Basketball coaching search is Long’s biggest test yet

[Biggus Piggus]

It is extremely hard to keep many candidates alive at the same time.  Doing it for a week is not so hard, if they all are sitting coaches in postseason play.  Beyond that, as teams' seasons begin to end, you'd need incredible luck to avoid narrowing the field.  Name coaches cannot afford to sit around and wait after being interviewed.

The best thing Arkansas has going is less competition among job openings this year.  Oklahoma and Georgia Tech are the next-best jobs available.  They certainly can hire coaches Arkansas would want, but they aren't jobs that basketball coaches dream about either.  Lack of competition might give Jeff Long more time than usual.

I wonder whether timing was part of Long's decision to fire John Pelphrey.  It's equally likely that Long acted because of doubts about the eligibility of Pelphrey's savior recruiting class, and/or because of Pelphrey's 9-24 won/loss record after January 31 over the past three seasons, and/or because Pelphrey had even worse team disunity problems than Stan Heath ever had. (In his last three seasons at Arkansas, Heath went 19-17 after 1/31, including 4-6 in the season when his team appeared to quit on him).

But it's possible that few names will fall off Arkansas's list over the next two weeks.  Big question is whether that will be long enough.

The attached graph portrays NCAA Tournament teams on an X-Y chart.  The X axis is the ratio of the team's 3-point shooting % to its 3-pt % defense.  The Y axis is the same for 2-point shooting.  This presentation places Kansas in an elite position.

KU is set up for a Final Four run.  Trey-dependent Notre Dame might be the Jayhawks' only stern test on the way to Houston, and KU's perimeter defense is outstanding.

The Final Four is the first week of April.  Will Long wait till after then to find a coach?  Candidates such as Gregg Marshall of Wichita State (plays Nebraska tonight in the NIT), Buzz Williams of Marquette (faces Xavier in the NCAAT on Friday), Mike Anderson of Missouri and Mick Cronin of Cincinnati (they face each other in the NCAAT on Thursday), and Mark Turgeon of Texas A&M (going against Florida State in the NCAAT on Friday) might have been idle for three weeks by then.

If one assembles a pecking order based on accomplishments, it probably would turn out like this:

1. Self
2. Anderson
3. Great big pileup

The highest-rated coach likely to be available soon is Mike Anderson.  Would Anderson be willing to sit around and wait to hear whether Self wants to leave Lawrence?  It would take a mighty selfless soul to do that, and usually lack of ego is not a trait associated with head coaches.

One on this list I really like is Marshall, who won 79 games his last three seasons at Winthrop, then turned around Wichita State (which had not been good in Turgeon's last season there, then had six open scholarships).  Have to wonder whether he could recruit at Arkansas after coaching for mid-majors his whole career.  Marshall would maximize the productivity of whoever's on hand, but he might not be the man for the impatient.

In my view, the coaching search should go like this:

1. Offer the job to Mike Anderson.
2. If he doesn't accept, then decide whether to wait for a shot at Bill Self, or start interviewing the rest of the list.

What do you think?

[DEVIL DOG HOG]

Long will have to get approval on his new hire from the BOT and the PTB. the BOT run the University and the PTB will be paying for the new HC.

[Smokehouse]

sounds like a reasonable course of action.

But if Long has had private conversations with Self, as some have said, then it all depends on how those conversations went. If it's even the tiniest bit possible that Self would come I think you risk losing Mike Anderson to get Self.

We know if Mike is leaving Mizzou, it's going to be to come here and he just signed an extension so short of a Final Four run (which would eliminate the stated problem) he won't be signing another.

[want2be]

I think when Jeff new we weren't in the NIT he had to play his hand.

If the money is available then Long has contacted Self's agent and he has a good idea. He is definitely the guy who the fans, players, recruits, etc.
would agree as a home run. Jeff will wait on Self IF he is a true option.

If Self is not the in the running......then it is a crap shoot for Long........Anderson may take the job and attendance would increase by at least 50% next year. I not sure all the board members are behind Mike and even though most fans like him, I think Long may have an ego that would lead him to the future instead of the past.


I think the next in line would be Dixon or Turgeon........Buzz next then
Marshall.

I don't think Jeff is looking at the X-Y chart.........He wants someone who will make an immediate positive impression. That is why he will not take a risk with Billy G. or Floyd.

