6 wins needed and 6 wins coming

[Sanctified Swine]

Looking at the upcoming schedule, I see 6 more wins to finish the season - putting us at 9-7 SEC and 20-8 for the year. I also see us getting the 3 west vs 6 east game in the tourney which should be a win over Georgia and probably losing in the next making us 21-9

The 6 wins

South Carolina
Auburn
@Ole Miss
Alabama
Mississippi St
@Georgia

the 3 losses

@LSU
@Tennessee
Florida

Man our biggest SEC loss this year was by 5 points to LSU -- and we should have freaking beat MSU, BAMA, and Kentucky -- we had second half double digit leads on all those teams

[HogKong]

I agree with all, but I think we can beat Tenn on the road.  Man when you look on paper our schedule does not look that tough the rest of the way, but when you cannot hold leads who knows how we will finish.

[beerhogz]

r u on crack?

[Hogs4Ever]

I have a bad feeling that this team is going to fold like a rusty lawn-chair down the stretch.  The team has no clear leadership on the floor and a coach that does not know how to close games.

I really hope they prove me wrong but so far I've seen nothing to change my mind.

[toshortrock]

9-7?u on drugs again

[Sanctified Swine]

which games do you not see them winning out of those?

[Tomhog™]

I can't see us winning at Ole Miss.  We are not a road team.  We should be able to beat Georgia on the road, but that's it.  I agree with the 3 losses.  I feel we'll probably lose one more of the winnable games (Bama at home maybe) at least.  Likely to finish 7-9 for the season and 18 wins again.  Will get an NIT bid. 

I would love to go 9-7, but I just don't see enough consistency and leadership to string that many wins...

[hogsanity]

If we cant beat Ole Miss on the road then we can beat alot of the teams we have left. 

[HogHeathen]

I have a bad feeling that this team is going to fold like a rusty lawn-chair down the stretch.  The team has no clear leadership on the floor and a coach that does not know how to close games.

I really hope they prove me wrong but so far I've seen nothing to change my mind.

A rusty lawn chair would be hard to fold...  Now unfolding would be tough...

[Sanctified Swine]

We dominated Ole Miss in game one and they are fading fast and have lost 4 straight. I think this is a win. I also think Alabama stole onw from us in OT in their house. This will be a win for us as well.

[othermac]

we will beat florida at home, mark it down fellas, we will win that one too. and if we roll into lsu with some mo, that will be a buzzer beater again.

[GAHOG]

The way we can blow leads especially on the road, I think 6 wins may be a stretch

[RealSmartGuy]

You've got Stan winning 2 games on the road, that is almost his total for 4 years, Stan will find a way to lose, Join the DARKSIDE

FIRE STAN NOW!!

[tulsahog36]

hogs4ever, i agree 100%

[Sanctified Swine]

I know we hate continually hearing how close we are, but dang it -- we are. I am certain we can beat Ole miss and Georgia ON THE ROAD. They are really weak. On top of that, getting Auburn, SC and MIsstake all teams with losing records coming into our place - the second half of the season -- thats five wins right there. Bama is going down for number 6

[Hogs4Ever]

I have a bad feeling that this team is going to fold like a rusty lawn-chair down the stretch.  The team has no clear leadership on the floor and a coach that does not know how to close games.

I really hope they prove me wrong but so far I've seen nothing to change my mind.

A rusty lawn chair would be hard to fold...  Now unfolding would be tough...

How about "fall apart like a cheap lawn-chair"?  Everyone knows what that's like! 

[hogfancb]

we will beat florida at home, mark it down fellas, we will win that one too. and if we roll into lsu with some mo, that will be a buzzer beater again.

Go to LSU on a roll with some mo?  We play South Carolina and then LSU.  Not much time for a roll.

[Tomhog™]

We dominated Ole Miss in game one and they are fading fast and have lost 4 straight. I think this is a win. I also think Alabama stole onw from us in OT in their house. This will be a win for us as well.

Home and away are two different teams over the past few seasons.  Look at how we beat Auburn at home and they absolutely trashed us at their place last year with the same players.  I'm not convinced they can win against sub-mediocre teams on the road yet.

