not kids who actually received a scholarship.  Is this correct?

[chitwnhog]

Considering all the 'oversigning' Nutt has done, this statistic gets a big "ouch"...goes to show that oversigning can seriously backfire (if you're looking at it this way).  I'm assuming that the attrition number counts for kids who signed, and not kids who actually received a scholarship.  Is this correct?

Wow! Absolutely true, I hadn't thought of that at all.

[BPsTheMan]

LedZep, great point buddy.

And btw, Led Zep was the music I cut my teeth on at a very young age.

Okay one more and I'll shutup...

...In Bobby's first four classes here...(it seems like more, but it's not)...COUNTING this years class (2011), he's only signed a total of TEN junior college players.

That my homies is trending toward what Meyer did at Florida.

<<<< Bobby P

[LZH]

And btw, Led Zep was the music I cut my teeth on at a very young age.

Does this mean that you play?  'Cause I cut my teeth on learning the guitar parts to Elvis records...Scotty Moore and James Burton...oooooowee.  It wasn't until I was 18-19 before I could begin to figure out what the hell Page was actually doing.

And I'm kinda fuzzy on the big discussion about the JC players.  Are you saying that if a kid signs, doesn't make the grades, and has to go to JC, that this is counted against the university?

[BPsTheMan]

Does this mean that you play?  'Cause I cut my teeth on learning the guitar parts to Elvis records...Scotty Moore and James Burton...oooooowee.  It wasn't until I was 18-19 before I could begin to figure out what the hell Page was actually doing.

And I'm kinda fuzzy on the big discussion about the JC players.  Are you saying that if a kid signs, doesn't make the grades, and has to go to JC, that this is counted against the university?

Shoot no. Played the trumpet in 5th grade though. I just know 70's guitar was rediscovered in the 90's...and I know WHY I hated 80's hair bands.

On the JC...yes and no. Count everything IMO on a 3-5 year window. Robert Thomas for instance is here. Plus. Calvin Barnett is not. Minus. But if we get Barnett REsigned...Plus.

Extreme example. Jackie Sherrill at Miss State. While he DID do a good job there, it was a revolving door in Starkville. Some might say he did what he had to do? I actually agree. But it's still not the best scenario. He was never for one minute...building a program.

[LZH]

...and I know WHY I hated 80's hair bands.

God bless us both.

Some might say he did what he had to do? I actually agree.

Actually, so do I.  I've always liked Sherrill.

[jesterzzn]

BP, I think your idea of attrition is a bit off.  Attrition is the thining of a force that is not capable of being renewed through reinforcement.  A soldier that leaves an army through the fulfillment of their contract is only counted as attrition if a replacement is not found.

Someone that exhuasted their eligibility is freeing up their scholarship in the same way.  They are replaced in the upcoming class, and their roles are filled through current depth taking their place.  No attrition.  Attrition would be the players that leave, which are not already accounted for, or which do not have a quality backup in place.  Players whose leaving means additional scholarships in the next class must be used to replace players beyond the anticipated amount.

The reason this is bad is that it causes uneven turnover in that class.  This uneven turnover was a major problem with Nutt.  It is also the reason Petrino went after JC players early.  He needed to even out the turnover.  If he brought in 25 freshmen in each of his first two years, the bloat would have worsened.

[JackJohnson]

It does make sense, but wasn't one of the 10 that didn't make it to campus that year Robert Thomas? How is a guy like him factored in considering two years later he is on campus and looking like he's going to contribute?

I didn't count him as "attrition" however i counted him as a part of that class and I wouldn't count him as a part of the 2011 class bc since he is on campus and was originally part of the 2009 class i left him there.  Don't guess it matters either way though

[12247]

I would think the attrition rate would be based on those that left before completing their elgibility.  Any player that completed his elgibility would not be attrition.  If so then every player ever signed would be counted as attrition no matter how he left or when he left.  Injured players shouldn't be counted either if they return after the injury and stick with the team.  And in any event, an injured player shouldn't be blamed on the team or coach unless it is discovered that poor training and treatment caused the player to leave or be lost to the team. Just my opinion.

