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Atlanta Braves 2014

Started by ucahogfan, February 04, 2014, 04:04:30 pm

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ucahogfan

Figure with spring training just weeks away that I would go ahead and start the new thread.

Looks like we know who the new face of the franchise will be with the Braves locking up Freeman for what I consider a bargain at 8/125.  J-Hey signed today as well for 13 million over 2 years, but will get big time money after that deal is up.  Kimbrel is the only player still in arbitration.  I think Simmons needs a big time deal as well because he is that good defensively.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10403089/freddie-freeman-atlanta-braves-agree-contract-extension

Hog1966

Great to see Freeman locked up long term! Agree about Simmons, middle infield is by far the Braves weakest area.


 

Baseball Hog

There is a legitimate chance that we could field a full lineup, starting pitchers 1-5, and go 5 deep in the bullpen with no player 30+ years old...

OnTheHillHogFan

Heyward should get around 15 million a year when he signs in two years. I would bet that Kimbrel ends up going somewhere else.
Quote from: JaketheSnake on November 07, 2012, 10:28:17 am
Shoot the Obama deer... the ones that come for the free corn.
Quote from: ReddieHawg on November 06, 2013, 09:38:24 am
Do you happen to have any rapping skills? I think we could set you up with DJ Khaled and you could make a song entitled, "All I Do Is Bitch"

ucahogfan

Quote from: GreenbrierHogFan on February 05, 2014, 03:26:44 am
Heyward should get around 15 million a year when he signs in two years. I would bet that Kimbrel ends up going somewhere else.
Yep, with our payroll below 100 million, there is no way we will be able to keep everyone.  The TV deal we have will come back to haunt us until it is done and our ownership doesn't seem too concerned with this organization.

I think our current budget is around 90-95 million.  I'm not asking that ownership open up the pockets to Dodger/Yankee level, but an organization with the prestige/following that the Braves have in the Atlanta market should at least have a 125-150 million payroll a year.

OnTheHillHogFan

Quote from: ucahogfan on February 05, 2014, 07:25:53 am
Yep, with our payroll below 100 million, there is no way we will be able to keep everyone.  The TV deal we have will come back to haunt us until it is done and our ownership doesn't seem too concerned with this organization.

I think our current budget is around 90-95 million.  I'm not asking that ownership open up the pockets to Dodger/Yankee level, but an organization with the prestige/following that the Braves have in the Atlanta market should at least have a 125-150 million payroll a year.
I agree. Buster Olney wrote in his daily blog today that he doesn't think we will keep Heyward or Kimbrel. I agree with him on Kimbrel but not Heyward. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't trade Kimbrel this summer.
Quote from: JaketheSnake on November 07, 2012, 10:28:17 am
Shoot the Obama deer... the ones that come for the free corn.
Quote from: ReddieHawg on November 06, 2013, 09:38:24 am
Do you happen to have any rapping skills? I think we could set you up with DJ Khaled and you could make a song entitled, "All I Do Is Bitch"

MojoHog

Simmons definitely became one of my favorite players last year. I love the way he plays defense. Also here are the Military appreciation unis. Look perfect. Not to much and just enough. FearTheChop

[attachment deleted by admin]
Go Hogs!
Go Pack Go!

OnTheHillHogFan

The spring training hat is also very cool. They will wear it for BP and a few games throughout the year as well.
Quote from: JaketheSnake on November 07, 2012, 10:28:17 am
Shoot the Obama deer... the ones that come for the free corn.
Quote from: ReddieHawg on November 06, 2013, 09:38:24 am
Do you happen to have any rapping skills? I think we could set you up with DJ Khaled and you could make a song entitled, "All I Do Is Bitch"

ucahogfan

Quote from: GreenbrierHogFan on February 05, 2014, 01:17:18 pm
I agree. Buster Olney wrote in his daily blog today that he doesn't think we will keep Heyward or Kimbrel. I agree with him on Kimbrel but not Heyward. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't trade Kimbrel this summer.
I think we could keep Heyward because his big money deal will come when JUpton's contract comes off the book and maybe Uggla's as well.  If both of those come off the books, that frees up about 30 mil a year.

