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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on January 05, 2013, 07:03:08 pm
My thought at the time was why not go for the FG, then try to play the toughest defense you have all day and get another drive to tie.

but throwing a 6 yd in when you need 11 for the 1st was a dumass move.

was thinking the same thing.  one he missed AJ WIDE OPEN for a TD.  then  you throw a 6 yard in on 4th and 11?!? didn't understand that call at all.  take the fg, try to hold them to a 3 and out, still have your two timeouts and the 2 minute warning, and if you get the ball back all you have to do is make it to their 35-ish yard line for a fg as opposed to having to go for a TD again if you dont get the 4th.  very odd decision.  thats how the cookie crumbles i guess

Huckleberry Pig

now i remember why i dont touch nfl games... pullin an 0-fer.  goodness.

 

McKdaddy

Quote from: McKdaddy on January 05, 2013, 06:44:13 pm
Webb can't be worse than Ponder, right? Frankly he'll probably be an improvement.

Yes, Webb can be worse.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

widespreadsooie

9-3 on the week. Want something to play tomorrow but don't like anything enough right now. Need convincing

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

I am not super confident with either line or the totals today.

I'm going Colts +7.5 / 3 units. Looking for late back door cover there. Over 47 in this one for 3 units

Skins +3 / 3 units.  Taking the home dog.

Over 46 in this one for three units

Four team parlay the same way for one unit

Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

Hooch

Man I had an awful Saturday. Screw Dalton, and stupidly bet Minn before knew ponder was out.

Like both dogs again today, but what the hell do I know.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Hooch on January 06, 2013, 10:28:02 am
Man I had an awful Saturday. Screw Dalton, and stupidly bet Minn before knew ponder was out.

Like both dogs again today, but what the hell do I know.

This really is a tough day to pick, and I am not in love with any of mine.  Season is winding down and I have been on a roll.  Had I been struggling as of late the only play I would be making today would be the over on the college game!
Let's make some waves.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: Hooch on January 06, 2013, 10:28:02 am
Man I had an awful Saturday. Screw Dalton, and stupidly bet Minn before knew ponder was out.

Like both dogs again today, but what the hell do I know.

that makes two of us.  made me remember why i don't touch NFL

WILL CLINTON

slept too late to get the Colts v Ravens picks in, but took the 2nd half line Ravens -3, and under 23, and got the Redskins picks down.

Also added Kent St +3 and over 63 straight up and parlayed, and also parlayed Bama -9 and over 40 in the BCS NC.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Huckleberry Pig

As I'm watching these games it seems like the NFL playoffs have the NBA playoff effect.  Defenses really step up their play and lock down opposing offenses.  I don't know what the O/U was in the bengals-texans game but surely with a 19-13 (32pts) score they were under it.  The total points for the GB-Vikings game was 34 and now the total score for this game will be 33.  Appears the Under in all these games would have put you in the $.  The D's definitely look sharper. 

Just something I noticed while watching

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on January 06, 2013, 03:13:32 pm
As I'm watching these games it seems like the NFL playoffs have the NBA playoff effect.  Defenses really step up their play and lock down opposing offenses.  I don't know what the O/U was in the bengals-texans game but surely with a 19-13 (32pts) score they were under it.  The total points for the GB-Vikings game was 34 and now the total score for this game will be 33.  Appears the Under in all these games would have put you in the $.  The D's definitely look sharper. 

Just something I noticed while watching

I don't believe that one NFL playoff game went over the total so far.

Hoping that this "who cares" bowl can pick up my account a little.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on January 06, 2013, 09:19:32 pm
I don't believe that one NFL playoff game went over the total so far.

Hoping that this "who cares" bowl can pick up my account a little.

hasnt been one yet.  kinda shocking.  granted none of the teams other than GB were true high power offenses, still thought we'd see some games get into the twenties (by both teams)

 

Hawgndaaz

i hated losing the redskins today but more than anything i hated seeing them leave RG3 in so long. i would have been fine losing because they didn't want to ruin his career, but watching him limp around in a freaking wildcard game on a bad knee pissed me off.


i'm on a state and the lakers tonight. hoping to recoup the loss.

for you betting gurus, what does it mean that the bama/ND line hasn't budged?

McKdaddy

January 07, 2013, 11:42:12 am #2214 Last Edit: January 07, 2013, 12:33:38 pm by McKdaddy
I took ND +10 tonight.

Fwiw: Bama 23-17

* bet now corrected *
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin


widespreadsooie


widespreadsooie


Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: McKdaddy on January 07, 2013, 11:42:12 am
I took ND -10 tonight.

Fwiw: Bama 23-17
Quote from: McKdaddy on January 07, 2013, 11:42:12 am
I took ND -10 tonight.

Fwiw: Bama 23-17
Quote from: McKdaddy on January 07, 2013, 11:42:12 am
I took ND -10 tonight.

Fwiw: Bama 23-17

Lol you took Notre Dame + 10 I would imagine. :)
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

I had a horrible day yesterday.  That's what you get for betting just to bet.
Let's make some waves.