[WILL CLINTON]

We lose vs. Bama, Tenn, Florida, LSU, and maybe Miss. ST.  SC is not a given, hell the only 2 that are, IMO, are Georgia and Auburn, every other one will be a dogfight. 

[HogPsych]

Winning @ Miss and @ Georgia highly unlikely - but stranger things have happened - just not o Heath's teams.  They had to have that MState game - no excuses there - and one of the bama/Ken when we dominated and didn't have guts enough to seal the deal. 

[MCPeePants]

We lose vs. Bama, Tenn, Florida, LSU, and maybe Miss. ST.  SC is not a given, hell the only 2 that are, IMO, are Georgia and Auburn, every other one will be a dogfight. 

I don't think there's any way we lose to this Mississippi St. team at home. On the other hand, I don't think any road game can be counted as a given win, including Georgia. Georgia's better than Mississippi State.

The way I see it:

2 almost definite wins: v. Auburn, v. Miss. St.

2 almost definite losses: @ LSU, @Tennessee

2 probable, but not definite, wins: v. Alabama, v. South Car.

1 probable, but not definite, loss: v. Florida

2 that could go either way: @Mississippi, @Georgia

I think we'll split those 2 "either way" games and go 5-4 to finish at 19-10 and 8-8 and we'll need at least 1 and maybe 2 wins in the SEC tournament to persuade the selection committee to take a 5th SEC team behind LSU, FLA, TEN, and KENTUCKY.

[Anthony McReynolds]

Hey man if we finish 6-3 are record would be 20-9 not 20-8 we have lost 6 and stand at 14-6.But I think we finish 22-7

[Sanctified Swine]

yeah my bad on the record -- that puts us at 21-10 after the SEC tourney in my book. We will win the 3 verse 6 game in the opening round but I think we bite it in the semi's

[Biggus Piggus]

We can win 20+ games and still not have beaten ANYBODY, unless Kansas comes through for us, and that's kinda weak given it was November and they were starting all those freshmen.

We need to win some real games.

[dj shanon "Notshavin" smeya]

we will beat florida at home, mark it down fellas, we will win that one too. and if we roll into lsu with some mo, that will be a buzzer beater again.

What???

[jrw11475]

The first and only step should be beating SC this weekend.  We will look forward after that. 

[mbgrulz]

if you look at us on paper, we are better than all but UCONN so far. we just dont know how to win.

here are our loses IMO.

@LSU
@Ole Miss (i know we should beat them, but it is on the road)
Florida
@Tennessee
@UGA (they have played a lot of teams tough)

that gets us to 7-9

we have a good chance to drop 5 out of the next 6 games we play.

[Sanctified Swine]

or win 5 of the next 6.... we are a crazy team. Our biggest SEC loss is by 5 to LSU. We had double digit second half leads against Bama, KY and Mistake. We are both really good and really bad. But, I think we are turning the corner.

[mbgrulz]

weve been turning the corner for 2 years. im tired of that BS. "really good" is a team that ends up in the right side of the W and L column. the important part is that we blew the leads, not that we were ahead.

[iCalledThatHogBrotha!]

I have a bad feeling that we will still be down tomorrow vs SC, then we will go to LSU and get hammered.

[three]

Everyone talks about how close we are, and I agree.  Here's the problem, we've been "close" for two years.  Last year they lost 5 games by 5 points or less.  This year, they're already at 4.  I'm not saying this team is "special' enough to go to the final four, but they are talented enough to challenge LSU for the West, and possibly for the league.  The fact that they aren't, and that they CONTINUE to find ways to lose the SAME WAY they lost last year, all points to one problem, the coach. 

Let's take a look at these WINS you've already given us, and look beyond the records. 

1.  South Carolina- a tough minded team coached by a better coach than Stan Heath.  Arkasnas is at home and is more talented, but Stan will get outcoached by Odom, and they will lose.  SC played TN tough for a good part of that game, and only lost to Kentucky b/c of the greatest shot of Rondo's life.  SC is better than us, simply because of coaching.  Sorry, I chalk that up as a L.

