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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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McKdaddy

Quote from: MS_HogFan on November 02, 2015, 02:16:20 pm

That might be the worst week I've seen from you. Lost your mojo?

It happens.  We post our picks in plain view in this thread, but nobody likes to be called-out for a bad week.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

onebadrubi

Quote from: MS_HogFan on November 02, 2015, 02:16:20 pm

That might be the worst week I've seen from you. Lost your mojo?

Damn man, where is the human decency?  Pretty low there, by it's hogville so to be expected. 

I also had a bad weekend after a huge week.  Cashed huge on the world series but lost it all over the weekend on football.  Hammered the Jets, Jets 2nd half, stanford late game saturday night and the packers. 


 

Dropkick


hogsanity

Quote from: Dropkick on November 02, 2015, 04:09:18 pm
Any ideas tonight? Colts maybe?

I took panthers -5 and the game un 46. Looks like the weather may be really bad, so if the Panthers get a lead they can eat large chuncks of time with Newton and the backs. Also played a couple teasers, usually dont, Newton under 19 completions and under 231 passing yards.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

jkstock04

Quote from: hogsanity on November 02, 2015, 04:39:46 pm
I took panthers -5 and the game un 46. Looks like the weather may be really bad, so if the Panthers get a lead they can eat large chuncks of time with Newton and the backs. Also played a couple teasers, usually dont, Newton under 19 completions and under 231 passing yards.
I was gonna go heavy on the over til I looked at the weather forecast.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: MS_HogFan on November 02, 2015, 02:16:20 pm

That might be the worst week I've seen from you. Lost your mojo?


Freaking NFL.  I hammered college then gave most back.
Let's make some waves.

widespreadsooie


LZH

Here's one you guys who are pros can skip over.  But back in the day when bookies were all we had, I stuck to the back page of the ADG.  I'd watch for games like OU -32 over Kansas...and I'd load the wagon on OU (when I say load the wagon, I mean $500-$1000 at most).  You knew they'd cover.

When I'd go collect, I'd say "Cuz, I hate to keep taking your money like this".  And he'd say "Mike, damn near everyone else goes the other way, I'm doing fine."  Greed, it has to be greed.  I haven't bet in several years, but if I did, I'd still go for the big boys vs. the cowtown teams and load the wagon that they'd cover.

Anyone else do this with any success?

onebadrubi

Quote from: LZH on November 02, 2015, 05:45:29 pm
Here's one you guys who are pros can skip over.  But back in the day when bookies were all we had, I stuck to the back page of the ADG.  I'd watch for games like OU -32 over Kansas...and I'd load the wagon on OU (when I say load the wagon, I mean $500-$1000 at most).  You knew they'd cover.

When I'd go collect, I'd say "Cuz, I hate to keep taking your money like this".  And he'd say "Mike, damn near everyone else goes the other way, I'm doing fine."  Greed, it has to be greed.  I haven't bet in several years, but if I did, I'd still go for the big boys vs. the cowtown teams and load the wagon that they'd cover.

Anyone else do this with any success?

I saw a stat yesterday on the UCLA game.  UCLA spread was like -26 this past weekend and like 92% or something absurd was on UCLA spread.  They had a hard time winning by a measly 4. 

Athletes now a days don't get up for those games.  Few coaches can get his players to destroy those type of teams because they slack off in game prep and then also think they can give 75% in the game. 

Saban's cover percentage against the little schools is awful. 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: LZH on November 02, 2015, 05:45:29 pm
Here's one you guys who are pros can skip over.  But back in the day when bookies were all we had, I stuck to the back page of the ADG.  I'd watch for games like OU -32 over Kansas...and I'd load the wagon on OU (when I say load the wagon, I mean $500-$1000 at most).  You knew they'd cover.

When I'd go collect, I'd say "Cuz, I hate to keep taking your money like this".  And he'd say "Mike, damn near everyone else goes the other way, I'm doing fine."  Greed, it has to be greed.  I haven't bet in several years, but if I did, I'd still go for the big boys vs. the cowtown teams and load the wagon that they'd cover.