[IronHog]

Jack, if a kid never shows, but he did sign, IMHO that has to count against a team on attrition.

Not if he was signed knowing that he probably was going to JUCO anyway....only so many can report per year by rule.


"Attrition" isn't as big a deal for programs like LSU and Bama that sign so many top athletes.......However it is critical for a program like Arkansas to avoid losing too many players if it wants to play at the top of the SEC year in and out.........

[Iwastherein1969]

we can all rest easy with the MILK MAN on the job...I wouldn't trade him for ANY college football coach in the country, and yes, that includes the little general who resides in Tuscaloosa

[BPsTheMan]

jester and 12247, a football roster attrition rate would not necessarily fit the definition of attrition by itself.

1. Football attritions guideline in a perfect world would be..."everyone is redshirted and stays for five years."
2. Next would be "everyone stays for four years"
3. Next would be "every player we sign goes pro after three years." (which would  actually be better than the above, because can you imagine the talent on a team like that?)

Those are unrealisic hypotheticals, but that's where the line is drawn. So again IMHO, even early NFL entries are attrition, because you only had that guy for 3 years. Is it a negative? No, he was a great player...but we'd sure love to have him 4 instead of 3.

Junior college guys are certainly attrition - 2 years and out.

I'm not anti-junior college...it's gotta happen sometimes...but 4 years is better than 3 or 2.

Does this all get way more specific on the practice field and in the coaching meetings looking at the roster? Very much so. Away from the big picture. If I'm Louisiana-Lafayette and we just landed a friggin horse DE who got his act together after getting booted from Alabama 2 years earlier, we're not going to see that as a bad thing. It's an awesome thing, especially if we are ULL.

Or...Fred Smoot at Miss State...great example. Played JC, then one year only at Miss State, and then off to the NFL early. Great while it lasted...but only one year.

[ADAM_713]

This is the name of the game many often forget to consider.

Players leaving, players flunking out, players getting kicked off the team for random infractions, et al.

And THAT is a story about Auburn, and others. Not Arkansas.

Coach Petrino has been handling this from day one, and actually any down numbers stem from players from the previous regime leaving. I don’t have the actual numbers, but about this time last year I saw an article showing the high attrition rates in the SEC, and the Hog were not one of them.

Bobby brings in good kids, with decent-to-good academics, and they stay. They eat that training table. They work out. They get bigger and faster and smarter. Whether they redshirt or not, they become long term guys on The Hill who completely defy the myth of “recruiting stars.”

A light scan of the internet, and we see that Miss State and Alabama are in pretty good shape on attrition rate. The biggest problem programs with this are…Ole Miss and Auburn.

Anybody know any recent hard numbers for each SEC program? LSU for one?

You are partially right, but still wrong.

[chitwnhog]

I didn't count him as "attrition" however i counted him as a part of that class and I wouldn't count him as a part of the 2011 class bc since he is on campus and was originally part of the 2009 class i left him there.  Don't guess it matters either way though

OK cool.

[Farrestor]

led zep are you a fellow player? We are going to have to jam,  especially if you love zep as much as i do.

[BPsTheMan]

You are partially right, but still wrong.

Awesome.

I'm also a bit overweight right now, and my SUV only gets 15 miles per gallon.

dang'it

[MuskogeeHogFan]

This is the name of the game many often forget to consider.

Players leaving, players flunking out, players getting kicked off the team for random infractions, et al.

And THAT is a story about Auburn, and others. Not Arkansas.

Coach Petrino has been handling this from day one, and actually any down numbers stem from players from the previous regime leaving. I don't have the actual numbers, but about this time last year I saw an article showing the high attrition rates in the SEC, and the Hog were not one of them.

Bobby brings in good kids, with decent-to-good academics, and they stay. They eat that training table. They work out. They get bigger and faster and smarter. Whether they redshirt or not, they become long term guys on The Hill who completely defy the myth of "recruiting stars."

