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Poll

How many wins is enough to say he was the right hire?

0-2
- 4 (1.6%)
3-4
- 20 (7.8%)
5
- 21 (8.2%)
6
- 46 (18%)
7
- 97 (38%)
8
- 54 (21.2%)
9
- 5 (2%)
10+
- 8 (3.1%)

Total Members Voted: 255


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bennyl08

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #50 on: December 06, 2017, 10:20:24 pm »

Bonus Question:  How many wins do you think he will get?

There are a lot of fans that are skeptical of this hire, and a lot that have openly embraced it.

my question is, what is the win threshold next year for you to be able to say this was a good hire?

2018 Arkansas Football Schedule
Sept. 1 – EASTERN ILLINOIS
Sept. 8 – at Colorado State
Sept. 15 – NORTH TEXAS
Sept. 22 – at Auburn
Sept. 29 – vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas)
Oct. 6 – ALABAMA
Oct. 13 – OLE MISS
Oct. 20 – TULSA
Oct. 27 – VANDERBILT
Nov. 3 – Open Date
Nov. 10 – LSU
Nov. 17 – at Mississippi State
Nov. 24 – at Missouri

Answered the main part before, but the schedule is worth looking at in some detail.

First thing is to note that we are not in a rebuild year as far as talent. Raw talent wise, we are looking at an 8-9 win year next year. Of course, we aren't just dealing with Jimmy's and Joe's, but how well will we be able to implement a new offense and defense? Further, how well Morris can adapt to who we currently have will play a big role. With Bielema, it made sense to wait 5  years. With Morris and the ample talent that we currently have, we will know within three years for better or for worse.

Eastern Illinois should be a comfy win. They are not even a good FCS team. Biggest question here will be how many points we allow on defense. We could shut them out and it wouldn't mean a thing as far as how we will do in the SEC, but if we give up 21+ points, that would be an ominous start.

@CSU. This will be a good test for us. Roster wise, we should win this game by 21 points, pulling away in the second half. However, this is a team that in a 2017 or 2012 type of year could certainly beat us by the same margin. If we win this game, then we'll know that Morris will have this team ready. If we lose, we are losing to a team that is less talented than we are. Could just be a sign of implementing a new scheme, or it could be a sign of worse things to come.

North Texas should be a win as well. However, they could put up a good first half fight on us and that wouldn't be a negative. If we struggle to pull away by the fourth quarter though, that won't be a good sign.

@Auburn: That's likely going to be a loss. Not sure what they have coming back, but I don't see Morris going into the plains and pulling out a win.

aTm: They have a new coach and we have a new coach. We've been neck and neck with them for the better part of the last decade. Petrino had a blowout the first year we played them, they had a blowout in the smiley season. Every other game has been at least a 1 possession game in the 4th quarter. Jimbo's never been a HC outside of the FSU program that was already winning at a high level before he took over. No guarantee he will be great there. This will be a good test for both programs to see what kind of coaching they are paying for given the similarity in talent level.

Bama: Loss

OM: No idea how this one will turn out. We've done well against them in recent years. If Morris is at least as good as Bielema, I like our odds. No telling though.

Tulsa: Should be a win. However, the Tulsa team will be just a notch below CSU in terms of difficulty. If the Morris transition goes smoothly, expect a win. If there are some bad growing pains, could be a loss. If we have a smiley type of season, expect a loss.

Vandy: Don't know a lot about Vandy for next season yet. If they are losing a lot of players, I'd say this game should be around the same level of difficulty as tulsa. If they are returning a lot of players, it could be a bit tougher than CSU.

LSU: Normally a toss up, but with a new coach for us, this is likely a loss

@MSU: With Mullen there, I'd label this a loss for us as well. Talent wise I'd say we could and perhaps should beat them. However, Mullen isn't there anymore so they are going to be in a similar position as we will be. Ours has some HC experience but didn't do anything ground shattering but at least does have that experience. Their new coach has a lot more college experience in general but none as a HC. Similar to the aggie game, should be a good test for both schools. Also, playing at their place has always proved challenging. The 2010 hog team would have won by multiple possessions if that game was in fayetteville, but being in starksville, it was a fight to the very end. So, if things are even otherwise, MSU would get the nod.

@Mizz: Home field has shown to be big here as well. I know Mizzou returned a heckuvalot of players last year so presumably this year they'll be losing a good amount. Will be interesting to see if we've grown and improved as a team over the season or become frustrated and quit with the new coach playing a bunch of freshmen who are still playing hard.
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root_hawg

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #51 on: December 06, 2017, 10:24:42 pm »

Has to win 9
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CFB_Fanatic

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #52 on: December 06, 2017, 11:40:57 pm »

2018 Arkansas Football Schedule
Sept. 1 – EASTERN ILLINOIS   W
Sept. 8 – at Colorado State      L
Sept. 15 – NORTH TEXAS         W
Sept. 22 – at Auburn               L
Sept. 29 – vs. Texas A&M        L
Oct. 6 – ALABAMA                   L
Oct. 13 – OLE MISS                 W
Oct. 20 – TULSA                      W
Oct. 27 – VANDERBILT             L
Nov. 3 – Open Date           
Nov. 10 – LSU                          L
Nov. 17 – at Mississippi State    L
Nov. 24 – at Missouri                L

4-8. Will be competitive in some of the losses though, so there will be some excitement heading into 2019
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TNRazorbacker

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #53 on: December 06, 2017, 11:51:04 pm »

if he wins 8, you can put me squarely on board with this guy.   I agree we have the talent to do it.  new coach / new system, its going to take some great coaching.  But that is why we hired him right?

