A Look at the Hogs after the first SEC series

[ucahogfan]

With one SEC series in the books, we are now over a third of the way through the regular season with 20 of 56 games played.  I feel like we now have a good track record to look at the strengths and weaknesses of this team:

Strengths

1.  Power - I think this is the most obvious strength as we run out the most powerful lineup in the country.  Sure, we do not lead the country in HRs right now, but we are pretty darn close after a power binge of unbelievable proportions this past weekend.  The power top to bottom in this lineup is the best we have had in program history.  As Kendall Rogers tweeted out this weekend, we do not hit many HRs which just barely sneak out.  We hit some real no doubters.  Everyone in our SEC lineup now has multiple HRs and they are all on pace to hit 5+ HRs.  This team is on pace to smash the program record for HRs of 92 set back in 2010.  We are averaging just over 2 2Bs per game and just under 2 HRs per game.  We have 86 XBHs so far this year as a team.

2.  Plate Discipline - I know we have had some games where we really expand the zone and chase bad pitches, but more often than not this year, our plate discipline has been fantastic.  We have 122 walks and 28 HBPs to go against 150 Ks.  As a team, we are either walking or getting a HBP as much as we have struck out this year.  A lot of that has to be with a veteran lineup, but even Kjerstad and Martin have shown a good eye at the plate at times.

3.  Limiting extra base hits - While we have pounded teams into submission at times with extra base hits, our pitching staff has done a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the yard.  We have allowed 8 HRs so far this year and 31 XBHs total.  This team is going to do extremely well if they continue limiting extra base hits like they have so far this year.

Weaknesses

1.  Limiting damage after errors - While the defense has not been terrible this year, our pitching staff has not done a great job after an error has been committed.  Our fielding percentage is .973 currently and we fielded .976 as a team last year and I think we would say that defense was an elite one.  We have allowed 18 unearned runs in 20 games this year.  That is just too many.  Need to keep it to less than 0.5 runs per game.

2.  Not establishing a consistent Sunday starter - This is more on DVH rather than this team.  DVH has not committed to a consistent Sunday starter.  I think we are at the point where we should commit to Murphy being the Sunday guy which would give us a weekend rotation against Florida where Campbell has the highest season ERA at 1.73.

I obviously could have stated just about every facet of this team as a strength, but felt like I would keep it brief and point out some interesting areas.  When we are playing to our ceiling, there is no team in the country that can stick with us.

I know some people might complain about averaging less than 1 SB per game and we have made some base running errors, but this team has been a good base running team.  If we were only at 15-20 HRs as a team right now, I feel like we would be at 35-40 SBs.  We have several guys in Martin, Cole, and Biggers who all have 20+ SB potential if that was our team's style.

[TebowHater]

Great post and analysis!

DVH more or less declared Murphy our Sunday starter going into Florida in his post game PC. Murphy has definitely earned it.

[ricepig]

Great post and analysis!

DVH more or less declared Murphy our Sunday starter going into Florida in his post game PC. Murphy has definitely earned it.

Yeah, I believe it was he's giving him the week off and will start Sunday.

[hawg1221]

We'll see if that continues.  Baseball is such an up and down game and the Kentucky series can distort reality.  Before Kentucky I was never thinking the hogs could that good at hitting. Unbelievable!  BUT I wonder how good Kentucky actually is. After the Florida series on the road,  I will know more about this team.

[Tony Perkis]

We'll see if that continues.  Baseball is such an up and down game and the Kentucky series can distort reality.  Before Kentucky I was never thinking the hogs could that good at hitting. Unbelievable!  BUT I wonder how good Kentucky actually is. After the Florida series on the road,  I will know more about this team.

I doubt too many teams will do what we just did to Kentucky. They are a very good ball club. We played a darn near perfect series. Makes you feel great as as fan. But, there will come a series or two where we don't play this well as is always the case in baseball.

[HogFansReunited]

As for the Sunday starter, what happened to McKinney? Haven't seen him since opening weekend. Was really hopeful that he would lock down the Sunday role.

[HogFansReunited]

Great write up BTW.