Hog1966

February 06, 2014, 01:54:49 pm #9 Last Edit: February 06, 2014, 05:13:22 pm by Hog1966
Yes, Uggla's comes of in 2015...

Though I would throw this in. It is a regularly updated link to the Braves contract info.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/atlanta-braves/

pigture perfect

I hope the Yankees don't decide they want Kimbrell. I hate them. Braves need to lock him up.
The 2 biggest fools in the world: He who has an answer for everything and he who argues with him.  - original.<br /> <br />The first thing I'm going to ask a lawyer (when I might need one) is, "You don't post on Hogville do you?"

OnTheHillHogFan

Quote from: pigture perfect on February 08, 2014, 03:30:34 pm
I hope the Yankees don't decide they want Kimbrell. I hate them. Braves need to lock him up.
I doubt we do and I don't think we should IMO. He'll get way too much money for a guy that only pitches about 70 innings a year.
Quote from: JaketheSnake on November 07, 2012, 10:28:17 am
Shoot the Obama deer... the ones that come for the free corn.
Quote from: ReddieHawg on November 06, 2013, 09:38:24 am
Do you happen to have any rapping skills? I think we could set you up with DJ Khaled and you could make a song entitled, "All I Do Is Bitch"

ucahogfan

Quote from: GreenbrierHogFan on February 08, 2014, 07:21:41 pm
I doubt we do and I don't think we should IMO. He'll get way too much money for a guy that only pitches about 70 innings a year.
I almost think we should pay him what he wants as long as it is within reason.  According to Baseball Reference, his WAR each of the last 2 seasons was 3.3 which is incredible for a closer.  At the rate Kimbrel is on, he will go down as the best closer in the history of the game.  Mo made his living on the best cutter in the history of the game while Hoffman had nastiest changeups, but Kimbrel has 2 unhittable pitches in a high 90s fastball that he can pinpoint and has an upper 80s slider that reminds me of the Big Unit.

Right now, 1 WAR is going for about 5-6 million on the free agency market if I remember correctly.  That would mean Kimbrel would be worth between 15-20 million per year if he were eligible for free agency.  We will get him for probably 6-8 million this year for another 3+ WAR season.  The one thing working in our favor is that we still have 2 more years of team control after 2014 and can hold out for a sweet package if we do decide to move him in the next 2 years.

 

OnTheHillHogFan

Quote from: ucahogfan on February 08, 2014, 07:39:45 pm
The one thing working in our favor is that we still have 2 more years of team control after 2014 and can hold out for a sweet package if we do decide to move him in the next 2 years.
Thats what I think we should do. Move him this summer or next and get several good prospects because our farm system right now is not very good because of the past 2 drafts and the fact that all of our top prospects from the past 4 years are on the big league team in Freeman, Heyward, Simmons, Teharan etc.
Quote from: JaketheSnake on November 07, 2012, 10:28:17 am
Shoot the Obama deer... the ones that come for the free corn.
Quote from: ReddieHawg on November 06, 2013, 09:38:24 am
Do you happen to have any rapping skills? I think we could set you up with DJ Khaled and you could make a song entitled, "All I Do Is Bitch"

Baseball Hog

If we were to trade Kimbrell this season (we won't) it would have to be for a loaded deal.  I'm talking Jurickson Profar ish...