If he ends up with Marshall, it may be a great hire in the long run, but he will have to make the Sweet 16 next year for Jeff to be respected as an AD

[nwarazfan]

Can't say I disagree with anything you posted BP.  I have the same concern with Marshall when it comes to his recruiting experience as well as our fan base's patience with someone that doesn't produce immediately.

KU does have a history of choking with highly seeded teams.  I'll certainly pull for them to be upset just as I always do.  Self should obviously be the top choice way above Mike or anyone else mentioned.  But you are right in the timing that if KU gets to the Final 4 and Mike doesn't make it past the first weekend, we have to offer Mike if he is choice 2 behind Self.  For closure for our fan base and as a "safe" pick for Long, he should be offered at that point. 

Personally, I would let Mike go if he didn't want to wait if there is a slight possibility Self would.  I guess we also have to watch OU, GT and NC St and if they can hire someone else on our list.  We can't go into F4 weekend having passed on Mike and Turgeon, Marshall and Williams all off the table by either landing a new job or removing their names and Self as a longshot.  That is when it could get ugly. 

[nwarazfan]

Long will have to get approval on his new hire from the BOT and the PTB. the BOT run the University and the PTB will be paying for the new HC.

That should already be pretty much pre approved for any of these coaches we are discussing.

[Tomhog™]

I love me some scatter plots!

[nwarazfan]

Where do Mizzou, Marquette and A&M fall in the graph?

[MS_HogFan]

Biggus....what makes you think Bill Self wants our job?

[Biggus Piggus]

Biggus....what makes you think Bill Self wants our job?

Absolutely nothing.  Do we want him, possibly.

[MS_HogFan]

Absolutely nothing.  Do we want him, possibly.

Who do you think we will get?

[Biggus Piggus]

Where do Mizzou, Marquette and A&M fall in the graph?

Cincinnati 1.05, 1.08
Kansas State 1.07, 1.03
Marquette 0.97, 1.07
Missouri 1.06, 1.05
Texas A&M 1.07, 1.07

[DZ]

Biggus....what makes you think Bill Self wants our job?

I've wondered the same.. why would a guy leave a basketball program like Kansas? You're ranked top 5 nearly every year in the recent past..

[HF#1]

BP,

How much does Kansas getting knocked off in the tournament change things?  Lets say they exit in the sweet 16 and we don't have to wait as long as we thought.  Does the process then change to, offer Self the job then go after Anderson, then interview the rest of the list?

For the record, while I would support Mike Anderson 100% I'm not sure he's the right hire. 

[Biggus Piggus]

Who do you think we will get?

I do not know how to read Jeff Long, and nobody else who used to be in the know does either.

[nwarazfan]

I've wondered the same.. why would a guy leave a basketball program like Kansas? You're ranked top 5 nearly every year in the recent past..

Never know what is going on with him, his health, his family, his relationship with the admin, what incidents have happened which I think he has had a couple of issues at KU.  Coaches have walked from jobs before that you would have thought would have been "coach for life" situations. 

Cincinnati 1.05, 1.08
Kansas State 1.07, 1.03
Marquette 0.97, 1.07
Missouri 1.06, 1.05
Texas A&M 1.07, 1.07

Thanks.  In with the masses.  Thought Mizzou may would have been a bit higher. 

[BossHog13]

Biggus, I like the plan. Offer Mike and at least try for Self.

[MS_HogFan]

I do not know how to read Jeff Long, and nobody else who used to be in the know does either.

Thanks.... U bring some really good stuff to this board. I have missed you lately.

[Biggus Piggus]

My guess is Long wants a coach who is an outstanding technician and program manager, with an impeccable reputation for staying out of trouble and recruiting academically sound student-athletes.  My read is that those criteria would place Mark Turgeon high on our list.  Would Long be able to lure someone more successful, such as Pitt's Jamie Dixon?  Dixon is pretty much the prototype of what I described.

After eight years, griping has arisen around Dixon at Pitt, and he feels underappreciated. He grew up in LA but played at TCU (was all-SWC in Nolan's second season at Arkansas).  Dixon's only ties to Pitt come from working there since Ben Howland hired him. Most of his assistant coaching career was out west, so Arkansas might not be the place he'd like to wind up. It's closer to the West Coast than Pitt, though.

