Arrogate's feet for whatever reason hate the Del Mar racing surface

[HogFanInBryant]

Don't run him in the BC Classic Bob, he may not light the board!  Don't ever run him at Del Mar again period!

[songofthesword]

you honestly had to be a village idiot to wager on arrogate after baffert said the only reason he's running him is because the breeders cup is here

he's owned by the sheikhs.  guarantee you they just ship his to gulfstream to get him ready for the pegasus again then to dubai. that's the only 2 reasons he needs to run in lol

[HogFanInBryant]

you honestly had to be a village idiot to wager on arrogate after baffert said the only reason he's running him is because the breeders cup is here

he's owned by the sheikhs.  guarantee you they just ship his to gulfstream to get him ready for the pegasus again then to dubai. that's the only 2 reasons he needs to run in lol

I agree and just want them to do what is right with the horse.  When they spin their wheels on a surface they hate like I saw today, the next thing is an injury.  It throws everything out of whack and surely Bob knows that!  Btw I made a small wager and lost lol...I bet a cold $25 exacta with Accelerate over Collected so I was wrong all over the place lol!

[userpick]

I wouldn't be surprised if he's done. He probably doesn't love the track, but he's not the same animal.

[HogFanInBryant]

I wouldn't be surprised if he's done. He probably doesn't love the track, but he's not the same animal.

If he ran that close of a 2nd on a track he hated then you could take some positives out of it.  On a track today against this bunch where he wasn't spinning his wheels, I think he would have won it easily!  I'm with SOS, point him to the Pegasus with maybe a tune up or 2 before it on a tracks he knows he will glide over.

[kingoftherapids]

Gun runner is now the man

[ghostzapper]

Arrogate ran about 2 lengths slower than his best race.  3rd race of a form cycle may make him perfect for BC.  In that a lot of trainers are bemoaning the track surface and saying it takes a few spins in order to adjust to it, he may be rounding nicely into his form. 

Interestingly, his race Saturday was still faster than anything GR has run to date, as was the winner's. 

[userpick]

Arrogate ran about 2 lengths slower than his best race.  3rd race of a form cycle may make him perfect for BC.  In that a lot of trainers are bemoaning the track surface and saying it takes a few spins in order to adjust to it, he may be rounding nicely into his form. 

Interestingly, his race Saturday was still faster than anything GR has run to date, as was the winner's. 

Gun runner would have waxed his ass on Saturday.

[ghostzapper]

No he wouldn't have.  On what basis do you think he would have?

[userpick]

No he wouldn't have.  On what basis do you think he would have?

Being the best horse in the world at the moment. On their best days, Arrogate is clearly better, but he's no where near his best right now.

[kingoftherapids]

Being the best horse in the world at the moment. On their best days, Arrogate is clearly better, but he's no where near his best right now.

This

[cbhawg03]

This

You two will never learn.  It's a brick wall thing that you just got to let go.

[husker71]

for those of us who have won and lost money at the track I am a firm believer in horses liking or not liking certain tracks.  I would love to hear some stories from you guys about that point.  I won big a couple of times when (at Charleston) I found some runners that did not win at Charleston (maidens) but when they went somewhere they really ran bad so maybe 4th at Charleston but 9th at Mountaineer. So when they came back to Charleston their form showed bad form at lesser claiming amounts .  I took the chance and they both won easy at like $18 or so.  BUT I lost when they went from 4 1/2 to 6 so maybe it was also the distance.  Just a note for some reason I cannot seem to be able to bet at Twinspires now that I am overseas.  I will contact them today because I am jonesing to bet a little.  No video poker and no horse betting  I might as well be a monk.

[heavylifting]

I am a firm believer in horses liking or not liking certain tracks.  I would love to hear some stories from you guys about that point. 

Skip Away could not get over the track at Churchill Downs, a fact that Shane Sellers confirmed to my face. Off the board there in the 96 Derby and the 98 Breeders' Cup Classic (although Bailey rode him in the latter race).

[husker71]

now that was a runner.  Skip Away probably underrated pretty bad in the scope of things

[HawgWild]

I went out to Hollywood Park for the 1997 Breeder's Cup. I was at the track for one of their meet and greet sessions with some of the jockeys, Kent Desormeaux and Corey Nakatani a couple of days before the races. They were asked who they thought was going to win the Classic. Without any hesitation they both said "Skip Away". He ran big, winning by 6 lengths and setting a TR for the distance.

