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Author Topic: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?  (Read 2339 times)

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hogz11

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What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« on: August 13, 2017, 07:15:20 pm »

Assuming Bielema is here for that long........I had this discussion today with a friend. Here's my take of what SHOULD be expected.


Ceiling: SEC title and shot at the playoff. I really don't think this is too much to ask for once (or twice) every 10 seasons. Hogs would need an 11-1 or 10-2 most likely to even make the SECCG. Win that and be 12-1 or 11-2, a playoff spot is definitely within reach.

Median: 8-4 would be my opinion of the average year and what should be expected over the next 10 seasons. A bowl win makes it a 9 win season and that's not bad for an average year. I'm sure some 7-5 years would probably be in there as well.

Floor: 6-6 is the bare minimum and should only happen on really off years with a big graduating class and maybe having to start a young QB. If CBB is here that long going .500 and to a bowl should be bare minimum requirements.


Just my take.....
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Al Boarland

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2017, 07:27:03 pm »

Seems reasonable. Just not sure he can get a SEC title. However, 10 years is a long time frame.
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East Clintwood

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2017, 07:27:04 pm »

Well, we're at floor level now and like the lady screams on TV -- "Help, I've fallen and I can't get up.


So, more of the same.
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bythelake

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2017, 07:28:58 pm »

Lots of banning of negative posters as it should be.
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Bubba's Bruisers

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2017, 07:30:54 pm »

All depends on the landscape.  How much longer is Saban around?  I would love an SECC, but I don't really expect it...from any coach.  If BB averaged 8-4 over the next 10 years, that would be a fantastic result for a program like ours.  But it will be very difficult to achieve.  I think he'll average 7 to 7.5 regular season wins.  9 wins pretty much max.
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Steef

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2017, 07:34:01 pm »

Well, Saban's contract only goes to 2024.

So we might see Atlanta sometime after that.
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tusked

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2017, 07:40:42 pm »

90 wins.
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Razorback_Mack

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2017, 08:14:20 pm »

90 wins.
We've never won 90 over 10 years in the history of the program, so common sense would say that isn't "realistic."
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oldhawg

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2017, 09:26:38 pm »

I think Clemson is a good model to emulate.

From 2005 to 2014 (I excluded the last two years because Clemson played four extra games in championship series), Clemson won 89 games with 2 ten win seasons and 2 eleven win seasons.

If Clemson can do that, Arkansas should be able to.

A realistic, attainable goal.
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bigpigpimpin

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2017, 09:35:00 pm »

.500 ball, much like the previous 2 decades
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Bubba's Bruisers

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2017, 09:45:28 pm »

I think Clemson is a good model to emulate.

From 2005 to 2014 (I excluded the last two years because Clemson played four extra games in championship series), Clemson won 89 games with 2 ten win seasons and 2 eleven win seasons.

If Clemson can do that, Arkansas should be able to.

A realistic, attainable goal.

We are more like Michigan State.  That's an attainable goal.
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Rzbakfromwaybak

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2017, 11:59:53 pm »


Lol.  Nobody realistically knows what's going to happen in the next 10 games, much less the next 10 seasons. 
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Hogopolis

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2017, 09:36:05 am »

10 years is impossible to project.   Will Saban still be st Alabama?  Will the current 10 year olds in Arkansas grow into a great in state recruiting group?  Will OU and Ok State be in the SEC?   I like coach B and the only thing for sure is I hope he stays for 10 more years, that would mean he won a lot of games.   Otherwise he would have been canned long before we hit year 10.
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AP85

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2017, 10:21:07 am »

Assuming Bielema is here for that long........I had this discussion today with a friend. Here's my take of what SHOULD be expected.


Ceiling: SEC title and shot at the playoff. I really don't think this is too much to ask for once (or twice) every 10 seasons. Hogs would need an 11-1 or 10-2 most likely to even make the SECCG. Win that and be 12-1 or 11-2, a playoff spot is definitely within reach.

Median: 8-4 would be my opinion of the average year and what should be expected over the next 10 seasons. A bowl win makes it a 9 win season and that's not bad for an average year. I'm sure some 7-5 years would probably be in there as well.

