CBS Bracket Guy Jerry Palm

[razorsharp94]

Bracket matrix has the Hogs in 71 of 77 projections right now. I think some are in the hope we don't make it so we can make a change at Head Coach club.

[Dominicanhog]

Bracket matrix has the Hogs in 71 of 77 projections right now. I think some are in the hope we don't make it so we can make a change at Head Coach club.

Really?  Whatever could make you think like that? HV?

[gmarv]

Yeah but again the SEC RPI as a whole was not as good as it is now. A lot of quality however not great wins available in this league.

didn,t USCe also play a extremely bad out of conf. schedule?

[King Kong]

didn,t USCe also play a extremely bad out of conf. schedule?

Yes

[King Kong]

I bet, If Palm had the Hogs as a 10 seed and Lunardi had them out, suddenly on Hogville, Palm would be the expert and Lunardi the hack who does not know what he is talking about.

The Hogs have ZERO "good" wins, and really only 2 more chances to get one, and those are at Sc and at Fla. The bad part is they have many chances for "bad" losses.

Now, if they et to 25 wins in the regular season, I'd say they are in. 24 is probably in, anything less and it becomes really dicey.

If Lundari was saying 25 wins wouldn't get us in with what would be like 12-14 top 100 victories. Then yes I would question Lundari as well. But Lundari's track record is without a doubt better

[hogsanity]

If Lundari was saying 25 wins wouldn't get us in with what would be like 12-14 top 100 victories. Then yes I would question Lundari as well. But Lundari's track record is without a doubt better

Both show the razor thin edge the Hogs are walking for the ncaat. Think about it, they sit at 14-4 and yet are projected, right now, as a 10 seed.

I said before the season I thought they would make it, and I still do, but they have to win out at home, period. Any loss at home from this point on is going to be a bad loss. They also can not go to LSU or Mizzu and lose. 

[Dominicanhog]

Both show the razor thin edge the Hogs are walking for the ncaat. Think about it, they sit at 14-4 and yet are projected, right now, as a 10 seed.

I said before the season I thought they would make it, and I still do, but they have to win out at home, period. Any loss at home from this point on is going to be a bad loss. They also can not go to LSU or Mizzu and lose.

You keep saying that but most of the teams around us have very similar records.. some identical.. so I guess I'm missing your point.. their position is as precarious as ours... some of the B1G/ACC schools ahead with worse records are starting to pick up losses and one or so drops every week, it's going to continue.. we keep winning, we will keep moving up...

I repeat, a losing record in the B1G/ACC and 12-14 losses will not get in over a 23 win Hog team..

Projecting now is like when we look at the F4 in football.. you can't look 1/2 way through a season.. teams ahead  have to play each other and the teams behind get a chance to move up..

[Hawg Red]

Both show the razor thin edge the Hogs are walking for the ncaat. Think about it, they sit at 14-4 and yet are projected, right now, as a 10 seed.

I said before the season I thought they would make it, and I still do, but they have to win out at home, period. Any loss at home from this point on is going to be a bad loss. They also can not go to LSU or Mizzu and lose.

Yep, they're just above being in a play-in game right now. Lot of business to be handled here on out. Definitely can't lose a home game at all.

[Hawg Red]

You keep saying that but most of the teams around us have very similar records.. some identical.. so I guess I'm missing your point.. their position is as precarious as ours... some of the B1G/ACC schools ahead with worse records are starting to pick up losses and one or so drops every week, it's going to continue.. we keep winning, we will keep moving up...

I repeat, a losing record in the B1G/ACC and 12-14 losses will not get in over a 23 win Hog team..

Projecting now is like when we look at the F4 in football.. you can't look 1/2 way through a season.. teams ahead  have to play each other and the teams behind get a chance to move up..

His point is being in a group of teams in a "precarious position" is not a good position to be in. How hard is that to see? Obviously we're in the hunt for an at-large birth. So much will happen down the stretch here with all these teams. We need to win, win, win. We can't expect to get in over Big 10 or Big 12 teams with similar conference records.

