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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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Otis

Quote from: onebadrubi on August 09, 2015, 12:21:57 pm
Yes you can use a card if you want, some may cap the amount and number of transactions in one day but they all should allow.

I would research some of the following and decide for yourself.  Also pick more than one, don't pull all eggs in one basket. 

5dimes
pinnacle
bet365
bookmaker
betdsi

thousands of reviews for each.  Check for payouts in timely manner and good customer service reviews.  Do not deposit on a whim, sportsbook can pack up over night and go under.  5dimes and pinnacle are probably two of the more popular i know of.


Thanks. Had just heard that credit card companies blocked a lot of these deposits. Was looking at bovada and some of the reviews stated difficulty in cc deposits.

onebadrubi

Quote from: Otis on August 09, 2015, 04:02:32 pm

Thanks. Had just heard that credit card companies blocked a lot of these deposits. Was looking at bovada and some of the reviews stated difficulty in cc deposits.

Bovada is another popular one I know nothing about.  Most use a CC processor that is not in the united states, so you card can block the "foreign" transaction.  One way around that is before you make a deposit call the card company and have them lift the block.  I am sure if you talk to the customer service department at which ever book they can give you a country that the processor is and just tell the card company to allow transactions from that country.  I've had to do this when traveling out of the country. 

 

sooiepig_12

China Super League soccer tomorrow.  Shanghai vs. Greentown what y'all think?

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: sooiepig_12 on August 11, 2015, 12:51:12 am
China Super League soccer tomorrow.  Shanghai vs. Greentown what y'all think?

Ask your mom.
Let's make some waves.

onebadrubi

Quote from: sooiepig_12 on August 11, 2015, 12:51:12 am
China Super League soccer tomorrow.  Shanghai vs. Greentown what y'all think?

That would be gambling. I can't condone such behavior

The Hogfather

Anyone betting any futures?  Specifically, which teams are the value plays to win NCAA Championship and Super Bowl?

yraciv

NCAA Futures - I see value in Stanford 40/1, Oklahoma 35/1.  Both teams return some key starters, have a veteran quarterback, favorable schedules, and in Stanfords game a Championship game in their backyard.

The Hogfather

Quote from: yraciv on August 12, 2015, 12:55:06 pm
NCAA Futures - I see value in Stanford 40/1, Oklahoma 35/1.  Both teams return some key starters, have a veteran quarterback, favorable schedules, and in Stanfords game a Championship game in their backyard.

Stanford was my value pick as well!  Good thinking!

widespreadsooie

I like Stanford for value too. My favorite preseason bet is Hogs o8 wins.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

The Hogfather


Hawgndaaz

this thread again? damnit.

Told myself I was out of the game this year...

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on August 13, 2015, 08:45:19 am
this thread again? damnit.

Told myself I was out of the game this year...

Lol, we'll be seeing ya...

 

DadVader1

Ha!  Glad to see this thread pop back up to the front page.  I got married over the summer so will have less time to play with spreadsheets.  Hopefully, I have things sufficiently automated to be able to stay up-to-date despite having a more packed schedule.  The power rating systems just flat sucked ATS last season.  Here's hoping that that was a rare occurrence and that they get things dialed in better this season. 

onebadrubi

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on August 13, 2015, 08:45:19 am
this thread again? damnit.

Told myself I was out of the game this year...

Ugh oh. I didn't feed a bad habit for you did I?  Get you set up?

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: onebadrubi on August 13, 2015, 04:32:26 pm
Ugh oh. I didn't feed a bad habit for you did I?  Get you set up?

I never set it all up, because it was in the offseason. I may contact him again soon though if this itch doesn't go away!

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Played a little today.

Texans -3 / 1 unit
Detroit tigers 69.00 to win 100.00
Mets -1.5   57.00 to win 100.00
Let's make some waves.

onebadrubi

Well, I am trying to keep the thread alive. 

How in the world is the Utah/Michigan game only a -5 Utah spread!  Something isn't right but I sure might take Utah tomorrow along with TCU.  Football season is almost here!

hogcard1964

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 02, 2015, 12:51:50 pm
Well, I am trying to keep the thread alive. 

How in the world is the Utah/Michigan game only a -5 Utah spread!  Something isn't right but I sure might take Utah tomorrow along with TCU.  Football season is almost here!

New blood at Michigan.  The Harbaugh factor may work until he's run out of this job in two to three years.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 02, 2015, 12:51:50 pm
Well, I am trying to keep the thread alive. 

How in the world is the Utah/Michigan game only a -5 Utah spread!  Something isn't right but I sure might take Utah tomorrow along with TCU.  Football season is almost here!

I like Utah tomorrow, along with UTSA and WKU.

The Hogfather

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 02, 2015, 12:51:50 pm
Well, I am trying to keep the thread alive. 