I look at this team and just don't see much reason for optimism next year. This team was bad and really was from the start. All BB's talk about injuries was just deflection.  Our best hope is that they have a lot more potential than we saw, which isn't much to hang your hat on.

That said if Morris wins 8 in year 1 with this roster we have absolutely hit a home run with this hire.  More likely we are a few years away from getting there.
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Pork Twain

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #54 on: December 06, 2017, 11:53:37 pm »

Like when HDN took over, I think we have a very talented team that was the victim of poor coaching.  Unlike when CBP and CBB took over, I see this as a much quicker turn-around.
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jmark

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #55 on: December 07, 2017, 12:10:17 am »

4-4 in conference or CCM starts his sec coaching record in the hole
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870rzrback

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #56 on: December 07, 2017, 12:31:20 am »

Question wasn't what I expected, but the minimum to not think we need to bail immediately. That's 5 wins. 6 wins is a pleased. 7 wins is happy.  8 wins is ecstatic. 9+ is us winning an NC within 5 years.
If he only gets 5 wins with that soft schedule then we need to bail. I'd expect 7 wins out of that.  The only games that should be losses there next year are Bama, auburn, a&m and lsu. Leaving room for one other loss, but anything less than 7 is a disappointment.
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PorkSoda

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #57 on: December 07, 2017, 12:37:44 am »

4-4 in conference or CCM starts his sec coaching record in the hole
technically correct
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PorkSoda

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #58 on: December 07, 2017, 12:41:19 am »

I look at this team and just don't see much reason for optimism next year. This team was bad and really was from the start. All BB's talk about injuries was just deflection.  Our best hope is that they have a lot more potential than we saw, which isn't much to hang your hat on.

That said if Morris wins 8 in year 1 with this roster we have absolutely hit a home run with this hire.  More likely we are a few years away from getting there.
maybe not across the board. But we have some ballerz.  If morris can adapt his system to our players he will have immediate success.  If he goes the bb route and tries to fit the players to his system its a long slow rebuild
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Pork Twain

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #59 on: December 07, 2017, 01:30:40 am »

4-4 in conference or CCM starts his sec coaching record in the hole
Well you see, you can't say he starts off 4-4 and then say he starts off in the hole.  Those are not the same thing.  4-4 would be even and 3-5 would be in the hole.
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Gro฿er Kriegschwein

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #60 on: December 07, 2017, 01:35:37 am »

maybe not across the board. But we have some ballerz.  If morris can adapt his system to our players he will have immediate success.  If he goes the bb route and tries to fit the players to his system its a long slow rebuild

I'd say that our players are more compatible with CM system than BBs.

Odd as it may seem.
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PorkSoda

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #61 on: December 07, 2017, 01:41:29 am »

I'd say that our players are more compatible with CM system than BBs.

Odd as it may seem.
you might be right.   Honestly brets biggest fault was losing the players somewhere along the way.  If morris can pick them up and put them on the same page, he'll have a solid group to work with.
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Gro฿er Kriegschwein

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #62 on: December 07, 2017, 01:46:35 am »

you might be right.   Honestly brets biggest fault was losing the players somewhere along the way.  If morris can pick them up and put them on the same page, he'll have a solid group to work with.

Nah. It wasn't really losing players, per se.

He didn't realize that some players wouldn't develop under his system. Many of them were linemen. Without offensive linemen, Bret couldn't maintain his ball control type offense. Instead of bunching up, he had Enos start spreading it out a little bit, but we weren't really good at that either.

How's Hawa'ii?
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PorkSoda

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #63 on: December 07, 2017, 01:55:17 am »

Nah. It wasn't really losing players, per se.

He didn't realize that some players wouldn't develop under his system. Many of them were linemen. Without offensive linemen, Bret couldn't maintain his ball control type offense. Instead of bunching up, he had Enos start spreading it out a little bit, but we weren't really good at that either.
whatever the case he could nt assemble all the pieces into a successful system.  In the end we needed a fresh look.  If morris has the vision to see potential in this team, he may generate some early success.  Heck hootie had a knack for having success in his first 2 years.  So it can happen
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Gro฿er Kriegschwein

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #64 on: December 07, 2017, 01:59:45 am »

whatever the case he could nt assemble all the pieces into a successful system.  In the end we needed a fresh look.  If morris has the vision to see potential in this team, he may generate some early success.  Heck hootie had a knack for having success in his first 2 years.  So it can happen

I would expect the hunger of the players to win will make them like sponges. They will soak up his system quick. There is talent there. Our linemen are better suited for a shotgun spread anyway.
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southarkhog06

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #65 on: December 07, 2017, 03:29:49 am »

I would expect the hunger of the players to win will make them like sponges. They will soak up his system quick. There is talent there. Our linemen are better suited for a shotgun spread anyway.
True, BB tried to stubbornly put square pegs into round holes too many times. It may be wishful thinking but I feel like with a new system we may see new life for some of these 4 star olinemen that didn't "pan out" in the CBB era.

