Our offense

[niels_boar]

Perusing the boards I have learned that Arkansas has only two offensive players, both of whom are selfish, another senior guard that is a TO or wild shot that is waiting to happen, and a coach that doesn't have any idea how to install an offense.  We occasionally get lucky and get hot. Otherwise, misery. Amazingly this is after we erased a 16-point deficit in a mid-week SEC road game against UGA's top-30 defense.  That defense was good enough to edge Saint Mary's in California and beat Marquette on their home floor, both legit top-40 teams.  In addition, UGA held Bama to 46 points in Athens and led for at least half the game at Rupp and at Auburn.

Our rankings in SEC-only play:

Points per possession - #4
2FG% - #2
2FGs/poss - #1
3FG% - #2
3FGs/poss - #6
3FGA/FGA - last (we aren't free shooters by any stretch of the imagination)
eFG% - #1

We are deficient in assists, ORebs, and FTs.  The assists are low because we have guys that can create on their own and have been doing it all year.  Hence, #21 in Pomeroy offensive efficiency for the season, which looks pretty darn sustainable after 19 games.  Also, we create looks with screens.  Macon gets a lot of treys from screen handoffs from the bigs, especially Thompson.  Barford and Macon don't need a lot of room.  That  room gets created by bumps.  Thompson doesn't get credit for an assist, but, if your offense is creating a look that your guy can knock down with high accuracy, that's good offense. 

The ORebs come and go.  My guess is that CMA hits the boards harder as a function of how well the opponent defensive rebounds and how worried he is about transition.  FTs are looking up.  The guys that can make them are starting to get to the line.  That's helping.

You don't put up the numbers inside the arc without running offense.  We won deuces against the UGA frontline 36 - 30 last night without Gafford scoring.  Furthermore, in a game that was under 70 possessions in 2 OTs there wasn't a lot of transition either.

The other team has players and coaches, too.  The SEC is strong on D with 6 teams in the Pomeroy defensive efficiency top 30.  Only the ACC has as many.  We have played three of them and two others in the Pomeroy top 50 in SEC play.  In fact, by SEC-only numbers Arkansas has played the second toughest SEC schedule in average opponent defensive points per possession.  The same is true for opponent offensive points per possession.  We have played a challenging SEC schedule that includes both conference leaders on the road and have managed to stay in the fight. 


As for the game last night, the coach and the bench/supporting cast aren't getting near enough credit.  Sure, Barford ignited the offense in the first half, and in OT Macon showed why he is the best clutch shooter to wear the uniform since Thurman.  (BTW that's why Macon's shot against Mizzou got way too much criticism.) They did what stars need to do to lead their teams to road wins. We should appreciate both while we have the privilege.

However, you don't erase 16-point deficits without stops.  The beef brothers Thompson and Thomas stabilized the interior defense.  Both played well at the other end as well.  Thompson played 29 minutes, handling the ball a lot, and only had 1 TO.  Thomas gave us another scoring threat on the court to take attention away from Barford.  Also, the coach waited until the last five minutes of the first half to turn up the pressure after the team had fouled sparingly in the first 15 minutes.  It was key in a late run that got the game back to manageable and got the team feeling good about itself.  Great move.

I thought the defense was better than the numbers last night after the first 10 minutes.  The team got after it after the first quarter and the rotations were the best that I had seen in conference.  There is nothing encouraging about our conference defensive numbers, but any improvement could ignite some success, especially if a win like that creates growing confidence.  It's hinting at a possible resurgence in February like last year. Granted, UGA is more big than quick.

Another underreported key to the win was the play of Hall and Jones.  Hall had what is becoming his typical solid effort at both ends.  He's looking like a more physically gifted Manny in that almost everything he does is a positive on O and he's among our best on D.  Likewise, Jones didn't go off, but he contributed a trey and a couple of FTs.  He was on the court when we made the run in the first half.  They contributed 37 quality minutes.  That was huge because up until four minutes left in regulation Macon was having arguably his worst performance of the season.  He had only played 19 minutes to that point due to foul concerns and earning bench time with costly TOs.  He had also missed some open looks that are normally money. One reason that he went off in OT is that he was probably the freshest guy on the court.  To be able to flip the switch from the doldrums to spectacular under intense pressure in a hostile gym was special, no doubt.  It also helped Macon that Beard could go 38 minutes on one leg and make big play after big play at both ends by stuffing the stat sheet.