We just lost to Mississippi State, who everyone thought was a gutter trash coming into the matchup with the Hogs. Now, everyone is acting like Mississippi State is some bubble team. The truth is somewhere in between, but their RPI is outside of the top 100, so that's a bad loss right now. If we just suffered a bad loss a week ago, it's completely reasonable to assume it might happen again at some point during the remainder of a regular season that does not offer but a few chances for nice resume wins (and two of those games are on the road to ranked teams). We're hanging for dear life right now. The fact that there are a bunch of other schools in the same boat does not make it any safer of a place to be.

[Dominicanhog]

We can't expect to get in over Big 10 or Big 12 teams with similar conference records.

We're hanging for dear life right now. The fact that there are a bunch of other schools in the same boat does not make it any safer of a place to be.

We won't get in over similar records but they want get in over us (23 wins)with a losing conference record, which several are on their way to having.. the season just needs to play out..

As far as hanging on for dear life.. everybody is that is not a T25 lock...

slighting our position and not recognizing that most everybody is in a similar position is disingenuous and agenda driven..

[Hawg Red]

slighting our position and not recognizing that most everybody is in a similar position is disingenuous and agenda driven..

Bullsh-t.

You're being too sensitive. There's nothing agenda-driven in acknowledge that Arkansas is in a big group lower-end "maybe" tournament teams. Holler at me when we're projected as a 6-8 seed. Until then, we're at major risk of missing the tournament with little margin for error. Nothing disingenuous about it.

[NWAHog479]

If we keep winning, this problem will take care of itself. We're 14 and 4, we have had seasons that were awful compared to this. Can you try to enjoy a good team and a good season?

[Dominicanhog]

You're being too sensitive.

Maybe, I've been known to be a big Homer...

[hogsanity]

Yep, they're just above being in a play-in game right now. Lot of business to be handled here on out. Definitely can't lose a home game at all.

The sec got 3 in last year, Vandy was the 3rd at 19-11 but they played a really tough schedule, including ( Kansas, Texas, Dayton, Baylor ) Arkansas, or any other sec team this year really, is not going to have a schedule like that to lean on ( Fla and Ky do but they are not going to be on the bubble ).

I do think it is highly unlikely the Hogs win more than 23 and do not get in.

[hogsanity]

We won't get in over similar records but they want get in over us (23 wins)with a losing conference record, which several are on their way to having..

don't bet on that. IT is not uncommon for teams to get in from the "tough" leagues with losing conf records.

[Dominicanhog]

don't bet on that. IT is not uncommon for teams to get in from the "tough" leagues with losing conf records.

I agree that happens.. but usually not at the expense of a T4/5- P5 conference team with 23+ wins...

[hogsanity]

I agree that happens.. but usually not at the expense of a T4/5- P5 conference team with 23+ wins...

It happened just last year to SC. they were 25-9 ( 11-7 ) and did not make the ncaat. Yes, they had a really bad ooc schedule, but they finished 3rd in the sec, wet 11-7 in the sec, and got left out. Pretty sure at least one ACC team with a losing conf record got in. Heck, Vandy got in with 6 fewer wins.

[gmarv]

Maybe, I've been known to be a big Homer...

as far as i,m concerned it is still good to be a homer.I like our team and still expect (hope) they get in until they just don,t.

[Dominicanhog]

It happened just last year to SC. they were 25-9 ( 11-7 ) and did not make the ncaat. Yes, they had a really bad ooc schedule, but they finished 3rd in the sec, wet 11-7 in the sec, and got left out. Pretty sure at least one ACC team with a losing conf record got in. Heck, Vandy got in with 6 fewer wins.

it can happen, not usually though.. USCe was a unique team.. their OOC schedule was one for the ages.. even with no big-time wins, if memory serves me correctly, our OOC schedule rpi is several notches above where they were..

right now the are projecting 11 ACC teams.. Cuse, NCst ,UM, Wake, GT some of these teams will have as many losses as wins by the time it is done, with big losing records in the ACC.. things are going to change and we should benefit, if we keep winning at a high degree.. I like how our schedule sets up and as I've said several times .. 23 is in.. doesn't matter who we beat or who we lose to, or where... it's just math and looking at the schedules of the people ahead of us.. as they lose, we'll move up..