Anyone else do this with any success?


I will at times. Depends on the team. More early in the year.  You get a Baylor with a weak schedule they have to do everything they can to open eyes of voters. 
Let's make some waves.

onebadrubi

How about that ref screw job last night?  Mnf is becoming more and more questionable.  Their are some crazy conspiracy theorist out there on Monday night football and why not to bet it because the refs will do everything they can to keep it from being a blowout.  They did exactly that last night

hogsanity

Quote from: onebadrubi on November 03, 2015, 08:09:59 am
How about that ref screw job last night?  Mnf is becoming more and more questionable.  Their are some crazy conspiracy theorist out there on Monday night football and why not to bet it because the refs will do everything they can to keep it from being a blowout.  They did exactly that last night

The holding call on Olsen when Newton ran for the 1st down up 10 with 5 mins to go ( when the defender had both hands inside Olsen's collar and Olsen had both hands in side the defenders shoulders, was the key call. Without that, Car either runs another 2:30, at least, off the clock, or Indy has to burn all of it's to's then.

The play where they called the indy guy out of bounds was meaningless, they still had plenty of time to spike it.

As for a blow out, Car is not going to blow anyone out, they are not built for that. 
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

MS_HogFan

Quote from: McKdaddy on November 02, 2015, 02:57:17 pm
It happens.  We post our picks in plain view in this thread, but nobody likes to be called-out for a bad week.

Quote from: onebadrubi on November 02, 2015, 03:58:36 pm
Damn man, where is the human decency?  Pretty low there, by it's hogville so to be expected. 

I also had a bad weekend after a huge week.  Cashed huge on the world series but lost it all over the weekend on football.  Hammered the Jets, Jets 2nd half, stanford late game saturday night and the packers. 




I didn't mean for it to be taken that way. I like Jeff. He has given me advice through PM before. He is just usually so good.

Jeff I am sorry if this came across as some kind of jab at you.

I read more post less
SOOIE

 

McKdaddy

Quote from: MS_HogFan on November 03, 2015, 08:24:20 am

I didn't mean for it to be taken that way. I like Jeff. He has given me advice through PM before. He is just usually so good.

Jeff I am sorry if this came across as some kind of jab at you.



+1, you're a good man, MS
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

onebadrubi

Quote from: MS_HogFan on November 03, 2015, 08:24:20 am

I didn't mean for it to be taken that way. I like Jeff. He has given me advice through PM before. He is just usually so good.

Jeff I am sorry if this came across as some kind of jab at you.

I read more post less

Haha well good to see you are better than 99% of Hogville and can comeback and say that.  We all do it sometimes, it's just part of communication on a forum rather than in person, things don't always seem the way you meant them. 

Stay around, post more. 

onebadrubi

Quote from: hogsanity on November 03, 2015, 08:16:13 am
The holding call on Olsen when Newton ran for the 1st down up 10 with 5 mins to go ( when the defender had both hands inside Olsen's collar and Olsen had both hands in side the defenders shoulders, was the key call. Without that, Car either runs another 2:30, at least, off the clock, or Indy has to burn all of it's to's then.

The play where they called the indy guy out of bounds was meaningless, they still had plenty of time to spike it.

As for a blow out, Car is not going to blow anyone out, they are not built for that.

I don't think the out of bounds mattered that much in hindsight, but in game time it was HUGE.  Indy would not have had time for the last two end zone shots, which amounted to nothing but at the time you didn't kno wthat.  Also, the weird thing, the ref in position motioned with his left hand to keep the clock going then was signaled from a ref not in position to stop it.  either way this call wasn't one I was speaking about. 

The two blatant blown made up calls were the Olsen PI at the drive in 2nd quarter and then the bs holding that was intended to stop that drive and give Indy the ball back.  Carolina had the team last night to blow out the colts.  The refs kept the colts alive.