[k.c.hawg]

Perusing the boards I have learned that Arkansas has only two offensive players, both of whom are selfish, another senior guard that is a TO or wild shot that is waiting to happen, and a coach that doesn't have any idea how to install an offense.  We occasionally get lucky and get hot. Otherwise, misery. Amazingly this is after we erased a 16-point deficit in a mid-week SEC road game against UGA's top-30 defense.  That defense was good enough to edge Saint Mary's in California and beat Marquette on their home floor, both legit top-40 teams.  In addition, UGA held Bama to 46 points in Athens and led for at least half the game at Rupp and at Auburn.

Our rankings in SEC-only play:

Points per possession - #4
2FG% - #2
2FGs/poss - #1
3FG% - #2
3FGs/poss - #6
3FGA/FGA - last (we aren't free shooters by any stretch of the imagination)
eFG% - #1

We are deficient in assists, ORebs, and FTs.  The assists are low because we have guys that can create on their own and have been doing it all year.  Hence, #21 in Pomeroy offensive efficiency for the season, which looks pretty darn sustainable after 19 games.  Also, we create looks with screens.  Macon gets a lot of treys from screen handoffs from the bigs, especially Thompson.  Barford and Macon don't need a lot of room.  That  room gets created by bumps.  Thompson doesn't get credit for an assist, but, if your offense is creating a look that your guy can knock down with high accuracy, that's good offense. 

The ORebs come and go.  My guess is that CMA hits the boards harder as a function of how well the opponent defensive rebounds and how worried he is about transition.  FTs are looking up.  The guys that can make them are starting to get to the line.  That's helping.

You don't put up the numbers inside the arc without running offense.  We won deuces against the UGA frontline 36 - 30 last night without Gafford scoring.  Furthermore, in a game that was under 70 possessions in 2 OTs there wasn't a lot of transition either.

The other team has players and coaches, too.  The SEC is strong on D with 6 teams in the Pomeroy defensive efficiency top 30.  Only the ACC has as many.  We have played three of them and two others in the Pomeroy top 50 in SEC play.  In fact, by SEC-only numbers Arkansas has played the second toughest SEC schedule in average opponent defensive points per possession.  The same is true for opponent offensive points per possession.  We have played a challenging SEC schedule that includes both conference leaders on the road and have managed to stay in the fight. 


As for the game last night, the coach and the bench/supporting cast aren't getting near enough credit.  Sure, Barford ignited the offense in the first half, and in OT Macon showed why he is the best clutch shooter to wear the uniform since Thurman.  (BTW that's why Macon's shot against Mizzou got way too much criticism.) They did what stars need to do to lead their teams to road wins. We should appreciate both while we have the privilege.

However, you don't erase 16-point deficits without stops.  The beef brothers Thompson and Thomas stabilized the interior defense.  Both played well at the other end as well.  Thompson played 29 minutes, handling the ball a lot, and only had 1 TO.  Thomas gave us another scoring threat on the court to take attention away from Barford.  Also, the coach waited until the last five minutes of the first half to turn up the pressure after the team had fouled sparingly in the first 15 minutes.  It was key in a late run that got the game back to manageable and got the team feeling good about itself.  Great move.

I thought the defense was better than the numbers last night after the first 10 minutes.  The team got after it after the first quarter and the rotations were the best that I had seen in conference.  There is nothing encouraging about our conference defensive numbers, but any improvement could ignite some success, especially if a win like that creates growing confidence.  It's hinting at a possible resurgence in February like last year. Granted, UGA is more big than quick.

Another underreported key to the win was the play of Hall and Jones.  Hall had what is becoming his typical solid effort at both ends.  He's looking like a more physically gifted Manny in that almost everything he does is a positive on O and he's among our best on D.  Likewise, Jones didn't go off, but he contributed a trey and a couple of FTs.  He was on the court when we made the run in the first half.  They contributed 37 quality minutes.  That was huge because up until four minutes left in the game Macon was having arguably his worst performance of the season.  He had only played 19 minutes to that point due to foul concerns and earning bench time with costly TOs.  He had also missed some open looks that are normally money. One reason that he went off in OT is that he was probably the freshest guy on the court.  To be able to flip the switch from the doldrums to spectacular under intense pressure in a hostile gym was special, no doubt.  It also helped Macon that Beard could go 38 minutes on one leg and make big play after big play at both ends by stuffing the stat sheet.

