NCAAT committee did Mizzou no favors

[Niels Boar]

A key to a deep run in the NCAAT is usually a good draw in matchups.  It would have been difficult to design a worse draw for Missouri.  Marquette, Memphis, and now UConn are all in the top 50 in the nation in offensive TO percentage and in the top third in the NCAAT field in that category.  UConn and Memphis are also two of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation.  That Mizzou has advanced to the Elite Eight forcing less than 12 TOs a game proves that their success is less dependent on shooting layups after TOs than many in the media would have you believe.  They are in now in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.   

If Mizzou beats UConn, they could win it all because they will find a better matchup waiting in the FF, whoever it is.  I could make a statistical case for Mizzou beating Memphis.  That's a taller order with UConn.  UConn excels both in rebounding and handling the ball on O.  They have no obvious weaknesses on D, though they don't force TOs, and have a significant size advantage.  All hope is not lost.  UConn isn't unbeatable.  Purdue, a team no bigger than Mizzou, hung around with them.  Missouri is better than Purdue.  Some points in Mizzou's favor:

1.  UConn being short a guard should give Mizzou a fighting chance.  Without Dyson UConn only has a seven-man rotation.  The longer Mizzou stays in contact, the better their chances. 

2.  UConn isn't a good FT shooting team.  Minus Dyson, they shoot just under 67% from the FT line.  Thabeet and Adrien, who figure to be tough matchups inside, both shoot under 63%.

3.  The tenor of this game changes if Thabeet gets in foul trouble.  Lyons is one of the leaders in the nation at getting to the line.

4.  Missouri has to guard UConn's bigs in the paint.  But UConn's bigs will have to guard Mizzou's forwards on the perimeter.  Every big Missouri sends in the game can hit a jump shot.  Carroll, Lyons, and Stafford have to be respected at the arc.  UConn has their own problems matching up.

5.  Price is a fine PG, but he only shoots 42% inside the arc. He isn't a 6-5 whirling dervish trying to get to the rim.  He's a different kind of PG than McNeal and Evans, who so bedeviled Mizzou in rounds 2 and 3.

6.  Like Memphis UConn only has one perimeter option, Price.  That should help in defending inside.

7.  UConn will be difficult to guard inside once the bigs get their hands on the ball, but Mizzou is good at pass denial.  UConn will be a more stationary target on O than Memphis and Marquette.  My guess is that the bigs will do most of their damage on the offensive glass, which will probably be considerable.

If Missouri can get open jump shots, they should have a chance in this game.  Mizzou could possibly have a solid TO margin since UConn forces no TOs.  That isn't necessarily good.  Can Mizzou's passing get UConn out of position?  Mizzou also needs to win the arc significantly and take Thabeet's legs away.  If Missouri is within 10 at the 30-minute mark and the UConn kids are grabbing their shorts on FTAs, Missouri will be in a position to take the advantage down the stretch.

[BrooklynRoss]

Nice post. Actually, though, I think Louisville matches up pretty well with Mizzou. Pitino is one of the few coaches in the nation who truly respects and  knows how to deal with the system that Mike Anderson is using. Remember those KY vs. Ark. games in the '90s? That was Pitino and he gave those razorback squads all they wanted in the regular season and more than they wanted in the SEC tournament. I'm also trying to build myself up because I have Louisville beating Missouri in the final four in my bracket. Nice analysis!

[Buff]

Screw my bracket, go Mizzou.

[rude1]

Good analysis. Mo. does have a chance, but this mountain they are about embark upon climbing will be much steeper than the Memphis mountain. UCONN is solid across the board, and after watching Memphis control the inside against them, I can only imagine the trouble they are going to have trying to defend the paint and keeping  the Huskies off the offensive glass. This one could be a long night for Mo. if the Huskies are on their A game.

[Niels Boar]

Nice post. Actually, though, I think Louisville matches up pretty well with Mizzou. Pitino is one of the few coaches in the nation who truly respects and  knows how to deal with the system that Mike Anderson is using. Remember those KY vs. Ark. games in the '90s? That was Pitino and he gave those razorback squads all they wanted in the regular season and more than they wanted in the SEC tournament. I'm also trying to build myself up because I have Louisville beating Missouri in the final four in my bracket. Nice analysis!