I think win the next 4 and we'll be a T 7/8 seed..maybe higher.. and could even start to sniff the T25.. easier said than done, I know...

[hog.goblin]

didn,t USCe also play a extremely bad out of conf. schedule?

No, they played Michigan, Syracuse, Clemson, Memphis, and Seton Hall.  That's not extremely bad, it's average.  It would be great except that Michigan, Syracuse, and Memphis aren't what that have been historically.

They also went 2 - 3 in that stretch.

They needed that FL win and are basically in our boat.  23 wins and they are should be in.  I think we need 24 to feel good about it, unless we can get beat either USCe or FL on the road.

[hogsanity]

No, they played Michigan, Syracuse, Clemson, Memphis, and Seton Hall.  That's not extremely bad, it's average.  It would be great except that Michigan, Syracuse, and Memphis aren't what that have been historically.

They also went 2 - 3 in that stretch.

They needed that FL win and are basically in our boat.  23 wins and they are should be in.  I think we need 24 to feel good about it, unless we can get beat either USCe or FL on the road.

talking about last season. Last season SC had a pathetic ooc schedule. Played several teams with rpi 300+. This year the ooc schedule is much better, but while most p5 schools benefit from their conf schedule, SEC teams really do not.

[Hawg Red]

as far as i,m concerned it is still good to be a homer.I like our team and still expect (hope) they get in until they just don,t.

It's fine to be a homer, but recognize the lack of reasoning that sometimes comes with that and don't call people that are being more pragmatic "disingenuous" or "agenda-driven." My only agenda is the truth as I see based on historical evidence.

[ShadowHawg]

Ummm, South Carolina won 24 last year.

Carolina played one of the worst pre season schedules in all of d1. Absolutely horrible. Maybe the most inflated win total of any p5 team.

Their schedule strength was 110, ours is currently 48. They had a loss to a sub 200 team and only played 11 top 100 teams overall.

They were barely a bubble team despite their win total.

[Dominicanhog]

It's fine to be a homer, but recognize the lack of reasoning that sometimes comes with that and don't call people that are being more pragmatic "disingenuous" or "agenda-driven." My only agenda is the truth as I see based on historical evidence.

no agenda, you?

[gmarv]

It's fine to be a homer, but recognize the lack of reasoning that sometimes comes with that and don't call people that are being more pragmatic "disingenuous" or "agenda-driven." My only agenda is the truth as I see based on historical evidence.

I personally didn,t do any of those things as far as I remember.I like the poster admitting he is a homer as I am also.

[daprospecta]

I know some of you want greatness right away. I can remember in the last ten years(minus 2014), we weren't considered a tourney team and the only way we made the tourney is we would have to go on a tear at the end of the season.  We have been a projected tourney team for most of the season and that hasn't changed after 18 games.  We are taking care of business for the most part.  At first, it was we aren't a tourney team, now, it's why are we not a higher seed. Every bracketologists worth his/her salt has us in. Until that changes, stop worrying.

[Hawg Red]

I personally didn,t do any of those things as far as I remember.I like the poster admitting he is a homer as I am also.

I didn't say you did.

[Hawg Red]

no agenda, you?

Apparently you think I do have one.

[Biggus Piggus]

Last season, South Carolina was 24-8 on selection Sunday and did not get into the NCAAT. Lost by a point to Georgia in the first round of the SECT. That killed them. The Gamecocks were undefeated in nonconference play, with a road win over Clemson.

Anytime you have double-digit losses, you're in jeopardy to some extent.