Floor: 6-6 is the bare minimum and should only happen on really off years with a big graduating class and maybe having to start a young QB. If CBB is here that long going .500 and to a bowl should be bare minimum requirements.


Just my take.....

Next ten years? Same as my last 32 years.

Middle of the pack. Occasional make a run season here and there.

We are who we are.
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hogsanity

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2017, 10:22:53 am »

average of 7-8 wins a year, just like the program has been since joining the sec.
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Polecat

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2017, 10:23:16 am »

.500 ball, much like the previous 2 decades

This
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GuvHog

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2017, 10:57:52 am »

Assuming Bielema is here for that long........I had this discussion today with a friend. Here's my take of what SHOULD be expected.


1. Ceiling: SEC title and shot at the playoff. I really don't think this is too much to ask for once (or twice) every 10 seasons. Hogs would need an 11-1 or 10-2 most likely to even make the SECCG. Win that and be 12-1 or 11-2, a playoff spot is definitely within reach.

2. Floor: 6-6 is the bare minimum and should only happen on really off years with a big graduating class and maybe having to start a young QB. If CBB is here that long going .500 and to a bowl should be bare minimum requirements.


Just my take.....

1. I agree on the Ceiling

2. Floor: 8-4 in regular season play
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texas tush hog

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2017, 10:58:58 am »

Assuming Bielema is here for that long........I had this discussion today with a friend. Here's my take of what SHOULD be expected.


Ceiling: SEC title and shot at the playoff. I really don't think this is too much to ask for once (or twice) every 10 seasons. Hogs would need an 11-1 or 10-2 most likely to even make the SECCG. Win that and be 12-1 or 11-2, a playoff spot is definitely within reach.

Median: 8-4 would be my opinion of the average year and what should be expected over the next 10 seasons. A bowl win makes it a 9 win season and that's not bad for an average year. I'm sure some 7-5 years would probably be in there as well.

Floor: 6-6 is the bare minimum and should only happen on really off years with a big graduating class and maybe having to start a young QB. If CBB is here that long going .500 and to a bowl should be bare minimum requirements.


Just my take.....


I watched Bielema at Whisky and given, he started out with an established program, he did no harm, and actually thrived after a few years. After watching the way he has built this ship, I believe he will not only be here for ten years,I think he will thrive here as well. I think we have seen his floor and we can expect 9 or more wins from here on out. Although I don't expect SEC titles every year, I believe we will see successful seasons every year and occasionally great years. I say, oh ye of little faith, but don't jump on the bandwagon after cutting him so deeply.
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hogsanity

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2017, 11:02:56 am »

1. I agree on the Ceiling

2. Floor: 8-4 in regular season play

So, again you set the floor ABOVE what the program has done, on average, since joining the SEc. Well, in hogvilleland that makes perfect sense. But the Op said REALISTIC.
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oldhawg

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2017, 11:14:26 am »

So, again you set the floor ABOVE what the program has done, on average, since joining the SEc. Well, in hogvilleland that makes perfect sense. But the Op said REALISTIC.

On the other hand it's not impossible.  Clemson went over fifty years averaging less than seven wins a season, but found something to make a difference the last tens years or so. 

Our expectations as fans are meaningless, but I hope that the expectations of the coaching staff and players are higher than what has happened "on the average" for the last fifty years ----- otherwise you are correct, the Razorbacks will remain a mediocre program.
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AP85

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2017, 11:18:51 am »

On the other hand it's not impossible.  Clemson went over fifty years averaging less than seven wins a season, but found something to make a difference the last tens years or so. 

Our expectations as fans are meaningless, but I hope that the expectations of the coaching staff and players are higher than what has happened "on the average" for the last fifty years ----- otherwise you are correct, the Razorbacks will remain a mediocre program.

We aren't much different than ole miss, miss state, or Kentucky.
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hogsanity

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2017, 11:19:29 am »

We aren't much different than ole miss, miss state, or Kentucky.

Or most other p5 programs.
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2017, 11:21:18 am »

Lol.  Nobody realistically knows what's going to happen in the next 10 games, much less the next 10 seasons. 

