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  • #6501 by hollywood hog on 25 Aug 2014
  • I plan to turn a profit with or without Jeff, although he makes things easier.

    You are one of the few other guys I've noticed that wins.  Will, you took a spanking last year if I remember correctly.  Your winning percentage is ok, but you overplay games and end up betting 10 bucks a game after a bad loss.  Ball State was a ridiculous bad beat for ya last year, but you had way too much of your bankroll riding on one game.   
  • #6502 by WILL CLINTON on 25 Aug 2014
  • I took my lumps last year, no doubt. It's obvious what was my problem was. I played reckless and it showed. Still, if someone has been following me $ for $ for 3 years, they've still got $5400 after my worst year in 15 years.

    I'm not trying to make this a me vs Jeff thing either. Jeff has done very well, very very well since he's been contributing. But to say that this thread is dead money is inaccurate.

    Now on to the first week. I still want to see how some coaches in their first year have done over the break before I put money on them, but I have some leans to see if I have a good feel for where they are. I do have 3 already for the up coming weekend.

    Ole Miss -10 v Boise....1*
    Penn St +1....1*
    Bowling Green -8....1*


    2014-2015 season
    0-0 (%) $0 profit 0% ROI Bankroll $2000
  • #6503 by WILL CLINTON on 25 Aug 2014
  • I'm also thinking about Wash St and Baylor, maybe Florida.

    Jeff's first pick of the season is SC -10. I may tail him on this one, but not sure  yet. Being very cautious this season.
  • #6504 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 26 Aug 2014
  • Well dunno how it happened guys, but thanks for the help!
  • #6505 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 26 Aug 2014
  • As Will said. So far S Carolina -10 / 2 units
  • #6506 by McKdaddy on 26 Aug 2014
  • As Will said. So far S Carolina -10 / 2 units

    Welcome back.
  • #6507 by Hawgndaaz on 26 Aug 2014
  • As Will said. So far S Carolina -10 / 2 units

    That one has been at -11 for a few days now on my line
  • #6508 by McKdaddy on 26 Aug 2014
  • That one has been at -11 for a few days now on my line

    -10 on BetUS & sportsbook if you can grab it in time....keeps moving between 10 & 10.5
  • #6509 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 26 Aug 2014
  • #6510 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 26 Aug 2014
  • That one has been at -11 for a few days now on my line

    Dazz that's the line you are getting brother :)
  • #6511 by Spikes on 26 Aug 2014
  • Well dunno how it happened guys, but thanks for the help!


    Glad you're back Jeff... 
  • #6512 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 26 Aug 2014

  • Glad you're back Jeff... 

    Thanks Spikes!
  • #6513 by DamonBoost on 26 Aug 2014
  • Yay!! Jeff is back!!
  • #6514 by Hawgndaaz on 27 Aug 2014
  • Jeff, I was wrong about the bama line. Im seeing it at -27 now. That's a lot of points but still a good number IMO. I think it's something like 21-3 at half and then they blow it open in the second.

    Few more I'm interested in:

    NC State -21.5 (Ga Southern is practically a high school team)
    Ole Miss -11

    I'll be in vegas all weekend so i'll probably be at a sportsbook Saturday :)
  • #6515 by oldman1015 on 27 Aug 2014
  • Well dunno how it happened guys, but thanks for the help!
    had to be my free jeff post. now lets make some money.
  • #6516 by The Hogfather on 27 Aug 2014
  • Jeff, I was wrong about the bama line. Im seeing it at -27 now. That's a lot of points but still a good number IMO. I think it's something like 21-3 at half and then they blow it open in the second.

    Few more I'm interested in:

    NC State -21.5 (Ga Southern is practically a high school team)
    Ole Miss -11

    I'll be in vegas all weekend so i'll probably be at a sportsbook Saturday :)


    I really think Ole Miss will absolutely kill Boise if they are ready.  I wouldn't want to bet them above 10, though.
  • #6517 by The Hogfather on 27 Aug 2014
  • My big one for this weekend:  Tennersee -6

    They'll beat Utah State by double digits, imo.

