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  • #5101 by yraciv on 10 Oct 2013
  • I like both USC and Rutgers tonight.  Rutgers is Louisville's only legitimate challenge in conference. That Louisville D has looked stingy, but hasn't been tested and Rutgers has been in multiple battles at this point.  Rutgers should be up for this game, and I've seen enough of Nova and that offense to expect them to control clock and move the ball. Louisville has had a bunch of tight games against good & not so good competition lately once they rolled into conference.
  • #5102 by WILL CLINTON on 10 Oct 2013
  • Gotta say, nug is bringing some GOOD info. Keep it coming.

    I'm on the LSU side of this game. I think with the combination of a potent offense, with their defensive talent is going to be too much for Florida to handle. I think this is going to be a 31-17 game, with LSU covering easily.

    I like the Or St pick, because I think people (the public) have a flawed perception of Oregon St because of their loss AND Wash St because of their success, especially keeping it close with Auburn. If I take this game, I lean Or St. I'm gonna check on my west coast guy on therx and see if we agree.

    I'm laying off the Oregon game, because I want to see how Oregon stacks up against a team coached as good as Wash. Probably a 2nd qtr, and 2nd half bet on this one, depending on how it kicks off.

    Texas and OU has me puzzled, but I'm leaning OU, but this whole Mac thing, and Texas rising up in big games, and OU choking in big games. I'm wanting to play OU, because on paper this should be a 42-10 type game, but I'm going to hold off.

  • #5103 by DadVader1 on 10 Oct 2013
  • I understand the points being made for Rutgers and am wishing that I had stuck with my usual 3 unit play when taking Louisville at -16.5, but I wouldn't change that play.  This is a strength on weakness game with the no. 13 passing O going against the no. 116 passing D.  Their passing D would be ranked lower if they hadn't faced Derby in our game.  We had a 17 point lead in the second half (with Derby ... noted, we got plenty of breaks), and if we had a semblance of a passing attack, there is a very good chance that we would have beat them by more than 17 in their "Super Bowl" home game against an SEC opponent.  On the road, Rutgers lost in OT to Fresno St. and barely escaped in 3OT against 1-4 SMU.  This will be back to back road games in 5 days (including triple OT 5 days ago).  I like Nova, and he seemed to will them to a win against us, but their 14 4th quarter points came after our D was gassed from being on the field all night.  There is also a pretty big gap in turnover margin with Rutgers 83rd & Louisville 6th. 

    In their close victory last year at Rutgers, Bridgewater sat out the first half with a broken wrist and bad ankle but came in and threw 2 TD passes in the second half to come back and win the game (again, with a broken wrist and bad ankle).  A healthy Bridgewater, at home, for the whole game, against the no. 116 passing D could easily make the difference between a close game last year and covering 17 or 19 tonight.

    The spreadsheets typically come up with 5 or 6 games each week that hit in positive trend after positive trend, and they fare pretty well on those games.  When I ran the numbers at Louisville -17, it was one of those 5 or 6 games that hit on several very positive trends. 

    It should be a fun game to watch.  I could definitely see either scenario playing out.
  • #5104 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 10 Oct 2013
  • I'm playing the total. I THINK I would go with Louisville -19 but the best bet in this one is o56.

    Interesting thing tonight in MLB....Oakland is -105 tonight and the tigers are -106. Talk about a true coin flip , this is it. Ace versus ace in the deciding game 5. That said, I like the tigers. Vet lander has been here before while gray hasn't.. For that reason, I like the tigers.

    So....

    Thursday card:

    NCAAF
    Arizona +185    2 units
    Arizona +5.5     1 unit
    Lou/RU O56.     1 unit

    MLB Playoffs
    Tigers -106.   1 unit
  • #5105 by Hawgndaaz on 10 Oct 2013
  • Jeff is going Giants +7.5 5 units

    Louisville -11.5 5 units FIRST HALF (he's trailing me, fyi)
    Louisville -18.5 5 units
    point total 56 OVER 5 units

    50 dollar parlay on the above three

    I am tailing giants and have it at +8.5 bought to +9 4 units.

    taking Rutgers/Lou OVER 56 1 unit

    Louisville -11.5 3 units first half
    louisville -19  2 units
  • #5106 by WILL CLINTON on 10 Oct 2013
  • Also taking the over tonight. Haven't seen anyone on the other side, and SEVERAL people on the over tonight.

