Fed holds the rate

[The Marmot]

at 2%.

No real response from the market either way. The vote was 9-1, and the lone dissenter, Richard Fisher from Dallas, wanted the rate increased to fight inflation.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080625/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates

[BlackKnightHogFan]

Statement was more dovish then I anticipated.  I believe their outlook supports my beliefs stated in the "Where will the Markets be" started by Mass.

[Masshog]

Feds between a rock and a hard place.  Greenspan has left quite a legacy for the current guy to deal with. 

[Snort and Squeal]

Feds between a rock and a hard place.  Greenspan has left quite a legacy for the current guy to deal with. 

I think Greenspan knew when to get out.

[BlackKnightHogFan]

Feds between a rock and a hard place.  Greenspan has left quite a legacy for the current guy to deal with. 

I agree and Greenspan created the housing crisis we have now.  I believe the fed is stuck, but I am under the opinion that they need to move rates higher SLOWLY now.  I know the issue will deepen the financial crisis so maybe it is funds only not discount window.  However, I believe the bigger problem is inflation and the dollar and the only way to fix that is to raise rates.  This nonsense that everything will moderate on its own is just that nonsense.  The fed said that in January and the dollar crashed and oil went up 40%.  Let the financial crisis play out and raise rates slowly.

[HotlantaHog]

Statement was more dovish then I anticipated.  I believe their outlook supports my beliefs stated in the "Where will the Markets be" started by Mass.

This is true. There is no eagerness to raise rates anytime soon.

[Biggus Piggus]

It's very possible that the economy entered recession in May.  Stocks may be telling us that.

[Masshog]

I think we may have entered several months ago...  maybe not in official world, but in real world. 

[The Marmot]

I think we may have entered several months ago...  maybe not in official world, but in real world. 

Havent we had < 1% growth the last few months...... WITHOUT counting food and energy costs? You know, the two biggest costs in our lives.

Thats a recession in my book.

[Masshog]

Yeah, I think you can try to draw to fine a line on it... whether or not its an official recession isn't really that important.

[HotlantaHog]

Martin Feldstein, who heads the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions, says he believes we entered a recession in December or January (despite the statistical fluke that there was a 1 percent GDP in the first quarter.)

[BlackKnightHogFan]

Martin Feldstein, who heads the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions, says he believes we entered a recession in December or January (despite the statistical fluke that there was a 1 percent GDP in the first quarter.)

GDP was .6 in Q1 and 1% in Q2.  I think stocks are telling we entered in May even though the GDP and Jobs numbers may not confirm.  If that is ture recessions usually run for 1.1 years and the market as a leading indicator usually starts the recovery 6 months prior to the end of the recession.  That supports my feeling of a market recovery by Q4 2008 or Q1 2009.

[SLC]

GDP has not confirmed a recession as of yet. 

[HawgPilot]

I agree and Greenspan created the housing crisis we have now.  I believe the fed is stuck, but I am under the opinion that they need to move rates higher SLOWLY now.  I know the issue will deepen the financial crisis so maybe it is funds only not discount window.  However, I believe the bigger problem is inflation and the dollar and the only way to fix that is to raise rates.  This nonsense that everything will moderate on its own is just that nonsense.  The fed said that in January and the dollar crashed and oil went up 40%.  Let the financial crisis play out and raise rates slowly.

Agreed.