[Kevin]

I think this was dvh plan from the start. Have Murphy throw the two mid week games vs  Arizona & Texas, then , move him to,Sunday when the sec started.  I don't think it was ever in doubt

[JHicks3636]

As for the Sunday starter, what happened to McKinney? Haven't seen him since opening weekend. Was really hopeful that he would lock down the Sunday role.

McKinney has an elbow problem that will likely require surgery. DVH told him to get it repaired and apply for a 6th year of eligibility.

[thebignasty]

I think this was dvh plan from the start. Have Murphy throw the two mid week games vs  Arizona & Texas, then , move him to,Sunday when the sec started.  I don't think it was ever in doubt

I think he wanted to see what McKinney could do before he decided what to do.

[ucahogfan]

McKinney has an elbow problem that will likely require surgery. DVH told him to get it repaired and apply for a 6th year of eligibility.

McKinney is a RS Junior this year.  I think DVH is just mistaken when asking for a 6th year of eligibility right now.  Could be more geared towards a 2020 season.

[HogFansReunited]

McKinney is a RS Junior this year.  I think DVH is just mistaken when asking for a 6th year of eligibility right now.  Could be more geared towards a 2020 season.

It sure seems like he has been here for 5 years. Hate that the kid can't seem to stay healthy. I was really looking forward to him being a dominant Sunday starter but his health is more important.

[ucahogfan]

Great post and analysis!

DVH more or less declared Murphy our Sunday starter going into Florida in his post game PC. Murphy has definitely earned it.

Yeah, it sounds like Murphy is going to be the Sunday guy from here on out.  Murphy has not had the K rate he did last year, but he has only walked 3 hitters in just over 21 IP so far this year.  He has been pounding the zone which has worked well for him.

Campbell has our lowest batting average allowed among our three main starters, but the highest ERA because he has 12 walks so far while Knight and Murphy have 8 combined.

[ucahogfan]

We'll see if that continues.  Baseball is such an up and down game and the Kentucky series can distort reality.  Before Kentucky I was never thinking the hogs could that good at hitting. Unbelievable!  BUT I wonder how good Kentucky actually is. After the Florida series on the road,  I will know more about this team.

While a .419 average is not sustainable as a team and it was probably the best offensive weekend in program history (given the talent level of pitching staff we were facing), I think most of us knew that this offense had the potential to just dominate like we saw against Kentucky.  You brought back Koch, Bonfield, Biggers, Shaddy, Fletcher, and Cole who started all year as well as McFarland and Gates who both saw some ABs with decent success and power and brought in a highly ranked recruiting class.  The only two starters we lost were Spanberger and Arledge from a very good offense.  That was also with a couple guys in Shaddy and Koch who did not have their best seasons.

[Bogey Golf]

I think base running has been a bit of a problem and most of that is on Coach Thompson.  It may be that he just needs to get to know the players better before it gets cleaned up.  Since we are a third of the way into the season, he should have a good handle now and hopefully baserunning will be better going forward.

[dotnet]

I feel like DVH was trying to do two things:

1. Set up 2 dominant starters in Knight and Campbell - which is why he was frustrated with Campbell even though his season stats were still really good coming into today. 

2. Create competition for the Sunday spot and get multiple people experience starting on a weekend.

The issue is Bonnin.  What do you want to do with him?  Do you want him to be an elite back end guy out of the pen or do you want him to be a top notch mid week starter?  The bullpen would help you win more series in the SEC and get a higher seed in the tournament.  If Bonnin developed into the type of fourth starter he could, then that could make you hard to beat in a regional. 

I think McKinney and Rutledge would help give you this answer depending on their health.  I'm not sure if it is still on the table for McKinney to come back this year?

[dotnet]

I think base running has been a bit of a problem and most of that is on Coach Thompson.  It may be that he just needs to get to know the players better before it gets cleaned up.  Since we are a third of the way into the season, he should have a good handle now and hopefully baserunning will be better going forward.

Was there an issue this weekend? 