OnTheHillHogFan

Quote from: Baseball Hog on February 09, 2014, 11:25:14 am
If we were to trade Kimbrell this season (we won't) it would have to be for a loaded deal.  I'm talking Jurickson Profar ish...
It wouldn't surprise me if we did. You can find good relievers for pretty cheap. Yes they aren't going to be as elite as Kimbrel but IMO he isn't worth paying close to 20 million a year.
Quote from: JaketheSnake on November 07, 2012, 10:28:17 am
Shoot the Obama deer... the ones that come for the free corn.
Quote from: ReddieHawg on November 06, 2013, 09:38:24 am
Do you happen to have any rapping skills? I think we could set you up with DJ Khaled and you could make a song entitled, "All I Do Is Bitch"

ucahogfan

Quote from: Baseball Hog on February 09, 2014, 11:25:14 am
If we were to trade Kimbrell this season (we won't) it would have to be for a loaded deal.  I'm talking Jurickson Profar ish...
Yep, if the Braves move Kimbrel for anything less than a top 5 prospect plus another one or two top 100 prospects this year then our front office personel should all be fired.  With the amount of team control Kimbrel still has remaining means we can be choosy about what we do.

Quote from: GreenbrierHogFan on February 09, 2014, 12:36:51 pm
It wouldn't surprise me if we did. You can find good relievers for pretty cheap. Yes they aren't going to be as elite as Kimbrel but IMO he isn't worth paying close to 20 million a year.
Especially our farm system always seems to churn out solid relievers the last few years.  Heck, we had 2 of the best LH relievers in the game go down last year and brought up Avilan who was the best LH reliever last year.  We can put together a really good pen for about 10-15 million a year.  I definitely wouldn't let Kimbrel walk in free agency and would trade him before he becomes a free agent because we have had some weak drafts the last couple of years.

ucahogfan

After a stellar rookie campaign, the Braves have locked up Teheran for the long term for 6 years and 32.4 million with a club option for 2020 which could take it up to 7 year and 44.4 million.  This is a steal of a contract if Teheran just keeps at his rookie level.  He was worth 3.2 WAR so he could be worth about 22 WAR over the next 7 years without improvement which he will only get better and the Braves will be paying at most about 2 million per win which is well below market value.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10457102/atlanta-braves-agree-six-year-deal-starter-julio-teheran

Just have to wonder which young player is next to get locked up long term.  Really hope it is Simmons.

Baseball Hog

Yeah that was a great contract.  Gotta love these kids that are willing to sign for less earlier to avoid arbitration and FA.

Baseball Hog

Locked up Kimbrel today.  4 years $42 million with a $13 million option for a 5th year.  Pretty good value here.  Would love to sign Simmons now.

OnTheHillHogFan

Quote from: Baseball Hog on February 16, 2014, 03:22:48 pm
Locked up Kimbrel today.  4 years $42 million with a $13 million option for a 5th year.  Pretty good value here.  Would love to sign Simmons now.
That's big a and it all happened in the last 4 days or so. Now
It's time to get Simmons locked up like UCA said.
Quote from: JaketheSnake on November 07, 2012, 10:28:17 am
Shoot the Obama deer... the ones that come for the free corn.
Quote from: ReddieHawg on November 06, 2013, 09:38:24 am
Do you happen to have any rapping skills? I think we could set you up with DJ Khaled and you could make a song entitled, "All I Do Is Bitch"

ucahogfan

Quote from: Baseball Hog on February 16, 2014, 03:22:48 pm
Locked up Kimbrel today.  4 years $42 million with a $13 million option for a 5th year.  Pretty good value here.  Would love to sign Simmons now.
This is a great deal for the Hogs.  Could be an average of 11 mil per year if we do exercise his club option which means he would be worth about 1.8 WAR per year on the free agency market.  He has been worth about 3.3 WAR each of the last 2 years so we are basically getting about 1.5 WAR a year for free as the free agency market stands right now.  Throwing big money at a closer is risky, but Kimbrel is still pretty young and has two plus pitches in case one of them fails.

Here is an article by ESPN Sweetspot about the deal:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/44376/braves-should-remain-force-well-into-future

Here would be my next 4 deals:

Andrelton Simmons - 8/60 million
Kris Medlen - 5/65 million
Mike Minor - 6/80 million
J-Hey - Add another 5 and 75 to his current deal


We have quietly spent about a quarter of a billion this offseason locking up some of our young core to long term contracts and make sure they stay Braves through their primes of mid 20s to early 30s.

