How would you rate Arkansas' chances at a Sweet 16 run?

[Sweet Feet]

Your take

[jgphillips3]

I'll go 50%.  We are a senior laden team.  We got a reasonable first round game and the best #2 seed we could have drawn.  If we play our game, we can absolutely make the Sweet 16.  We can also lose the first game if we are flat but I think the seniors will lay it all out there.

[Hawg Red]

I went with 25%, though my actual % is probably closer to 40%. I think we have a fair shot.

[Dugann]

I can see it setting up well for us.

[12247]

I chose 25 percent because I don't think its zero.  I think we are about at 10 percent of reaching the 16.

I know nothing of Butler this season but usually they are a seasoned NCAA team and usually play above their ranking.  I will be mildly surprised if we win that game.  I would have rather been in Florida's position but we got what we deserved. 

IF WE COME TO PLAY, we could win our first 2 games.  IF< IF <IF.

[BannerMountainMan]

I chose 25 percent because I don't think its zero.  I think we are about at 10 percent of reaching the 16.

I know nothing of Butler this season but usually they are a seasoned NCAA team and usually play above their ranking.  I will be mildly surprised if we win that game.  I would have rather been in Florida's position but we got what we deserved. 

IF WE COME TO PLAY, we could win our first 2 games.  IF< IF <IF.

Florida got better than what they deserved, 20-12 and not winning a game in the SEC tourney, pathetic

[HamHands]

The seniors will go all out. Barford and Macon did not come back to go out in the 1st or second round. 75%. Nothing in life is 100%.

[steveaustin69]

Pick 'em with Butler. Maybe a 40% shot against Purdue.

.5*.4=.2≈25%

[SemperHawg]

Pick 'em with Butler. Maybe a 40% shot against Purdue.

.5*.4=.2≈25%

This may be due to the fact that I just haven't seen Butler play as much this season, but I actually feel like getting by them may be tougher than Purdue.

[GuvHog]

I chose 25 percent because I don't think its zero.  I think we are about at 10 percent of reaching the 16.

I know nothing of Butler this season but usually they are a seasoned NCAA team and usually play above their ranking.  I will be mildly surprised if we win that game.  I would have rather been in Florida's position but we got what we deserved. 

IF WE COME TO PLAY, we could win our first 2 games.  IF< IF <IF.

Florida actually got a more difficult draw because Texas Tech is better than Purdue. Arkansas actually got the best draw they could have hoped for.

As for Butler, they are not as good as Butler teams usually are. The Hogs have one of the best back court combinations in College basketball plus a 6'11" NBA big man in the middle. The Hogs have the height advantage at almost every position and the bench is deeper than Butler's bench so I very much like the Hogs chances in the first game.

[Atlhogfan1]

Purdue shoots 42% from 3 although they don't on average shoot a high number of 3s.  They still shoot more and better than we do from 3.  They don't turn the ball over frequently.  One of the better defensive teams in college basketball as you would expect from a Painter team.  Not sure this is a great matchup for us and our offense which amounts to Beard, Macon and Barford taking it upon themselves to create offense. 

[orvillesghost]

around 20 percent.

[jjdlc]

Purdue shoots 42% from 3 although they don't on average shoot a high number of 3s.  They still shoot more and better than we do from 3.  They don't turn the ball over frequently.  One of the better defensive teams in college basketball as you would expect from a Painter team.  Not sure this is a great matchup for us and our offense which amounts to Beard, Macon and Barford taking it upon themselves to create offense.

Assuming we make it there, I feel like that game will come down more to how its officiated.  But yeah, it isn't going to be a cakewalk.  Butler isn't going to be an easy game either.  I really think our seniors want to make some noise this year though, and we should see their best efforts.

[Atlhogfan1]

Assuming we make it there, I feel like that game will come down more to how its officiated.  But yeah, it isn't going to be a cakewalk.  Butler isn't going to be an easy game either.  I really think our seniors want to make some noise this year though, and we should see their best efforts.

Purdue is experienced too. They start 4 Srs + So who is their leading scorer.  Crowd dynamics will be interesting especially Sunday as Mich St and Purdue fans will dominate.  We'll see if Mich St fans are loyal to the B1G. 

[Ironhawg]

Honestly I think getting past Butler is likely to be a struggle.

[hog.goblin]

Pick 'em with Butler. Maybe a 40% shot against Purdue.