Ten years, ten seasons, ten months, ten weeks, ten days, ten hours, ten minutes nor even ten seconds do people know what is going to happen.
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GuvHog

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2017, 11:26:38 am »

So, again you set the floor ABOVE what the program has done, on average, since joining the SEc. Well, in hogvilleland that makes perfect sense. But the Op said REALISTIC.

In his 10 years as Hog HC, Houston Nutt had only 4 years where his Hogs won less than 8 games in regular season play and 2 of those bad years were caused by sanctions as a result of Frank Broyles association with a booster. The other 2 were unacceptable.

In 2010 and 2011, the Hogs went 10-2 in regular season play finishing in the top 15 nationally both years.

8-4 should be the floor in regular season play with the first year of a new coaches tenure being an exception (which is why I don't hold Bielema's first year at Arkansas against him). It is very doable.
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Hogwild

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2017, 11:34:09 am »

In his 10 years as Hog HC, Houston Nutt had only 4 years where his Hogs won less than 8 games in regular season play and 2 of those bad years were caused by sanctions as a result of Frank Broyles association with a booster. The other 2 were unacceptable.



This is the 10th year of Jeff Long's tenure- we have had 2 seasons with more than 8 wins, and 5 seasons with less than 8 wins.
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #25 on: August 14, 2017, 11:39:05 am »

This is the 10th year of Jeff Long's tenure- we have had 2 seasons with more than 8 wins, and 5 seasons with less than 8 wins.

Yet they still make a profit unlike most programs, have a lot for people show up for games, graduate players that otherwise would have to find some other way and have people and media write about them all the time......
« Last Edit: August 14, 2017, 11:51:58 am by Inhogswetrust »
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Kevin

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #26 on: August 14, 2017, 11:42:21 am »

75 wins
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #27 on: August 14, 2017, 11:51:43 am »

In his 10 years as Hog HC, Houston Nutt had only 4 years where his Hogs won less than 8 games in regular season play and 2 of those bad years were caused by sanctions as a result of Frank Broyles association with a booster. The other 2 were unacceptable.

In 2010 and 2011, the Hogs went 10-2 in regular season play finishing in the top 15 nationally both years.

8-4 should be the floor in regular season play with the first year of a new coaches tenure being an exception (which is why I don't hold Bielema's first year at Arkansas against him). It is very doable.

In ten out of fourteen years as a head coach in the SEC he finished .500 in the conference or less. Seven out of ten of those at Arkansas.
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hogsanity

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #28 on: August 14, 2017, 11:52:48 am »

This is the 10th year of Jeff Long's tenure- we have had 2 seasons with more than 8 wins, and 5 seasons with less than 8 wins.

and 3 of those 5 years were in a coach's 1st season. BP won 5 his 1st, JLS won 4 in his only, and BB won 3 in his 1st.  Long has not coached 1 game.
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12247

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #29 on: August 14, 2017, 11:53:50 am »

Around .500 ball in the SEC, around .750 ball in the OOC and a minor bowl 4 of 5 seasons with maybe 1 or 2 better bowls throwed in.  We are likely to see 1 or 2 no bowl seasons in there too.
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The ColonelHog

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #30 on: August 14, 2017, 12:39:54 pm »

So, again you set the floor ABOVE what the program has done, on average, since joining the SEc. Well, in hogvilleland that makes perfect sense. But the Op said REALISTIC.

Well I think EVERY institution, business, and people in America attempts to improve their craft.  I've never met anyone or been a part of any organization that adopts the "it's our history so we will never improve" mantra.  Feel very sorry for and wouldn't want to be associated with anyone or organization that did accept that type of thinking. 
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hogsanity

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #31 on: August 14, 2017, 12:47:09 pm »

Well I think EVERY institution, business, and people in America attempts to improve their craft.  I've never met anyone or been a part of any organization that adopts the "it's our history so we will never improve" mantra.  Feel very sorry for and wouldn't want to be associated with anyone or organization that did accept that type of thinking. 