    Louisville o55.5  2*


    Tailing Jeff on Giants.



  • #5107 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 10 Oct 2013
  • Also taking the over tonight. Haven't seen anyone on the other side, and SEVERAL people on the over tonight.

    Louisville o55.5  2*






    Let's hope this isn't another one of those Thursday night "hogville curses" where everybody is on the same play and we all lose.
  • #5108 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 10 Oct 2013
  • That giants pick surprises me. They are 0-5 SUATS, on the road, have a poor offensive line playing against a good pass rush and a team that can force turnovers.

    Then again, the NFL is an enigma this season and teams that should cover haven't been.
  • #5109 by widespreadsooie on 10 Oct 2013
  • SDSU/AF o55 2u

    Dropped to 53.5 about an hour after I placed my wager. Another line moving against. Hate that.


    After tonight I have:

    Oregon -14 2.5u
    BAY o72.5 2.5u
    BAY -17 2u
    Cincy u51.5 2u


    Vader, what do the systems say about Marshall -11 and Penn St. +3?
  • #5110 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 10 Oct 2013
  • Just what we needed...a long, time consuming drive resulting in a FG.
  • #5111 by widespreadsooie on 10 Oct 2013
  • Last two play calls for RUT saved me
  • #5112 by WILL CLINTON on 10 Oct 2013
  • Let's hope this isn't another one of those Thursday night "hogville curses" where everybody is on the same play and we all lose.

    Brother, it is like this everywhere I've looked online. I have seen more people on this over than I've seen agreeing on in a LONG time. Hopefully we aren't all being duped.
  • #5113 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 10 Oct 2013
  • Not gonna happen for the over crowd
  • #5114 by nughaud on 10 Oct 2013
  • Since everyone is waiting the early NCAAF game or the NFL or MLB game, I thought I'd talk about books in general and just give my thoughts on some I use.

    One of the best is Heritage, which sometimes goes invite only. You can buy points up or down with ease, usually -108 lines when others are -110, great options for parlays or teasers and in-progress investing (during breaks). They also allow large ML wagers on "sure things" such as Denver this weekend vs Jax... heh -7020.

    The others are BM and BOL. BM which everyone should know has great lines, some of the earliest lines out and lots of in-game investing, such as tonight on college, NFL and MLB. BOL has similar interface but not as good overall, but similar.

    If you like dogs, Sportsbook has some of the best dog lines. Normally it's anywhere from .5 to up to 2 for NFL/College lines in favor of the dog.  I've had no issues over the years there either.

    The last is 5dimes which has some great lines, in-game, and lots of ML parlays options on almost all teams, doesn't matter how big. Just as I mentioned Denver vs Jax above they have Denver -7000.  So if you like to mix large ML favs in your parlays, 5dimes and Heritage are great places to look.

    In general I look a lot at the in-game/in-progress wagering. As it helps to get a feel of the action and/or get better odds on a side you are leaning or took previously.

    On a side-note, this is what UL looks like against decent competition... As they haven't scored since it was 17-0 and Rutgers decided to wake up.
  • #5115 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 10 Oct 2013
  • I've used quite a few books but my current book (topbet) is the best I've used. Reduced juice on Thursday and Fridays. I seem to have better lines than a lot of people and payouts are super fast.
  • #5116 by nughaud on 10 Oct 2013
  • I've used quite a few books but my current book (topbet) is the best I've used. Reduced juice on Thursday and Fridays. I seem to have better lines than a lot of people and payouts are super fast.

    I've heard good and bad things about them, but then again.. I've heard that about every book lol.
    How long have you been with them? I'm always open to looking at a new one. Right now I have 7 active with funds.
    Another good book is YouWager with similar discounted juice on Friday evenings through the next morning I believe. It's on their main page.
  • #5117 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 10 Oct 2013
  • I've heard good and bad things about them, but then again.. I've heard that about every book lol.
    How long have you been with them? I'm always open to looking at a new one. Right now I have 7 active with funds.
    Another good book is YouWager with similar discounted juice on Friday evenings through the next morning I believe. It's on their main page.