A light scan of the internet, and we see that Miss State and Alabama are in pretty good shape on attrition rate. The biggest problem programs with this are...Ole Miss and Auburn.

Anybody know any recent hard numbers for each SEC program? LSU for one?

That "attrition rate" is certainly a statistic that is going to look better for some, not so good for others. Now this is just my opinion, but I think the attrition rate can only be counted for those players who sign and actually get to campus and then leave under whatever circumstances.

And the term "attrition rate" tends to have a negative connotation so in its most strict sense, perhaps it should only apply to those players who actually sign, get to campus and then fail to produce as athletes so they transfer somewhere else, don't make it academically or get into trouble from a legal standpoint. I think that counting players who signed but were never found to qualify to enroll skews that which you are attempting to measure. While it may be an indictment of poor recruting practices, it isn't indicative of players who actually entered the program and then didn't make it for some other reason.

A separate statistic would be early departures to the NFL. This too is a telling statistic but one that has a more positive reflection upon the program's recruiting process and the success of the program itself. This would encompass anyone who either enrolled as a Freshman and only stayed three years(even if one of those was a RS year) as well as JC transfers that came in and only stayed for one or two seasons.

Further, I would say that players who stay for 4-5 years, graduate and move on, whether to the NFL or not, should not be considered in attrition rates.

You have an excellent point but if broken down to a greater degree, it would perhaps provide a better perspective of which programs are mor eor less successful in this regard.

[JackJohnson]

jester and 12247, a football roster attrition rate would not necessarily fit the definition of attrition by itself.

1. Football attritions guideline in a perfect world would be..."everyone is redshirted and stays for five years."
2. Next would be "everyone stays for four years"
3. Next would be "every player we sign goes pro after three years." (which would  actually be better than the above, because can you imagine the talent on a team like that?)

Those are unrealisic hypotheticals, but that's where the line is drawn. So again IMHO, even early NFL entries are attrition, because you only had that guy for 3 years. Is it a negative? No, he was a great player...but we'd sure love to have him 4 instead of 3.

Junior college guys are certainly attrition - 2 years and out.

I'm not anti-junior college...it's gotta happen sometimes...but 4 years is better than 3 or 2.

Does this all get way more specific on the practice field and in the coaching meetings looking at the roster? Very much so. Away from the big picture. If I'm Louisiana-Lafayette and we just landed a friggin horse DE who got his act together after getting booted from Alabama 2 years earlier, we're not going to see that as a bad thing. It's an awesome thing, especially if we are ULL.

Or...Fred Smoot at Miss State...great example. Played JC, then one year only at Miss State, and then off to the NFL early. Great while it lasted...but only one year.

again- i understand where you are coming from.  However I just don't think you can classify JC's as attrition provided they complete their eligibility and here is why.

Lance Ray and Rudell Crim both came in with the 2009 class.  Both are now gone after 2 years.  However Ray was either kicked off the team or quit the team- it hasn't came out but either way he is gone.  That is the definition of college football attrition the way I understand it.  Crim played (and started) for his 2 years and completed his eligibility with us. 

I don't see how those two should be counted the same...

[MuskogeeHogFan]

again- i understand where you are coming from.  However I just don't think you can classify JC's as attrition provided they complete their eligibility and here is why.

Lance Ray and Rudell Crim both came in with the 2009 class.  Both are now gone after 2 years.  However Ray was either kicked off the team or quit the team- it hasn't came out but either way he is gone.  That is the definition of college football attrition the way I understand it.  Crim played (and started) for his 2 years and completed his eligibility with us. 

I don't see how those two should be counted the same...

I agree, see my post above. I think you will find that our thinking is aligned.

[BPsTheMan]

Yes, the exceptions that prove the rule on a day-to-day and month-to-month basis can far exceed the rule itself.

But Bobby Petrino and Urban Meyer, for two, would tell you signing JC's is not the best scenario from a long term standpoint.

Jackie Sherrill again at Miss State. He did what he had to do. He won consistently. But he never built a program there.

[BPsTheMan]

i.e.,...Sherrill won fairly consistently, certainly based on Miss State standards.