[rolyat_2008]

I think this was dvh plan from the start. Have Murphy throw the two mid week games vs  Arizona & Texas, then , move him to,Sunday when the sec started.  I don't think it was ever in doubt

Agree. Kacey or DVH in one of these postgame pressers talked about his role being some weekend and key midweek games and that he was fine with the situation just wanted the ball. Wouldn't surprise me to see him start a midweek game when Tech comes to town late April.

[jvanhorn]

Was there an issue this weekend? 

Base running is never a issue when you hit a zillion homeruns.

[Bogey Golf]

Right, it wasn't a problem against Kentucky because of all of the home runs.

[BroyledNutts]

Well done, UCA ...

There does need to be a tightening up of the unearned runs - hope that will come with more fielding experience. Infielders knowing when to just eat the ball and not try to do too much or give free bases ... outfielders knowing when to throw to the cut off and hold runners in position rather than allowing runners to advance. I know the guys have done a heck of a job at this for the majority of the year, but  this weekend the guys seemed to be pressing to get every out and make every play, when sometimes its better to just let something be and keep runners out of scoring position. I think this will improve as they adjust to SEC play.

The only other thing I've seen too much of are strike outs. Need to really limit those now, as each at bat is crucial now that SEC play is here. Hope this improves after they adjust to much better pitching.

We've played very well at home this season - how will they perform on the road ... that's the only real concern for me moving forward - will they play as well on the road in front of hostile crowds in unfamiliar ball parks. IF they can carry that home performance with them on the road the Hogs will be a formidable team to deal with.

Oh, BTW ... did anyone watch the Florida / South Carolina game today? Anybody hear Dave Neal talking about interviewing O'Sullivan about the weekend - Dave said Kevin's big complaint was his pitching staff living up in the zone too much. Dave Neal then told Kevin what the Hogs had done to Kentucky's pitching staff this weekend - 13HRs, 39runs - Neal said after he said that O'Sullivan was at first unbelieving - after seeing the stats, he groaned out loud. He's worried. I hope we give him reason to be.

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

The problem for a Sunday starter is a good problem.  Van Horn has about 5 guys that are good enough to do it pretty well.

[Tortfeasor]

This lineup is loaded, and one of our best hitters in Fletcher hasn't found his groove yet. He will though.

[Wisco Pig]

A few of the Hogs' offensive stats after the first SEC weekend and how they compare nationally:

Home runs:                  39  (2nd in NCAA)
On-base percentage:  .442  (2nd in NCAA)
Slugging percentage:  .568  (2nd)
Scoring (runs/game):   9.3   (4th)
Batting average:         .327  (6th)
Walks drawn:              122   (10th)

Arkansas is also 14th in the country in staff ERA (2.63).

[welchog]

Was there an issue this weekend? 

Yes.  I was at the horns game Wednesday night and we left two runs on the field trying to score from third with one out.  Hjerstad was coming up on one but regardless considering our hitting this year.  He hit it to the wall for the third out.

This has happened in other games.  We hit dang too well to lose close games due to poor base coaching.

[welchog]

This lineup is loaded, and one of our best hitters in Fletcher hasn't found his groove yet. He will though.

I think he did last weekend.

[Pudgepork]

A few of the Hogs' offensive stats after the first SEC weekend and how they compare nationally:

Home runs:                  39  (2nd in NCAA)
On-base percentage:  .442  (2nd in NCAA)
Slugging percentage:  .568  (2nd)
Scoring (runs/game):   9.3   (4th)
Batting average:         .327  (6th)
Walks drawn:              122   (10th)

Arkansas is also 14th in the country in staff ERA (2.63).

I think Hogs rank 1st nationally in batting avg against 6'11" pitchers

[Pudgepork]

I think Hogs rank 1st nationally in batting avg against 6'11" pitchers

You know, that might be a mark that will never be broken.  If Jelly gets his confidence back.

[ucahogfan]

I feel like DVH was trying to do two things:

1. Set up 2 dominant starters in Knight and Campbell - which is why he was frustrated with Campbell even though his season stats were still really good coming into today. 