But that was not what the OP asked. IMO, and that's just mine, it is not realistic to set the floor at what the program has done, historically on average, since joining the sec. The floor, to me, would be the worst record in a non 1st season or interim coaching tenure. So that would be a 4 win season. And that should happen once every 12-15 years at most. To set the floor at 8 wins is just not living in the real world.
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tusked

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #32 on: August 14, 2017, 01:01:34 pm »

We've never won 90 over 10 years in the history of the program, so common sense would say that isn't "realistic."

The hogs have an appx. all time .594 winning %.  If they win 90 games out of 130 over the next 10 season that's a .692 win %.

BP's last 3 years were a .744 win %.

I mean heaven for bid the program actually gets better for a change, I don't think .692 is unreasonable realistic expectation at all.  If that's too much, then leave the SEC, make tickets free and throw a party every saturday afternoon in the fall and have a football game.
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hogsanity

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #33 on: August 14, 2017, 01:04:15 pm »

The hogs have an appx. all time .594 winning %.  If they win 90 games out of 130 over the next 10 season that's a .692 win %.

BP's last 3 years were a .744 win %.

I mean heaven for bid the program actually gets better for a change, I don't think .692 is unreasonable realistic expectation at all.  If that's too much, then leave the SEC, make tickets free and throw a party every saturday afternoon in the fall and have a football game.

Getting better and making a good run is not the same thing as " being realistic ".

My 19 yr old is 6 feet tall, and has been for almost 4 years. Sure, he MIGHT grow another 6 inches, it has happened before, but realistically I expect him to still be 6ft when he turns 20 and 21 and 22.
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GuvHog

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #34 on: August 14, 2017, 01:25:05 pm »

In ten out of fourteen years as a head coach in the SEC he finished .500 in the conference or less. Seven out of ten of those at Arkansas.

I frankly don't care what Nutt did or didn't do at Ole Miss, that's meaningless to me. All that matters is what he did at Arkansas. In 6 out of 10 years, his Hog teams won at least 8 games in regular season play. What I posted in my reply you quoted is true. If Hooty could accomplish that with average coaching ability (if that) and all of his off of the field issues, a good HC should be able to win at least 8 regular season games at Arkansas every year in this era of the 12 game yearly schedule.
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hogsanity

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #35 on: August 14, 2017, 01:29:56 pm »

I frankly don't care what Nutt did or didn't do at Ole Miss, that's meaningless to me. All that matters is what he did at Arkansas. In 6 out of 10 years, his Hog teams won at least 8 games in regular season play. What I posted in my reply you quoted is true. If Hooty could accomplish that with average coaching ability (if that) and all of his off of the field issues, a good HC should be able to win at least 8 regular season games at Arkansas every year in this era of the 12 game yearly schedule.

And they will IF they get the crop of instate players like HDN had. MJ and Dmac in their stints here probably won him 1 or 2 extra games every year. As in state talent goes, so goes the program.
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Al Boarland

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #36 on: August 14, 2017, 01:33:35 pm »


I watched Bielema at Whisky and given, he started out with an established program, he did no harm, and actually thrived after a few years. After watching the way he has built this ship, I believe he will not only be here for ten years,I think he will thrive here as well. I think we have seen his floor and we can expect 9 or more wins from here on out. Although I don't expect SEC titles every year, I believe we will see successful seasons every year and occasionally great years. I say, oh ye of little faith, but don't jump on the bandwagon after cutting him so deeply.

Recruiting will have a take a significant step forward to consistently win nine games.
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hogz11

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #37 on: August 14, 2017, 01:49:03 pm »

Recruiting will have a take a significant step forward to consistently win nine games.

Uhhhhh yeah. Winning 9 regular season games every year on a consistent basis (meaning that's the floor) would require top 10-15 recruiting classes yearly.
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tusked

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #38 on: August 14, 2017, 02:10:19 pm »

Getting better and making a good run is not the same thing as " being realistic ".

My 19 yr old is 6 feet tall, and has been for almost 4 years. Sure, he MIGHT grow another 6 inches, it has happened before, but realistically I expect him to still be 6ft when he turns 20 and 21 and 22.

If these two scenarios were anywhere close to being the same I'd bite but they aren't and I'm not.
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OneTuskOverTheLine™

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #39 on: August 18, 2017, 06:39:07 pm »

We are more like Michigan State.  That's an attainable goal.