How in the world is the Utah/Michigan game only a -5 Utah spread!  Something isn't right but I sure might take Utah tomorrow along with TCU.  Football season is almost here!

As of right this second, I'm thinking I'm going to bet the shiz out of Utah.

onebadrubi

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 02, 2015, 12:57:30 pm
I like Utah tomorrow, along with UTSA and WKU.

The WKU line movement is scaring me off. 

I really want to drop a few on utah, but just something about my memory from last year with -4 and -5 lines and I can't remember what I told myself.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 02, 2015, 01:05:50 pm
The WKU line movement is scaring me off. 

I really want to drop a few on utah, but just something about my memory from last year with -4 and -5 lines and I can't remember what I told myself.

I'm thinking the Utah line is low to bait the public on a historic power with a new, highly respected coach. That's just my guess but Utah is also returning a slew of talent that went into The Bighouse last year and won convincingly.

WILL CLINTON

I actually like Michigan in that game, but won't bet on it. I like to call it the Houston Nutt effect. I think Harbaugh has those guys playing above their heads for the first few games at least.

For tomorrow I like Duke -7 v Tulane, and Ohio -7 v Idaho.

For the weekend I like Az St +3.5 and ND -10 vs Texas.

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

 

widespreadsooie

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on September 02, 2015, 03:56:49 pm
I actually like Michigan in that game, but won't bet on it. I like to call it the Houston Nutt effect. I think Harbaugh has those guys playing above their heads for the first few games at least.

For tomorrow I like Duke -7 v Tulane, and Ohio -7 v Idaho.

For the weekend I like Az St +3.5 and ND -10 vs Texas.



I'm with you on ND, favorite play of week 1. Be careful with Duke, massive reverse line movement on that game. Line dropped from 11 to 7 with about 2/3 bets coming in on Duke.

SPAL


ChicoHog

Ok,  I'm in boys.  Put 2 units on WKU vs Vandy, 2 units on the under ND/Texas.  I don't see the offensive inept Longhorns scoring much against the strong Irish D.  I'm thinking hard about Utah, Minnesota +17 and Ohio. 

edit:  Just did 3 team parlay on utah-5, Minnesota +17 and Ohio -7. 

onebadrubi

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 02, 2015, 04:36:49 pm
I'm with you on ND, favorite play of week 1. Be careful with Duke, massive reverse line movement on that game. Line dropped from 11 to 7 with about 2/3 bets coming in on Duke.

If the line went from -11 to -7 it means money came in on Tulane, and I like betting against public money line movement

hawgmasta

I would love to start this back up and participate this year. I'm in two fantasy football leagues and will be playing units in football a lot hopefully. I have way more time at home this season so will be playing and studying all I can.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 02, 2015, 10:48:02 pm
If the line went from -11 to -7 it means money came in on Tulane, and I like betting against public money line movement

Sharp money moved the line. You have around 65% (depending on where you look) of the bets, not money, come in on Duke.

DadVader1

Went 1/2 unit each on:

Tenn -20.5
Utah -4.5
TCU -16.5

Looking forward to the new season!

OnYourToes

Quote from: ChicoHog on September 02, 2015, 10:40:19 pm
edit:  Just did 3 team parlay on utah-5, Minnesota +17 and Ohio -7. 

Validation, I was holding out for a sign to take Minn and now I'm all over it.
Utah seems safe

I agree with the Duke movement, scared me off.

I'm taking ND +10 over Texas as well

Great to be back in the fold this season!
Quote from: Fresh Legs on September 22, 2006, 09:56:48 am
Quote from: OnYourToes on September 22, 2006, 09:48:23 am
The wife's b-day was this past Tuesday, I got her a gift certifiacte for a message, she is going to redeem it Saturday, around 2:35ish.  I had it planned all along.  House to myself, game on, free to yell as loud as I can!!!!!

You sir are a genius!

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 02, 2015, 04:36:49 pm
I'm with you on ND, favorite play of week 1. Be careful with Duke, massive reverse line movement on that game. Line dropped from 11 to 7 with about 2/3 bets coming in on Duke.

I paid real close attention to RLM for a couple of years, but I couldn't find a real system, or trend to follow, so now I just go with my gut.

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 02, 2015, 06:59:51 pm
Good to see will back in the fold.

Thanks man, I'll be in sporadically, but hopefully once a week at least. School is still taking up the most part of my time.

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 03, 2015, 08:18:42 am
Sharp money moved the line. You have around 65% (depending on where you look) of the bets, not money, come in on Duke.

This is where I get lost when trying to understand how RLM affects the lines or peoples bets. For example, if 65% of the bets come in on Duke totaling $100k, but the 35% of the Tulane bets total $250k, then the money on Tulane moved the line, even though the majority of the bets came in for Duke. I couldn't track it as beneficial or derogatory, so I just stop paying attention for the most part.