.5*.4=.2≈25%

This

[hogcards]

50/50 Butler
20/80 Purdue

[Rocket23]

Also this isn't Brad Stevens' Butler.  Their coach this is in his first year there.  He is a Butler alumnus

[mckinneyhog5]

65% Butler
33% Purdue
So, a 32-33% chance.
Butler is not a team to be afraid of this year. People are scared of the name, not the team they put on the floor this year.

[steveaustin69]

65% Butler
33% Purdue
So, a 32-33% chance.
Butler is not a team to be afraid of this year. People are scared of the name, not the team they put on the floor this year.

That's 21%

[mckinneyhog5]

That's 21%

Not really..if you get past Butler, which I have them doing, and you have a 33% chance of beating Purdue to get to the sweet 16, then it's 33%.

[steveaustin69]

Not really..if you get past Butler, which I have them doing, and you have a 33% chance of beating Purdue to get to the sweet 16, then it's 33%.

Guess you skipped the day they covered probability. By the way, your signature line quotes yourself with incorrect grammar. Might want to fix that.

[PygmalionEffect2]

Steve is correct and just to help out Hogcards because I know he would need it, he has the Hogs chances of making it to the Sweet Sixteen as 12.5%.

[hawganatic]

We either will or we won't.  Folliowing that logic, I'm going with 50%...

[PygmalionEffect2]

I have no clue what our odds are since I started my research on here and I'm hearing anything from Purdue is the worst 3 seed to they should be the strongest 2 seed, so the opinions are much too varied.

Similar thing with Butler, although looking at their schedule, it's not impressive at all.  They somehow got a win over Villanova in their first contest but then lost big the last two times they played them,  so barring some weird matchup problems or us just having an off shooting day (which can happen to anyone), we should get by Butler.

[The Hogfather]

I went with 100% just because that's how I thought everyone would answer.

[DEVIL DOG HOG]

50% either we make it or we don't.

[The Hogfather]

I have no clue what our odds are since I started my research on here and I'm hearing anything from Purdue is the worst 3 seed to they should be the strongest 2 seed, so the opinions are much too varied.

Similar thing with Butler, although looking at their schedule, it's not impressive at all.  They somehow got a win over Villanova in their first contest but then lost big the last two times they played them,  so barring some weird matchup problems or us just having an off shooting day (which can happen to anyone), we should get by Butler.

Agreed.  I think we beat Butler, but have no idea how that Purdue game goes.  If we shoot well, we can beat anyone.

[mckinneyhog5]

Guess you skipped the day they covered probability. By the way, your signature line quotes yourself with incorrect grammar. Might want to fix that.

So, if we beat Butler and I have say they have a 33% chance of beating Purdue to make it to the sweet 16, then that percentage drops to 21% because we beat Butler? Also, if we lose to Butler then we still have a 21%, which BTW is the same percentage if we do beat butler, to make it to the sweet 16?

[porkrindjimmy]

Butler likes to get up and down the floor, just like us. If we show up defensively, we should win that game. I expect it will be close but we advance to Sunday.

Purdue will come down to how well Gafford and Thompson match up with their bigs. If we can play their bigs even, I believe we have better guards. If we can stay even with their bigs, we move on to the sweet 16....

And lastly, Beard is a big key. When Anton stays within himself, leads defensively and plays like a coach on the floor, this team is much better.

PRJ

[porkrindjimmy]

Agreed.  I think we beat Butler, but have no idea how that Purdue game goes.  If we shoot well, we can beat anyone.

Purdue comes down to Gafford and Thompson.

PRJ

[mckinneyhog5]

Steve is correct and just to help out Hogcards because I know he would need it, he has the Hogs chances of making it to the Sweet Sixteen as 12.5%.

There is more than one way to figure probabilities.

[OkieBack]

Honestly I think getting past Butler is likely to be a struggle.

Agreed.  Not because I think Butler is any better than the Hogs, but some teams tend to struggle with the tournament environment, jitters, away game mentality.  Focus, focus, focus.  Do what we know we do well.  Stay away from the stuff we know we don't do well.  Just play our game the way we have the last couple of weeks and we should be alright.   

[steveaustin69]

So, if we beat Butler and I have say they have a 33% chance of beating Purdue to make it to the sweet 16, then that percentage drops to 21% because we beat Butler? Also, if we lose to Butler then we still have a 21%, which BTW is the same percentage if we do beat butler, to make it to the sweet 16?

I'm not going to teach you probability, man.