2. Create competition for the Sunday spot and get multiple people experience starting on a weekend.

The issue is Bonnin.  What do you want to do with him?  Do you want him to be an elite back end guy out of the pen or do you want him to be a top notch mid week starter?  The bullpen would help you win more series in the SEC and get a higher seed in the tournament.  If Bonnin developed into the type of fourth starter he could, then that could make you hard to beat in a regional. 

I think McKinney and Rutledge would help give you this answer depending on their health.  I'm not sure if it is still on the table for McKinney to come back this year?

Bonnin has such insane talent that I hope he is a key piece to this staff this year.  It might be more of a weapon out of the pen in SEC play this year where we just have him let it fly at 95+ with that breaking ball.  Adding him to Cronin, Reindl, and Rutledge (when healthy) along with the other arms gives us a deep pen to go along with a veteran weekend rotation where all 3 guys can shut down opposing offenses.

[nesjunk]

If there was one thing we didn't do well this weekend, it was hit with the bases loaded.  I counted 5 such opportunities against KY and only 3 runs scored.  We had no hits in those 5 chances scoring on a walk and 2 sac flies.  It probably wasn't noticed much since it didn't matter and maybe it was just the law of averages after we doubled and homered with the bases juiced against Texas.  I really had to dig hard to find a negative.  There ya go.

[ucahogfan]

Well done, UCA ...

There does need to be a tightening up of the unearned runs - hope that will come with more fielding experience. Infielders knowing when to just eat the ball and not try to do too much or give free bases ... outfielders knowing when to throw to the cut off and hold runners in position rather than allowing runners to advance. I know the guys have done a heck of a job at this for the majority of the year, but  this weekend the guys seemed to be pressing to get every out and make every play, when sometimes its better to just let something be and keep runners out of scoring position. I think this will improve as they adjust to SEC play.

The only other thing I've seen too much of are strike outs. Need to really limit those now, as each at bat is crucial now that SEC play is here. Hope this improves after they adjust to much better pitching.

We've played very well at home this season - how will they perform on the road ... that's the only real concern for me moving forward - will they play as well on the road in front of hostile crowds in unfamiliar ball parks. IF they can carry that home performance with them on the road the Hogs will be a formidable team to deal with.

Oh, BTW ... did anyone watch the Florida / South Carolina game today? Anybody hear Dave Neal talking about interviewing O'Sullivan about the weekend - Dave said Kevin's big complaint was his pitching staff living up in the zone too much. Dave Neal then told Kevin what the Hogs had done to Kentucky's pitching staff this weekend - 13HRs, 39runs - Neal said after he said that O'Sullivan was at first unbelieving - after seeing the stats, he groaned out loud. He's worried. I hope we give him reason to be.

Part of it could be knowing just how good Kentucky is offensively and we rushed to make plays.  If we button it up allowing unearned runs and start fielding at more of a .980 level, we will truly be elite in all three phases of the game.

We struck out 23 times this weekend against Kentucky who has a staff that strikes out a lot of hitters, but we also drew 18 walks and got hit by 4 pitches.  That is almost a 1:1 ration which is excellent for a team to have at this level.  It also forced Kentucky to throw a ton of pitches and get to their pen early and often.  If we do that to Florida and just don't go Singer / Kowar / Dyson to Byrne, we will have a chance to steal the series in Gainesville.  I'm sure Singer is just thrilled to face this offense again after what happened in Hoover last year.

I know a lot of people do not like us going out West early in the year, but it is hugely beneficial for this team.  It gets them use to traveling and spending time on the road and sleeping in a hotel.  It will also be the toughest trip since they fly commercially and have to connect.  I also think they left really early in the morning and got back extremely late.  While they might fly commercially to Charlotte, XNA has a direct flight to Charlotte as it is one of the largest airports in the country and a hub for American.  There is also a direct to Gainesville on American should they fly commercially down there.

I'm sure O'Sullivan does not want to see our offense right now.  We have the type of offense to make opposing teams just beg for mercy.  Florida has the most impressive weekend rotation in the country and if we succeed against them, I think we could jump up to #1 in most polls.

