Some thoughts on the 2016 Volleyball season (long)

[psycHOGlogist]

Well, in terms of W-L record, the season was pretty epically bad. We ended up 9-21, which is one of the worst records for Arkansas volleyball that I can recall. There might have been a similar record during one of Coach Poole's last few years when he had a rash of injuries, and maybe in Pulliza's first year, but being below .500 is actually anomalous for our volleyball program.

This was a senior laden team, so why was the W-L record so poor? I have some thoughts on that.

1. No one counted on losing the best player on the team to injury in preseason. Pilar injured her knee on the first day of preseason and could not practice or play throughout the large majority of the pre-SEC schedule. Apparently, she could have played for part of the SEC slate of games, but at that point there was no salvaging the season. She has (reportedly) agreed to medically redshirt the year and will play her final season of eligibility next year. That is potentially great news for a team that will be incredibly young next season (more on that later). Losing Pilar meant not only the the best offensive weapon on the team was now gone (and make no mistake, she is an All-American caliber player), but that other players immediately needed to be moved into other positions -- in some cases, positions that they had never played before (notably, moving Harbin to OH, when she had spent all spring playing middle, and her previous time in the program was playing MB and RS). This, on top of the technical changes to technique and strategy that the players were being asked to make, was a recipe for early season disaster. And that's pretty much what we got.

2. The pre-conference season was basically a nightmare. Not counting the exhibition game against a Canadian team, we were 2-10. The schedule was pretty stout and included the #1 (Nebraska), #4 (Kansas), and #25 (Kansas St) teams in the country, along with very solid programs like MO State, Maryland, and Xavier. Plenty of other SEC teams never even sniffed a match as good as any one of these in their preseason slates (Tennessee, USC, UGA, Ole Miss, Mississippi State all played hugely cupcake schedules and inflated their overall records). However, we also lost to Oral Roberts, so it's not really fair to say that all our preseason losses were to tough teams. (FWIW, though they are good, a "typical" Arkansas team should beat MO State, Maryland, and Xavier, and maybe knock of Kansas State at Barnhill.) The only teams we beat were Chicago St, who is a perennial doormat, and UMKC, also a cupcake. And we lost games to both of them, which is sort of embarrassing by itself.

3. Having a freshman setter is hard. Now, this was a choice. The staff initially started out with a 6-2 lineup, using Rachel Rippee (Fr) and Adrien Wohlschlaeger (Sr) as setters, and Dapic and Fernanda Guitron as the RS's in the front row. This was a completely understandable move for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that both of our starting middles (Jones, Jusino) are WAY more comfortable attacking in front of the setter rather than hitting slides behind her. If you play a 6-2, your middles never have to hit behind the setter. However, the setting, blocking, and RS attacking were not good enough in that system, and it wasn't too long before Coach Watson decided that he was handing over the reins of running the 5-1 offense to the freshman, Rippee. In my opinion, this was the right decision - though I think Watson made it for different reasons. He's a numbers guy, and I assume he had statistics telling him that the team's numbers were better with Rachel in there. I thought it was the right thing to do because for the next couple of years, Rachel is the setter. You might as well get her the reps. If you watched any of the tv features during the ESPN3/SEC+ games, you know that Rachel enrolled early last spring, but hadn't played any volleyball for about a year before that due to a shoulder injury. Apparently, she looked just horrible at the start of spring practice (to the point where Watson wondered how she'd even gotten a schollie). However, with reps and coaching, by the end of the spring she was the best option, beating out last year's starter (Wohlschlaeger) and the 2014 starter (Hankenson) -- each of whom have some good qualities and some limitations. But having Rippee running the show as a true Fr was always going to be tough, and it showed early on. She still struggles with the consistency of her back sets, but that's fixable with another spring and more hard work. She's got some good upside and is a super competitive kid.

