All things considered and don't be a homer...(Ark/TXA&M)

[HogFanInBryant]

Which football program will be overall more accomplished when you look at the next 3 years all things considered...Arkansas or Texas A&M?

I'd say by the end of the 2017 season both us and A&M will have at least played in a BCS bowl...but not sure about anything above that (although I hope we are National Champs all 3 of these years LOL).

My only reason not to say our Hogs will be more accomplished is that Sumlin is a great offensive mind (although he can't get a decent defense it seems), they have taken over the state of Texas in recruiting, and the oil $ that program has access to is completely insane!

Thoughts?

[Augustus]

Agreed. Sumlin *is* a very good O-mind, and the addition of Chavis is very worrisome for the next few years. 

But, I also see Bielema, with what he's putting together, to make a run for the SEC as well.

I think it will be about even... I think both Hogs and A&M will contend for the SEC in the next 3 years.

The one thing is... A&M has to worry about the same thing we do... we both play in the toughest division in CFB.  Now, if you add in all other sports, over the next 3 years? (Basketball, baseball, Track, Gymnastics?) ...I think we excel over A&M, and it isn't even close.  (but, I know that wasn't your question  )

[Hawgvillain]

I follow aTm pretty closely (wife is an Aggie).  Until Sumlin finds a way to put some discipline into his players, I think their potential is capped.  If they couldn't make a BCS game with Manziel, Evans, and three eventual first rounders on the OL, why would they now? 

They have recruited well but retention has been so-so.  I think we are better this year, they might be better next year (while we are replacing our QB), and year 3 is a toss-up.  Looking at the three years combined, I'll give us the edge just because I think our approach is more sustainable over the longterm (based on retention, build from the lines out, and the chance Sumlin heads to the NFL).  But it's close...

[Augustus]

I follow aTm pretty closely (wife is an Aggie).  Until Sumlin finds a way to put some discipline into his players, I think their potential is capped.  If they couldn't make a BCS game with Manziel, Evans, and three eventual first rounders on the OL, why would they now? 

They have recruited well but retention has been so-so.  I think we are better this year, they might be better next year (while we are replacing our QB), and year 3 is a toss-up.  Looking at the three years combined, I'll give us the edge just because I think our approach is more sustainable over the longterm (based on retention, build from the lines out, and the chance Sumlin heads to the NFL).  But it's close...

that's a very good point about Sumlin & changing jobs... if he has good years, I see him leaving A&M.  If he has 7-8 win years (or worse), I see him getting replaced by the end of 3 years. 

[DLUXHOG]

The Aggies' win totals in SEC play have decreased from six to four to three during their first three seasons in the league...  continue to slide?

[Vildsvin]

A&M has been doing some pretty tough recruiting.. while both teams are definitely on the upward swing I think A&M probably ends up winning more games in the west than Arkansas does over the next three years.

[ZERO]

The BCS is no longer a thing, but I know what you mean. Personally, I'm pretty worried about A&M. They seem very volatile under Sumlin, so we never know exactly what we're going to get. I'll say this, if Chavis doesn't field them an acceptable defense in the next couple of years, then I don't think anyone can do it for them. I already borderline think it can't be done with that type of offense, I'm hopeful Chavis and Muschamp will prove me right.

I expect they'll be better than 8-5 this year, but it would be awesome if they went 7-6 and kept up the trend of Sumlin falling short of the previous year.

[CFB_Fanatic]

I follow aTm pretty closely (wife is an Aggie).  Until Sumlin finds a way to put some discipline into his players, I think their potential is capped.  If they couldn't make a BCS game with Manziel, Evans, and three eventual first rounders on the OL, why would they now? 

They have recruited well but retention has been so-so.  I think we are better this year, they might be better next year (while we are replacing our QB), and year 3 is a toss-up.  Looking at the three years combined, I'll give us the edge just because I think our approach is more sustainable over the longterm (based on retention, build from the lines out, and the chance Sumlin heads to the NFL).  But it's close...

We just gonna completely overlook the fact that CBB could head to the NFL too??

[redeye]

The BCS is no longer a thing, but I know what you mean. Personally, I'm pretty worried about A&M. They seem very volatile under Sumlin, so we never know exactly what we're going to get. I'll say this, if Chavis doesn't field them an acceptable defense in the next couple of years, then I don't think anyone can do it for them. I already borderline think it can't be done with that type of offense, I'm hopeful Chavis and Muschamp will prove me right.

I expect they'll be better than 8-5 this year, but it would be awesome if they went 7-6 and kept up the trend of Sumlin falling short of the previous year.

That pretty much sums it up for me, too.  The only thing I'd change is that Chavis will vastly improve their defense, but it will never be as good as he had at LSU.  That last part is important.

A&M will be improved and it seems like everyone's just beginning to realize this.  They scare me more then anyone else, but that's partly because I worry we'll be heavily favored and look bad if we lose.

[Inhogswetrust]

I follow aTm pretty closely (wife is an Aggie).  Until Sumlin finds a way to put some discipline into his players, I think their potential is capped.  If they couldn't make a BCS game with Manziel, Evans, and three eventual first rounders on the OL, why would they now? 

Different DC now...............

[Jek Tono Porkins]

Different DC now...............

I don't think he's going to make that much of a difference. DC's aren't miracle workers. Spread/hurry-up/any team that scores quickly is going to have trouble on D. It's not a scheme thing, it's not a talent thing, it's a simple math thing. More minutes on the field=more fatigue. You can have the most impenetrable defensive scheme ever designed by man but it's not going to make a difference if your players are gassed.

[OneTuskOverTheLine™]

Which football program will be overall more accomplished when you look at the next 3 years all things considered...Arkansas or Texas A&M?

