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The SEC is so weird

Started by niels_boar, January 18, 2018, 01:54:30 pm

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niels_boar

1.  Why has the pace slowed to a crawl in conference games?  In nonconference 11 SEC teams averaged over 70 possessions per game.  It's down to 1 (Auburn) in SEC games.  All conferences slow a little on average as the creampuffs come off the schedule, but nothing this dramatic is happening in the Big 12 or ACC, for instance.

2.  Three of the teams that played the most challenging nonconference schedules and defended well are currently at the bottom of the SEC in allowed points per possession.  Tennessee, Arkansas, and A&M are all surrendering over 1.1 ppp, far worse than in nonconference for all those teams.  A&M looked like a defensive juggernaut earlier in the season.  Yeah, they haven't had their full lineup, but their defensive numbers aren't improving as players have returned, though their offense is coming back.

3.  Ole Miss and LSU didn't play very challenging nonconference schedules, especially Ole Miss.  Neither defended anybody in November and December.  LSU looked like an offensive juggernaut, but I figured their offense would fall off dramatically in SEC play.  It has.  Had we defended them decently, they would be averaging under 1 ppp.  However, they are holding SEC opponents under 1 ppp.  WTH?  Ole Miss isn't as good on D, but they suddenly look like a decent defensive team in SEC play.  UGA is also allowing fewer points per possession in SEC play than in nonconference despite the significant uptick in competition.

4.  UK is pretty fortunate to be 4-2.  They have a negative point differential.



As for Arkansas, the offense should be better, but the defense is making it look a lot worse than it is in most games, Mizzou being the exception.  Arkansas is fourth in SEC play in eFG% despite cold shooting from multiple trey sources.  We are even in the top half of the SEC in offensive rebounding.  However, turnovers have reached the point where they are becoming a weakness instead of a strength, which is unbelievable for this team. 

Moreover, FTs are just killing us.  Being near the bottom of the SEC in FTs per possession robs us of the ability to sustain runs and put pressure on opponents.  We were down double-digits at times to UF when a decent FT percentage would have meant a two-possession game.  That hurts the defense because players will make shots when their team is up by 12 that they will miss when the game is tight.  Likewise, it's almost impossible to sustain a run if getting to the line is a stop.  We're really missing Hannahs and Kingsley in that regard to smooth out the O when we hit rough spots, and Barford and Macon aren't getting to the line near as often as last year either.

The defense has been terrible, of course.  Guess the one area in which Arkansas is in the top-half of the SEC on D?  Rebounding. 

Past doesn't seem to be predicting much about the future in the SEC this season.  That's a good thing for Arkansas right now.  The schedule has some opportunities in the next few weeks if Arkansas can get back to the team they were in November.  The season is hardly lost.  Heck, we would get a bid if the season ended today.  However, the margin for error has been whittled down.
The jawbone of an ass is just as dangerous a weapon today as in Sampson's time.

PonderinHog

Macon had zero FTA's last night, IIRC.

 

hogsanity

Quote from: niels_boar on January 18, 2018, 01:54:30 pm
1.  Why has the pace slowed to a crawl in conference games? 


2 things come to mind. 1, too many teams in the sec play defense with their hands, and I am not just talking about hand checks. They slap and reach and grab and swat at the ball CONSTANTLY. Not only does this draw fouls it also allows them to get beat off of the dribble, which leads to fouls from guys trying to help. 2. The shot blockers swat down too much, and get lots of fouls on balls they block, but the follow through hammers the shooter.

Watch other leagues. Many team play tough man, but they are not always so handsy grabby slap happy.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Wild Bill Hog


niels_boar

Quote from: hogsanity on January 18, 2018, 02:12:24 pm
2 things come to mind. 1, too many teams in the sec play defense with their hands, and I am not just talking about hand checks. They slap and reach and grab and swat at the ball CONSTANTLY. Not only does this draw fouls it also allows them to get beat off of the dribble, which leads to fouls from guys trying to help. 2. The shot blockers swat down too much, and get lots of fouls on balls they block, but the follow through hammers the shooter.

Watch other leagues. Many team play tough man, but they are not always so handsy grabby slap happy.

Fouls can have opposite effects on number of possessions.  If they result in FTAs, that ends the possession, which can actually increase the number of possessions.  However, fouls that don't result in FTAs can restart possessions.  I could be wrong, but my inclination is to believe that physical defense, especially in the interior,  may be a part of it but for a different reason.  The cause and effect may be that teams are forced to run more shot clock to get a look.  It results in grinder games without flow. 

I believe the style of officiating benefits some teams to the detriment of others, though. For instance,

Difference in possessions per FTA from nonconference to conference (+ means shooting more FTs in SEC play):

Ark  -0.2
Ala   -0.8
Aub  0.6
UGA -0.7
UF    -0.3
UK    0.8 (shocking, I know)
LSU  -1.1
OM    -0.01
MS     0.3
Mizz  -0.2
USC   1.0 (really helps them)
UT      0.6
A&M   -0.1
Vandy -0.5

Auburn didn't play a difficult NCSOS.  Why are they getting to the line more often in SEC play?  As I noted in a previous post, the SEC seems to reward teams that are skill challenged like UK, Miss State, and USC. Teams that try to make shots like UF, LSU, Mizzou, and Arkansas are punished.  However, I am surprised that UGA is in the negative.
The jawbone of an ass is just as dangerous a weapon today as in Sampson's time.