4. But there's a bright side. As the year went on, the team got significantly better. We finished with an SEC record of 7-11, which is exactly what we had last year. In 2015, we started out white hot and then collapsed as Robbie lost the team. This year, we started with a 3-0 sweep of a hapless LSU team and then proceeded to lose our next 8 conference matches. Ouch. However, half of those losses were to Mizzou (x2), Kentucky, and TAMU - all of whom are NCAA tournament teams, and Mizzou won the conference automatic tourney bid. We ended up winning 6 of our last 9 matches, including road wins at Miss St., UGA, and South Carolina (who had actually beaten Mizzou at home the week before). The losses were to Kentucky, Alabama (in Tuscaloosa - we played awful, honestly), and Florida. And in the FL match, we played fantastic (losing the first two sets 34-32 and 26-24) against a clearly better team. Those first two games were some of the best volleyball this team played all year. (Florida is the #11 national seed in the tourney.) To me, this improvement is a testament to the guts and attitude of the players (a very senior-laden team could have just packed it in and coasted through L after L) and the technical competence of the staff. The setting got better, which was to be expected as Rachel gained experience. But the blocking and defense also improved dramatically. The strategy of the hitters also got craftier and saw more success. Dapic's efficiency skyrocketed; Harbin's kill numbers grew and stayed high - she was robbed of all-conference recognition, imo; Jones turned around a horrible preseason to have great numbers during the conference season; Jusino became more of a threat offensively; both Jones and Jusino began hitting behind the setter with some effectiveness (though you could tell that neither of them was a natural, it worked often enough); Voelzke, who unlike Harbin can't jump out of the gym, got better at using the block to score points; and Valle's dig numbers started to look more like the libero who made last year's SEC All-Freshman team (and she ended up, I think, fourth in conference in digs behind some folks who will be All-American candidates). It was altogether an impressive turnaround, and I was really happy for the team. Time just sort of ran out on them during the season.

5. Now, looking ahead -- next year, things will be very interesting. We lose virtually our entire offense: Jones, Jusino, Harbin, Voelzke, and Dapic are all done. That's literally our starting 5 hitters. Not good, especially when you consider that the only non-senior hitter who got much of any playing time as the season progressed was Fr Reagan Robinson, who played for Voelzke when she was struggling. Robinson has some good qualities, but she is short (listed at 5'11" but I don't believe it), a bit of a blocking liability, and will really need to develop in order to be a go-to OH in the SEC. However, we do get Pilar back. Returning an All-American caliber player is not something to sneeze at. Our other two non-senior hitters were Guitron at OPP, who seemed to be injured during the second half of the year, and Kelly O'Brien at MB, a transfer from Wyoming. Both have some potential, but both are also playing in knee braces following ACL surgeries. Hopefully they can get healthier and lose the braces for next year. Coach Watson signed a large recruiting class. I've written about most of them in other threads, but here's a quick recap:

- Hailey Dirrigl - absolute stud; 6'2" OH from Phoenix, originally committed to Watson at ASU, flipped to us (ASU, ironically enough, has fired the person they hired to replace Watson after ONE season - total trainwreck), I'm pencilling her in to start next year.

- Logan Brown - very good 6'0" OH from Dallas area; not as dynamic as Dirrigl, but well-trained and a good six-rotation player. Will probably contribute next year.

- Elizabeth Pamphile - 6'1"-ish athletic MB from Orlando area. Played for a top junior club and will probably need to step into the starting lineup. She has the potential to be good, but not sure how she'll look right off the bat.

- Dominique White - 6'2" OH/RS player from Ohio; versatile player with terrific athleticism that needs to work some on her technique, but this staff should really be able to help her develop. Lots and lots of potential here; will help on the blocking front.

- Paige Johnson, Klaire Trainor, and Kenzie Stinnett - 3 players who were good, undersized OH's for their HS/Club teams, but who will all most likely end up playing defensive specialist/libero for the Hogs. All are very athletic, scrappy, high VB IQ players that could turn into good defenders. We were woefully short of defensive subs this year, and the infusion of these 3 will help. Trainor is an Arkansas kid, and Johnson and Stinnett are both from Missouri.

- Kiley Tiller - a 6'3" MB/RS from Missouri. Have seen some video on her and she looks to have a good arm and a big block, but really needs to develop her lateral speed and agility, unless she plays on the right side. Played for Ozark Jrs, but will take some time to develop into an SEC level player, imo. Again, this staff should be able to get the most out of her. Plus she has uncoachable height!

I am really, REALLY hoping that the staff will be signing a transfer MB (or two?) for the coming year. With Pilar and Hailey on the OH, Rachel setting, and maybe Brown, White, Guitron, or Tiller (?) on the right, we have some good arms. We will only have O'Brien in the middle, along with Pamphile (or Tiller?) as MB's on the roster. Maybe White could play in the middle? Considering the size and caliber of MB's that other SEC teams have, I think we will need more talent with experience in that position.

Watson already has 3 2018 commits as well - two kids from Texas (1 MB, 1 OH) and a setter from Florida. All look pretty solid to me.

So ... the future looks very bright to me, though next year is likely to be pretty bumpy as the 8 (at least) newcomers get acclimated to college level play. But Watson clearly seems to be able to develop players, and he is doing pretty well on the recruiting front so far, as well. I think we will still be bottom half of the conference next year (unless Pilar can carry the team on her back more than I expect is reasonable), but going forward I think the trajectory should continue moving up. At least that's what my rose-colored glasses tell me right now. :-)

WPS!

[sw403]

Thanks  Sounds good