Thank you for providing me some intelligent, fact based, reading material on Hogville.

[Razorpigg]

Terrific post!

[Bacon_Bitz]

Post of the century

[WoodyHog]

Spot on.  Our offense is fine.  Crank up the defense (which we hopefully can get going at the right time) and we still have a chance to have a great year.  I love our fans, but a lot of them need to watch more basketball and post less.

[Razorod]

Niels, keep providing us with good info!

[rude1]

Very good post, nice job of giving out numbers based information on what is going on with the team.

[Breems]

As one of the dudes saying our offense has looked atrocious, I feel humbled.

I didn't expect those numbers at all, especially the 2FG% given Barford and Macon's rough patches lately. My eye test is deceiving me. There were several games where Barford (and everyone else) was struggling to even get a shot off in the lane, so perhaps those numbers were off-loaded to TOs.

I think the "streetball" rabble is dumb, but I did feel like Barford and Macon were forced into solo acts last night (credit to UGA's D) and a few other times during conference play. Of course, with Gafford locked up and an inconsistent bench, I'm not sure what else I should expect. Good point on the Thompson hand-offs. Undervalued.

[nwahogfan1]

Lets see how your stats hold up against teams who play really good on ball defense and against the more talented teams in our league and in the NCAAT.

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

Damn fine work. Really appreciate the effort and the insight. Hadn't even thought about the fact that Macon was able to go off because of his limited minutes prior to the run. Makes perfect sense.

[pigsooie1000]

the complaints are about the offense but you did a great job dispelling those. the defense is the big worry though, we came into the UGA game 12th in SEC in PPP margin because our defense was horrific. we did play really well vs UGA but teams who play kind of small and can drive and kick better still terrify me

[Letsroll1200]

Good job

[ShadowHawg]

Lets see how your stats hold up against teams who play really good on ball defense and against the more talented teams in our league and in the NCAAT.

Did you miss the part where Georgia is one of the best defensive teams in the country?

[razorpimp]

Perusing the boards I have learned that Arkansas has only two offensive players, both of whom are selfish, another senior guard that is a TO or wild shot that is waiting to happen, and a coach that doesn't have any idea how to install an offense.  We occasionally get lucky and get hot. Otherwise, misery. Amazingly this is after we erased a 16-point deficit in a mid-week SEC road game against UGA's top-30 defense.  That defense was good enough to edge Saint Mary's in California and beat Marquette on their home floor, both legit top-40 teams.  In addition, UGA held Bama to 46 points in Athens and led for at least half the game at Rupp and at Auburn.

Our rankings in SEC-only play:

Points per possession - #4
2FG% - #2
2FGs/poss - #1
3FG% - #2
3FGs/poss - #6
3FGA/FGA - last (we aren't free shooters by any stretch of the imagination)
eFG% - #1

We are deficient in assists, ORebs, and FTs.  The assists are low because we have guys that can create on their own and have been doing it all year.  Hence, #21 in Pomeroy offensive efficiency for the season, which looks pretty darn sustainable after 19 games.  Also, we create looks with screens.  Macon gets a lot of treys from screen handoffs from the bigs, especially Thompson.  Barford and Macon don't need a lot of room.  That  room gets created by bumps.  Thompson doesn't get credit for an assist, but, if your offense is creating a look that your guy can knock down with high accuracy, that's good offense. 

The ORebs come and go.  My guess is that CMA hits the boards harder as a function of how well the opponent defensive rebounds and how worried he is about transition.  FTs are looking up.  The guys that can make them are starting to get to the line.  That's helping.

You don't put up the numbers inside the arc without running offense.  We won deuces against the UGA frontline 36 - 30 last night without Gafford scoring.  Furthermore, in a game that was under 70 possessions in 2 OTs there wasn't a lot of transition either.