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

yraciv

Got a tip on the coin toss, so I'm loading up. 10 units on heads

Hooch

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on January 07, 2013, 12:15:25 pm
I had a horrible day yesterday.  That's what you get for betting just to bet.

Horrible weekend for me followed up about +12 units with -10. 

 

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: Hooch on January 07, 2013, 01:05:55 pm
Horrible weekend for me followed up about +12 units with -10.

seemed to be a rough weekend for everyone.  I did not fare well either. 

WILL CLINTON

I just don't see ND being able to move the ball at all on Bama's D. They have faced soft teams all year. If McCarron bring his huevos with him tonight, it will be a long night for ND defense as well.

Bama 31-10
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hawgndaaz

So far tonight:
Bama -9 3 units

6 point teaser 2 units
Bama -3, Under 47.5

Prop bets:
ND will kick FG or Safety for their first score +180


DadVader1

Yeah, I went 0-6 over the weekend.  Fortunately, the first of the week was VERY, VERY good, and the weekend plays were small, so it still ended up being my best week ever even at 6-6-1.  I still need to work on my discipline of skipping more games and of sticking with VERY small plays when I'm doing it mainly for entertainment purposes.  Having said that, I HAD to get my $5 on the NCG tonight.  I took ND at +10.  I think Bama will win, but my coin toss says that it won't be by more than 10.

widespreadsooie

ND is the smart play, hands down. Way more value than the other side.

WILL CLINTON

I also bet a few props/futures

Bama win by 7-10     +500
Bama win by 11-13   +750
Bama win by 14-17   +800
Total points between 36-42   +400

I also took

Bama -9 (bought down from 9.5) and parlayed that with the over and the under.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

DadVader1

Most of the ratings systems that I watch pick ND to cover, but very few systems have good records when picking Bama games ATS and even fewer have good records in picking both Bama and ND games.  I just haven't been good at predicting when Bama is going to steamroll someone and when they're going to win a close one.  My lean is ND, but when I play the game out in my mind, it's a coin toss whether Bama wins a low scoring game by less than 10 or whether the game is close until the 4th quarter and Bama wears them down and opens up a 14+ lead. 

yraciv

Alright guys, 3 units on ND +10.5! Also took Armani Cooper over 75.5 yards for 1 unit.

tiber

2 units on ND +9.5 here... did you have to buy up to 10.5?

yraciv

Quote from: tiber on January 07, 2013, 06:15:01 pm
2 units on ND +9.5 here... did you have to buy up to 10.5?

Caught it at 10 bought the half point. No interest in pushing the national championship.

tiber

Quote from: yraciv on January 07, 2013, 06:15:27 pm
Caught it at 10 bought the half point. No interest in pushing the national championship.

Here's hoping neither of us need it :)

RAZORBACKER60

Well
It looks like I font know darn when it comes to picking games. SABAN

WILL CLINTON

So far, and I don't know darn about NFL, I love the Falcons -2.5 at home vs the Seahawks, and I'm leaning on Ravens +9, R Lewis isn't going out like that. 
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

The Hogfather

January 08, 2013, 08:13:06 am #2237 Last Edit: January 08, 2013, 11:28:35 am by The Hogfather
Quote from: widespreadsooie on January 07, 2013, 03:27:31 pm
ND is the smart play, hands down. Way more value than the other side.

Oops.  That's what Vegas wanted you to think.

Bama @ -9.5 last night was the easiest money of the entire season.

DadVader1

Quote from: The Hogfather on January 08, 2013, 08:13:06 am
Oops.  That's what Vegas wanted you to think.

Bama was easiest money all season long.

Says the Tuesday Morning Quarterback AFTER the Monday night game.  There were better plays just about every weekend this season.  Bama was unpredictable as hell this season (predictable at winning straight up but unpredictable ATS at 6-7).  Vegas is better at setting trap games.  When Vegas finds a game worthy of taking a position and setting a trap, you usually don't see the masses saying it's a coin toss game worthy of only a small play for entertainment purposes (as appeared to be the case for this game).

McKdaddy

January 08, 2013, 09:29:49 am #2239 Last Edit: January 08, 2013, 11:22:18 am by McKdaddy
Quote from: DadVader1 on January 08, 2013, 09:03:53 am
Says the Tuesday Morning Quarterback AFTER the Monday night game.  There were better plays just about every weekend this season.  Bama was unpredictable as hell this season (predictable at winning straight up but unpredictable ATS at 6-7).  Vegas is better at setting trap games.  When Vegas finds a game worthy of taking a position and setting a trap, you usually don't see the masses saying it's a coin toss game worthy of only a small play for entertainment purposes (as appeared to be the case for this game).