OnTheHillHogFan

If they sign Simmons to a long deal I doubt they sign Heyward in two years. Just don't see how we can afford it with them probably wanting to sign Minor and Medlen as well
Quote from: JaketheSnake on November 07, 2012, 10:28:17 am
Shoot the Obama deer... the ones that come for the free corn.
Quote from: ReddieHawg on November 06, 2013, 09:38:24 am
Do you happen to have any rapping skills? I think we could set you up with DJ Khaled and you could make a song entitled, "All I Do Is Bitch"

ucahogfan

Quote from: GreenbrierHogFan on February 16, 2014, 11:28:51 pm
If they sign Simmons to a long deal I doubt they sign Heyward in two years. Just don't see how we can afford it with them probably wanting to sign Minor and Medlen as well
I think every team is getting 25 million more in revenue from national TV money so we could put all that money into player salaries and raise our payroll to about 120 which I think would allow us to keep all of our top young core.

Our ownership group also has a lot of money, but the Braves aren't a priority to them.  Moving to the new stadium might mean they open up the payroll and keep the young core so it will be interesting to see.  Really think we need to keep both.

Now what do you do with JUpton when his contract expires in 2015?  Or Chris Johnson?

 

Baseball Hog

I want to see what J-Hey does in the next year or so before I offer him a 5/75 type deal.  He just hasn't proven he can stay healthy.  I'd much rather lock up Simmons, or spend the money on a 2B when Uggs comes off the books.

I wouldn't have a problem with giving Johsnon something like 4/28.

As for JUp, I certainly wouldn't give him what he'll probably be asking (20+ per).  I guess it really depends on how he plays these next couple years.

ucahogfan

SIMMONS!  He is getting a 7/58 deal which will be worth purely based on his defense alone.  He finished 4th in the NL in WAR last year.  Just imagine if he becomes a threat with the bat.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10489179/andrelton-simmons-latest-member-atlanta-braves-get-extension

Just since February 8, here is what our front office has done:

Locked up Freeman for 8/135
Bought out Heyward's last 2 arbitration years at 2/13
Locked up Teheran for 6/32.4 and could be 7/44.4
Locked up Kimbrel for 4/42 and could be 5/55
Locked up Simmons for 7/58

If all of the team options are exercised, that is over 300 million committed to a young excellent core.  Probably means it is only a matter of time until we lock up Minor and/or Medlen and/or Beachy.

gutshot

Quote from: ucahogfan on February 20, 2014, 11:47:58 am
SIMMONS!  He is getting a 7/58 deal which will be worth purely based on his defense alone.  He finished 4th in the NL in WAR last year.  Just imagine if he becomes a threat with the bat.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10489179/andrelton-simmons-latest-member-atlanta-braves-get-extension

Just since February 8, here is what our front office has done:

Locked up Freeman for 8/135
Bought out Heyward's last 2 arbitration years at 2/13
Locked up Teheran for 6/32.4 and could be 7/44.4
Locked up Kimbrel for 4/42 and could be 5/55
Locked up Simmons for 7/58



Not to mention my favorite move of them all...Frank Wren's extension.  Fredi Gonzalez as well. 


OnTheHillHogFan

Quote from: ucahogfan on February 20, 2014, 11:47:58 am
SIMMONS!  He is getting a 7/58 deal which will be worth purely based on his defense alone.  He finished 4th in the NL in WAR last year.  Just imagine if he becomes a threat with the bat.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10489179/andrelton-simmons-latest-member-atlanta-braves-get-extension

Just since February 8, here is what our front office has done:

Locked up Freeman for 8/135
Bought out Heyward's last 2 arbitration years at 2/13
Locked up Teheran for 6/32.4 and could be 7/44.4
Locked up Kimbrel for 4/42 and could be 5/55
Locked up Simmons for 7/58

