What Happened to the Advantage of an Open Date or a Lesser Opponent?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Seems like it used to be that having either a scheduled open date or a game that was scheduled with a lesser opponent prior to conference games or games with other similarly positioned teams from other conferences, was a good thing and offered a team an opportunity for extra preparation and perhaps odds of greater success in advance of what was viewed as an important game.

In looking at the 2014 SEC team schedules for the SEC that paradigm has either shifted or otherwise, maybe because of the competition level across the board in the SEC, it doesn't seem to have as much meaning, or at least not as often as perhaps it did in the past.

It does however, appear that it still carries more potential value for other major P-5 Conference teams than it does in the SEC.

Here is a list of the SEC teams and the top 2 teams from each of the other P-5 Conferences and their W-L records, the averaged points for and against in those games and the average point difference  vs. teams that they played following a true open date or a game that was scheduled after a game with a non P-5 opponent.

Teams belonging to conferences with higher levels of competition probably experienced lesser success, but keep in mind how this level of success or lack thereof can now effect potential consideration for the play-off rankings.

School                          W         L          PF         PA            Point Diff
Alabama                        3          2         33.8      28.6                 5.2
Arkansas                       3          3         24.7      16.8                 7.9
Auburn                          3          2         35.6     29.0                  6.6
LSU                              1          4         29.0     28.6                  0.4
Ole Miss                        2          2         16.8     23.0                 -6.2
Miss St                         3          2         36.2     33.0                  3.2
TX A&M                        3          1         34.5     31.5                  3.0
Georgia                         2          3         30.2     30.4                -0.2
Missouri                        2          2          23.5     27.2                -3.8
Tennessee                    2          3          28.0     29.4                -1.4
S. Carolina                    3          2          27.4     30.6                -3.2
Ohio State                    4          1          42.6     26.2                16.4
Wisconsin                     2          1          33.3     19.3                 14.0
Oregon                         4          2          38.5     26.8                 11.7
Arizona                         2          1          36.7     35.7                  1.0
Baylor                           3          1          49.8     28.0                 21.8
TCU                             4           0          39.3    13.3                 26.0
Florida St                      2          1           28.3    35.7                 -7.4
Clemson                        2          1           30.3    16.3                 14.0

[MuskogeeHogFan]

To make my point, let me illustrate further in order to advance the conversation.

Check out Alabama. They started out with a 33-23 victory over W. Virginia and then had 2 weeks back to back to back playing the likes of Florida Atlantic and So. Miss before playing and dispatching Florida  42-21. They followed that with yet another open date prior to playing at Ole Miss, where they lost 17-23. That's a lot of time for preparation to lose to someone that you expected to be a tough opponent.

After yet another Open Date, they nearly lost to LSU having to go to OT to win 20-13. A win by a narrow margin after having had time to recuperate and plan their attack.

After a late season game against weak W. Carolina Alabama won against Auburn, but not exactly in dominating and characteristic fashion, having won 55-44.

And after 3-1/2 weeks with which to prepare, lost to Ohio State by 42-35 in the first round of the play-off.

Did open dates or games with lesser opponents prior to key games really help them to be more prepared? It would seem not.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Here's another example.


Look at LSU. They opened up like gangbusters against Wisconsin beating them 28-24.

Then they proceeded to have what equated to two open weeks against the likes of Sam Houston State and La Monroe, while preparing for Miss State. A game they lost to the tune of  29-34.

They immediately had another open week with New Mexico State and followed that by being beaten the next week to tune of 7-41 by Auburn. Embarrassing.

Their next open date came between their 10-7 win at Ole Miss and their game against Alabama, which they lost in 1 OT, 13-20.

They did benefit from the open date between the Arkansas game that they lost 0-17 and the A&M game as they won that game 23-17.

But then with a 4 week open date to prepare they lost to Notre Dame in their bowl game 28-31.

[Smokehouse]

I haven't felt any extra confidence in the Hogs coming off of a bye in years (even predating the post-Petrino morose when I didn't have confidence before any game). In fact, it seems more like the Hogs have lost more post-bye game than they've won in the past decade.

When you reach a certain level of competition in the conference, I imagine you'd have to stack a lot of advantages (post-bye, at home, other team just came off a physical game) before it moves the win expectancy very much.

[ChicoHog]

I'm still not a fan of teams playing cupcakes in November.  UF, SCarolina, Bama, Auburn have all played directional schools before their last game.  heck some of them finish their conference season 2 weeks before the rest of the teams.  Just don't think that is right.  Play your non-conf games early, maybe one in October at the latest and then play conf games only.  That's what the Pac 12, big 10, Big 12 all do.    I like our schedule this year as we are following that pattern playing 3 non-conf games to start the year.  I think all the SEC teams should do that. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I'm still not a fan of teams playing cupcakes in November.  UF, SCarolina, Bama, Auburn have all played directional schools before their last game.  heck some of them finish their conference season 2 weeks before the rest of the teams.  Just don't think that is right.  Play your non-conf games early, maybe one in October at the latest and then play conf games only.  That's what the Pac 12, big 10, Big 12 all do.    I like our schedule this year as we are following that pattern playing 3 non-conf games to start the year.  I think all the SEC teams should do that. 

The "theory" is that spacing these games out, throughout a season, is supposed to offer teams an opportunity to heal and recuperate as they traverse a tough conference schedule and perhaps offer them an opportunity to be more competitive. In theory, it makes sense.