Agreed, 6-7 ATS "all season" going into last night's game is NOT easy money unless you just played the moneylines during 2012. Bama was tough to play at times in '12.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

The Hogfather

Quote from: DadVader1 on January 08, 2013, 09:03:53 am
Says the Tuesday Morning Quarterback AFTER the Monday night game.  There were better plays just about every weekend this season.  Bama was unpredictable as hell this season (predictable at winning straight up but unpredictable ATS at 6-7).  Vegas is better at setting trap games.  When Vegas finds a game worthy of taking a position and setting a trap, you usually don't see the masses saying it's a coin toss game worthy of only a small play for entertainment purposes (as appeared to be the case for this game).

I don't say much before games because I feel like I jinx myself.  You can think whatever you want.  I don't really care.  Bama was easy money last night.  Vegas had the public tripping over themselves to take the #1 team in college football +10.  The smart money was silently betting Bama hand over fist.

McKdaddy

Quote from: The Hogfather on January 08, 2013, 10:44:21 am
I don't say much before games because I feel like I jinx myself.

There has been a lot of discussion in this forum about posting money picks prior to the games occurring. Nobody that I know of has ever come on here after a game, not having posted their picks ahead of time, and said, "I lost this weekend." Strange, huh? But hasn't happened one time that I've seen. If where you put your money is posted ahead of time, then it is "on paper" vs coming in after the fact. And it helps others/provides tips/promotes discussion.

The preference in the thread has always been to post your money plays prior to the game kicking-off, if possible. Putting your money picks "on paper" isn't a jinx, just a way to encourage people to put money where their mouth is.

No harm, no foul if you prefer to not post ahead of time.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

McKdaddy

Quote from: The Hogfather on January 08, 2013, 10:44:21 am
Vegas had the public tripping over themselves to take the #1 team in college football +10.

True. One site I check had "public money" at 64% on ND at +9.5.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

The Hogfather

Quote from: McKdaddy on January 08, 2013, 11:15:02 am
There has been a lot of discussion in this forum about posting money picks prior to the games occurring. Nobody that I know of has ever come on here after a game, not having posted their picks ahead of time, and said, "I lost this weekend." Strange, huh? But hasn't happened one time that I've seen. If where you put your money is posted ahead of time, then it is "on paper" vs coming in after the fact. And it helps others/provides tips/promotes discussion.

The preference in the thread has always been to post your money plays prior to the game kicking-off, if possible. Putting your money picks "on paper" isn't a jinx, just a way to encourage people to put money where their mouth is.

No harm, no foul if you prefer to not post ahead of time.

Just a preference of mine.  I prefer not to post too many picks where I have a vested interest.  Last night was one of those times.  Biggest play of the entire season and I'm superstitious.  Bama was easy money.

I didn't do great overall this week, but ended up doing really well because of last night's game.

DadVader1

No hard feelings.  Your after-the-fact "Oops" comment just rubbed me the wrong way.  Widespread wasn't advising a large play and wasn't saying that the game was one of his favorite bowl plays.  His record was excellent on the bowl games he listed as his favorites.  If we got them all right, we wouldn't have day jobs. 

McKdaddy

Quote from: DadVader1 on January 08, 2013, 11:22:00 am
No hard feelings.  Your after-the-fact "Oops" comment just rubbed me the wrong way.  Widespread wasn't advising a large play and wasn't saying that the game was one of his favorite bowl plays.  His record was excellent on the bowl games he listed as his favorites.  If we got them all right, we wouldn't have day jobs.

As you see by my posts, rubbed me the wrong way also. 6-7 ATS did not reflect them as being an easy play "all season" per an earlier post of HF's.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

The Hogfather

Quote from: DadVader1 on January 08, 2013, 11:22:00 am
No hard feelings.  Your after-the-fact "Oops" comment just rubbed me the wrong way.  Widespread wasn't advising a large play and wasn't saying that the game was one of his favorite bowl plays.  His record was excellent on the bowl games he listed as his favorites.  If we got them all right, we wouldn't have day jobs.

I wasn't trying to be (too much of) an ass.  I just keep an eye on these types of things.  Lines like this seem too good to be true.  All the "value" seemed to be on the #1 team getting 10 pts.  However, that's just what Vegas wanted everyone to think, so they don't get their arses kicked by the big dogs who knew Bama was pretty easy money.

The Hogfather

Quote from: McKdaddy on January 08, 2013, 11:24:08 am
As you see by my posts, rubbed me the wrong way also. 6-7 ATS did not reflect them as being an easy play "all season" per an earlier post of HF's.

I didn't convey my point very well.  Bama -9.5 last night was the easiest play of the entire season for me.  Not playing on Bama all season long.

McKdaddy

Quote from: The Hogfather on January 08, 2013, 11:25:41 am
I wasn't trying to be (too much of) an ass.  I just keep an eye on these types of things.  Lines like this seem too good to be true.  All the "value" seemed to be on the #1 team getting 10 pts.  However, that's just what Vegas wanted everyone to think, so they don't get their arses kicked by the big dogs who knew Bama was pretty easy money.
'

That's why you need to punk the mythical jinx and post on here! Come on, help a brother get paid, HF.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

The Hogfather