[ucahogfan]

If there was one thing we didn't do well this weekend, it was hit with the bases loaded.  I counted 5 such opportunities against KY and only 3 runs scored.  We had no hits in those 5 chances scoring on a walk and 2 sac flies.  It probably wasn't noticed much since it didn't matter and maybe it was just the law of averages after we doubled and homered with the bases juiced against Texas.  I really had to dig hard to find a negative.  There ya go.

One of those sac flies was by Kjerstad and he had a salami brought back by Pompey like Cole did to Squires to start out the series.  Fletcher also crushed one, but the cold air kept it in the yard.  If he hits that earlier in the day or in April, he has a grand slam.

[BroyledNutts]

Part of it could be knowing just how good Kentucky is offensively and we rushed to make plays.  If we button it up allowing unearned runs and start fielding at more of a .980 level, we will truly be elite in all three phases of the game.

We struck out 23 times this weekend against Kentucky who has a staff that strikes out a lot of hitters, but we also drew 18 walks and got hit by 4 pitches.  That is almost a 1:1 ration which is excellent for a team to have at this level.  It also forced Kentucky to throw a ton of pitches and get to their pen early and often.  If we do that to Florida and just don't go Singer / Kowar / Dyson to Byrne, we will have a chance to steal the series in Gainesville.  I'm sure Singer is just thrilled to face this offense again after what happened in Hoover last year.

I know a lot of people do not like us going out West early in the year, but it is hugely beneficial for this team.  It gets them use to traveling and spending time on the road and sleeping in a hotel.  It will also be the toughest trip since they fly commercially and have to connect.  I also think they left really early in the morning and got back extremely late.  While they might fly commercially to Charlotte, XNA has a direct flight to Charlotte as it is one of the largest airports in the country and a hub for American.  There is also a direct to Gainesville on American should they fly commercially down there.

I'm sure O'Sullivan does not want to see our offense right now.  We have the type of offense to make opposing teams just beg for mercy.  Florida has the most impressive weekend rotation in the country and if we succeed against them, I think we could jump up to #1 in most polls.

Very good points. I would like us to win this series, but getting one would be acceptable. I would trade only one win at a really good Florida to go to Alex Box and sweep LSU ... they got it coming' ... and we have the team that could do it.

I have to say that I've grown to respect Kevin O'Sullivan. He's made Florida the powerhouse they probably should have always been, given the ridiculous recruiting base to draw from. I used to think he was an arrogant jerk, but I've come to understand that he has a real respect for Razorback Baseball, and he and DVH apparently really like each other.

Does the baseball team not have access to charter flights like the football and basketball teams? I thought they used to, but I'm hearing more and more about commercial flights for the Diamond Hogs.

[ThisTeetsTaken]

If we really want to know how good we are just wait until this weekend.  Won't get any tougher than playing Florida at their place.

[dotnet]

If we really want to know how good we are just wait until this weekend.  Won't get any tougher than playing Florida at their place.

Everyone obviously wants to win every series.  But if you go on the road to Florida and Ole Miss on back to back weekends and come out of it with a 3-3 record, then you have to feel pretty good about it.

[ucahogfan]

Very good points. I would like us to win this series, but getting one would be acceptable. I would trade only one win at a really good Florida to go to Alex Box and sweep LSU ... they got it coming' ... and we have the team that could do it.

I have to say that I've grown to respect Kevin O'Sullivan. He's made Florida the powerhouse they probably should have always been, given the ridiculous recruiting base to draw from. I used to think he was an arrogant jerk, but I've come to understand that he has a real respect for Razorback Baseball, and he and DVH apparently really like each other.

Does the baseball team not have access to charter flights like the football and basketball teams? I thought they used to, but I'm hearing more and more about commercial flights for the Diamond Hogs.

I would like to see win the series this weekend and then beat LSU so bad that it seems like the Kentucky series were close games.