    This is my 2nd year. I'm very pleased.
  • #5118 by DadVader1 on 10 Oct 2013
  • Good job on those who took Rutgers.  I just knew I had it covered when Louisville had it covered EARLY and turnovers were going in my favor.  Wish I had stuck with 3 units instead of 5, but I'm fine with that call.

    On accounts - I need to replenish my 5dimes account.  Bookmaker has been good to me, but I like having different lines, and 5dimes usually has decent lines that differ a bit from bookmaker. 

    I'm still waiting on a last minute power ranking system line to fill in the blanks, but I stumbled across a trend that looks too good to be true (which means it probably is).  What I lack in wagering experience, I may make up for in competitiveness/sheer determination/grinding/the gift of blankness.  After wasting HOURS of time getting the best armors and weapons in my sons' video games (which, in the end, are worth NOTHING), I had an epiphany that I should "grind" developing spreadsheets for NCAAF instead.  My "armor and weapons" made me money last year and are making me money this year.  I need to learn NOT to load up on a game without the input from you guys first, but I still think this will be my best season by far.  Hope springs eternal :)

    Thanks again for a GREAT, helpful thread!
  • #5119 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 10 Oct 2013
  • Another MLB playoffs win moves me to 8-3.

    With the Arizona ML and spread losses coupled with the over loss,

    I end the night 1-3. Back to my Thursday night woes.
  • #5120 by DadVader1 on 10 Oct 2013
  • Do any of the casinos in the bordering states take bets on college football?
  • #5121 by yraciv on 10 Oct 2013
  • Do any of the casinos in the bordering states take bets on college football?

    Haha! Um no, but that would be nice.
  • #5122 by checkraiser88 on 10 Oct 2013
  • A couple of things to consider in the Baylor game:
    -First half line at -10 I believe. I say take it all day!!! They were up 56-14 at half against WV.
    - Total points at 74.....Pretty fair! They have scored 70 in the 3 games this year.
    - Baylor -17.5...Was at 17, 17.5 still fair! They could possibly bench starters at halftime though which could be a problem
  • #5123 by DadVader1 on 11 Oct 2013
  • Haha! Um no, but that would be nice.

    That's what I thought, but it was worth asking :)  If ... When ... I get to the Jeff level of winning, I hope to pay for a few Vegas trips.  Was just hoping that I could start out with a Poor Man's version close to home.
  • #5124 by razorbacker231 on 11 Oct 2013
  • Have been pretty vacant on this thread.  Just chiming in.
    I took da bears tonight and lost.  I really wanted to take giants, but admittadly had conflicting interest, as i picked bears to win a survivor pool.  Talked myself out of picking them to win, but not covering.  Shame on me.

    Just to be transparent.  Also stating now, i have oregon -14.5 for most all my profits for the season.  I am not basing this on any alaysis, other than that they are oregon, and almost always cover.   They are still explosive even after the chip kelly era, and need to win big to have a shot at BSCG.  They will not pull shots if they don't have to. 

    Not asking anyone to follow, just stating my play.
  • #5125 by UAstudent13 on 11 Oct 2013
  • A couple of things to consider in the Baylor game:
    -First half line at -10 I believe. I say take it all day!!! They were up 56-14 at half against WV.
    - Total points at 74.....Pretty fair! They have scored 70 in the 3 games this year.
    - Baylor -17.5...Was at 17, 17.5 still fair! They could possibly bench starters at halftime though which could be a problem

    Where the heck is first half line -10 on Baylor???? Free money there.
  • #5126 by nughaud on 11 Oct 2013
  • Have been pretty vacant on this thread.  Just chiming in.
    I took da bears tonight and lost.  I really wanted to take giants, but admittadly had conflicting interest, as i picked bears to win a survivor pool.  Talked myself out of picking them to win, but not covering.  Shame on me.

