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NL West Prediction Thread

Started by Oklahawg, March 14, 2008, 05:12:11 pm

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Oklahawg

I'm churning these out before heading out of town for a week (no computer access!). Lots of interesting teams out west this year, and here's my take.

1. Rockies. I am hopelessly smitten with what Clint Hurdle is doing in Denver. He has made them a team. Quietly, this is a solid pitching staff that gets wonderful defensive support. Helton is fading, but the slack has been more than picked up by Hawpe, Atkins and Holliday. Tulowitzki is a top-tier SS on the rise. Torrealba is more valuable managing the pitching staff (superbly, by the way) but is not a slouch with the stick.

The real surprise here is the pitching staff, where a top rotation is taking shape. Francis anchors the staff for now, but I look for Jimenez or Morales to eventually subplant him. Greg Reynolds is a major prospect who tops out at a #3 simply because of the guys in front of him. Reynolds can help this summer, if healthy.

The Rockies bost a deep bullpen anchored by unsung closer, Manny Corpas. Corpas simply throws strikes, impressing me when I saw him throw live twice this summer, tossing every batter a first-pitch strike and topping 80 percent in strikes. Corpas mirrors most of the roster: they have their best ball in front of them.

2. Dodgers. The injuries at 3B had me retyping team names! This is possibly the deepest franchise in terms of useful players. They continue to produce top-flight players in their minor league system and added Japanese import Kuroda to the rotation.

The Dodgers have too many OF, if that is possible, and for some reason Joe Torre like Juan Pierre and his fading skill set over up-and-comer Andre Ethier. I think Ethier wins the day eventually as Pierre gets traded for a MIF. Jones, Kemp, Ethier and Pierre may be the finest OF in the NL and do everything well.

The Dodgers have the finest offensive catcher in the game, Russell Martin, and he is joined around the infield by solid talent.

The pitching staff is deep and looks to get better. Billingsley is a top-flight young pitcher and the best pitcher in the system, Clayton Kershaw, won't stay in the minors much longer. These two join Derek Lowe as a studly top 3.

Saito is a solid endgame anchor and the team has a top set-up man in Jonathan Broxton.

3. Diamondbacks. This won't be a popular choice. I almost put the Padres in front of them. Brandon Webb anchors a soft rotation that others point to as a big strength. Randy Johnson will eventually wear out and collapse, and it won't be gradual. Dan Haren's secondary numbers have faded even though he was a hyped off-season acquisition. Doug Davis and Micah Owings don't excite me in the remainder of the rotation.

The end of the bullpen is gifted and deep, but untested. Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon and Tony Pena are joined by ex-Stro Chad Qualls in the short game but there is a painful lack of experience closing. If one steps up and gives the DBacks 45 saves and a sub-3.00 ERA then these guys will be at the front of the pack come playoff time.

Offensively there are fewer questions. Loads of youthful guys with loads of talent. Can all take a step forward, or will it take one more year for this to become a formidable lineup from 1 to 8?

4. Padres. This is a team that I like but there are more question marks than with the teams in front of them. Peavy, Young and Maddux are a good front three in the rotation but they need to find another arm. Its too naive to toss out Mark Prior's name but he's there in the shadows.

Trevor Hoffman was closer for the NY Highlanders in 1894, wasn't he? When he wears out Heath Bell is there to take over. Bell is a top-flight set-up guy and leads a talented group in the bullpen.

Jim Edmonds is another of those fast-fading stars. He is not the Jim Edmonds we all remember from just a few years ago. He plugs a hole (like Tad Iguchi) until a prospect can fill in. If either/both surprise then this team surges up the win column.

Adrian Gonzalez is a star, and Chase Headley and Kevin Koumanoff can be. That's not enough in this division.

5. Giants. Here is a team that totally screwed up. It kept going after a playoff spot and never nurtured its farm system. Cain and Lincicum are really solid at #1-2 in the rotation. They struggle to get anyone excited past that. Barry Zito? I think he is a horribly overpriced, overrated pitcher. He's certainly not a #1, even if that's where the Giants slot him.

Brian Wilson inherits the closer's role by default. In his defense, he was seen a year ago as a closer-to-be, but he's green as you can be in that role. Tyler Walker is his primary competition and TW is the poster child for the concept that, well, you can finish games but you don't deserve the label "closer".

The offense has tons of question marks. Unfortunately, the biggest one for Giant fans is, "how many years until Angel Villanonia will be in the bigs?" The only "plus" offensive player I see if Bengie Molina at catcher. Gulp. This bunch will struggle to score runs, almost as badly as the pitching staff will struggle to keep them from scoring.

The Giants are the worst of the NL. By some measure. They will rival the Orioles as the worst team in baseball. At least Baltimore has some vision with the minor leaguers. Not so much with SF.
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BradyHolzhauer

NL WEST:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres
5. San Francisco Giants

 

bellavistamike

Tough division.

Dodgers may have the talent to take the 'Backs and Rockies. And the Padres may also be real good again.

I'll say Dodgers. The Rockies over came their park last year, and while I like 'em, I think that is a lot to over come again. I don't think the 'Backs can score enough runs. I'll say San Diego gives LA a run for the title.

spudhog

Padres

If Headley works himself into the lineup, they can be stout.