I think part of why Florida struggled was due to Florida State and Miami.  That is where a lot of the elite prospects went while O'Sullivan is bringing in a lot of the top Florida talent and then cherry picking elite guys from around the country like Jackson Kowar who is from the Charlotte area or Logan Shore who was from Minnesota or even AJ Puk who was from Iowa.  O'Sullivan got to Gainesville and he landed an elite recruiting class with players like Mike Zunino, Nolan Fontana, Paco Rodriguez, Brian Johnson, and Hudson Randall which led them to Omaha three straight years and made the a power to be reckoned with.  It is also hard to believe that both O'Sullivan and Corbin were on the same staff at Clemson from 1999 - 2002.

I doubt they are flying commercially during SEC play, but DVH did mention they flew commercially out to California.  I would think we are bussing to Memphis and to the Oxford from there if we do not fly straight there from Gainesville.

[ucahogfan]

Everyone obviously wants to win every series.  But if you go on the road to Florida and Ole Miss on back to back weekends and come out of it with a 3-3 record, then you have to feel pretty good about it.

The first three weeks of SEC play will tell us a lot about this team as all three teams could be ranked in the top 5 when we play them and six of those games are on the road.  We have the talent to do really well and I don't think we face a tougher stretch all year.

[HognitiveDissonance]

With one SEC series in the books, we are now over a third of the way through the regular season with 20 of 56 games played.  I feel like we now have a good track record to look at the strengths and weaknesses of this team:

Strengths

1.  Power - I think this is the most obvious strength as we run out the most powerful lineup in the country.  Sure, we do not lead the country in HRs right now, but we are pretty darn close after a power binge of unbelievable proportions this past weekend.  The power top to bottom in this lineup is the best we have had in program history.  As Kendall Rogers tweeted out this weekend, we do not hit many HRs which just barely sneak out.  We hit some real no doubters.  Everyone in our SEC lineup now has multiple HRs and they are all on pace to hit 5+ HRs.  This team is on pace to smash the program record for HRs of 92 set back in 2010.  We are averaging just over 2 2Bs per game and just under 2 HRs per game.  We have 86 XBHs so far this year as a team.

2.  Plate Discipline - I know we have had some games where we really expand the zone and chase bad pitches, but more often than not this year, our plate discipline has been fantastic.  We have 122 walks and 28 HBPs to go against 150 Ks.  As a team, we are either walking or getting a HBP as much as we have struck out this year.  A lot of that has to be with a veteran lineup, but even Kjerstad and Martin have shown a good eye at the plate at times.

3.  Limiting extra base hits - While we have pounded teams into submission at times with extra base hits, our pitching staff has done a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the yard.  We have allowed 8 HRs so far this year and 31 XBHs total.  This team is going to do extremely well if they continue limiting extra base hits like they have so far this year.

Weaknesses

1.  Limiting damage after errors - While the defense has not been terrible this year, our pitching staff has not done a great job after an error has been committed.  Our fielding percentage is .973 currently and we fielded .976 as a team last year and I think we would say that defense was an elite one.  We have allowed 18 unearned runs in 20 games this year.  That is just too many.  Need to keep it to less than 0.5 runs per game.

2.  Not establishing a consistent Sunday starter - This is more on DVH rather than this team.  DVH has not committed to a consistent Sunday starter.  I think we are at the point where we should commit to Murphy being the Sunday guy which would give us a weekend rotation against Florida where Campbell has the highest season ERA at 1.73.

I obviously could have stated just about every facet of this team as a strength, but felt like I would keep it brief and point out some interesting areas.  When we are playing to our ceiling, there is no team in the country that can stick with us.

I know some people might complain about averaging less than 1 SB per game and we have made some base running errors, but this team has been a good base running team.  If we were only at 15-20 HRs as a team right now, I feel like we would be at 35-40 SBs.  We have several guys in Martin, Cole, and Biggers who all have 20+ SB potential if that was our team's style.

Obvious weakness to me is the defense. Seems we're already forgetting they threw the ball all over the yard in San Diego.
Maybe too harsh, but it def doesn't seem like a great defensive club.

[SPAL]

Obvious weakness to me is the defense. Seems we're already forgetting they threw the ball all over the yard in San Diego.
Maybe too harsh, but it def doesn't seem like a great defensive club.

True, but some of that was freshmen making mistakes. They've gotten much better since Cali.