*Something I was told by a guy that I know that is huge into sports "investing" is to never bet more than your minimum bet on a primetime game unless it's playoffs, finals, super bowl, or world series.  Weird things happen when you give NFL, MLB, NBA, etc the only sport on TV and they need to capture an audience and hold them.  I'm anti conspiracy theory type but some things just don't pass the smell test. 

hogsanity

Quote from: onebadrubi on November 03, 2015, 10:09:21 am
I don't think the out of bounds mattered that much in hindsight, but in game time it was HUGE.  Indy would not have had time for the last two end zone shots, which amounted to nothing but at the time you didn't kno wthat.  Also, the weird thing, the ref in position motioned with his left hand to keep the clock going then was signaled from a ref not in position to stop it.  either way this call wasn't one I was speaking about. 

The two blatant blown made up calls were the Olsen PI at the drive in 2nd quarter and then the bs holding that was intended to stop that drive and give Indy the ball back.  Carolina had the team last night to blow out the colts.  The refs kept the colts alive.

*Something I was told by a guy that I know that is huge into sports "investing" is to never bet more than your minimum bet on a primetime game unless it's playoffs, finals, super bowl, or world series.  Weird things happen when you give NFL, MLB, NBA, etc the only sport on TV and they need to capture an audience and hold them.  I'm anti conspiracy theory type but some things just don't pass the smell test. 

I've been so bad on the nfl this year I usually only do half or even a quarter what I would bet on a college game. I think it just that the difference in a good NFL team and a bad one is so thin that there are few real mismatches. 
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

WinnerWinner

Quote from: hogsanity on November 03, 2015, 10:19:23 am
I've been so bad on the nfl this year I usually only do half or even a quarter what I would bet on a college game. I think it just that the difference in a good NFL team and a bad one is so thin that there are few real mismatches.


Best way to bet NFL... Follow Jeff, he always come out on top yr end yr out or pick the team you think will cover, then change to the other team...  I am serious.. I typically will look at the NFL line and pick the team then change to the other team..  It hits a lot more then when first pic

onebadrubi

Quote from: WinnerWinner on November 03, 2015, 11:58:32 am

Best way to bet NFL... Follow Jeff, he always come out on top yr end yr out or pick the team you think will cover, then change to the other team...  I am serious.. I typically will look at the NFL line and pick the team then change to the other team..  It hits a lot more then when first pic

If you follow a lot of the high rollers the will use this strategy more often than you think.  When they hit a slump, they will all of a sudden write down there normal picks and flip them.  They will then ride that till it starts to slump again and flip back. 


onebadrubi

I absolutely killed it in baseball this year and then killed it again in the world series but no where near how this guy did. 

Check this out. 

http://lasvegassun.com/vegasdeluxe/2015/nov/02/vegas-dave-wins-25-million-from-100000-bet-royals-/

WinnerWinner

Quote from: onebadrubi on November 03, 2015, 01:35:10 pm
I absolutely killed it in baseball this year and then killed it again in the world series but no where near how this guy did. 

Check this out. 

http://lasvegassun.com/vegasdeluxe/2015/nov/02/vegas-dave-wins-25-million-from-100000-bet-royals-/





Now that would be nice...

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: MS_HogFan on November 03, 2015, 08:24:20 am

I didn't mean for it to be taken that way. I like Jeff. He has given me advice through PM before. He is just usually so good.

Jeff I am sorry if this came across as some kind of jab at you.

I read more post less


I didn't take it in a bad way, and it was 100% accurate.  I was horrible in Sunday last week.
Let's make some waves.

MS_HogFan

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on November 03, 2015, 02:14:16 pm

I didn't take it in a bad way, and it was 100% accurate.  I was horrible in Sunday last week.

Good. This is probably the only thread in MMQB without some dic@head messing it up and I didn't want y'all to think I was that guy.

Back to lurking now.
SOOIE

SPAL


 

SPAL

This is how it goes for me sometimes.