In 2011, Alabama won the West (when we still played in divisions) and finished 21-11, 12-4 SEC, after losing to Kentucky on Saturday in the SECT. The selection committee chose five East teams but not Alabama.

Mississippi State won the West in 2010 and was 23-11 after losing in OT in the finals of the SECT. Didn't make the NCAAT.

[Dominicanhog]

Last season, South Carolina was 24-8 on selection Sunday and did not get into the NCAAT. Lost by a point to Georgia in the first round of the SECT. That killed them. The Gamecocks were undefeated in nonconference play, with a road win over Clemson.

Anytime you have double-digit losses, you're in jeopardy to some extent.

In 2011, Alabama won the West (when we still played in divisions) and finished 21-11, 12-4 SEC, after losing to Kentucky on Saturday in the SECT. The selection committee chose five East teams but not Alabama.

Mississippi State won the West in 2010 and was 23-11 after losing in OT in the finals of the SECT. Didn't make the NCAAT.

SC's 110 SOS was the problem, as for the other 2...no SEC team is getting in with double digit losses...

[ShadowHawg]

Last season, South Carolina was 24-8 on selection Sunday and did not get into the NCAAT. Lost by a point to Georgia in the first round of the SECT. That killed them. The Gamecocks were undefeated in nonconference play, with a road win over Clemson.

Anytime you have double-digit losses, you're in jeopardy to some extent.

In 2011, Alabama won the West (when we still played in divisions) and finished 21-11, 12-4 SEC, after losing to Kentucky on Saturday in the SECT. The selection committee chose five East teams but not Alabama.

Mississippi State won the West in 2010 and was 23-11 after losing in OT in the finals of the SECT. Didn't make the NCAAT.

Carolina tried to game rpi last year. They lost to a sub 200 team and played multiple sub 300 teams. They only played 11 top 100 teams all season including the tournament.

[hog.goblin]

talking about last season. Last season SC had a pathetic ooc schedule. Played several teams with rpi 300+. This year the ooc schedule is much better, but while most p5 schools benefit from their conf schedule, SEC teams really do not.

Ok, makes more sense

[Dominicanhog]

Apparently you think I do have one.

Looping back.. probably a bad call on my part.. was lumping you in with others, my bad..

[Hawg Red]

Looping back.. probably a bad call on my part.. was lumping you in with others, my bad..

Water under the bridge.

Woo pig.

[Dominicanhog]

Water under the bridge.

Woo pig.

thank goodness there's water under the bridge.. hawgs could be in trouble otherwise...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WABKStvx6B0

[cosmodrum]

I bet, If Palm had the Hogs as a 10 seed and Lunardi had them out, suddenly on Hogville, Palm would be the expert and Lunardi the hack who does not know what he is talking about.

The Hogs have ZERO "good" wins, and really only 2 more chances to get one, and those are at Sc and at Fla. The bad part is they have many chances for "bad" losses.

Now, if they et to 25 wins in the regular season, I'd say they are in. 24 is probably in, anything less and it becomes really dicey.

According to Palm, every game left on our schedule that isn't SC and UF would be bad losses.

[rzrbackramsfan]

Does anybody know what South Carolina's rpi was at the end of the year.  Flawed, yes, by I believe that is mainly what the committee looks at.  After we missed the tourney the first year with portis, the team realized we needed to schedule lots of top 100 rpi type teams that we could still beat for rpi purposes.  MVC type teams.  That's what they did well in the non con two years ago, and even last year(we struggled with those type teams this year). 

[hogsanity]

According to Palm, every game left on our schedule that isn't SC and UF would be bad losses.

Yep. That is what makes it so tough.

[GuvHog]

We aren't going to win 25.

As Tuesday night's game showed, the Hogs defense is improving but if they are going to win 25 games they'll have to catch fire on the offensive end of the court and maintain it. That's easier said than done.

[hogsanity]

As Tuesday night's game showed, the Hogs defense is improving but if they are going to win 25 games they'll have to catch fire on the offensive end of the court and maintain it. That's easier said than done.