If all of the team options are exercised, that is over 300 million committed to a young excellent core.  Probably means it is only a matter of time until we lock up Minor and/or Medlen and/or Beachy.
Pretty much guarantees that Heyward won't be here after the 2015 season. He will get close to 20 million a year.
Quote from: JaketheSnake on November 07, 2012, 10:28:17 am
Shoot the Obama deer... the ones that come for the free corn.
Quote from: ReddieHawg on November 06, 2013, 09:38:24 am
Do you happen to have any rapping skills? I think we could set you up with DJ Khaled and you could make a song entitled, "All I Do Is Bitch"

ucahogfan

Quote from: GreenbrierHogFan on February 20, 2014, 05:51:14 pm
Pretty much guarantees that Heyward won't be here after the 2015 season. He will get close to 20 million a year.
Wren was on Hot Stove on MLB Network on Monday I believe and said that the only reason J-Hey didn't get a 5+ year type deal was because he really hasn't had a full season healthy and they don't know his true value yet.

I do agree he probably won't be here past 2015, but you never know with us moving to a new stadium in 2017 and J-Hey being a Georgia boy.

OnTheHillHogFan

Quote from: ucahogfan on February 20, 2014, 05:55:14 pm
Wren was on Hot Stove on MLB Network on Monday I believe and said that the only reason J-Hey didn't get a 5+ year type deal was because he really hasn't had a full season healthy and they don't know his true value yet.

I do agree he probably won't be here past 2015, but you never know with us moving to a new stadium in 2017 and J-Hey being a Georgia boy.
I hope they can keep him but until he shows he can be healthy for a full season I just don't want to commit 80+ million to a player.


Also like you said earlier they need to lockup Minor, Medlen and Beachy. Though I think they might wait and see how Beachy does this season.
Quote from: JaketheSnake on November 07, 2012, 10:28:17 am
Shoot the Obama deer... the ones that come for the free corn.
Quote from: ReddieHawg on November 06, 2013, 09:38:24 am
Do you happen to have any rapping skills? I think we could set you up with DJ Khaled and you could make a song entitled, "All I Do Is Bitch"

Hog1966

Awesome job by the Braves in the off season!

ucahogfan

Quote from: GreenbrierHogFan on February 20, 2014, 06:04:01 pm
I hope they can keep him but until he shows he can be healthy for a full season I just don't want to commit 80+ million to a player.


Also like you said earlier they need to lockup Minor, Medlen and Beachy. Though I think they might wait and see how Beachy does this season.
Fully agree about not wanting to invest a lot of money in Heyward until he proves he can stay healthy for a season.  If he has a good season where he is healthy, I could see us offering him something like a 6/90 extension to keep him here as long as Freeman.

Very important to lock those 3 up, but make sure that Beachy is healthy and bounces back from TJ.  Medlen will be in his age 28 season.  Beachy will be in his age 27 and Minor will be in his age 26. 

Medlen is entering his 2nd year of arbitration and will make 5.8 mil this year.  I say we offer him something like a 6/80 type deal after this season and see if he takes it and keeps him a Brave through his prime.

Mike Minor won't be a free agent until after the 2017 season.  I say we offer him a Teheran type deal but it would have to probably be 60 million for 6 years and about a 12-15 million team option for the 7th year.

Brandon Beachy won't be a free agent until after the 2016 season.  He was dominate in 2012 until he went down with TJ and I expect him to have a huge 2014.  I think we could get him to sign something like a 6/55 type deal.

If all this goes as I would try to make it go, here is how our young core would look:

Freeman - 8/135
Heyward - 8/103
Simmons - 7/58
Teheran - 7/44.4
Kimbrel - 5/55
Medlen - 6/80
Minor - 7/75
Beachy - 6/55
Johnson - 4/32

That would be over 600 million handed out in long term extensions and the team payroll would probably have to expand to 125-150 million, but it would be fun to see something like this happen.