[hamARchy in the USA]

In my view, the coaching search should go like this:

1. Offer the job to Mike Anderson.
2. If he doesn't accept, then decide whether to wait for a shot at Bill Self, or start interviewing the rest of the list.

What do you think?

I think that's waving the white flag and giving up on ever having a great program again.  If we want to be the best then we go after the best.  No risk, no reward.

[Biggus Piggus]

Biggus, I like the plan. Offer Mike and at least try for Self.

If a guy like Dixon would be available, the decision would be difficult. My concern about Anderson would be whether he'd win enough to satisfy our boosters, some of whom would never accept him.

[Biggus Piggus]

I think that's waving the white flag and giving up on ever having a great program again.  If we want to be the best then we go after the best.  No risk, no reward.

Go for the best

Whiff

Then what?

[Oliver]

Based on the way Jeff Long has described what kind of coach he wants to bring in, along with the names we've heard floating around, my guess is his list looks something like Self, Anderson, Turgeon, and then a bunch of fall back options that are at mid-majors. 

Oklahoma and Georgia Tech aren't going to be taking any of those 3 main candidates above.  So the only thing we have to worry about is all 3 of those candidates telling us no and then losing out on maybe our favorite mid-major option due to an OU or GT taking them before we get a chance to. 

[Biggus Piggus]

Thanks.... U bring some really good stuff to this board. I have missed you lately.

I couldn't stomach the last months of Pelphrey, between the team's emotional gyrations and getting screwed in the South Carolina and Georgia games.  When his team wouldn't unite for him down the stretch, he was done for.

[nwarazfan]

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2010/may/29/ku-ticket-scandal-puts-focus-out-control-athletics/

This is the ticket scandal from last year.  Maybe our KU poster or someone else can tell us how this has or hasn't affected Self and his relationship with the admin.  Besides conference realignment, are there other things Self would like to break from by leaving?

"KU faculty morale is low, and morale among alumni is deteriorating. It can and will affect the school in many ways, such as the upcoming capital campaign.

The anger of many faculty over the millions of dollars spent by the athletic department, while they are being told to operate with reduced budgets, continues to grow."

[Biggus Piggus]

Self also has to be wary of what is happening to the Big 12.

[ArkansasI]

I just don't think that Mike is the right choice.  Certainly Mike has a fine coaching record, but nothing to me that justifies he is worth a significant raise to become our coach.  As you stated, Mizzou is most likely to get knocked out of the tournament first.

If you pay a guy enough money, does that make him a better coach/recruiter?  Mike has been a head coach for a good number of years now, but I can't name one player that he has sent to the NBA.  If he were stuck at a mid-major I might understand, but he is at a high profile program.  Mizzou has real talent in Kansas City and St. Louis.  This is a huge deal to me.

All of us - including me - like Mike and wish him well.  However, when you list:

1.  Self
2.  Anderson
3.  Great big pileup

I am inclined to wait for Self.  He has serious recruiting capabilities.  He showed that at Illinois and at Kansas.

All that stated, Long better know what Self is thinking.  If he hasn't sent some super positive vibes, we have to move on - especially if Kansas makes a deep tournament run.  The pressure on his team and him will grow as rumors circulate that he is - indeed - interested in the Razorbacks.  Right now, this idea is not taken seriously.

If Self doesn't want the job, I am afraid that puts me in the Great big pileup.  The good thing is that there is no hurry with respect to these coaches.  The problem is that there is no guarantee in anything below Self.  Of course, if basketball people know that someone other than Self presents a guarantee, it would make sense to go after him as soon as his team is done.

Whatever the case, we are in a strong holding pattern until teams start losing.

[want2be]

I do not know how to read Jeff Long, and nobody else who used to be in the know does either.

I imagine a gentlemen like Tyson knows how to make the read.......Just sayin

[incHOGnito]

If it's even the tiniest bit possible that Self would come I think you risk losing Mike Anderson to get Self.

I agree.

[Biggus Piggus]

I imagine a gentlemen like Tyson knows how to make the read.......Just sayin

No, Long is playing all factions against one another. Nobody knows whether Long has a priority list. He gives appearances of floating the opening and still collecting names.