I heard an interview with John Sunvold yesterday. He has called several of our games. He does not think they have the defense to hold up enough to get into the ncaat. He pointed out what others have said, A&M has terrible guard play, and even with that they still almost won the game.

[azhog10]

I heard an interview with John Sunvold yesterday. He has called several of our games. He does not think they have the defense to hold up enough to get into the ncaat. He pointed out what others have said, A&M has terrible guard play, and even with that they still almost won the game.

I don't disagree, but even when we had a very good team, we couldn't win at TAMU. Heck, we couldn't even keep it within 10. So yes, guard play is bad, but they shoot the ball better than half the SEC AND we struggle against teams that can shoot. So yeah, their guards aren't great, but they are a team that has given us fits for a while now.

[cosmodrum]

Yep. That is what makes it so tough.

It actually sounded like a win over SC wouldn't even help much. It's all about beating UF. I mean, he basically said we have to win out.

[Hawg Red]

It actually sounded like a win over SC wouldn't even help much. It's all about beating UF. I mean, he basically said we have to win out.

I just don't believe that.

[hogsanity]

I don't disagree, but even when we had a very good team, we couldn't win at TAMU. Heck, we couldn't even keep it within 10. So yes, guard play is bad, but they shoot the ball better than half the SEC AND we struggle against teams that can shoot. So yeah, their guards aren't great, but they are a team that has given us fits for a while now.

A&M was highly overrated this year, and then their PG could not stay eligible. They lost so much from their past couple of years rosters. And one thing Mikes teams have always done is take care of teams with weak guards. It is what his system was designed to do almost 2 decades ago when teams did not have guys at the 4 and 5 spot that can handle the ball.

That is why it so hard to get a read on the rest of the season. LSu has decent guards, but apparently their whole team avoids playing defense. Auburn has good guards but not much else. SC & FL are solid with the ball and on defense. I have not seen Bama or GA play. Vandy is typical Vandy, shoot the 3 well, take care of the ball most of the time, but not real deep and they play much better in Nashville than on the road. Mizzu is just all around bad. 

[Dominicanhog]

I heard an interview with John Sunvold yesterday. He has called several of our games. He does not think they have the defense to hold up enough to get into the ncaat. He pointed out what others have said, A&M has terrible guard play, and even with that they still almost won the game.

hand grenades?

flip side: uncharacteristic FT shooting by our best shooters or we could have won going away.

Also appears no credit for staying with their bigs..

[GuvHog]

I heard an interview with John Sunvold yesterday. He has called several of our games. He does not think they have the defense to hold up enough to get into the ncaat. He pointed out what others have said, A&M has terrible guard play, and even with that they still almost won the game.

A&M almost won the game because of their strong inside game. They were really hurting the Hogs in the lane until Mike had the team start double teaming their big men. That put pressure on their guards and is what allowed the Hogs to take the lead and win the game.

[King Kong]

I heard an interview with John Sunvold yesterday. He has called several of our games. He does not think they have the defense to hold up enough to get into the ncaat. He pointed out what others have said, A&M has terrible guard play, and even with that they still almost won the game.

Sunvold hates that MA left his alma mater in Mizz and to come to Arkansas

[cosmodrum]

I just don't believe that.

Me either, but Palm is right. We have nothing left on our schedule but meaningless wins and bad losses (save UF and SC).

[azhog10]

Sunvold hates that MA left his alma mater in Mizz and to come to Arkansas

If he said TAMU's guards are that bad, then he sure did a 180 from game night. All he could do was talk about how great Hogg and Gilder are. I mean he was drooling over Hogg's "footwork" on defense.

[FineAsSwine]

A&M almost won the game because of their strong inside game. They were really hurting the Hogs in the lane until Mike had the team start double teaming their big men. That put pressure on their guards and is what allowed the Hogs to take the lead and win the game.

CMA making adjustments in the middle of a game? Hogville says that is not true! Of course Hogville also says that the Hogs can't win on the road and they don't rebound.