Northern Illinois loses their starting QB and best wide receiver at toledo. Toledo has been solid all year. But tonight, when I invest in them, Phillip Ely looks like Ryan leaf and the receivers drop more than they catch and the defense looks more like Texas tech. Ridiculous really. Had I bet the other way, Toledo would have won by 3 scores.

onebadrubi

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 03, 2015, 10:40:21 pm
This is how it goes for me sometimes.

Northern Illinois loses their starting QB and best wide receiver at toledo. Toledo has been solid all year. But tonight, when I invest in them, Phillip Ely looks like Ryan leaf and the receivers drop more than they catch and the defense looks more like Texas tech. Ridiculous really. Had I bet the other way, Toledo would have won by 3 scores.

A guy on another non razorback forum I read a lot on called this exact thing.  Said MAC early week games are notorious for these types of performances. Quite strange until he pulled out the evidence of past history. 

Frustrating because after my MNF whoppin I took some Toledo ML action, I was lucky enough to grab them for the 3Q -.5 to help some but still took a hit. 

widespreadsooie

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 03, 2015, 10:40:21 pm
This is how it goes for me sometimes.

Northern Illinois loses their starting QB and best wide receiver at toledo. Toledo has been solid all year. But tonight, when I invest in them, Phillip Ely looks like Ryan leaf and the receivers drop more than they catch and the defense looks more like Texas tech. Ridiculous really. Had I bet the other way, Toledo would have won by 3 scores.

Tuesday night MACtion shows no mercy.

hogsanity

I had been doing well on the Tues and Thur night games until last night. HAd Toledo -6.5 and the over at 62.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

SPAL


hogsanity

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 04, 2015, 03:50:55 pm
Ohio +21

you should do well, I have BG -20 and BG ov 44, so they will probably score about 30 and give up at least 14.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

jkstock04

I like Ohio +21. They are coming off a bye week and have some guys who were injuried coming back tonight.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

SPAL

Quote from: hogsanity on November 04, 2015, 04:02:51 pm
you should do well, I have BG -20 and BG ov 44, so they will probably score about 30 and give up at least 14.

Haha. Well, one of us will get off the mat tonight.

WILL CLINTON

Went 3-1 last week to take me to 27-23-4 overall for the year.

I was going to be on Bowling Green tonight, but I'm not sure now. 21 is a lot to lay, but Ohio gave up 28 earlier in the year to Idaho, and BG is a much stouter team than Idaho so I'm torn. Most likely won't be a bet for me.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

November 04, 2015, 07:30:05 pm #8933 Last Edit: November 06, 2015, 06:36:03 pm by WILL CLINTON
Well, I'm a sucker for mid-week football I guess.

6 pt teaser:
BG -15 & over 61

Bowling Green -20.5
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

onebadrubi

I had BG -4.5 1Q, -6.5 2Q and -11.5 1half.  Damn missed PAT from going 3-0.  Also had Ohio +21, just bought my way out of that in 2nd half bet plus a little.  I really wanted Bg team total over but it moved late and scared me off.  Wish I would have taken it now. 

Also adding basketball porn -7. That's golden states name by SVP since last year I'm rolling with it. 

DadVader1

November 04, 2015, 09:12:30 pm #8935 Last Edit: November 05, 2015, 09:07:36 am by DadVader1
Here's what I've done so far this week.  Two units each on:

Baylor -17
Temple -13.5 (h)
ULL -3.5
Iowa -6.5 (h)
NM St. +17
Idaho +10 (h)

I usually prefer to fade NM St. & Idaho, but they're getting enough points from not-so-great teams that I'll go along with the spreadsheets' leans.

Edit:  That's what I get for skipping a step (checking the injury report) ... NM St. is now down to their 3rd string Qb. 

SPAL

Will, I'm 0-5 since you declared me king of NCAA. You better do something to reverse this. Tell me I suck or something.

Junkyard Hog

Got Baylor -17 and MS State -8 tonight.

I think Baylor tries to make a statement after being left out of the top 4 and Mizzou sucks.

hogsanity

Quote from: Junkyard Hog on November 05, 2015, 10:57:13 am
Got Baylor -17 and MS State -8 tonight.