[want2be]

Self also has to be wary of what is happening to the Big 12.

Self may be tired of dealing with Texas's tail wagging the dog

I think his wife is also from NW Ark.....Not sure

[hamARchy in the USA]

Go for the best

Whiff

Then what?

We shouldn't be afraid of failing.  On the contrary, we should be eager to get a great coach.  The Razorback program has been to the top of the mountain and it's capable of getting there again. 

If the worst happens and we do not succeed at getting one of those who is considered the best, then we can sort through the best of the rest .... they'll still be there.

[MakeMeOink]

1.  Long didn't want to fire Pel, he was forced to.

2.  He fired Pel when he did because Scoop had already reported the decision had been made and it was widely known (I even knew!).

3.  If Self has interest and has possibly already accepted then Long knows that and will wait.  Long already knows one way, or the other on Self as he probably does on MA.

4.  It is my belief that the whole Tubby/BCG/Buzz talk is a smokescreen to throw off the press and people who have time to post 1,000's of times on message boards.

[want2be]

No, Long is playing all factions against one another. Nobody knows whether Long has a priority list. He gives appearances of floating the opening and still collecting names.

Jeff is either a good poker player or playing with fire.

[nwarazfan]

Self also has a new boss as AD with Perkins retiring.  Anyone know how that relationship is or of Self is checking his options just in case he doesn't want to work for him?  I would think the PTB would have checked with Self on the hire but you never know. 

[ArkansasI]

Re: Self

I would add that it wouldn't be hard to determine his level of interest.  If he is unwilling to signal a real interest in the job, it should be real easy for us to move on to whoever is next.

It shouldn't take long to mull over in your own mind if you are seeking a job change.  All of us can figure out if we are seriously interested in a career change without it dominating more than a couple of hours of our time.

KU is playing Boston U in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  Since John was let go, Bill has had a couple of hours to convey any real interest in the position through the appropriate channels.

FWIW - I am not as infatuated with Self as others seem to be.  He would probably be great, but would cost an arm and a leg.  It is tough to know what the right decision is here.

All this to say, I don't believe that doing this the right way necessarily involves a public "whiff" at the best.  Right now, it is still just internet speculation.

[Breems]

Scatter plot sighting...

So YOU'RE my Data Analysis teacher!  Can I have an extension on Homework 8?

[nwarazfan]

Re: Self

I would add that it wouldn't be hard to determine his level of interest.  If he is unwilling to signal a real interest in the job, it should be real easy for us to move on to whoever is next.

It shouldn't take long to mull over in your own mind if you are seeking a job change.  All of us can figure out if we are seriously interested in a career change without it dominating more than a couple of hours of our time.

KU is playing Boston U in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  Since John was let go, Bill has had a couple of hours to convey any real interest in the position through the appropriate channels.

FWIW - I am not as infatuated with Self as others seem to be.  He would probably be great, but would cost an arm and a leg.  It is tough to know what the right decision is here.

All this to say, I don't believe that doing this the right way necessarily involves a public "whiff" at the best.  Right now, it is still just internet speculation.

For me, the thing that makes him a "lock" or near guarantee success is not so much just what he has done at KU.  It was he built Illinois into a Final 4 level program although he left before they reached it.  Then he won the NC at KU in season 5, not 1 like Tubby did at UK, which verifies what I see he did at Illinois. 

[Boarcephus]

Jeff is either a good poker player or playing with fire.

As Finnebaum described Long as considering himself, "the smartest person in the room", so we shall see.   

[cityhog]

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2010/may/29/ku-ticket-scandal-puts-focus-out-control-athletics/

This is the ticket scandal from last year.  Maybe our KU poster or someone else can tell us how this has or hasn't affected Self and his relationship with the admin.  Besides conference realignment, are there other things Self would like to break from by leaving?

"KU faculty morale is low, and morale among alumni is deteriorating. It can and will affect the school in many ways, such as the upcoming capital campaign.

The anger of many faculty over the millions of dollars spent by the athletic department, while they are being told to operate with reduced budgets, continues to grow."

Things are no different on the Hill

[cityhog]

I think Self is a pipe dream, but he is the one coach that would have the KY jellycats sharting themselves.