The other team has players and coaches, too.  The SEC is strong on D with 6 teams in the Pomeroy defensive efficiency top 30.  Only the ACC has as many.  We have played three of them and two others in the Pomeroy top 50 in SEC play.  In fact, by SEC-only numbers Arkansas has played the second toughest SEC schedule in average opponent defensive points per possession.  The same is true for opponent offensive points per possession.  We have played a challenging SEC schedule that includes both conference leaders on the road and have managed to stay in the fight. 


As for the game last night, the coach and the bench/supporting cast aren't getting near enough credit.  Sure, Barford ignited the offense in the first half, and in OT Macon showed why he is the best clutch shooter to wear the uniform since Thurman.  (BTW that's why Macon's shot against Mizzou got way too much criticism.) They did what stars need to do to lead their teams to road wins. We should appreciate both while we have the privilege.

However, you don't erase 16-point deficits without stops.  The beef brothers Thompson and Thomas stabilized the interior defense.  Both played well at the other end as well.  Thompson played 29 minutes, handling the ball a lot, and only had 1 TO.  Thomas gave us another scoring threat on the court to take attention away from Barford.  Also, the coach waited until the last five minutes of the first half to turn up the pressure after the team had fouled sparingly in the first 15 minutes.  It was key in a late run that got the game back to manageable and got the team feeling good about itself.  Great move.

I thought the defense was better than the numbers last night after the first 10 minutes.  The team got after it after the first quarter and the rotations were the best that I had seen in conference.  There is nothing encouraging about our conference defensive numbers, but any improvement could ignite some success, especially if a win like that creates growing confidence.  It's hinting at a possible resurgence in February like last year. Granted, UGA is more big than quick.

Another underreported key to the win was the play of Hall and Jones.  Hall had what is becoming his typical solid effort at both ends.  He's looking like a more physically gifted Manny in that almost everything he does is a positive on O and he's among our best on D.  Likewise, Jones didn't go off, but he contributed a trey and a couple of FTs.  He was on the court when we made the run in the first half.  They contributed 37 quality minutes.  That was huge because up until four minutes left in regulation Macon was having arguably his worst performance of the season.  He had only played 19 minutes to that point due to foul concerns and earning bench time with costly TOs.  He had also missed some open looks that are normally money. One reason that he went off in OT is that he was probably the freshest guy on the court.  To be able to flip the switch from the doldrums to spectacular under intense pressure in a hostile gym was special, no doubt.  It also helped Macon that Beard could go 38 minutes on one leg and make big play after big play at both ends by stuffing the stat sheet.

Yes those offensive numbers look good until you compare them to our opponents during SEC play....they don't look so hot

Scoring/gm.  ark - 77 Opp - 81.9
Fg% ark - 47.6% Opp - 46.8%
3pt % ark 38.9% Opp - 39.2%
Ft  ark 110-173. Opp 145-198
Ft%. Ark 63.6%. Opp 73.2%
Reb/gm. Ark - 33.2. Opp 36.0
Ast/gm. Ark - 12.5. Opp 15.0
TO/gm. Ark - 12.1. Opp 11.8

So yes the hogs offense is good but obviously the defense is horrible, it doesn't matter how well you shoot if you can't stop the other guys

[The_Iceman]

Our "offense" feels like a Hail Mary offense.

[hawg66]

Lets see how your stats hold up against teams who play really good on ball defense and against the more talented teams in our league and in the NCAAT.

Translation...didn't read

[hawgfan4life]

Great OP!  Nice to see how fast some twist the OP data to somehow make our offense bad because of defensive stats.  I guess that proves the best offense is a good defense to them.  By their standards, GA should be undefeated in conference and have the best offense somehow.

[FineAsSwine]

Our "offense" feels like a Hail Mary offense.

And it is very effective

[hogsanity]

Are those #'s in SEC games only or for the entire season?

[niels_boar]

Are those #'s in SEC games only or for the entire season?

SEC games only for all teams.

[niels_boar]

Yes those offensive numbers look good until you compare them to our opponents during SEC play....they don't look so hot

Scoring/gm.  ark - 77 Opp - 81.9
Fg% ark - 47.6% Opp - 46.8%
3pt % ark 38.9% Opp - 39.2%
Ft  ark 110-173. Opp 145-198
Ft%. Ark 63.6%. Opp 73.2%
Reb/gm. Ark - 33.2. Opp 36.0
Ast/gm. Ark - 12.5. Opp 15.0
TO/gm. Ark - 12.1. Opp 11.8

So yes the hogs offense is good but obviously the defense is horrible, it doesn't matter how well you shoot if you can't stop the other guys

There is nothing encouraging about our conference defensive numbers...