Baseball Hog

Man I love what we've done this offseason.  This is how great teams are built.

ucahogfan

This article states that McCann has been the best at framing pitches since 2008 while our two backups Doumit and Laird have been in the 5 worst at framing.  Is this really going to be an issue as it could mean about a 4 win swing?

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/44813/framing-pitches-new-study-cites-value

OnTheHillHogFan

Quote from: ucahogfan on March 07, 2014, 02:46:57 pm
This article states that McCann has been the best at framing pitches since 2008 while our two backups Doumit and Laird have been in the 5 worst at framing.  Is this really going to be an issue as it could mean about a 4 win swing?

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/44813/framing-pitches-new-study-cites-value
I hope Betancourt gets a shot because he could challenge Moliaas the bar defensive catcher according to Keith Law and a few other writers
Quote from: JaketheSnake on November 07, 2012, 10:28:17 am
Shoot the Obama deer... the ones that come for the free corn.
Quote from: ReddieHawg on November 06, 2013, 09:38:24 am
Do you happen to have any rapping skills? I think we could set you up with DJ Khaled and you could make a song entitled, "All I Do Is Bitch"

ucahogfan

Medlen went down with an apparent arm injury during his start against the Mets today.  Hopefully it isn't bad and we should find out what it is very soon.

Baseball Hog

That would be a huge blow.  He has an MRI today, preliminary signs are looking decent that TJ won't be necessary.

Hog1966

Minor has yet to make his spring debut as well due to shoulder soreness. Hope both their injuries are not significant.

Hog1966

Medlen underwent an MRI this afternoon, Braves doctors expect to look at the results tonight or early tomorrow....fingers crossed.

Hog1966

Sheesh. Now Beachy had problems with his right biceps today and is uncertain for the start of the season.  :puke:

Hog1966

March 11, 2014, 10:20:57 am #40 Last Edit: March 11, 2014, 10:38:54 am by Hog1966
MRI shows ligament issues and Medlen will get a second opinion with Dr Andrews.  :(

Baseball Hog

Probably lost Medlen.  That hurts big time.  Going to need to make a move now, get us a veteran that can put up a 4.2 ERA and eat some innings.

Hog1966

If he's out for the season they'll likely have to make a move. Santana is out there, but it will cost them. I know he is looking for a multi year contract, and to the best of my knowledge it will cost Atlanta their first round draft pick.

jrulz83

The injury bug seriously sucks!!

Maybe Medlen and Beachy can avoid surgery and somehow still have a positive impact on the Braves season.
Lenin is cautiously optimistic.

Hog1966

Well good news/bad news today. We were able to sign Santana, but we had to do so because there's a good chance Medlen will need Tommy John surgery.

ucahogfan

Hate that we have to forfeit our 1st round pick this year for a 1 year rental, but with injury problems to our rotation it was necessary.

PorkerOinker

Wren did an awesome job, locking guys in this offseason.
"America promises equal opportunity, not equal outcomes"-Paul Ryan

Hog1966

Found it interesting that they cut Garcia today considering the status of the rotation injury wise. I'm guessing they expect Floyd and Minor back fairly soon.

PorkerOinker

Quote from: Hog1966 on March 24, 2014, 04:12:51 pm
Found it interesting that they cut Garcia today considering the status of the rotation injury wise. I'm guessing they expect Floyd and Minor back fairly soon.

They ended up signing Aaron Harang, who while might not be in his prime is a better option than Garcia.
"America promises equal opportunity, not equal outcomes"-Paul Ryan

Baseball Hog

Unless we pull off a miracle, this season is probably going to be a wash, sadly to say.  Can't remember a team EVER losing two Cy Young candidates pre-season and still making the playoffs.  Honestly, I just hope to see a lot of guys grow (Teheran, Heyward, Wood, etc.).

Who knows though, if our offense can manage to be a top 5 in the NL we'll have a shot.