I'm also leaning heavily on Washington +12.5 tomorrow. I saw Chris Peterson beat too many teams "better than his" with plenty of time to plan. Georgia a few years ago and Oklahoma in the bowl game come to mind immediately. 

I'm starting out this year with $1k in my fictional sportsbook account, and unless otherwise noted, all bets will be 10% of the beginning balance of the week. I.E. all the bets this week so far will be $100.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on September 03, 2015, 11:06:35 am
I paid real close attention to RLM for a couple of years, but I couldn't find a real system, or trend to follow, so now I just go with my gut.

Hey man, going with your gut is always the best option in my opinion.

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on September 03, 2015, 11:06:35 am
This is where I get lost when trying to understand how RLM affects the lines or peoples bets. For example, if 65% of the bets come in on Duke totaling $100k, but the 35% of the Tulane bets total $250k, then the money on Tulane moved the line, even though the majority of the bets came in for Duke. I couldn't track it as beneficial or derogatory, so I just stop paying attention for the most part.

The normal gist or assumption behind RLM is that the wise guys are against the public and that's who you want to side with, the wise guys.

onebadrubi

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 03, 2015, 11:23:19 am
Hey man, going with your gut is always the best option in my opinion.

The normal gist or assumption behind RLM is that the wise guys are against the public and that's who you want to side with, the wise guys.


Yes, but you can also find lines that the sportsbooks will move to get the public money on one side.  They know how to move lines to get people to jump on a side when they need money on that side.  When this happens it is best to go against the line move. 

I was really hoping to see money bring the UTAH line down to the 3's today, and it got real close at -4 but I waited and now it's blown all the way up +6.

SPAL


widespreadsooie

Minimum wagers on the following:

Tulane +7
UTSA +32
Utah -5
WKU -2.5

WILL CLINTON

Washington was up to +13.5 on sportsbook so I went ahead and added it.

I also buy the hook on all bets over 3.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Went all chalk tonight.
SC - 1
Utah -5
Freaking Frogs -16

All one unit plays
Let's make some waves.

HogPharmer

The Frogs not looking like the #2 team in the nation against a bottom feeder of the bottom feeding power 5 conference... Not liking this for my (and most everyone's) bet slip
Quote from: WorfHog on April 05, 2019, 11:26:00 pmRemember when Auburn dog piled AND THEY LOST!
Quote from: Pig in the Pokey on June 07, 2022, 01:57:05 pmRuscin needs a big one- Michael Carter has been our best player- or second best at worst- lately.
Quote from: PorkSoda on August 21, 2019, 02:19:03 pmwe can't be terrible forever.
Quote from: The OTR on December 01, 2018, 09:43:29 amGonna start reward season with an important one.
Hogpharmer.  There will be no vote.  He rid us of hoginmemphis, otherwise known as gomerbullinmemphis, and no one else can match that accomplishment in our lifetime.

yraciv

September 03, 2015, 10:42:15 pm #8390 Last Edit: September 07, 2015, 12:08:45 pm by yraciv
My plays this week so far are:

Ohio -7 W
Minnesota +16.5 W
No Il/UNLV Under 62 L
Louisville +10.5 W
Tennessee -20.5 W
Boise -13 L

Week 1 - 4-2 YTD 4-2

widespreadsooie

Quote from: yraciv on September 03, 2015, 10:42:15 pm
My plays this week so far are:

Ohio -7
Minnesota +16.5
No Il/UNLV Under 62
Louisville +10.5
Tennessee -20.5

Looking at LOU as well

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: HogPharmer on September 03, 2015, 10:38:40 pm
The Frogs not looking like the #2 team in the nation against a bottom feeder of the bottom feeding power 5 conference... Not liking this for my (and most everyone's) bet slip

They sure aren't looking very good.
Let's make some waves.

jkstock04

Quote from: HogPharmer on September 03, 2015, 10:38:40 pm
The Frogs not looking like the #2 team in the nation against a bottom feeder of the bottom feeding power 5 conference... Not liking this for my (and most everyone's) bet slip
After the 3rd or 4th time of betting against Minnesota last year I decided I was done. They are a pesky team that always seem to cover the spread.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

The Hogfather

Quote from: The Hogfather on September 02, 2015, 01:00:16 pm
As of right this second, I'm thinking I'm going to bet the shiz out of Utah.

Boom!  $3 richer!

widespreadsooie

Anyone have leans for tonight? Looking at Boise and Michigan St.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Went 2 of 3 last night.  I was scared of that Frogs game, but bet it anyway. My mistake.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Leaning toward Baylor, and Boise tonight. 

Scares me I'm not seeing many dogs I like.
Let's make some waves.

MS_HogFan

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on September 03, 2015, 05:45:47 pm
Washington was up to +13.5 on sportsbook so I went ahead and added it.

I also buy the hook on all bets over 3.

What does it mean to buy a hook?
SOOIE

hammer66