I love the style he had at Wisky, but I have to admit our recruiting base just doesn't produce the players that fit that style.
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bigred223

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #66 on: December 07, 2017, 03:38:42 am »

One of the softest schedules i can remember. 7-5 seems reasonable.
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scottwillrazbackfan1

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #67 on: December 07, 2017, 06:18:07 am »

2018 Arkansas Football Schedule
Sept. 1 – EASTERN ILLINOIS- ----win
Sept. 8 – at Colorado State--------win
Sept. 15 – NORTH TEXAS ----------win
Sept. 22 – at Auburn ---------------Loss
Sept. 29 – vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas)-w
Oct. 6 – ALABAMA -------Loss
Oct. 13 – OLE MISS ------win
Oct. 20 – TULSA ----------win
Oct. 27 – VANDERBILT -----win
Nov. 3 – Open Date
Nov. 10 – LSU ---------------Loss
Nov. 17 – at Mississippi State -Loss
Nov. 24 – at Missouri -----win
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beachhawg

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #68 on: December 07, 2017, 06:51:57 am »

Only losses I see are Bama, Auburn, and LSU
Miss St new coaches, mizzou lost OC, Jimbo isn’t the 75 million dollar man, and no way we lose out of conference with these matchups
Hogs will be older overall and with different conditioning and mentality look for more success
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Mellon Collie

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #69 on: December 07, 2017, 06:57:18 am »

One of the softest schedules i can remember. 7-5 seems reasonable.

more than reasonable. at least 7.
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llemmonds

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #70 on: December 07, 2017, 07:18:52 am »

My belief is that the 2018 roster is a five or six win team with a poor or mediocre coach. The NFL research shows very little variance from one coach getting fired to his successor in the following season (https://statsbylopez.com/2017/01/04/matching-to-estimate-the-causal-effects-of-firing-an-nfl-coach/) but I'm not sure the same applies to college football and it's possible a good coach is two wins better than mediocre so I think eight wins in year one will show that Morris is above average or excellent college coach.
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RazorChuck

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #71 on: December 07, 2017, 07:26:58 am »

2018 Arkansas Football Schedule
Sept. 1 – EASTERN ILLINOIS- ----win
Sept. 8 – at Colorado State--------loss
Sept. 15 – NORTH TEXAS ----------loss
Sept. 22 – at Auburn ---------------loss
Sept. 29 – vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas)-loss
Oct. 6 – ALABAMA -------Loss
Oct. 13 – OLE MISS ------loss
Oct. 20 – TULSA ----------loss
Oct. 27 – VANDERBILT -----loss
Nov. 3 – Open Date
Nov. 10 – LSU ---------------Loss
Nov. 17 – at Mississippi State -Loss
Nov. 24 – at Missouri -----loss
The beginning of the end.
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Ex-Trumpet

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #72 on: December 07, 2017, 07:37:58 am »

2018 Arkansas Football Schedule
Sept. 1 – EASTERN ILLINOIS W
Sept. 8 – at Colorado State L
Sept. 15 – NORTH TEXAS W
Sept. 22 – at Auburn L
Sept. 29 – vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas) L
Oct. 6 – ALABAMA L
Oct. 13 – OLE MISS W
Oct. 20 – TULSA W
Oct. 27 – VANDERBILT L
Nov. 3 – Open Date
Nov. 10 – LSU L
Nov. 17 – at Mississippi State L
Nov. 24 – at Missouri L

4-8

Dude, Bielema is gone!  These gloom and doom predictions are in the rear view mirror!
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RazorChuck

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #73 on: December 07, 2017, 08:09:22 am »

Dude, Bielema is gone!  These gloom and doom predictions are in the rear view mirror!
Kool-aid is so delicious........
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Ex-Trumpet

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #74 on: December 07, 2017, 08:28:07 am »

Kool-aid is so delicious........

You need to pay attention to the teacher before she takes your phone away.
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RazorChuck

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #75 on: December 07, 2017, 08:31:17 am »

You need to pay attention to the teacher before she takes your phone away.
Still thirsty huh, suck that Kool-aid down, remain oblivious to everything around you.
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jmark

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Re: How many wins next year?
« Reply #76 on: December 07, 2017, 08:32:12 am »

Well you see, you can't say he starts off 4-4 and then say he starts off in the hole.  Those are not the same thing.  4-4 would be even and 3-5 would be in the hole.

i did say or.
when is the last time we went 4-4 in our conference?
I'm saying CCM needs to be at least 4-4 his first year
bret was fired for not winning enough conference games
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