2.  Auburn-Check, that's a W

3. AT Ole Miss- Yes, they're struggling.  But, they played LSU just as close as we did, they beat Miss. St., we didn't, and they beat Bama in Tuscaloosa handedly, and Davis played in the first 10 minutes of that one.  We couldn't beat them in 45 Davis-less minutes!  They're tougher at home than you think, that's a toss up, and Ole Miss gets the nod b/c Stan and Co. can't win on the road......still.

4.  Alabama-don't see it happening.  By this point you've potentially lost 5 of the last 6 games, at that point, this team will fold.  They'll be flying about as high as a led balloon by the time this game rolls around, and Stan will be getting Booed out the building by 12,000 strong.

5.  Mississippi State- I actually agree with this one.  I think Modica will have a big game on Senior Day, Brewer will feed off that, and Ferguson may even have a whole game where he doesn't act like a moron.  I think they embarass State at home.

6.  At Georgia- I think they CAN win this game pretty decisively......but I don't think they will, it's on the road, and they'll lose composure just like they always do.  That one is another toss up, sorry.

You are right on all the losses.  Here's the backbone of what I'm saying, Stan will get out coached by Odom, Brady, Barnes, Donovan, possibly Gottfried, and Pearl, his team will quit in a lot of those games, partly due to their lack of intensity, partly due to their coach's.  Watch this team tomorrow, EVERYBODY.  I've seen the looks in their eyes, and heard the discord in their voices.  They doubt eachother, their coaches, and themselves.  This is a scary position this team is in right now, and things COULD get really bad. But the bottom line is this, Stan Heath has been outcoached in every single loss in Conference play.  All the experts believe this team is one of if not the most talented team in the SEC, and the reason that hasn't translated into wins is really quite simple, coaching, and that's why these 6 wins you claim, won't happen.  I hope they do, believe me I pray that they do, but I'm cursed as a realist, and I don't see it happening.  They've been "close" for a while, the reason they're not "good" is because of the coach.  When a team gets in trouble, especially on the road, they look to the coach.  Even the greatest players turn to their coach for help.  When this team turns to Coach Heath, he's as lost, and in some cases more so, as they are.  That is the fundamental problem, and will continue to be as long as HeathBar is coaching.  I hate it, but it's the truth.         

[VoR]

until last sunday I would have agreed, but right now, unless one of the players stands up and takes a leadership stand, the best I see us going is 5-4, I know who I would like to see take a stand, I think if Hill would take an aggressive stand on court and with the players we could easily go 7-2 down the stretch, but I don't really think Hill has that assurance yet where he can take over the game, I wish he could get a few 1 on 1 lessons with Corliss.

[Sanctified Swine]

They have gotten consistantly better each year - and I believe will continue to improve. What you call realism, I call pessimism. I see things improving and the bottom line of w's and l's will not and does not contradict what I am saying. Here is to 21-10 and an invite to the BIG DANCE!

WPS

[Razorback88]

As bad as we have looked at times, I don't see how we could lose more than 4 of these games.  Florida, LSU, and Tenn will all be losses, but we are 10 times better than the other 6, with 4 of them at home.  I see probably 1 slip-up in those 6 should-be wins, and we finish 8-8.  Remember, 3 of our conference losses have been on the road, by a total of 7 points.  It won't be that way in BWA.

[three]

They have gotten consistantly better each year - and I believe will continue to improve. What you call realism, I call pessimism. I see things improving and the bottom line of w's and l's will not and does not contradict what I am saying. Here is to 21-10 and an invite to the BIG DANCE!