IronHog

SEC basketball officiating is trash and makes conference games unwatchable

Iron sharpens iron, So one man sharpens another.

niels_boar

The whole point of the recent rule changes by the NCAA was to increase possessions. It never really dawned on the NCAA that all they had to do was to look at the early 90's, which was a peak for possessions in college basketball, and undo what they had done in the interim. 

It's interesting to compare the conference-only stats between the Big 12, ACC, and SEC this season.  The Big 12 averages 3 more possessions per game for each team than the SEC.  The offensive numbers are better for the Big 12 across the board.  FG percentages are about 3% higher on average, and OReb% is about 2% higher.  However, TOs and steals are higher in the Big 12 than the SEC, while FTAs are less.  Blocks are much rarer in the Big 12.  The ACC stands between the SEC and ACC in most categories, but they call even fewer fouls in the ACC than the Big 12.

The blocks, fouls, and steals stats are quite startling. 

Average possessions per block:
SEC - 15.6
Big 12 - 18.2
ACC - 21.2

Average possessions per foul:
SEC - 3.6
Big 12 - 3.9
ACC - 4.3

Average possessions per steal:
SEC - 12.7
Big 12 - 11.4
ACC - 11.0

Average possessions per team:
SEC - 68
Big 12 - 71
ACC - 69

The ACC and Big 12 get a lot more steals without fouling.  It's difficult to determine how much of the differences are due to coaching systems, skill level, and personnel.  I think some of it has to be officiating biases.  If the ACC and Big 12 have more skill and are less grabby on D, why do they turn it over more?  It's plausible that the officiating in the ACC and Big 12 is less ticky tack on the perimeter and more strict in the paint.
The jawbone of an ass is just as dangerous a weapon today as in Sampson's time.

IronHog

Quote from: niels_boar on January 18, 2018, 07:49:53 pm
The whole point of the recent rule changes by the NCAA was to increase possessions. It never really dawned on the NCAA that all they had to do was to look at the early 90's, which was a peak for possessions in college basketball, and undo what they had done in the interim. 

It's interesting to compare the conference-only stats between the Big 12, ACC, and SEC this season.  The Big 12 averages 3 more possessions per game for each team than the SEC.  The offensive numbers are better for the Big 12 across the board.  FG percentages are about 3% higher on average, and OReb% is about 2% higher.  However, TOs and steals are higher in the Big 12 than the SEC, while FTAs are less.  Blocks are much rarer in the Big 12.  The ACC stands between the SEC and ACC in most categories, but they call even fewer fouls in the ACC than the Big 12.

The blocks, fouls, and steals stats are quite startling. 

Average possessions per block:
SEC - 15.6
Big 12 - 18.2
ACC - 21.2

Average possessions per foul:
SEC - 3.6
Big 12 - 3.9
ACC - 4.3

Average possessions per steal:
SEC - 12.7
Big 12 - 11.4
ACC - 11.0

Average possessions per team:
SEC - 68
Big 12 - 71
ACC - 69

The ACC and Big 12 get a lot more steals without fouling.  It's difficult to determine how much of the differences are due to coaching systems, skill level, and personnel.  I think some of it has to be officiating biases.  If the ACC and Big 12 have more skill and are less grabby on D, why do they turn it over more?  It's plausible that the officiating in the ACC and Big 12 is less ticky tack on the perimeter and more strict in the paint.



I'd watch college B.B. again if they'd do away with the freaking 90's rules changes.


Took the best sport and killed it so Duke could stay relevant
Iron sharpens iron, So one man sharpens another.

Hoggish1

Quote from: hogsanity on January 18, 2018, 02:12:24 pm
2 things come to mind. 1, too many teams in the sec play defense with their hands, and I am not just talking about hand checks.


So, what are we playing defense with?

hogsanity

Quote from: niels_boar on January 18, 2018, 07:49:53 pm

The ACC and Big 12 get a lot more steals without fouling.  It's difficult to determine how much of the differences are due to coaching systems, skill level, and personnel.  I think some of it has to be officiating biases.  If the ACC and Big 12 have more skill and are less grabby on D, why do they turn it over more?  It's plausible that the officiating in the ACC and Big 12 is less ticky tack on the perimeter and more strict in the paint.


Nice research. I might buy the officiating bias IF officials working the ACC ONLY worked ACC games. Same for Big12 and SEC.

It is just as plausible that teams in the other league play less handsy defense or do not get beat on the dribble as much ( so not as many reach in or holding fouls on the peremiter ).
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

niels_boar

Quote from: hogsanity on January 19, 2018, 09:07:59 am
Nice research. I might buy the officiating bias IF officials working the ACC ONLY worked ACC games. Same for Big12 and SEC.