    Tennersee is young, but talented.  As long as the young/new guys don't play like it is the 1st time they've ever played football before, I think they'll be too much for Utah State.  Utah State does return Chuckie Keeton, but I think his talents will be mitigated by Tennersee's defensive line.
  • #6518 by DadVader1 on 27 Aug 2014
  • Glad to see we're getting the band back together and especially glad to see that we got Jeff back in time for opening weekend!  I'm waiting on a few more rating systems to build my wish list for the week.  I put together a list of some of the best trends from last year and plan on playing them in small amounts, until I can build enough data for this season.  This will be the first year that I actually have good data from the previous year, so I'll be curious to see whether some of the super-trends perform well from season to season.
  • #6519 by yraciv on 27 Aug 2014
  • Welcome back Jeff. Was going to be strange not having you around this year.  Just stick to this forum, and hopefully you'll be able to stick around.
  • #6520 by McKdaddy on 27 Aug 2014
  • Welcome back Jeff. Was going to be strange not having you around this year.  Just stick to this forum, and hopefully you'll be able to stick around.

    True, ha.
  • #6521 by Tai_Mai_Shu on 27 Aug 2014
  • My big one for this weekend:  Tennersee -6

    They'll beat Utah State by double digits, imo.

    Tennersee is young, but talented.  As long as the young/new guys don't play like it is the 1st time they've ever played football before, I think they'll be too much for Utah State.  Utah State does return Chuckie Keeton, but I think his talents will be mitigated by Tennersee's defensive line.

    Who is the QB for Tenner?  That is what worries me a little.
  • #6522 by The Hogfather on 27 Aug 2014
  • #6523 by OnYourToes on 27 Aug 2014

  • Ole Miss -10 v Boise....1*
    Penn St +1....1*
    Bowling Green -8....1*


    2014-2015 season
    0-0 (%) $0 profit 0% ROI Bankroll $2000

    The first 2 were my initial leans as well.

    I got Baylor at -33, I think that's pretty steep, may not bite
    Tenner I see at -6, may be thinking that one too.
    Another temptation is Navy +16.5 at home vs Ohio St. No Braxton Miller and I want to see how they rebound, could be an ugly win for Ohio St.
    Last one, Southern Miss +30.5 at Miss St.  Southern Miss is a solid team and I am not yet ready to crown the bulldogs the King of their state.  Seems like a lot of points.

    Haven't placed anything, don't usually until Thursday these are just my leans

  • #6524 by scottagee on 27 Aug 2014
  • I gave 5.5 early last week. I think both Utah St and Wisconsin will be worse this year than last.

    My big one for this weekend:  Tennersee -6

    They'll beat Utah State by double digits, imo.

    Tennersee is young, but talented.  As long as the young/new guys don't play like it is the 1st time they've ever played football before, I think they'll be too much for Utah State.  Utah State does return Chuckie Keeton, but I think his talents will be mitigated by Tennersee's defensive line.
  • #6525 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 28 Aug 2014
  • #6526 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 28 Aug 2014
  • Jeff, I was wrong about the bama line. Im seeing it at -27 now. That's a lot of points but still a good number IMO. I think it's something like 21-3 at half and then they blow it open in the second.

    Few more I'm interested in:

    NC State -21.5 (Ga Southern is practically a high school team)
    Ole Miss -11

    I'll be in vegas all weekend so i'll probably be at a sportsbook Saturday :)



    Eh I dunno what I'm gonna do with that.
  • #6527 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 28 Aug 2014
  • had to be my free jeff post. now lets make some money.

    lol could have been. Thanks!
  • #6528 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 28 Aug 2014
  • Welcome back Jeff. Was going to be strange not having you around this year.  Just stick to this forum, and hopefully you'll be able to stick around.

    Thanks man.
  • #6529 by McKdaddy on 28 Aug 2014
  • I think Bama's offense will struggle. They have 2 qb's, meaning they don't have 1 qb. Coker has the talent, but from what the local Bama media is reporting he doesn't have the play book absorbed as well as Simms. Both will play, with Sims getting the start. WV's defense is terrible, so Bama will put up points and their RB's should run rough-shod over WV. But the Bama offense hasn't looked good since Kiffin stepped on campus. Its spring game exhibited ineptitude, confusion, lack of cohesion on offense.

    My line is at 27. I'm not convinced Bama covers that. Just a hunch.
  • #6530 by Hawgndaaz on 28 Aug 2014
  • I think Bama's offense will struggle. They have 2 qb's, meaning they don't have 1 qb. Coker has the talent, but from what the local Bama media is reporting he doesn't have the play book absorbed as well as Simms. Both will play, with Sims getting the start. WV's defense is terrible, so Bama will put up points and their RB's should run rough-shod over WV. But the Bama offense hasn't looked good since Kiffin stepped on campus. Its spring game exhibited ineptitude, confusion, lack of cohesion on offense.