WPS

No, the bottom line of Ws and Ls does not contradict what you are saying.  But if you judged this team on the bottom line of Ws and Ls, they aren't any good at all.  All the wins are against lower tier teams. But, you and I both know this team is very talented, regardless of the wins.  You can't say Stan has improved each and every year when you look at the schedules he's played.  His very first season, they played the toughest schedule in the country.  Last year, they played the Cupcake schedule of the year.  Last year's win total was bulked up, just like his first year's loss total was bulked up.  If he had played last year's schedule his first year, I believe they would have gone 8-4 in non-conference play.  10-2 is not a drastic improvement.  Conversely, if they had played the schedule Heath faced in his first year last year, they would have gone 7-4 rather than 5-7.  So if you look at it that way, he's basically been about the same every single year, with minimal improvement each year.  If you disagree, that's fine, but let me ask you a question.  Do you think Tennessee has more talent on it's roster than Arkansas?  I don't, and yet in his first year, Bruce Pearl has that team in the top 25, after Buzz Peterson couldn't take them to the tournament once in 4, much like what Heath has done at Arkansas.  Peterson brought in talent, but couldn't win.  Sound like another coach in the SEC?

[Anti-OtisII]

Looking at the upcoming schedule, I see 6 more wins to finish the season - putting us at 9-7 SEC and 20-8 for the year. I also see us getting the 3 west vs 6 east game in the tourney which should be a win over Georgia and probably losing in the next making us 21-9

The 6 wins

South Carolina
Auburn
@Ole Miss
Alabama
Mississippi St
@Georgia

the 3 losses

@LSU
@Tennessee
Florida

Man our biggest SEC loss this year was by 5 points to LSU -- and we should have freaking beat MSU, BAMA, and Kentucky -- we had second half double digit leads on all those teams

Let's just say your predictions are right.  We will not have beaten any of the good (NCAAT bound) SEC teams.  An Arkansas team that only goes 9-7 in a truly TERRIBLE SEC conference this year should at best be a marginal NCAAT "bubble" team.  If they then manage to go into the SEC tournament and not beat any of those good (not great by any means) SEC teams (Florida, Kentucky, LSU, or Tennessee) then they don't get a NCAAT bid and really don't deserve one.  Unless Arkansas (or maybe Vandy or Bama) pick their game up and actually show something in the last month, the SEC doesn't deserve to have any more than 4 teams this year.

[Sanctified Swine]

I get ya three and don't disagree entirely. I would say that I don't pay a lot of attention to non-conference stuff, because schedules vary too much from team to team. I mostly pay attention to how a team is doing against the other teams in the conference. I would think our first goal would be to improve there...in the SEC WEST. We have. As long as our conference win totals go up each year, I am cool. I will be the first to say can the coach if our conference record decreases from one year to the next. He does not have the luxury to go backwards in any season until he has one the West, then he gets one year of grace...but until then, I am content with year to year improvement

[silvertip]

We can win 20+ games and still not have beaten ANYBODY, unless Kansas comes through for us, and that's kinda weak given it was November and they were starting all those freshmen.

We need to win some real games.

Hawgs are tied for 2nd in the SEC in # of wins vs RPI top-50 teams.

VS top 50:
TENN--3-2
FLA----2-1
HOGS--2-4
LSU----2-4
VAN----2-3
USC----2-6

KY, AL, AUB, & MSU each have ONE win vs top-50.
UGA and MISS have ZERO wins vs top-50.

FURTHERMORE, vs top-100 teams, Hawgs are 6th in # wins & tied with BAMA in W-L % vs top-100.

VS TOP-100:
FLA----7-2
TENN---7-3
KY-----7-6
LSU----6-5
AL------6-6
HOGS---5-5

All the other SEC teams have losing records vs top-100.

So, cheer up, Biggus & the rest of y'all worried about making the NCAAT. If the Hawgs finish 2nd in SEC-W at 9-7, they will be in. Their RPI & SOS are good enough.

[hogman64]

The posts that make the point we are so close because we have lost all these close games, I dont get ..........Admittedly, I dont have facts to quote, but isnt that  the case  with most all schools that have losing conference records year after year... each  year they can look back and say.....well we only lost those three by 8 points or those 4 by 10 points.. but the fact is we are losing, and have every year Stan has been here.. no one wants to hear how close the score was, it is time for wins, this is pathetic...there is a HUGE difference in winning and losing by 2, please dont boil it down to  merely 3 points..............