    Just to be transparent.  Also stating now, i have oregon -14.5 for most all my profits for the season.  I am not basing this on any alaysis, other than that they are oregon, and almost always cover.   They are still explosive even after the chip kelly era, and need to win big to have a shot at BSCG.  They will not pull shots if they don't have to. 

    Not asking anyone to follow, just stating my play.

    Backer, just so you know -14.5 is a horrible line, considering I've seen it just as recent as -13.
    You are just asking for a backdoor cover with -14.5.

    I know some people are limited in where they can put down a investment, but if you have to take a really bad line sometimes, then it's probably best to just not take it at all. I like UDUB, and the points, but it's not something I have made a play on yet.
    This is more of a post to make sure you actually get the best line and if you have to buy the hook (.5) or see something at -14.5, well, look around and see if you can find -14 or less or buy off a somewhat key #.

    Now, this is an NFL stat, but it serves a similar purpose and can be somewhat used for NCAAF.
    Although the kicking game is not as good in college, and the key #s won't be as high of a percentage, but it gives you a good idea.
    15+% of the time games are decided by 3 points.
    5%+ of the time games are decided by 4 points.
    5%+ of the time games are decided by 6 points.
    9+% of the time games are decided by 7 points.
    6+ of the time games are decided by 10 points.
    5%+ of the time games are decided by 14 points.

    Obviously the biggest numbers are 3 and 10 which make up about 25% of the margin of victory.
    Usually it costs 20 to 30 cents to get off those numbers, but if you search around you might be able to get lower juice or a better line.

    Just something to keep in mind, as I know I'd have a hard time laying 14.5 and then the final score is a 14 point win, and I lose.

    Good Luck, Oregon could dominate, so I'll probably stay away, watch it on TV and then get a 2nd half in or a in-progress investment. I'd also recommend to not "go all-in" or put a substantial amount down for one game. Those are usually the ones which bite you in the end.
     
  • #5127 by razorbacker231 on 11 Oct 2013
  • Ha.  Thanks for the input.  I am aware of the point differences.  I considered buying the line down to 13.5, but then if i bought a full point, it would cut way deep into my potential payout.  And have been waiting for it to improve, it kept moving the other way tho.  It moved a half point on espn, my book stayed the same.

    It was prob a reckless bet.  And i had a little liquid courage last night when i made it ;) but i still am not overly concerned about it. 

    I have had a decent season, to date, and have been spreading small bets out over multiple teams, diluting profits due to some losses.  Do i figured i would lay down less teams, bigger bets this week, see how i do.
  • #5128 by nughaud on 11 Oct 2013
  • Ha.  Thanks for the input.  I am aware of the point differences.  I considered buying the line down to 13.5, but then if i bought a full point, it would cut way deep into my potential payout.  And have been waiting for it to improve, it kept moving the other way tho.  It moved a half point on espn, my book stayed the same.

    It was prob a reckless bet.  And i had a little liquid courage last night when i made it ;) but i still am not overly concerned about it. 

    I have had a decent season, to date, and have been spreading small bets out over multiple teams, diluting profits due to some losses.  Do i figured i would lay down less teams, bigger bets this week, see how i do.


    Hope you cover, that stadium will be rocking and it will be LOUD!
  • #5129 by DadVader1 on 11 Oct 2013
  • Here's what I've done so far this week.  If that one last stinking power rating system will update their numbers, I'll probably add 1 or 2 more last minute plays.

    Louisville -16.5 5 units L
    UCLA -24         3 units
    Ball St -13.5     5 units
    Clemson -23.5   5 units
    Ohio -16.5        3 units
    N. Ill -21.5        3 units
    Ariz St. -24.5    3 units
  • #5130 by Hawgndaaz on 11 Oct 2013
  • Duke is off my board as of this morning, any idea why?
  • #5131 by WILL CLINTON on 11 Oct 2013
  • Duke is off my board as of this morning, any idea why?

    No clue, still on at 5dimes and sportsbook.

  • #5132 by Huckleberry Pig on 11 Oct 2013
  • had two winners last night but didn't post them so not gonna count them.  if ya want to check you can go to sbrforum.com and look for a thread i have there (same username).  still not gonna count them, but was on Rutgers and USC. 