    My line is at 27. I'm not convinced Bama covers that. Just a hunch.

    nice breakdown. I may stay away from it now.

    BTW, I can't wait for the inevitable fallout between kiffin and darth saban.
  • #6531 by Hawgndaaz on 28 Aug 2014
  • First wager of the year will be a teaser (shut up, I know) but I like where it will put me

    Scarolina -5
    Ole Piss -5

    2 units

    Arkansas line moved a lot overnight now at +19
  • #6532 by McKdaddy on 28 Aug 2014


  • BTW, I can't wait for the inevitable fallout between kiffin and darth saban.

    I think the same thing, Hawg.
  • #6533 by McKdaddy on 28 Aug 2014
  • I'm going to say it again, I love this thread.  Yes, it feeds my addiction.  But it is one of the very few places on HV where you can escape the crazies, the arguing, the b.s., etc.  I'm a HV addict, but the b!tching and the extremists that occupy the MMQB, Jump Ball, and Omaha forums make this thread a respite in the storm.  Yeah, we argue at times and mock each other's picks, but there seems to be some civility to it.
  • #6534 by Hawgndaaz on 28 Aug 2014
  • I'm going to say it again, I love this thread.  Yes, it feeds my addiction.  But it is one of the very few places on HV where you can escape the crazies, the arguing, the b.s., etc.  I'm a HV addict, but the b!tching and the extremists that occupy the MMQB, Jump Ball, and Omaha forums make this thread a respite in the storm.  Yeah, we argue at times and mock each other's picks, but there seems to be some civility to it.

    what blows my mind is the direction the recruiting forum has gone. that used to be a safe haven for no bull, no arguing but it now has the sickness too.
  • #6535 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 28 Aug 2014
  • Well

    Tonight
    Cocks -10 / 2 units
    Ole Piss -10 / 3 units
    Vandy -13.5 / 2 units

    First couple weeks scare me and I'm generally a slow starter.

    If it were four weeks in and Ole Piss is who I think they are and Boise is who I think they are that would be a dime play for me, but not this early.
  • #6536 by Hawgndaaz on 28 Aug 2014
  • Well

    Tonight
    Cocks -10 / 2 units
    Ole Piss -10 / 3 units
    Vandy -13.5 / 2 units

    First couple weeks scare me and I'm generally a slow starter.

    If it were four weeks in and Ole Piss is who I think they are and Boise is who I think they are that would be a dime play for me, but not this early.
    what are your fav sports books in vegas? hogs game kicks off at 1 so I will probably go somewhere around noon. we are staying at either the venetian or cosmopolitan.
  • #6537 by OnYourToes on 28 Aug 2014
  • Well

    Tonight
    Cocks -10 / 2 units
    Ole Piss -10 / 3 units
    Vandy -13.5 / 2 units

    First couple weeks scare me and I'm generally a slow starter.

    If it were four weeks in and Ole Piss is who I think they are and Boise is who I think they are that would be a dime play for me, but not this early.

    Absolutely agree.  I generally lay a lot more on a lot more games early then I do late, strange I know, but my best bets have always been made early.  I am almost at a loss for this first week.
  • #6538 by oldman1015 on 28 Aug 2014
  • First wager of the year will be a teaser (shut up, I know) but I like where it will put me

    Scarolina -5
    Ole Piss -5

    2 units

    Arkansas line moved a lot overnight now at +19
    i've been thinking the same thing. i like this teaser.
  • #6539 by DadVader1 on 28 Aug 2014
  • These all fall in trends from last year that hit over 80% with over 60 occurrences and trends that hit over 70% with over 100 occurrences.  I've never tested to see how these trends hold up from year to year, so I'm starting very small and will go 1/2 unit on each of these:

    Colo St. +3
    Wash -17
    Utah St. +6
    N. Tx +25.5
    Troy +3
    Fresno +22
  • #6540 by The Hogfather on 28 Aug 2014
  • These all fall in trends from last year that hit over 80% with over 60 occurrences and trends that hit over 70% with over 100 occurrences.  I've never tested to see how these trends hold up from year to year, so I'm starting very small and will go 1/2 unit on each of these:

    Colo St. +3
    Wash -17
    Utah St. +6
    N. Tx +25.5
    Troy +3
    Fresno +22

    Don't like seeing Utah State on there.  Can you share these trends?
  • #6541 by widespreadsooie on 28 Aug 2014
  • These all fall in trends from last year that hit over 80% with over 60 occurrences and trends that hit over 70% with over 100 occurrences.  I've never tested to see how these trends hold up from year to year, so I'm starting very small and will go 1/2 unit on each of these:

    Colo St. +3
    Wash -17
    Utah St. +6
    N. Tx +25.5
    Troy +3
    Fresno +22

    I like the UNT and Utah St. picks. As always, I'll be interested to see how your picks shake out.