But then you see another example in Georgia. They opened with Clemson and won 45-21. They followed that with an open date prior to playing at S. Carolina, yet they lost 35-38.

They followed that with a game against Troy (3-9 LY) prior to facing Tennessee at home and narrowly escaped with a 35-32 win.

The next 3 weeks they played well beating Vandy, Missouri and Arkansas by a combined total of 128-49.

Then they had another open date prior to playing Florida in the Cocktail Party game where they were beaten 20-38. What happened to the value of that open date?

They essentially had another open date by playing Charelston So. the week prior to facing Georgia Tech, but it seemed to do little good given that GT beat them 24-30.

Just seems like open dates and games against softer opponents should have more value for teams, but you can't prove it by the results in the SEC.

[DeltaBoy]

I say scholarship limits and the over all improvement of HS football equaled the playing field even more than before.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I say scholarship limits and the over all improvement of HS football equaled the playing field even more than before.

I'm sure there are a good many things that contribute, but one thing does appear to be true, the value of open dates and weekends against softer opponents doesn't seem to have as much value these days (in the SEC at least) as it once seemed to have.

[phadedhawg]

I'm happy to catch good teams before they hit their stride.  A team in our position could conceivably benefit from that more than an Alabama. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I'm happy to catch good teams before they hit their stride.  A team in our position could conceivably benefit from that more than an Alabama. 

The second half of the season kinda let the cat out of the bag. Any team that takes us lightly at any point of the season going forward may be making a critical mistake. As far as catching teams before they get going, that isn't going to win the West. We are pretty much going to have to play "lights out" from start to finish and if another team stumbles, great. If not, we are still going to have to meet the challenge and put them away.

I'm not sure that we are at that point just yet, but I feel confident that we will be, at some point over the next couple of years.

[Pigsknuckles]

Been several past threads speaking to lackluster performance following a bye week, or after playing a weak OOC opponent. On the other hand, I remember Bama, a few years back, loudly complaining that their schedule had them playing multiple strong opponents who had bye weeks prior to playing them. I guess it depends on whose virtual ox is being gored. I am still of the quite unscientific opinion that while bye weeks and rent-a-wins may allow our team extra recovery and tune up opportunities, we tend to come out flat following those respites.

[DeltaBoy]

Been several past threads speaking to lackluster performance following a bye week, or after playing a weak OOC opponent. On the other hand, I remember Bama, a few years back, loudly complaining that their schedule had them playing multiple strong opponents who had bye weeks prior to playing them. I guess it depends on whose virtual ox is being gored. I am still of the quite unscientific opinion that while bye weeks and rent-a-wins may allow our team extra recovery and tune up opportunities, we tend to come out flat following those respites.

Yep it seems that way across the nation.

[hogcard1964]

Here's another example.


Look at LSU. They opened up like gangbusters against Wisconsin beating them 28-24.

Then they proceeded to have what equated to two open weeks against the likes of Sam Houston State and La Monroe, while preparing for Miss State. A game they lost to the tune of  29-34.

They immediately had another open week with New Mexico State and followed that by being beaten the next week to tune of 7-41 by Auburn. Embarrassing.

Their next open date came between their 10-7 win at Ole Miss and their game against Alabama, which they lost in 1 OT, 13-20.

They did benefit from the open date between the Arkansas game that they lost 0-17 and the A&M game as they won that game 23-17.

But then with a 4 week open date to prepare they lost to Notre Dame in their bowl game 28-31.

What do think will be the outcome of the Bama/Wisconsin game?  Think Bama steamrolls them?

[ZERO]

What do think will be the outcome of the Bama/Wisconsin game?  Think Bama steamrolls them?

I'm kind of pissed off about how easy Wisconsin's schedule is in '15. They don't play Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, or Penn State. Their only two tough games are vs. Alabama and @Nebraska. POSSIBLY @Minnesota, if Minnesota continues to improve under Jerry Kill.

[hogcard1964]

I'm kind of pissed off about how easy Wisconsin's schedule is in '15. They don't play Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, or Penn State. Their only two tough games are vs. Alabama and @Nebraska. POSSIBLY @Minnesota, if Minnesota continues to improve under Jerry Kill.

Historically they've always played one of the easiest schedule in the Big 10.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Been several past threads speaking to lackluster performance following a bye week, or after playing a weak OOC opponent. On the other hand, I remember Bama, a few years back, loudly complaining that their schedule had them playing multiple strong opponents who had bye weeks prior to playing them. I guess it depends on whose virtual ox is being gored. I am still of the quite unscientific opinion that while bye weeks and rent-a-wins may allow our team extra recovery and tune up opportunities, we tend to come out flat following those respites.

"We" aren't the only ones in the SEC, as illustrated below. But the benefit after an open date/game against a weaker non P-5 opponent, may not be as great in the SEC with the competition level being what it is in most weeks of the season, as it is in other P-5 conferences.

Of course, other conferences playing weaker schedules, aren't perfect either.

2014 season after open dates/games against non P-5 opponents:
ALA 3-2
ARK 3-3
AUB 3-2
LSU 1-4
MIS 2-2
MSU 3-2
A&M 3-1
GEO 2-3
MIZ 2-2
TEN 2-3
USC 3-2

Ohio St 4-1
Wisc     2-1
Oregon  4-2
Arizona  2-1
Baylor    3-1
TCU      4-0
Fla St    2-1
Clemson 2-1