[HogFanInBryant]

for those of us who have won and lost money at the track I am a firm believer in horses liking or not liking certain tracks.  I would love to hear some stories from you guys about that point.  I won big a couple of times when (at Charleston) I found some runners that did not win at Charleston (maidens) but when they went somewhere they really ran bad so maybe 4th at Charleston but 9th at Mountaineer. So when they came back to Charleston their form showed bad form at lesser claiming amounts .  I took the chance and they both won easy at like $18 or so.  BUT I lost when they went from 4 1/2 to 6 so maybe it was also the distance.  Just a note for some reason I cannot seem to be able to bet at Twinspires now that I am overseas.  I will contact them today because I am jonesing to bet a little.  No video poker and no horse betting  I might as well be a monk.

Want to hear something more amazing than Arrogate running 2nd on a track he absolutely hated in the Pacific Classic?  Zenyatta despised the track in her narrow defeat at Churchill Downs in the BCC.  Mike Smith said she never truly got a-hold of the track during the entire race and including her stretch run...and you can tell if you go back and watch her body language.

[kingoftherapids]

Want to hear something more amazing than Arrogate running 2nd on a track he absolutely hated in the Pacific Classic?  Zenyatta despised the track in her narrow defeat at Churchill Downs in the BCC.  Mike Smith said she never truly got a-hold of the track during the entire race and including her stretch run...and you can tell if you go back and watch her body language.

Yes. and that race was on the biggest stage in the world with a full field and the lone female against a bunch of older males. was the most impressive losing effort i ever will see.

[kingoftherapids]

i think more than a surface issue, it is post dubai lag. he seemed to get it together in the back half of the pacific classic, but to me it is more impressive what gun runner has done since coming back over. he has shipped and run at 9 different tracks in about 20 months and has run over the same surface twice in a row  a grand total of twice.

here are the last ten races.

Saratoga                    8/5/2017   
Churchill Downs    6/17/2017
Meydan Racecourse    3/25/2017       
Oaklawn Park            2/20/2017       
Churchill Downs    11/25/2016
Santa Anita            11/4/2016
Parx Racing            9/24/2016   
Saratoga                    8/27/2016
Monmouth Park          7/31/2016   
Churchill Downs    6/18/2016    

[HogFanInBryant]

Yes. and that race was on the biggest stage in the world with a full field and the lone female against a bunch of older males. was the most impressive losing effort i ever will see.

Agreed!

[ghostzapper]

Being the best horse in the world at the moment. On their best days, Arrogate is clearly better, but he's no where near his best right now.

So, basically, your opinion.  Nothing measurable like final time or speed figures.  At some point, you should learn what a speed figure measures and how it is caculated.  Because if you did, you would know that GR hasn't yet run a race as fast as the top 2 finishers in the P Classic. 

[ghostzapper]

i think more than a surface issue, it is post dubai lag. he seemed to get it together in the back half of the pacific classic, but to me it is more impressive what gun runner has done since coming back over. he has shipped and run at 9 different tracks in about 20 months and has run over the same surface twice in a row  a grand total of twice.

here are the last ten races.

Saratoga                    8/5/2017   
Churchill Downs    6/17/2017
Meydan Racecourse    3/25/2017       
Oaklawn Park            2/20/2017       
Churchill Downs    11/25/2016
Santa Anita            11/4/2016
Parx Racing            9/24/2016   
Saratoga                    8/27/2016
Monmouth Park          7/31/2016   
Churchill Downs    6/18/2016

No doubt GR is a talented horse.  Maybe he explodes to new heights in the BC Classic.  But, based on pps, he's maxxed at a 112 and the Classic is going to have horses who run faster than that, including Arrogate in his last race at Dmr. 

[jdelo77]

Speed figures aren't everything ...just saying

[userpick]

So, basically, your opinion.  Nothing measurable like final time or speed figures.  At some point, you should learn what a speed figure measures and how it is caculated.  Because if you did, you would know that GR hasn't yet run a race as fast as the top 2 finishers in the P Classic. 