[VoR]

I'm sorry, but after 3 and 1/2 yrs, we should be beyond moral victories. What happens if you play and lose 30 games all by 1 pt, 10 yrs from now when someone looks at the record book are they going to see that you only lost by 1 pt each time, NO, they're going to see you were 0-30, and that's what matters.

[Reaganite]

I'm more of a football hog than a BB one, especially the way this team plays so answer me one question...

Why is there this huge desire to take a product that chokes to the big dance and have to endure the humiliation?

Just honestly wondering about that.

[Sanctified Swine]

its the same as cheering for the fb hogs to make it to a bowl game and get humiliated by Minnasota, UNLV....

[othermac]

we will beat florida at home, mark it down fellas, we will win that one too. and if we roll into lsu with some mo, that will be a buzzer beater again.

Go to LSU on a roll with some mo?  We play South Carolina and then LSU.  Not much time for a roll.

i cant read a schedule, i was thinking we played ole miss before we played lsu. so much for building momentum before lsu.

[othermac]

we will beat florida at home, mark it down fellas, we will win that one too. and if we roll into lsu with some mo, that will be a buzzer beater again.

What???

i believe we have the best team in the west. if stan can convince them they are the best team, we will be hard to beat. i am hoping that happens at lsu.

[three]

I get ya three and don't disagree entirely. I would say that I don't pay a lot of attention to non-conference stuff, because schedules vary too much from team to team. I mostly pay attention to how a team is doing against the other teams in the conference. I would think our first goal would be to improve there...in the SEC WEST. We have. As long as our conference win totals go up each year, I am cool. I will be the first to say can the coach if our conference record decreases from one year to the next. He does not have the luxury to go backwards in any season until he has one the West, then he gets one year of grace...but until then, I am content with year to year improvement

So are you saying you are satisfied with this team's progress or not?  I think it's an interesting debate right now, it's almost like 50/50 right now.  Half of the hog faithful thinks this team has made solid progress, and half were expecting that break out year Heath promised this season, and are furious it hasn't panned out.  Which are you?  I would assume you are satisfied with the progress, but I don't want to misinterpret.  I, personally, believe this team hast the talent to easily be second in the west, and it is my assumption they should be tied with LSU for first (I was impressed with LSU's win in BWA, Davis and Mitchell had bad games, and they still found a way to win, I don't put that on Stan).  What is your assessment?

[silvertip]

I'm more of a football hog than a BB one, especially the way this team plays so answer me one question...

Why is there this huge desire to take a product that chokes to the big dance and have to endure the humiliation?

Just honestly wondering about that.

I don't think this team will get to the big dance if they keep choking. Get a big win or 2 to get there---then they should win at least 1 in the NCAAT. Which would equal Nolan's NCAAT wins in his last 4 seasons.

[Sanctified Swine]

yo three

I am saying that as long as the team increases its win total in conference play each year we should wait to pull the plug. For instance, if we go 8-8 this year but 7-9 next year....see ya Stan. We should be making progress in the conference win totals every year until we win a championship.

Am I happy with the progress? I wished it were happening faster and I think it probably should be happeing faster with the kids we have. I just think as long as the team is doing what I stated above, we should grin and bear it. Some things take time and some coaches I am convinced take longer to develop teams and programs than others, but once they do its solid for al ong time. I am willign to wait, but only as long as I see year to year improvement.

The jury is still out on a guy like Bruce Pearle. Yeah he is making a big splash in year one, but that doesn't mean he will be able to sustain it over the long haul. All we have to do is look in our own backyard at Houston Nutt. Huge first year - but he didn't continue to improve the program. In fact it has gone backwards. So early success doen not mean sustained success. I would rather it be a slow and steady climb to greatness, than a occasional flashes of greatness sprinkled in between cylces of decline

[lilpiggy]

this basketball would be i think 100% the other way. when i watched the uk game, first half they could have won against almost anyone. the ability to fight comes within, its heart, i dont see that.i am a hog, luv too watch them, but i get so upset because our kids have not learned that there are 2 half's to a game. i am praying and hoping these wake up before its too late and our season is over, yes we are in second place in conf. hard to be excited about that when we have not played in a week, i want to step up an earn it.
come on hogs lets get it on.