SEC at the turn

[niels_boar]

I'm going to give summaries of the measurables, strengths, and weaknesses of each team in this thread.  The strengths and weaknesses are relative to other SEC teams according to the numbers.  Keep in mind that Pomeroy has every SEC team in his top 81, i.e. at least of NIT quality.  Hence, being below average in the SEC in a category does not necessarily mean that the team is deficient in that category, although being elite in the SEC in any category is probably elite period, or pretty close. 

The range of schedule strengths covers almost the entire gamut from Tennessee's strong schedule to the laughably weak schedule of MSU.  That makes comparisons fraught with uncertainty.  I've implemented a simple normalization for the quality of opposition that a team has faced in each category.  For instance, a team's score for 2FG% was given a boost or decrease depending on the average defensive 2FG% of their opponents.  I'm not claiming that this is the ground truth or that I believe everything the numbers say, but they are what they are.  Also, this is a snapshot.  Teams will evolve over the next two months.

Arkansas:

Massey Composite Ranking: 14
Minutes weighted height:  76.8 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 208 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #12(N), #44(H), #83(H)
Worst MCR losses: #41 (R), #5(N)
Pace: Fast

Overall offense:  Elite

Offensive strengths: good deuce FG%, scores deuces at a high rate, elite trey percentage, elite at avoiding TOs, good assist rate

Offensive weaknesses: cellar in offensive rebounding



Overall defense: just above SEC average (but #43 nationally according to Pomeroy)

Defensive strengths: allows a low deuce rate, well above average defensive rebounding, elite at forcing TOs

Defensive weaknesses: surrenders high 2FG%

No, that's not a misprint.  We have allowed a, relatively speaking, high 2FG%, but the rate at which teams have scored deuces is low.  I'll claim that implies method to the madness of pressuring and forcing tempo.  We give up some bunnies in transition, but we force enough TOs that the rate at which teams convert is low.  We have reaped advantages on O and in stamina of forcing tempo without giving too much on the tradeoff so far.   

[niels_boar]

Tennessee:

Massey Composite Ranking: 16
Minutes weighted height:  75.5 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 200 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #4(N), #68(N), #93(R)
Worst MCR losses: #5 (H), #1(N)
Pace: Average

Overall offense:  Slightly above SEC average

Offensive strengths: elite 3FG%, good trey rate, elite assist rate, good on offensive glass

Offensive weaknesses: low 2FG%, low deuce rate, low FT rate



Overall defense: Elite

Defensive strengths: elite D2FG%, elite D deuce rate, elite D3FG%, elite D trey rate, elite TO rate, elite D assist rate

Defensive weaknesses: poor on defensive glass, fouls a bit

 

[niels_boar]

MSU:

Massey Composite Ranking: 69
Minutes weighted height:  77.5 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 201 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #96(H), #111(H), #139(H)
Worst MCR losses: #24 (R)
Pace: Slightly below average

Overall offense:  Cellar

Offensive strengths: elite 2FG%, elite deuce rate

Offensive weaknesses: cellar 3FG%, low trey rate, cellar assist rate, high TO rate, low FT rate



Overall defense: Elite

Defensive strengths: good D2FG%, elite D deuce rate, high TO rate, good D assist rate, elite at not fouling

Defensive weaknesses: surrenders high trey rate, weak on defensive glass

MSU has played almost nobody.  Their defensive numbers have been awesome, but they haven't been able to score efficiently.  They are a wild card in the SEC depending on whether they can put the biscuit in the basket.  MSU figures to be a tough out at home with friendly rims.  They may struggle to score enough on the road.

[niels_boar]

Auburn:

Massey Composite Ranking: 28
Minutes weighted height:  76.2 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 205 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #58(N), #100(R), #111(R)
Worst MCR losses: #64 (N)
Pace: fast

Overall offense:  Above SEC average

Offensive strengths: good trey percentage, elite trey rate, elite offensive rebounding, good FT rate

Offensive weaknesses: low 2FG%, low deuce rate, mediocre ball handling


Overall defense: Slightly below SEC average

Defensive strengths: elite D2FG%, elite at denying deuces, good TO rate

Defensive weaknesses: cellar D3FG%, surrenders high trey rate, surrenders high assist rate, fouls a lot

I wouldn't discount their true road wins against 100ish opponents.  Auburn may be bubblicious or better.  Another wild card.