What would I know?

[ghostzapper]

Speed figures aren't everything ...just saying

Nobody said they were.  But they measure more accurately than anything else humans have developed how fast horses ran a race that allows for comparison with other horses' races, including those run at other tracks.  There are always ways to discount them.  But, when a horseplayer tells me horse x would have buried horse y in arace, and horse x has never run a race as fast as horse y (including the horses' most recent performances), it's appropriate to throw the bs flag.  Give me something concrete to support the notion that GR would have buried Arrogate based on Saturday's race.

[ghostzapper]

What would I know?

I don't know.  Have never spent a day handicapping with you at the track.  If it's your gut feeling, fine.  But That's not a compelling argument that GR is clearly the best horse right now.

[userpick]

I don't know.  Have never spent a day handicapping with you at the track.  If it's your gut feeling, fine.  But That's not a compelling argument that GR is clearly the best horse right now.

Well I can tell you what I do know. One of my closest friends is employed by DRF and makes BSF's for several tracks. I also know he doesn't even implement them into his handicapping. The next time you hear a trainer talking about a Beyer figure let me know.

[ghostzapper]

That's just not true.  I know all of the Beyer caculators and none are employed by DRF. 

[ghostzapper]

Andy set up his own team of calculators, primarily Mark Hopkins and Randy Moss.  The calculators are employed by him, not DRF.  There isn't one of his calculators who believes the system is voodoo.  You might find disagreements about figs within the group, but nobody who calculates them and then thinks the system is rubbish.

[ghostzapper]

Well I can tell you what I do know. One of my closest friends is employed by DRF and makes BSF's for several tracks. I also know he doesn't even implement them into his handicapping. The next time you hear a trainer talking about a Beyer figure let me know.

Tom Amoss? 

[userpick]

Tom Amoss? 

Tom Amoss is known for being a major believer in thorograph and uses it religiously to claim horses.

[ghostzapper]

He claimed two for me and Thoroughgraph was involved in neither.  Even Thoroughgraph numbers are speed figures adjusted for weight and trip.  I don't care if you or Tom or anyone else likes some speed figure system over another, it's still a system designed to compare final times taking out the track variant.  Explain to me how any of those systems would support the argument that GR waxes Arrogate last Saturday.

[userpick]

He claimed two for me and Thoroghgraph was involved in neither.  Even Thorograph numbers are speed figures adjusted for weight and trip.  I don't care if you or Tom or anyone else likes some speed figure system over another, it's still a system designed to compare final times taking out the track variant.  Explain to me how any of those systems would support the argument that GR waxes Arrogate last Saturday.

First of all, I'll never believe Tom Amoss claimed any horse without using Thorograph or Ragozin.

Second, I don't care about any speed figure when it comes to that level of a horse. Speed figures told me Always Dreaming had no chance in the Florida derby and it allowed him to go off 5-2 and I made the biggest win bet of my life. Zenyatta was slow on paper in the BC Classic and she won. If speed figures are a players primary betting tool, that will be a losing player over the long run.

[ghostzapper]

First of all, I'll never believe Tom Amoss claimed any horse without using Thorograph or Ragozin.

Second, I don't care about any speed figure when it comes to that level of a horse. Speed figures told me Always Dreaming had no chance in the Florida derby and it allowed him to go off 5-2 and I made the biggest win bet of my life. Zenyatta was slow on paper in the BC Classic and she won. If speed figures are a players primary betting tool, that will be a losing player over the long run.

If you know Tom, I'll tell you the two horses and you can ask him.  He'll tell you Thoroughgraph wasn't involved.  I directed both claims off of Beyers and works.

Speed figures did not tell you Always Dreaming couldn't win the Fla Derby.  Your interpretation of those figures did.  The fact that a horse has not run as fast a Beyer as another horse does not mean that horse cannot beat the other horse, especially where 3 year olds are involved.   You seem to always try to reduce speed figure handicapping to simply finding the higher number, when all it involves is using the number as a starting point.

[ghostzapper]

Gun Runner may have finally exceeded "current" Arrogate on the Beyer scale:  likely a 115 today. 

[userpick]

Gun Runner may have finally exceeded "current" Arrogate on the Beyer scale:  likely a 115 today.