 That's Status Quo not a goal...
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Headhog32

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #40 on: August 18, 2017, 07:42:07 pm »

Seems reasonable. Just not sure he can get a SEC title. However, 10 years is a long time frame.
if he is here 10 years and can't get an SEC title he needs to go. its time we start winning championships instead of the Texas bowl
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hogcard1964

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #41 on: August 18, 2017, 07:51:02 pm »

.500 ball, much like the previous 2 decades

We're under .500
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TNRazorbacker

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #42 on: August 18, 2017, 10:52:41 pm »

The past is the best predictor if the future. No reason to expect that wouldn't be true here. Historically we are about a 7 win a year team. Thats average so some years a bit better, some worse. Thats assuming everything else stays the same such as conference association.
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TNRazorbacker

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #43 on: August 18, 2017, 11:12:46 pm »

if he is here 10 years and can't get an SEC title he needs to go. its time we start winning championships instead of the Texas bowl

No coach will win an SEC title here in the foreseeable future. This is primarily due to a talent deficit thats basically an issue of Geography and demographics- and those aren't changing any time soon.  No coach is going to change this outside of paying players.

It isn't impossible though. I've always said the stars would have to align just right to make it a possibility. Such as:

- Needs to be in an LSU and Alabama at home year and at least one in a down year. Nick Saban alone makes this very difficult at present because they don't really have down years.
- We need to have an older experienced team.
- We need to string together 2-3 extraordinary boon years for in state recruiting that pushes us into top 10ish recruiting rank territory in each.  - or-  top 15ish level recruiting with a Heisman quality QB.
- We need an all SEC caliber QB at least.

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Headhog32

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #44 on: August 18, 2017, 11:18:24 pm »

No coach will win an SEC title here in the foreseeable future. This is primarily due to a talent deficit thats basically an issue of Geography and demographics- and those aren't changing any time soon.  No coach is going to change this outside of paying players.

It isn't impossible though. I've always said the stars would have to align just right to make it a possibility. Such as:

- Needs to be in an LSU and Alabama at home year and at least one in a down year. Nick Saban alone makes this very difficult at present because they don't really have down years.
- We need to have an older experienced team.
- We need to string together 2-3 extraordinary boon years for in state recruiting that pushes us into top 10ish recruiting rank territory in each.  - or-  top 15ish level recruiting with a Heisman quality QB.
- We need an all SEC caliber QB at least.
CBP was going to win an SEC title here.  if he wouldn't have been so stupid and gotten fired. who knows what would have had happened by now??
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Porkchop#1

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #45 on: August 19, 2017, 02:32:56 pm »

This is the 10th year of Jeff Long's tenure- we have had 2 seasons with more than 8 wins, and 5 seasons with less than 8 wins.
But we are Long on integrity though...there is that.
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Headhog32

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #46 on: August 19, 2017, 02:38:18 pm »

But we are Long on integrity though...there is that.
let this be the year
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McKdaddy

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #47 on: August 19, 2017, 02:47:15 pm »

average of 7-8 wins a year, just like the program has been since joining the sec.
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HogHomer

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #48 on: August 19, 2017, 05:11:03 pm »

CBP was going to win an SEC title here.  if he wouldn't have been so stupid and gotten fired. who knows what would have had happened by now??
Ehhhhhh he could have won an SEC title but his recruiting left alot of deficiencies that would've been interesting to see how he wouldve fixed them if he could. Also his lack of quality assistants was a real problem and wasn't looking to get better.
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Porkchop#1

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Re: What is realistic over the next 10 seasons?
« Reply #49 on: August 19, 2017, 09:16:32 pm »

Ehhhhhh he could have won an SEC title but his recruiting left alot of deficiencies that would've been interesting to see how he wouldve fixed them if he could. Also his lack of quality assistants was a real problem and wasn't looking to get better.
But still there's that 21-5 run his last 2 years, a BCS game, a top 5 finish....a little better than what we've seen since he was fired.  Which I always thought was a bad idea.  A real bad idea.
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