The calculation for your original figures is .65*.33=.2145

The calculation for 33 percent chance at Sweet 16 if beating Purdue is 33% likely is 1.0*.33=.33

[hobhog]

So, if we beat Butler and I have say they have a 33% chance of beating Purdue to make it to the sweet 16, then that percentage drops to 21% because we beat Butler? Also, if we lose to Butler then we still have a 21%, which BTW is the same percentage if we do beat butler, to make it to the sweet 16?

Just stop before it gets ugly....

[OkieBack]

I'm not going to teach you probability, man.

The calculation for your original figures is .65*.33=.2145

The calculation for 33 percent chance at Sweet 16 if beating Purdue is 33% likely is 1.0*.33=.33

What are we talking about here?  Basketball or Statistics?  Just toss out a round % and be done with it.  Trying to apply science to Arkansas basketball is like trying to use a tape measure to gauge water mass or something.  It's freaking Hogball...

[Razorbackmaniac]

Pick 'em with Butler. Maybe a 40% shot against Purdue.

.5*.4=.2≈25%

.5+.4 /2 = 45%

Essentially a 45% chance of winning both games.

[porkrindjimmy]

Who in the hell cares about some fractions and equations and such.

They will tip the ball, when it happens we have a shot. All that counts. I said earlier in the year that this team, when it plays up to it's potential, is a top 10 team. I still believe it.

It is all up to us.

PRJ

[steveaustin69]

Who in the hell cares about some fractions and equations and such.

They will tip the ball, when it happens we have a shot. All that counts. I said earlier in the year that this team, when it plays up to it's potential, is a top 10 team. I still believe it.

It is all up to us.

PRJ

Apparently the OP because he asked what Arkansas' chances (probability) of a Sweet 16 run are, Mitch.

[AFWarrior83]

I got Arkansas losing to WVU in the elite eight. 😬

[steveaustin69]

What are we talking about here?  Basketball or Statistics? Just toss out a round % and be done with it.  Trying to apply science to Arkansas basketball is like trying to use a tape measure to gauge water mass or something.  It's freaking Hogball...

I did:

Pick 'em with Butler. Maybe a 40% shot against Purdue.

.5*.4=.2≈25%

[sickboy]

9% according to FiveThirtyEight. They're usually spot on when it comes to statistical analysis.

Look at the table here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-march-madness-predictions/?addata=espn%3Afrontpage

We have a .01% chance of winning it all, which is better than 36 teams. If you value this data and you're filling out a bracket... bet on one of these teams to win it all:

Virginia, Villanova, Duke, Kansas, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Purdue or UNC.

[mckinneyhog5]

Just stop before it gets ugly....

Fine..I'll change it to 99.9999999999 we beat Butler just so Steve can EAD.

[hawgfan4life]

I say we have a 40% chance of losing the first round and 70% chance of losing the second round.  That is 110% chance of not making it to the Sweet 16 or 60% of winning the first and 30% chance of winning the second for a 90% chance of going to the Sweet 16.  Depends on how you want to add the two games up.  I want to be positive so I am going with a 90% chance of us going to the Sweet 16.  I really like those odds.

[OkieBack]

Fine..I'll change it to 99.9999999999 we beat Butler just so Steve can EAD.

Geez what were/are you people?  A bunch of Math majors?

[steveaustin69]

Fine..I'll change it to 99.9999999999 we beat Butler just so Steve can EAD.

[OkieBack]

I say we have a 40% chance of losing the first round and 70% chance of losing the second round.  That is 110% chance of not making it to the Sweet 16 or 90% chance of going to the Sweet 16.  Depends on how you want to add the two games up.  I want to be positive so I am going with a 90% chance of us going to the Sweet 16.  I really like those odds.

We have a 58.7% chance of beating Butler if played on a Thursday, Friday it bumps up to 63.5% if we deduct wind resistance in the arena (3.6 mph) plus the hot dog factor (82.4%) and divide that by the quotient...50% chance.  Why?  Because there are 2 FREAKING TEAMS.  1/2 = 50%.  Thank you.  I learned that in 3rd grade.  Lol

[mckinneyhog5]

At least I'm not a dick, which there's a 100% chance you are.

[hogcards]

Steve is correct and just to help out Hogcards because I know he would need it, he has the Hogs chances of making it to the Sweet Sixteen as 12.5%.

I have that closer to 10.25%   

laymans=they're not going to the sweet 16.

[porkrindjimmy]

At least I'm not a dick, which there's a 100% chance you are.

Absolutely...he knows zero about what is going on. I may stun him before it is over.

PRJ