    I will be holding off OU, better games on the board.

    is anyone else shocked a&m is only a -5.5 favorite??

    I know I am.  Got this from a guy on the sbr board:

    Manziel, Malena, and Carson haven't lost a game by less than 12 points when rushing for over 200 yards since last season dating back since playing ole miss last year. Here's the thing about ole miss though- their rushing defense last year was playing much better. Both bama and Auburn more than doubled their yards on the ground [this year] and this isn't because they pounded a bunch more attempts- this is because they both doubled their average yards per carry! This does not bode well for the rebels - their better defense last year allowed 290 rushing yards and 7 yards per carry to Manziel and co last year


    Really like a&m to win by a TD or more.



  • #5133 by widespreadsooie on 11 Oct 2013
  • had two winners last night but didn't post them so not gonna count them.  if ya want to check you can go to sbrforum.com and look for a thread i have there (same username).  still not gonna count them, but was on Rutgers and USC. 

    I will be holding off OU, better games on the board.

    is anyone else shocked a&m is only a -5.5 favorite??

    I know I am.  Got this from a guy on the sbr board:

    Manziel, Malena, and Carson haven't lost a game by less than 12 points when rushing for over 200 yards since last season dating back since playing ole miss last year. Here's the thing about ole miss though- their rushing defense last year was playing much better. Both bama and Auburn more than doubled their yards on the ground [this year] and this isn't because they pounded a bunch more attempts- this is because they both doubled their average yards per carry! This does not bode well for the rebels - their better defense last year allowed 290 rushing yards and 7 yards per carry to Manziel and co last year


    Really like a&m to win by a TD or more.





    I read that forum and covers for the first few weeks of football until I realized that no stock should be put into anything anyone posts on there. This thread right here has way more insight and intelligence than 98% of those boards combined. This guy may have a hunch, who knows. I definitely don't know, but I would be weary of taking an angle off that board and justifying your play with it. I personally like OM getting the points at home, but it's a no play. This game could be the TN/UGA of last week.
  • #5134 by nughaud on 11 Oct 2013
  • I post on SBR from time to time (different username), and while 90% of it is BS, there are some really smart people on there, you just have to find them.

    I'm on A&M and The Cocks.
    I'll take less than a TD with superior teams and although A&M has a weak defense, that doesn't bother me one bit and Ole Miss has LSU next week, while A&M has a fun loving Auburn team, which should be a barn burner for points.
    Sometimes is just comes down to your gut, but both A&M and USC-East are the better teams than their competition.
    The Boise St is another one that I don't understand. You can't lose your darkhorse Heisman QB and expect to compete. The same thing applies here, better team and a TD or less to cover.
  • #5135 by checkraiser88 on 11 Oct 2013
  • What do you guys think of Temple at +21 against Cinci tonight? Temple is 0-5, however 3 of those losses are against good teams and Cincinatti lost to a horrible South Florida team last week..
  • #5136 by thearkie on 11 Oct 2013
  • Picks-

    Boise -7
    Miss St -10
    Northwestern +10
    Oregon St +1.5
    Denver/Jags over
    Bengals -7

  • #5137 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 11 Oct 2013
  • Don't like anything tonight but may go with a baseball play. Getting good value with the cards at +118 at home.
  • #5138 by Huckleberry Pig on 11 Oct 2013
  • I read that forum and covers for the first few weeks of football until I realized that no stock should be put into anything anyone posts on there. This thread right here has way more insight and intelligence than 98% of those boards combined. This guy may have a hunch, who knows. I definitely don't know, but I would be weary of taking an angle off that board and justifying your play with it. I personally like OM getting the points at home, but it's a no play. This game could be the TN/UGA of last week.