He's a monster

[cbhawg03]

Hey may have finally huh?

[HogFanInBryant]

Gun Runner may have finally exceeded "current" Arrogate on the Beyer scale:  likely a 115 today. 

He didn't seem to ever have drawn a deep breath either...wow!

[ghostzapper]

Hey may have finally huh?

Yeah.  By half a length.  When Arrogate runs his race, Gun Runner is a second place horse. 

[kingoftherapids]

For kicks and giggles:
Arrogate's career high Equibase is 126.
Gun Runner is 131.

That being said, I think the most impressive performance i've seen from the two was in dubai. I think the body of work for gun runner is about to pass up the body of work from arrogate. his last year has been nothing short of ridiculous. coming out of dubai and improving hasn't ever happened that i know of.

[userpick]

For kicks and giggles:
Arrogate's career high Equibase is 126.
Gun Runner is 131.

That being said, I think the most impressive performance i've seen from the two was in dubai. I think the body of work for gun runner is about to pass up the body of work from arrogate. his last year has been nothing short of ridiculous. coming out of dubai and improving hasn't ever happened that i know of.

A higher TimeformUS figure as well.

[cbhawg03]

While you two get it, he doesn't get it cause those BSF are the same for Arrogate.  Arrogate running the same figures and still better than Gun Runner yet you can obviously tell he hasn't been the same horse the last couple of races.

Songbird, running same figures but you can tell that something wasn't right, and what happened? She was retired.  Not saying Arrogate should be retired but you can keep running same BSF meanwhile the fork can keep declining. 

Gun Runner would demolish Arrogate based off their past couple of races, can that change? Yes and we will have to endure another BSF lecture unfortunately, but if Gun Runner wins then he somehow just kept improving.  It's really useless conversation

[ghostzapper]

While you two get it, he doesn't get it cause those BSF are the same for Arrogate.  Arrogate running the same figures and still better than Gun Runner yet you can obviously tell he hasn't been the same horse the last couple of races.

Songbird, running same figures but you can tell that something wasn't right, and what happened? She was retired.  Not saying Arrogate should be retired but you can keep running same BSF meanwhile the fork can keep declining. 

Gun Runner would demolish Arrogate based off their past couple of races, can that change? Yes and we will have to endure another BSF lecture unfortunately, but if Gun Runner wins then he somehow just kept improving.  It's really useless conversation

What in the hell do you use to support the conclusion that Gun Runner would demolish Arrogate right now? 

[ghostzapper]

Gun Runner may be improving but it isn't by leaps and bounds.  Arrogate has declined off of his last 2 races of last year and his first 2 races of this year.  But the last race wasn't such a substantial regression off that form so as to suggest he can't make the slight improvement needed to recapture it.  And, unlike Gun Runner, Arrogate had to try and run down fast horses when he lost.   Saying Gun Runner would demolish Arrogate based on their last 2 races is just your opinion based on your eyeballing the races. 

[cbhawg03]

Gun Runner may be improving but it isn't by leaps and bounds.  Arrogate has declined off of his last 2 races of last year and his first 2 races of this year.  But the last race wasn't such a substantial regression off that form so as to suggest he can't make the slight improvement needed to recapture it.  And, unlike Gun Runner, Arrogate had to try and run down fast horses when he lost.   Saying Gun Runner would demolish Arrogate based on their last 2 races is just your opinion based on your eyeballing the races.

Yes, something you apparently cannot do.  You ever stop and think, man everybody can see this but me and there is a reason?  Everyone can see that Arrogate last two efforts have been under par meanwhile you keep on with BSFs.   Was Songbird not regressing as well but running same BSF? Oh that's right, Songbird destroys your BSF argument.

I'm done, more important things to do than argue with a blind brick wall.   

P.S. Arrogate had to run down fast horses when he lost? That may be signature line worthy material right there. One of the funniest things ever posted around here.  A mule would have been considered fast enough two back, he spit the bit and couldn't even hit the board, dude he literally couldn't chase down the tortoise that day, but yet he was chasing down fast horses. 

[ghostzapper]

Yes, something you apparently cannot do.  You ever stop and think, man everybody can see this but me and there is a reason?  Everyone can see that Arrogate last two efforts have been under par meanwhile you keep on with BSFs.   Was Songbird not regressing as well but running same BSF? Oh that's right, Songbird destroys your BSF argument.