Who was arguing otherwise?  Our allowed points per possession is higher than any team is averaging in SEC play.  Hence, we have had to be on average the best offensive team in the SEC to stay even.  When you need to score at very high efficiencies to stay even, it makes the offense look worse than it is.  That and converting a very low percentages at the line creates a mirage of bad offense, which feeds into confirmation bias.  We have been under 1.05 ppp in only two of 8 SEC games this season.  That  happened in 8 of 21 SEC games last season when we went 14 - 7, and we were a top-30 offense last season.

We scored 1.1 ppp at MSU, which is the #17 defense nationally, and lost a close game.  We scored 1.15 ppp at UGA, the #28 defense, and barely won.  Neither MSU nor UGA is a good offensive team.  We could have won comfortably in both games with just average SEC defense.  That's why I keep saying that the team could get much better results if the defense comes around at all.

[Corkscrew Johnson]

First of all, you can express concerns about the direction of the offense without being a hater.  I grew up on 40 minutes of hell, and I really want Mike to be successful.  Nothing would make me happier.

But if you don't have concerns about the offensive execution, you either aren't watching or have your head in the sand.   This isn't the same team we saw against Vandy in the SEC tourney last year, or against UCONN or Minnesota earlier this year.  Just rewatch the last 5:30 of regulation against Georgia.  We made 2 baskets.  One was when Macon was left open after the ball got knocked loose and everyone got out of position.  The other was a highly contested, fade away 15 ft jumper by Beard, a very low percentage shot.  We were stagnant, let the shot clock run down without any movement, did a halfass pick and roll with no attempt to feed the big man rolling, and settled for one-on-one drives to the lane into the heart of their big men.  Georgia's defense is good, but first-round-of-the-tourney-at-best good.   

I'm not sure why we've regressed, and the season is a LONG way from being over.  Sometimes it's these mid-season extended road trips that brings the team together.

[jackflash]

Most college teams are about the three point shoot. Arkansas is no different

[WoodyHog]

First of all, you can express concerns about the direction of the offense without being a hater.  I grew up on 40 minutes of hell, and I really want Mike to be successful.  Nothing would make me happier.

But if you don't have concerns about the offensive execution, you either aren't watching or have your head in the sand.   This isn't the same team we saw against Vandy in the SEC tourney last year, or against UCONN or Minnesota earlier this year.  Just rewatch the last 5:30 of regulation against Georgia.  We made 2 baskets.  One was when Macon was left open after the ball got knocked loose and everyone got out of position.  The other was a highly contested, fade away 15 ft jumper by Beard, a very low percentage shot.  We were stagnant, let the shot clock run down without any movement, did a halfass pick and roll with no attempt to feed the big man rolling, and settled for one-on-one drives to the lane into the heart of their big men.  Georgia's defense is good, but first-round-of-the-tourney-at-best good.   

I'm not sure why we've regressed, and the season is a LONG way from being over.  Sometimes it's these mid-season extended road trips that brings the team together.

Actually, I am fairly certain this is the same team that we saw against UConn and Minnesota.  Same roster of players.  Same coaching staff.  Same offensive principles.  If you liked what you saw in those two games, then we shouldn't change a thing (which we haven't).  A lot of the SEC teams we have been playing are actually better than UConn and Minnesota.  They also have been playing at different paces and the end of game situations have been very different. 

[niels_boar]

First of all, you can express concerns about the direction of the offense without being a hater.  I grew up on 40 minutes of hell, and I really want Mike to be successful.  Nothing would make me happier.

But if you don't have concerns about the offensive execution, you either aren't watching or have your head in the sand.   This isn't the same team we saw against Vandy in the SEC tourney last year, or against UCONN or Minnesota earlier this year.  Just rewatch the last 5:30 of regulation against Georgia.  We made 2 baskets.  One was when Macon was left open after the ball got knocked loose and everyone got out of position.  The other was a highly contested, fade away 15 ft jumper by Beard, a very low percentage shot.  We were stagnant, let the shot clock run down without any movement, did a halfass pick and roll with no attempt to feed the big man rolling, and settled for one-on-one drives to the lane into the heart of their big men.  Georgia's defense is good, but first-round-of-the-tourney-at-best good.   