ErieHog

Possibly the best division in all of baseball.

I really like 4 teams out West, in terms of being in playoff contention:


The Dodgers will be helped by having a truly veteran manager rather than Grady Little, and the return of Jason Schmitt will help stabilize the back end of that rotation.   If they can score enough runs, they can contend.   Look for them to possibly move to acquire Nick Johnson from the Nationals, for a middle reliever in return.

The Padres are the known quantity, with agueably the best starter in the division in Peavy leading their rotation.   The carnivorous ballpark in San Diego is a huge edge for a pitching staff, and the focus on developing line-drive hitters to take advantage of the gaps will mean that San Diego manufactures a fair number of runs, while NL power teams watch their offenses curl up and die at PETCO. The Padres get out to a lead, and slowly fade over the summer, still contending for the playoffs until the last week.

The Diamondbacks need some sort of offensive production to match a staff that looks extremely formidable; Webb is fantastic, and Harren should be even better, having played on mostly sub-par Oakland teams that really struggled defensively during his starts.  He goes from the better offensive league to the inferior league, and that should translate into even better numbers for an already promising career.   The Diamondbacks remain in the conversation to the last week of the season, holding on to the division title.

The Rockies are a year or two ahead of schedule, and have done brilliantly at retaining some of their younger hitters, while avoiding paying out the nose for them, by extending their contracts for middling money just before they emerge full-bore.   The core should make Coors Field a difficult place to play,  and the Rockies are a deeper staff than they are generally given credit for;  look for the Rockies to contend, but fall short due to a lack of stability on the very back of the rotation, especially compared to other NLW squads.   Probable Wild Card winner.

And lastly....

The San Fransisco Giants will be old, horrible, will display no depth, and will be effectively a AAA squad, taking tryouts for the 2010-2011 season.

No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

selfexplanatory

Rockies
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
This year's nominee for the Coopy award.
Quote from: majp51 on June 02, 2010, 03:27:42 pm
Err, now I know it's easy to bash Shiloh Christian, but I'm pretty there aren't that many high schools in Arkansas that have a player picked in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft.
Or have you forgotten where Damian Williams played school?

kimjongsqUeAl

Diamondbacks
Padres
Dodgers
Rockies
...
...
Giants
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- Thomas Jefferson

My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge: because thou hast rejected knowledge...
- God

CORZRBACKFAN

March 22, 2008, 04:57:35 pm #7 Last Edit: March 27, 2008, 09:51:12 pm by CORZRBACKFAN
I say that 88 wins the West because the division is so deep, and all teams except SF will be within five games of each other down the stretch.

COLORADO
Dodgers
DBacks (tie)
Padres (tie)
Giants

The Rockies were not a fluke. They had a terrible start, and were 11 games under .500 at one point. They countered that with the one of the best records in MLB after the all-star break (in baseball's most competitive division), and a magical September run guided by guts and desire. They're even deeper this year. The speed and timely hitting of Matsui will be replaced by top notch D and more power from Jayson Nix. The rest of the lineup is exactly the same, and the bench players will bring a lot to the table as well. The bullpen is ridiculous. How many teams have a three-time all star as one of their setup men? Manny Corpas is a very strong closer. LaTroy Hawkins is replaced by Luis Vizcaino. Starting pitching is the only major question. Francis has the potential to win 20, and Cook and Jimenez both have potential to win 15 with single digit losses. The 4 and 5 get questionable. Morales is headed to AAA, Kip Wells and Josh Towers don't exactly inspire fear, and Mark Redman will likely be the best of the three. It's irrelevant. The Rox arguably have the top offense in the National League AND the top defense. They did things defensively that teams don't do for decades-people forget that.

The Dodgers have a better than average offense, solid starters, and a coach with a proven track record in NY. The key being "in NY." He was given a payroll the size of three small market MLB franchises, and had an all-star team playing everyday. He was mediocre at best before coming to the Bronx, and he has won nothing in 7 years with those high NY payrolls. I think the egos did him in more than his coaching abilities, but I'm still interested to see how he does without the Boss's open checkbook. He's still a very good coach, and he guides LA back toward the playoffs. I give them the edge over AZ and SD due to having a solid pitching staff, but also a considerably better offense than either of those teams.

The DBacks are the popular favorite, but their offense is a joke. Dead last in the NL, and they traded a lights-out closer! So what happens when their best in the game starters throw 8 1/3 and they have no go-to guy? They give up runs...runs they can't score back. Good luck when playing Colorado in that situation-the Rox have two bonafide closers.

San Diego. Nobody is talking about San Diego. They have a pitching staff that will be right up there with Arizona, but their offense is just as bad as Arizona's. Couple that with playing 81 in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in MLB, and they've got a tough road to plow. They have the most successful closer of all-time, but will they be able to get him the ball that often?

As for the Giants, will anyone even notice they're still in the NL with Bonds gone? They easily could lose 100 playing in a division like this. You mess with the bulls, you get the horns!



-"One has to learn havin' fun is just smilin' through
those changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes. "

-Jimmy Buffett

UhOhioHog

Dodgers
Padres
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Queers