[niels_boar]

LSU:

Massey Composite Ranking: 79
Minutes weighted height:  76.6 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 197 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #29(N), #41(H), #150(R)
Worst MCR losses: #96 (H), #53(N), #46(N)
Pace: plodders

Overall offense: Elite

Offensive strengths: elite 2FG%, elite deuce rate, good 3FG%, good trey rate, good on the offensive glass, relatively low TO rate

Offensive weaknesses: rarely get to line


Overall defense: Dreadful

Defensive strengths: surrender low assist rate, decent forced TO rate

Defensive weaknesses: poor D2FG%, allows high deuce rate, poor D3FG%, treys rain on them, lousy on the glass, foul a lot

It's as if Johnny Jones never left.  Their O is impressive, but they don't defend.  If they start getting some stops at some point, they could be a problem.  They will probably win some games they aren't supposed to by simply outscoring the opponents.

[niels_boar]

Missouri:

Massey Composite Ranking: 38
Minutes weighted height:  76.6 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 197 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #43(N), #70(H), #75(R)
Worst MCR losses: #80 (N), #63(R), #11(N)
Pace: plodders

Overall offense: Elite

Offensive strengths: elite 2FG%, good 3FG%, elite trey rate, elite on offensive glass, high assist rate

Offensive weaknesses: low deuce rate, high TO rate


Overall defense: Just below SEC average

Defensive strengths: elite on defensive glass, allow few assists, foul sparingly

Defensive weaknesses: allow high deuce rate, force few TOs


On the stat sheet Mizzou looks like an NCAAT team.  Their schedule has been moderate, and their results look less impressive than the numbers.  I don't know what to make of them.

[niels_boar]

Florida:

Massey Composite Ranking: 48
Minutes weighted height:  76.8 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 197 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #18(N), #24(N), #149(N)
Worst MCR losses: #105 (N), #22(N), #21(H)
Pace: brisk

Overall offense: Elite

Offensive strengths: good trey percentage, high trey rate, elite at avoiding TOs

Offensive weaknesses: mediocre on offensive glass, low assist rate


Overall defense: Well below SEC average

Defensive strengths: low trey rate, good on defensive glass, allow low assist rate

Defensive weaknesses: high D2FG%, surrender high deuce rate, mediocre D3FG%, foul quite a bit

All over the map.  Allen has had a bad year.  Will he return to form?  What impact will Egbunu make?  He will probably help solve their defensive problems inside.  The low assist rate indicates that their offense is dependent on shot-making, which makes them inconsistent.  Looks like a team that could surge in February if Egbunu shores up their D.  They have unrealized potential.

[niels_boar]

Ole Miss:

Massey Composite Ranking: 103
Minutes weighted height:  76.7 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 205 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #110(H), #121(H), #123(H)
Worst MCR losses: #132 (H), #89(H), #63(N)
Pace: fast

Overall offense: Average

Offensive strengths: high trey rate, low TO rate, elite assist rate

Offensive weaknesses: no boards


Overall defense: Thank god for LSU

Defensive strengths: don't foul excessively

Defensive weaknesses: high D2FG%, surrender high deuce rate, gush treys with efficiency, poor on glass, surrender high assist rate


Ole Miss hasn't accomplished anything in nonconference except perhaps put Kennedy's job in jeopardy.  Given the guards they had returning, I assumed Ole Miss would be better than this.  I presume Saiz has not been replaced at all, but I haven't seen them play.

[niels_boar]

UGA:

Massey Composite Ranking: 62
Minutes weighted height:  78 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 213 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #37(N), #53(R), #64(H)
Worst MCR losses: #155 (R), #57(N)
Pace: plodders

Overall offense: Cellar

Offensive strengths: good on offensive glass, elite at getting to the line

Offensive weaknesses: cellar in 2FG% and deuce rate, poor 3FG%, cellar trey rate, cellar TO rate


Overall defense: Below SEC average

Defensive strengths: force low percentages from arc, good on defensive glass, don't foul excessively

Defensive weaknesses: allow high deuce rate, cellar in forcing TOs


The opposite of Mizzou in that their results look better than their numbers.  As usual, Fox is a master at teaching his guys to drive into the lane and fall down in order to get to the line.  They depend heavily on Manten for O.  They have some impressive wins against Marquette and St, Mary's with their formula of win the line and win the boards.  Is that a viable formula in the SEC this year?  Their history has been to be better in conference than out.

[FineAsSwine]

That's all for now.  The rest later in the weekend.

Thanks guy. Good work.

[bigred223]

Nice summaries. Thanks.

[PonderinHog]

SCRUK!   

[Razorod]

As always, good stuff.

[HogFansReunited]

Man, great work as always.