The disadvantages Missouri appears to have against UConn are striking.  It's not that I would expect them to be the favorite in the FF, but they would have more pros on their side of their ledger against just about anybody else than they do against UConn.  Louisville-Missouri would be a hoot.  It would harken back to the great Pitino-Nolan battles.

Another note is that UConn had all sorts of trouble in two losses with Pitt's Young, who scored 25 and 31 in the tilts.  Pitt is obviously a very different team than Mizzou, but Carroll and Lyons are similar types of players to Young as Swiss-army-knife forwards that feel as comfortable on the perimeter as on the blocks. 

[Niels Boar]

Good analysis. Mo. does have a chance, but this mountain they are about embark upon climbing will be much steeper than the Memphis mountain. UCONN is solid across the board, and after watching Memphis control the inside against them, I can only imagine the trouble they are going to have trying to defend the paint and keeping  the Huskies off the offensive glass. This one could be a long night for Mo. if the Huskies are on their A game.

It's a good bet that UConn will pound Missouri into oblivion inside and on the offensive glass.  I'm holding out hope for a repeat of that Arkansas-LSU game in the 2000 SECT.  LSU had two NBA draftees at the #4 and #5, Stromile Swift and Jabari Smith.  They ran with us, and Swift almost never saw the ball.  The ball pressure prevented entry passes when they occasionally got the ball past halfcourt.  I remember Brady telling the halftime reporter that "They weren't afraid to run with Arkansas."  Idiot.  I believe LSU made it to the SS that year. It isn't in UConn's nature to walk the ball up the court, but their guards are good.  Calhoun is no dummy, either.

[Smokehouse]

Mizzou will win if they can get Thabeet frustrated with the press and rack up some early fouls on him. UCONN is such a drastically different team when he gets in foul trouble and has to play careful.

[BrooklynRoss]

It's a good bet that UConn will pound Missouri into oblivion inside and on the offensive glass.  I'm holding out hope for a repeat of that Arkansas-LSU game in the 2000 SECT.  LSU had two NBA draftees at the #4 and #5, Stromile Swift and Jabari Smith.  They ran with us, and Swift almost never saw the ball.  The ball pressure prevented entry passes when they occasionally got the ball past halfcourt.  I remember Brady telling the halftime reporter that "They weren't afraid to run with Arkansas."  Idiot.  I believe LSU made it to the SS that year. It isn't in UConn's nature to walk the ball up the court, but their guards are good.  Calhoun is no dummy, either.

Yeah, good points.

Check this out, I just pulled this quote from an article from UCONN's campus newspaper.

Keep in mind that this quote was taken today from A.J. Price, UCONN's All-American point guard, leading scorer, and the unquestioned leader of their team on the floor:

"I haven't seen much of them, but I know they're athletic, they get up and down the floor," Price said. "We can do that too, we've played teams with that style, so it shouldn't be a problem."

Um... I think he needs to watch some tape.

Here's the full article.

[BrooklynRoss]

The disadvantages Missouri appears to have against UConn are striking.  It's not that I would expect them to be the favorite in the FF, but they would have more pros on their side of their ledger against just about anybody else than they do against UConn.  Louisville-Missouri would be a hoot.  It would harken back to the great Pitino-Nolan battles.

Another note is that UConn had all sorts of trouble in two losses with Pitt's Young, who scored 25 and 31 in the tilts.  Pitt is obviously a very different team than Mizzou, but Carroll and Lyons are similar types of players to Young as Swiss-army-knife forwards that feel as comfortable on the perimeter as on the blocks. 

Yeah, Caroll by himself is turning into a matchup nightmare for almost anybody. On top of everything else he ended up with 6 assists last night.

If Coach Mike is smart (and I think we all know the answer to that question) he'll have Lyons and Carroll working the perimeter and pulling Autrey and Thabeet out of the lane, then hit those speedy guards with a pass as they come curling around those screens like they do.

If Calhoun is smart (also an easy question) he'll do everything in his power to slooow the game down and try to play it in the half-court, where they have the advantage. It will be tough to convince the UCONN players they can't run with Mizzou, though. Those guys love the up-tempo game and fancy themselves one of the better transition teams in the league (which is filled with good transition teams, incidentally.) However, up-tempo in the Big East is not the same thing as what Coach Mike is running at Mizzou.