I think Baylor tries to make a statement after being left out of the top 4 and Mizzou sucks.

That Baylor game scares me. Yes KSu has been awful since they played TCU close, but Snyder knows how to get his defense ready, Baylor is starting a Tr Fr ( yes, I know very highly rated coming out of Hs ), and it is supposed to be really windy tonight too.

I will be taking MSu. Mizzu is wretched on offense.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

hogsanity

November 05, 2015, 11:41:29 am #8939 Last Edit: November 06, 2015, 08:13:10 am by hogsanity
tonight

ms st -7.5  W
buff -2       L
ap st -10    L
wmu-14.5   W
buf/kent ov 43.5   L
ball st/wmu ov 62 L
baylor/ksu un 67   W

all of that individual and in a parlay

also buf un 23 L
ksu un 25.5 W
wmu ov 38.5 W
mizzu un 17.5 W

People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

onebadrubi

Baylor Kstate reminds me last year of Auburn Kstate thursday night game.  The world was on Auburn, and Kstate covered. 

jkstock04

Quote from: hogsanity on November 05, 2015, 11:03:25 am
That Baylor game scares me. Yes KSu has been awful since they played TCU close, but Snyder knows how to get his defense ready, Baylor is starting a Tr Fr ( yes, I know very highly rated coming out of Hs ), and it is supposed to be really windy tonight too.

I will be taking MSu. Mizzu is wretched on offense.
One thing about Baylors new qb...he has some impressive numbers but all those numbers have come playing mop up duty. Tonight is his first start..on the road against a historically well coached team under Snyder.

I probably won't bet tonight, but if I had to I would take K State +17 based simply off the qb situation.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Junkyard Hog

Quote from: hogsanity on November 05, 2015, 11:03:25 am
That Baylor game scares me. Yes KSu has been awful since they played TCU close, but Snyder knows how to get his defense ready, Baylor is starting a Tr Fr ( yes, I know very highly rated coming out of Hs ), and it is supposed to be really windy tonight too.

I will be taking MSu. Mizzu is wretched on offense.

It scares me some too.  If it weren't for Snyder's ability to pull off some upsets I'd bet it a lot stronger.  I really think Baylor is just that much better......plus I'm hoping they're pissed off.

DadVader1

November 05, 2015, 02:38:10 pm #8943 Last Edit: November 06, 2015, 09:17:06 am by DadVader1
I added quite a few so will put them all here.  Two units each on:

Baylor -17
Temple -13.5 (h)
ULL -3.5
Iowa -6.5 (h)
NM St. +17
Idaho +10 (h)
MS St -8.5
TN -17
Ark +10.5
Purdue +5

One unit each on:

Kans +29.5
Stan -16
TX A&M -7


Edit:  I ran across a few more nice trends that like Purdue so added another unit to make that a 2 unit play.

hogsanity

Quote from: DadVader1 on November 05, 2015, 02:38:10 pm
I added quite a few so will put them all here.  Two units each on:

Baylor -17
Temple -13.5 (h)
ULL -3.5
Iowa -6.5 (h)
NM St. +17
Idaho +10 (h)
MS St -8.5
TN -17
Ark +10.5

One unit each on:
Purdue +5
Kans +29.5
Stan -16
TX A&M -7


going to see how I do tonight before I decide what I am going to do the rest of the weekend.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

widespreadsooie

Leans:

KY +14.5
IU +7
Cuse +14
Tulsa -17
OU -25
OK St +4.5
Pitt +8.5
Hogs +10.5

SPAL


Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

On Baylor -17 / 2 units
Cleveland and Cincy under 45.5
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: MS_HogFan on November 03, 2015, 02:38:43 pm
Good. This is probably the only thread in MMQB without some dic@head messing it up and I didn't want y'all to think I was that guy.

Back to lurking now.

No worries buddy.
Let's make some waves.

SPAL

My only regret was not playing more. I made a lot of coin on ms state. This was the bet of the century.