    100% agree, the guy that posted it is one of the few I actually listen too.  Takes some waders to get through that site.  like you said, lot's of BS. 
  • #5139 by widespreadsooie on 11 Oct 2013
  • LSU -1/UGA -1.5 tease... 3u
  • #5140 by nughaud on 11 Oct 2013
  • Cinci -20 (-105) tonight looks like the play. Just not sure if Cinci's D can keep them from getting 14-17 which could make for a cover.
    I'm looking to also tease with another team such as A&M, Cocks or Boise St to basically get a pick-em. Also Nebraska to bring to 8 or 8.5 from -14.5

    The teaser would be Cinci -14 or -13.5 if you want 6.5 teaser to go with a team above.

    Cinci lost to USF but had (4) turnovers, a blocked kick and a missed extra point. There was a death on the team that week, and it looks like they just weren't concentrating. They lost their QB against Illini for the year, but they have a senior QB Kay, who is capable. I'm not for sure how good Cinci's defense is, but their overall players are just simply better.

    Temple is just a very bad team. I just can't justify them covering unless it's a late TD, even with Cinci's performance last game, which was a road game and this is @ home. I don't like laying 20 points, so while I'll probably put a little down, I'll check out the in-progress wagering during the game. That's when you get the best bets.

    If you like a team who is say favored -7 and they go down 10-0. Then take then when the line shows up at pick'em or -3 early on.  It's all subjective, but if you are watching the game you can usually tell when the score doesn't equate to the field. Just another way to get a better line if you are unsure. If they jump out quick and go up say 14-0, then either don't play it or maybe take the other side. Just don't jump on it ASAP unless you are getting great value.

    In last night's Rutgers game I bought to +21 before the game and then in-game I took  +20.5, +21, and the gem of it all +24.5 when it was 17-0.  Those are what you look for. Even if you lose, it's the value you are getting.

    I'm looking at a 38-13 score for Cinci, and that's just what I feel it will be, which would make for an under play.
  • #5141 by Hog0808 on 11 Oct 2013
  • OU -11.5?
  • #5142 by nughaud on 11 Oct 2013
  • A couple of things to consider in the Baylor game:
    -First half line at -10 I believe. I say take it all day!!! They were up 56-14 at half against WV.
    - Total points at 74.....Pretty fair! They have scored 70 in the 3 games this year.
    - Baylor -17.5...Was at 17, 17.5 still fair! They could possibly bench starters at halftime though which could be a problem

    All the places I'm at have -10.5 with the best being -110.
    I'm still seeing -17, but most as of right now are -17.5
  • #5143 by nughaud on 11 Oct 2013
  • OU -11.5?

    I'm seeing -10.5, lots of money just came in on Texas within the last few hours. Those are always hard to tell. Could be injury, sharp money, or a head fake to get better line on OU.

    -10.5 leaves many options for a tease open. It would be great if it hit 10, but it could turn around too.

    I like the 1st half play on OU of -6.5 play with the line drop.
  • #5144 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 11 Oct 2013
  • Friday card:

    NCAAF

    U53 cinci/temple.   1 unit
    Cinci -20.5.            1 unit

    MLB PLAYOFFS

    over 7 runs.       1 unit
    Cardinals +118. 1 unit
    Parlay same way 1 unit

    NHL:

    LA kings -135.  1 unit
  • #5145 by WILL CLINTON on 11 Oct 2013
  • Took the following for tonight:

    Cincy -20.5  1*

    Adding:
    OU -11

  • #5146 by nughaud on 11 Oct 2013
  • Did you guys see that Dodgers stat, showing .333 batting avg and then shows 4 teams which had slightly lower who all won the World Series?  I had it on mute, so I couldn't tell the context. Was it for a post season series avg?
  • #5147 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 11 Oct 2013
  • Did you guys see that Dodgers stat, showing .333 batting avg and then shows 4 teams which had slightly lower who all won the World Series?  I had it on mute, so I couldn't tell the context. Was it for a post season series avg?

    Yes.
  • #5148 by widespreadsooie on 11 Oct 2013
  • Can't really believe the Cincy total jumping like that. Sharp money may have came in? On another note, hit a new level of degenerate with a play on the Temple TT u17.
  • #5149 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 11 Oct 2013
  • 2 more NCAAF losses tonight. I guess the hot streak is over.
  • #5150 by nughaud on 11 Oct 2013
  • I think Temple has found their QB, this true freshman is pretty damn good.
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