I'm not sure why we've regressed, and the season is a LONG way from being over.  Sometimes it's these mid-season extended road trips that brings the team together.

No, UGA's defense is very good.  Their defense makes them a potential NCAAT team, but their offense may limit them to the first-round.  Their offense is ranked lower than our defense. 

Good offensive teams don't execute well every possession and will even look lousy for entire games.  Offense comes and goes. That doesn't make it an overriding concern.

One was when Macon was left open after the ball got knocked loose and everyone got out of position. 

That's a complete load of crap.  Go watch the replay.  Beard penetrated to the FT line.  Macon's man got caught looking inside.  Macon made a great cut to the corner.  Beard delivered the ball. Clutch Macon knocked down the open jumper.  It was one of the many big plays that Beard contributed to down the stretch.

[mhuff]

Very good post, nice job of giving out numbers based information on what is going on with the team.

[hawgfan4life]

First of all, you can express concerns about the direction of the offense without being a hater.  I grew up on 40 minutes of hell, and I really want Mike to be successful.  Nothing would make me happier.

But if you don't have concerns about the offensive execution, you either aren't watching or have your head in the sand.   This isn't the same team we saw against Vandy in the SEC tourney last year, or against UCONN or Minnesota earlier this year.  Just rewatch the last 5:30 of regulation against Georgia.  We made 2 baskets.  One was when Macon was left open after the ball got knocked loose and everyone got out of position.  The other was a highly contested, fade away 15 ft jumper by Beard, a very low percentage shot.  We were stagnant, let the shot clock run down without any movement, did a halfass pick and roll with no attempt to feed the big man rolling, and settled for one-on-one drives to the lane into the heart of their big men.  Georgia's defense is good, but first-round-of-the-tourney-at-best good.   

I'm not sure why we've regressed, and the season is a LONG way from being over.  Sometimes it's these mid-season extended road trips that brings the team together.

We regressed when Barford, Macon, Beard, and Jones all went into an offensive funk at the same time and we lost virtually ALL offensive mojo.  We have slowly been climbing out of that and are on the upswing.  When AR shoots well, we are tough to beat and can beat anyone.  When we shoot poorly, we can lose to anyone and it is painful to watch. The main difference then  and now was playing without fear and with confidence.  We lost it for a bit and are getting it back.  As we do, the play will become more crisp and free again.

Miss State started like gang busters and fizzled.  A$M does this annually.  Teams have cycles of hot and cold play.  When you are the most talented, you still win.  When you are equally talented, you lose.  AR isn't more talented than most SEC rosters.

[Hogtropolis™]

Love your posts neils. Keep em coming.

[niels_boar]

In the final 35 minutes of the UGA game, including the OTs, Arkansas scored 1.24 points per possession (actual, not estimated) on the road against a good defensive team.  We poured in 1.25 ppp in the final 25 minutes of regulation.  If you think that portion of the game contained an unusual amount of bad offense, you are just watching games with a hypercritical eye.

UGA defense in the SEC (allowed ppp):
kentucky   1.01
mississippi   0.89
alabama   0.68
missouri   1.08
south car.   0.95
LSU     1.03
auburn   1.17
arkansas   1.15

We were the first SEC team to do better than 1.0 ppp in Athens for the game after scoring only 13 points in the first 15 minutes.

[Letsroll1200]

In the final 35 minutes of the UGA game, including the OTs, Arkansas scored 1.24 points per possession (actual, not estimated) on the road against a good defensive team.  We poured in 1.25 ppp in the final 25 minutes of regulation.  If you think that portion of the game contained an unusual amount of bad offense, you are just watching games with a hypercritical eye.

UGA defense in the SEC (allowed ppp):
kentucky   1.01
mississippi   0.89
alabama   0.68
missouri   1.08
south car.   0.95
LSU     1.03
auburn   1.17
arkansas   1.15

We were the first SEC team to do better than 1.0 ppp in Athens for the game after scoring only 13 points in the first 15 minutes.

Get out of here with this data..... Seriously good job