    I've decided to not add anything to my original card, finalized below:

    Arkansas +21
    FSU -17.5
    Navy +17.5

    0-0 YTD
  • #6542 by Spikes on 28 Aug 2014
  • Going with Jeff picks as always... 

    Adding ULM -1 1/2 and Washington St -7 1/2 (buy down to 7)


    Good luck as always team, and lets collect from the guy on Tuesday!!!


    Spikes
  • #6543 by DadVader1 on 28 Aug 2014
  • I'm not horribly optimistic about the first 2 or 3 weeks, so will stick with small plays to avoid digging too deep of a hole.  Also, the spreadsheets have traditionally performed better when picking favorites, so I'm a bit nervous about playing so many dogs.  I'm much more optimistic about weeks 5-12, after building some data for the current season.  Hogfather, over the last couple of years, I've built the mother of all spreadsheets (actually, the family of all spreadsheets, because it won't all fit into one).  I download rating systems data from http://thepredictiontracker.com, download ncaa stats from the ncaa site, and then run a LOT of combinations to try to figure out the strengths and weaknesses of the rating systems and how they mesh with different stats. It's probably better suited for a database, but I'm better with spreadsheets than databases for now so am making due with that until I up my game with databases.
  • #6544 by mckinneyhog5 on 28 Aug 2014
  • A&M +10
    Ark +18 1/2
    Ul Monroe -1 1/2
    $50 parlay
    Already have the hogs +21 for a nickel.
  • #6545 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 28 Aug 2014
  • ULM -1     2 units
    Tulsa -7    2 units
  • #6546 by OnYourToes on 28 Aug 2014
  • Thursday is placing day for me

    I bought a point and got Fresno St +20.5, I feel pretty good about that one. - 1 unit
    I got South Carolina -9.5 - 1 unit
    Ole Miss -10 - 2 units
    Penn St +2 - 1 unit

    4 plays

    Also in news related to bets I cannot place (heart), I see the Hogs have moved to +18.5  Interesting, a full 3 points since the line first opened. . .

  • #6547 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 28 Aug 2014
  • Everyone has their own style and what they weigh heavier. I don't use spreadsheets, and I never bet trends. Don't know if that's good or bad.

    That's why you will rarely see nickel and dime plays from me early in the season.  I watch A LOT. Most of my picks are based on the eye test.

    I weigh in this order.

    Coaching
    QB play
    Skill Position players
    Defense
    When I am still undecided I try and determine what will be the strongest unit on the field and adjust from there.

    Example. I may totally miss tonight, but I think the best unit on the field will be S Carolina defense. That and Spurrier are the only two reasons I am laying the points.

    Call me naive but that's how my betting brain works.

    Yes many other variables, but that's where I start and served me well so far.  Good luck to all this weekend. Will post my Sat picks as soon as I make them. Prob early sat morning.
  • #6548 by The Hogfather on 28 Aug 2014
  • A&M +10

    I am starting to lean this way.  I feel like A&M might have some success running the ball.  I'm just a little worried about their defense giving up 50.

    They might score a ton and still lose by 19.  50-31 or something of the sort.

    I haven't made up my mind yet.  I think USC will be very good this season.
  • #6549 by onebadrubi on 28 Aug 2014
  • Wash st and rutgers is really looking good.  not knowing too much about these teams turnover is keeping me away, but wash st should be a high scoring affair.  Thinking of taking Wash st -7

    UL Monroe is another, but wake is known to sneak up, not much of a spread here at -1.5.

    I have been toggling the OK st FS st game for days now.  What you guys think?
  • #6550 by The Hogfather on 28 Aug 2014
  • Example. I may totally miss tonight, but I think the best unit on the field will be S Carolina defense. That and Spurrier are the only two reasons I am laying the points.

    I've been thinking this way all week, but I'm starting to wonder if EVERYONE is wrong and TAMU might be able to hang.

    10 is a lot in a game like this.
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