[niels_boar]

Texas A&M:

Massey Composite Ranking: 9
Minutes weighted height:  78 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 212 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #11(N), #45(N), #49(R)
Worst MCR losses: #19(N)
Pace: fast

Overall offense: Slightly below SEC average

Offensive strengths: good deuce rate, elite assist rate

Offensive weaknesses: cellar at getting to the line


Overall defense: Awesome

Defensive strengths: elite D2FG%, elite D3FG%, stingy trey rate, good on defensive glass, elite at not fouling

Defensive weaknesses: force few TOs, surrender high assist rate


Their O is fairly SEC average in all respects.  As we saw today, without Hogg knocking down treys at a high rate their O brings them back to the pack despite their quite impressive defense.  They are still the favorite at full strength, but even then I don't know if their O is good enough to pull away from the rest of the SEC.  No team looks strong enough on both sides of the ball to get out of SEC play without 5 or 6 losses due to the high level of competition.

BTW A&M is the only SEC team with a defense better than Tennessee, and not by much.  Anybody disappointed with posting a W by hook or crook today hasn't been paying attention.

[niels_boar]

South Carolina:

Massey Composite Ranking: 65
Minutes weighted height:  77.5 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 212 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #125(H), #151(R), #155(H)
Worst MCR losses: #132 (N), #64(N), #22(R)
Pace: Average

Overall offense:  Cellar

Offensive strengths: get to the line a little

Offensive weaknesses: low 2FG%, cellar 3FG%, poor trey rate, weak on boards, gush TOs, few assists



Overall defense: Elite

Defensive strengths: surrender low deuce rate, surrender low trey rate, elite defensive rebounding, elite TO rate

Defensive weaknesses: fouls like crazy


USC like MSU looks impressive on defense but hasn't accomplished a lot on offense.  They are strong enough on defense to beat anybody at home on a given night but may struggle to score enough on the road.

[niels_boar]

Bama:

Massey Composite Ranking: 55
Minutes weighted height:  77.9 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 207 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #42(H), #56(N), #76(H)
Worst MCR losses: #75 (H), #44(N), #30(N)
Pace: Brisk

Overall offense:  well below SEC average

Offensive strengths: high 2FG%, elite at getting to the line

Offensive weaknesses: low 3FG%, low trey rate, weak on offensive glass, high TO rate, cellar assist rate



Overall defense: below SEC average

Defensive strengths: None

Defensive weaknesses: below average D2FG%, surrender high deuce rate, high D3FG%, not great on boards


Their results look like a bubble team with a lot of close games against NIT/bubble competition, though they played up to their competition at Arizona.  The young talent has improved their offense over a year ago, but their defense hasn't been nearly as good.  Their win over A&M is by far their most impressive performance, though they caught a break playing against the second-string backcourt.  Will they evolve into a strong defensive team?  They depend on young players and have recently added Key.  Bama could improve dramatically, but who knows?

[niels_boar]

Kentucky:

Massey Composite Ranking: 27
Minutes weighted height:  78.9 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 209 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #39(H), #90(H), #95(H)
Worst MCR losses: #57 (N), #7(N)
Pace: Brisk

Overall offense:  SEC average

Offensive strengths: high 2FG%, elite deuce rate, elite on offensive glass, good assist rate

Offensive weaknesses: cellar trey rate, cellar TO rate



Overall defense: SEC average

Defensive strengths: low D2FG%, good D3FG%, don't foul

Defensive weaknesses: surrender high trey rate, poor on defensive glass, cellar assist rate



Thus far, huge, athletic team that defends well but can't shoot from the perimeter or handle.  How much will they improve? They aren't going to dominate the SEC this season regardless.

[niels_boar]

Vandy:

Massey Composite Ranking: 104
Minutes weighted height:  77.0 inches
Minutes weighted mass: 196 lbs
Three best MCR wins: #166(H), #184(H), #225(H)
Worst MCR losses: #87 (R), #58(H), #54(H)
Pace: Brisk

Overall offense:  cellar

Offensive strengths: decent trey rate, low TO rate, elite at getting to the line

Offensive weaknesses: cellar 2FG%, cellar deuce rate, cellar 3FG%, cellar on glass, cellar assist rate



Overall defense: well below SEC average

Defensive strengths: elite D3FG%, elite trey rate, good on defensive glass, elite assist rate

Defensive weaknesses: cellar D2FG%, cellar deuce rate, cellar TO rate, foul a lot



Vandy may have got beaten down by overscheduling. Like Ole Miss it is difficult to believe that they are this unaccomplished with their perimeter players.  Their numbers look like a classic donut team.  They are stingy on the perimeter on D but give it all back inside.  Probably better than their numbers.