[JJHog]

I don't offer it to Anderson, it opens up that wound again and the fans remain polarized IMHO.
I think we're taking a huge gamble on Self, Brey or Dixon you may have to wait 3 weeks to talk to 'em....meanwhile Teargon stays in College Station, Buzz heads to OU and Marshall heads to NC State. Then you've missed on on your #1 list and and your #1A list while swinging for the deep fences and have to settle for the Cincy coach or whomever.
Buzz is a great fit and has recruited the 5 recruits. Unless you can get a handshake deal from the #1 list in the next week, then hire Buzz and be done

[bigdaddyhawg]

Re: Self

I would add that it wouldn't be hard to determine his level of interest.  If he is unwilling to signal a real interest in the job, it should be real easy for us to move on to whoever is next.

I think this is an excellent point.

Just speaking for myself, but if I were Jeff Long, and I had contacted Bill Self's agent, I would know right now whether there was any realistic shot at getting Self to leave KU.

And regardless of what many say on here, I believe Long is a sharp guy.  I believe if he is actually going to wait for KU to finish their tourney, that Long has to know that Self is willing to seriously consider our best offer.

I would think Self's agent would have had the freedom to speak openly with Long about our job.  And although I generally don't think much of agent types, I doubt Bill Self would allow his agent to tell the UA he'd be serious about listening if indeed he wasn't.  But that's just my personal opinion.

[PonderinHog]

Things are no different on the Hill

Things are no different across the country.

[bigdaddyhawg]

I don't offer it to Anderson, it opens up that wound again and the fans remain polarized IMHO.
I think we're taking a huge gamble on Self, Brey or Dixon you may have to wait 3 weeks to talk to 'em....meanwhile Teargon stays in College Station, Buzz heads to OU and Marshall heads to NC State. Then you've missed on on your #1 list and and your #1A list while swinging for the deep fences and have to settle for the Cincy coach or whomever.
Buzz is a great fit and has recruited the 5 recruits. Unless you can get a handshake deal from the #1 list in the next week, then hire Buzz and be done

But is there really a difference within that next group that includes Buzz and Turgeon and Marshall?  I don't think anyone in that group stands out above the rest.  So why not veer to the patient path that might offer us a bigger name coach?

[bigdaddyhawg]

No, Long is playing all factions against one another. Nobody knows whether Long has a priority list.

Why should anyone know?  NOTHING positive for our search would come from that.  It would only bring confusion and dissension.

He gives appearances of floating the opening and still collecting names.

What's wrong with that? 

[RazorPiggie]

For me, the thing that makes him a "lock" or near guarantee success is not so much just what he has done at KU.  It was he built Illinois into a Final 4 level program although he left before they reached it.  Then he won the NC at KU in season 5, not 1 like Tubby did at UK, which verifies what I see he did at Illinois.

Yes bc in 5 years he has his own players there, not someone else's like Tubby did.
He turned an ORU team that went 6-21 the year before he got there and in his 4th season went 21-7.
At Tulsa his first year went 19-12 and his 3rd went 32-5 and an Elite Eight appearance.
At Illinois 78-24.
Guy knows how it is supposed to be done with his players.

[Smokehouse]

Self also has a new boss as AD with Perkins retiring.  Anyone know how that relationship is or of Self is checking his options just in case he doesn't want to work for him?  I would think the PTB would have checked with Self on the hire but you never know. 

RCJH may need to correct me on this, but I believe Self had problems with Perkins which have been resolved with the new AD.

[onebadrubi]

For saying the things on the hill are the same about the money pinching...

This is my understanding of it at least.

The coach would be paid a good salary by the U of A, say 250,000-500,000 and the rest comes from donations to the Razorback Foundation.  So faculty can whine and cry all day long.  Because the Razorback Foundation is not going to subsidize books or anything, because then the Razorback sports takes a hit, which looses money for the foundation, and so on. 

I am not saying this is how it works, but it is what I think I have read on here about how it works with football.

[nwarazfan]

Things are no different on the Hill

Things are no different across the country.

I know.  Just trying to figure out a reason why he would think of leaving KU and what their specific issues are.

RCJH may need to correct me on this, but I believe Self had problems with Perkins which have been resolved with the new AD.

I believe you are right about Perkins.  Again, trying to figure out in addition to the Texas/Big 12 issue, why he would listen to us.