It is just as plausible that teams in the other league play less handsy defense or do not get beat on the dribble as much ( so not as many reach in or holding fouls on the peremiter ).

I'm pretty sure refs are getting instruction from someone.  I always find it baffling that the refs seems to change what is a foul at halftime.  They did it in the UNC NCAAT game with Qualls and Portis.  National reporters commented on how the refs ruined an entertaining game after half.  It happens all the time that the calls get more ticky tack after half.  I think it is preposterous to take the position that what is a foul is some ground truth and that the number of fouls is completely determined by the players.  There wouldn't be a home-away difference if that were the case.

You don't get more steals playing passive defense.  You just don't.  You have to take more risks in the passing lanes and go for deflections. That requires using your hands.  West Virginia is lot more physical than we are, but their opponents are shooting FTAs at the exact same rate as ours are in conference.  Possessions per forced TO: W Va - 4.9  Ark - 6.8.  If Arkansas trapped that diligently in a game, our roster would foul out by half on the road in the SEC.
The jawbone of an ass is just as dangerous a weapon today as in Sampson's time.

hogsanity

Quote from: niels_boar on January 19, 2018, 02:11:31 pm
I'm pretty sure refs are getting instruction from someone.  I always find it baffling that the refs seems to change what is a foul at halftime.  They did it in the UNC NCAAT game with Qualls and Portis.  National reporters commented on how the refs ruined an entertaining game after half.  It happens all the time that the calls get more ticky tack after half.  I think it is preposterous to take the position that what is a foul is some ground truth and that the number of fouls is completely determined by the players.  There wouldn't be a home-away difference if that were the case.

You don't get more steals playing passive defense.  You just don't.  You have to take more risks in the passing lanes and go for deflections. That requires using your hands.  West Virginia is lot more physical than we are, but their opponents are shooting FTAs at the exact same rate as ours are in conference.  Possessions per forced TO: W Va - 4.9  Ark - 6.8.  If Arkansas trapped that diligently in a game, our roster would foul out by half on the road in the SEC.

To what end would it benefit the SEC to have more fouls and fewer possessions per game? Why would they instruct refs to call it tight compared to the ACC and other leagues? I'd come much closer to believing they would instruct refs to be loser, let more stuff go to try to improve game flow.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Kenny Dowell Loggains

Who the hell is Robert Shields?

 

IronHog

Quote from: hogsanity on January 19, 2018, 02:29:34 pm
To what end would it benefit the SEC to have more fouls and fewer possessions per game? Why would they instruct refs to call it tight compared to the ACC and other leagues? I'd come much closer to believing they would instruct refs to be loser, let more stuff go to try to improve game flow.


You'd think but their officiating is trash.  Just absolute unwatchable trash.


NCAA tournament is much better when officials let them play.....and the "bad" SEC usually performs well.
Iron sharpens iron, So one man sharpens another.

ParkerSchnabel

Quote from: IronHog on January 18, 2018, 06:14:11 pm
SEC basketball officiating is trash and makes conference games unwatchable

EXACTLY. SEC officials are the worst. Biased Biased Biased as to style of play every single game.

ParkerSchnabel

Quote from: IronHog on January 19, 2018, 03:27:55 pm

You'd think but their officiating is trash.  Just absolute unwatchable trash.


NCAA tournament is much better when officials let them play.....and the "bad" SEC usually performs well.

Right ON !!! RIGHT FREAKING ON MAN.

ParkerSchnabel

Quote from: gguillo on January 19, 2018, 02:31:06 pm
Who the hell is Robert Shields?

I"m not sure. Is he supposed to be an SEC official ? I don't recall hearing the name.

niels_boar

Added AAC , which is in the same officiating consortium with the SEC: 

Average possessions per block:
SEC - 15.6
Big 12 - 18.2
AAC - 20.4
ACC - 21.2


Average possessions per foul:
SEC - 3.6
Big 12 - 3.9
AAC - 4.07
ACC - 4.3

Average possessions per steal:
SEC - 12.7
Big 12 - 11.4
AAC - 11.1
ACC - 11.0


Average possessions per team:
AAC - 66.5
SEC - 68
ACC - 69
Big 12 - 71


The AAC could watch the oaks grow to replace the hardwood during their games.  The paces don't align with either style or fouls, indicating that it is probably about the coaches.  The fouls correlate with blocks, which makes some sense, but are inversely correlated with steals, which doesn't make any sense to me.  The odd thing is that nationally for every NCAA team the correlation of opponent FT/FGA with team block percentage is much weaker than the correlation of opponent FT/FGA with team steal percentage.  In other words, blocks are almost no predictor of opponent FTs, but steals are.  That would mean that high foul rate should more likely align with high steal rate than blocks, but they do the opposite.  I'm confused, too.
The jawbone of an ass is just as dangerous a weapon today as in Sampson's time.