I'm done, more important things to do than argue with a blind brick wall.   

P.S. Arrogate had to run down fast horses when he lost? That may be signature line worthy material right there. One of the funniest things ever posted around here.  A mule would have been considered fast enough two back, he spit the bit and couldn't even hit the board, dude he literally couldn't chase down the tortoise that day, but yet he was chasing down fast horses.

Typical response from someone who wouldn't know an objective measure of a horse's race if it bit him in the ass.  I get it.  You think GR ran 5 lengths faster than Arrogate (I'm assuming five lengths would constitute "demolishing" in your world) because it looked that way to you. 

I am not arguing that Arrogate ran a good race first one back from Dubai.  It was a clunker.  But his second race was an improvement, one that hundreds of horses at this Del Mar meet showed they needed to approach their best form.  Improve similarly in the BC Classic - 3rd race of a form cycle - and he will beat GR, just as he has every other time they've met. 

The signature line is your ridiculous statement that GR would demolish Arrogate right now.  Of course you can't back that up with anything other than "I know."   As for my statement about Arrogate's competition in his last 2 races, I know how fast the winners of those races ran and GR hasn't faced any horse that ran that fast in any of his CD or SAR races since Dubai. 

Arrogate may run another 114 in the BC and, if he does, he will lose.  For GR to "demolish" him in that situation, he's got to run 5 lengths faster than he has ever run in his life.  Can he do it? Maybe.  I'll tip my hat to him if he does.  But I'm not buying the demolition theory until I see some objective evidence it's true.

[songofthesword]

Churchill in the classic


This is Ravens pass /henrythenavigator / curling all over again. Literally down to the all time leading money earner who will be over bet

Run to the window. Churchill

[cbhawg03]

Yeah.  By half a length.  When Arrogate runs his race, Gun Runner is a second place horse.

When he runs his race? He ran hus race and got trounced.  Take those BSF and find the nearest trash can. 

Oh Arrogate is trending to run a big one in Classic, blah blah blah.  He got his butt whooped like you were told and Arrogate hasn't ran the same in last 3 and you ignore that cause some BSF.

[cbhawg03]

Typical response from someone who wouldn't know an objective measure of a horse's race if it bit him in the ass.  I get it.  You think GR ran 5 lengths faster than Arrogate (I'm assuming five lengths would constitute "demolishing" in your world) because it looked that way to you. 

I am not arguing that Arrogate ran a good race first one back from Dubai.  It was a clunker.  But his second race was an improvement, one that hundreds of horses at this Del Mar meet showed they needed to approach their best form.  Improve similarly in the BC Classic - 3rd race of a form cycle - and he will beat GR, just as he has every other time they've met. 

The signature line is your ridiculous statement that GR would demolish Arrogate right now.  Of course you can't back that up with anything other than "I know."   As for my statement about Arrogate's competition in his last 2 races, I know how fast the winners of those races ran and GR hasn't faced any horse that ran that fast in any of his CD or SAR races since Dubai. 

Arrogate may run another 114 in the BC and, if he does, he will lose.  For GR to "demolish" him in that situation, he's got to run 5 lengths faster than he has ever run in his life.  Can he do it? Maybe.  I'll tip my hat to him if he does.  But I'm not buying the demolition theory until I see some objective evidence it's true.

Typical response from a guy that wouldn't know an objective measure if it him me in the ....  Well explain one thing to me, how in the world did everyone know there was so many questions around Arrogate except you? How did your eyes not tell you that he has only went backwards since Dubai while GR had only went forward. 

Like I said months ago, GR would demolish him and did just that. 

That's a freaking race horse and I don't need BSF to prove it. I think you got your objective evidence today.

[ghostzapper]

Glad all of you saw Arrogate's failure in his 115, and hat's off to you for knowing he'd run worse than that today.  For the record, Arrogate didn't get a dime of my money.  And, yeah, Gun Runner likely stepped his game up even further than his last race so he may have moved closer to Arrogate's best level.  Would be nice to have that with Arrogate retiring. 

As for Beyers, I will keep using them because they make me money.  Let your eagle eyes take you where they may.