I'd say by the end of the 2017 season both us and A&M will have at least played in a BCS bowl...but not sure about anything above that (although I hope we are National Champs all 3 of these years LOL).

My only reason not to say our Hogs will be more accomplished is that Sumlin is a great offensive mind (although he can't get a decent defense it seems), they have taken over the state of Texas in recruiting, and the oil $ that program has access to is completely insane!

Thoughts?

Why have they not ruled the world then..? You buying into the B.S.

[AugustaHog]

I like everything about where we are and where we are going better than TAMU.  I think Chavis is outstanding, but can't say that I'd take him over Robb Smith right now.  The only reason, I'd give the Aggies the edge is that they have their QB situation worked out for that 3 year stretch and we don't.  K. Allen and Murray are elite, high-level guys who are expected to be very, very good.  I'm not sure we have identified our QB of the future yet.  Does A. Allen get a shot for a couple years?  Is Rafe the dual threat guy we've all been wanting?  Is Storey the gunslinger that he was billed as coming out of HS?  There are so many unknowns in this equation.  If we had a guy with proven experience that was going to step in, I would say we have the upper hand.  However, football is a QB's game and it's hard to win without at least a solid QB.  I give the Ags the upper hand because I think 2016 will have some growing pains.

[Grizzlyfan]

Bielema's approach will take Arkansas farther in the long run.

[gmarv]

don,t think its a fair ? were on the rise they have stagnated (you can,t take the homer out of me)we,ll be better by far.

[MJ2]

A&M due to overall talent level and slight edge in coaching.

[ZERO]

I like everything about where we are and where we are going better than TAMU.  I think Chavis is outstanding, but can't say that I'd take him over Robb Smith right now.  The only reason, I'd give the Aggies the edge is that they have their QB situation worked out for that 3 year stretch and we don't.  K. Allen and Murray are elite, high-level guys who are expected to be very, very good.  I'm not sure we have identified our QB of the future yet.  Does A. Allen get a shot for a couple years?  Is Rafe the dual threat guy we've all been wanting?  Is Storey the gunslinger that he was billed as coming out of HS?  There are so many unknowns in this equation.  If we had a guy with proven experience that was going to step in, I would say we have the upper hand.  However, football is a QB's game and it's hard to win without at least a solid QB.  I give the Ags the upper hand because I think 2016 will have some growing pains.

A&M actually DOESN'T have their QB situation figured out. Kenny Hill was a 4* out of high school, and looked like the second coming early in the season last year, and he got benched and transferred. Although I don't think that both Allen and Murray are going to end up being 5* busts, don't forget that every QB we have on campus was rated 4* by a service, and we've struggled at that position since Petrino left. It could happen to them, too. 5* don't pan out all the time.

[mhsbc59]

A&M due to overall talent level and slight edge in coaching.

How does A/M have a coaching advantage its even at best

[AugustaHog]

A&M actually DOESN'T have their QB situation figured out. Kenny Hill was a 4* out of high school, and looked like the second coming early in the season last year, and he got benched and transferred. Although I don't think that both Allen and Murray are going to end up being 5* busts, don't forget that every QB we have on campus was rated 4* by a service, and we've struggled at that position since Petrino left. It could happen to them, too. 5* don't pan out all the time.

Well, the early returns are looking good for them on Allen.  He looked really good for a true FR last year and proved he is capable of running Sumlin's offense.  Once he got rolling, they played much better.  You have to expect a kid with his talent to improve over time.  Sumlin has always seemed to have productive QB's.  Obviously Murray hasn't done anything yet, but the hype around the kid is believable.  I'm not saying he'll be Montana or Brady, but it's reasonable that in that system he will put up yards and points.  Those two guys are the reason Hill is gone.  Kenny Hill will wind up doing good things at TCU next year after Boykin leaves.  It is really unfair for me to judge our young QBs (Peavey and Storey) because they haven't gotten their chance yet.  I will say that I think Austin is a serviceable backup QB.  Unless he has changed drastically with the addition of Enos, I don't see him as a starter in the SEC.  It took his brother 3 years to get to that level, so maybe there is still hope. 

[GolfnHog]

A&M due to overall talent level and slight edge in coaching.

Can you give some credence to A&M having better coaching? I'll hang up and listen.

[Bacon_Bitz]

Can you give some credence to A&M having better coaching? I'll hang up and listen.

I'd rather have a DC who was still focused on building his reputation for the future than one at the point in his career where you might expect him to start slipping a little bit and who just made a questionable lateral move slightly downward on the basis of his past reputation.

They might have better O-coaching in that their scheme is fancier, but that air raid spread stuff is volatile no matter how much you coach it up.

I also think a lot of the media darling SEC QB's will only marginally improve or take a step back this year (Allen at A&M, Dobbs at Tenner, Johnson at Aubbie).  I don't have a reason for thinking this other than just hoping and wishing, b/c that would bode well for the Hogs.

Hogs 38 - Ags 28, but the game doesn't even feel that close.

[MJ2]

Can you give some credence to A&M having better coaching? I'll hang up and listen.

I think Sumlin has proven himself and he made the tough decision to go beef up his defense with a top coordinator.   Add to that, he is in a so called hot bed of recruits in Texas, and you have a potentially potent mix.

[majp51]

I think Sumlin has proven himself and he made the tough decision to go beef up his defense with a top coordinator.   Add to that, he is in a so called hot bed of recruits in Texas, and you have a potentially potent mix.

How exactly has Sumlin proven himself? He has only coached for 7 years, and in his 3 years at A&M he has progressively gotten worse. Granted 11-2 in season 1 at A&M means you are likely to lose more in subsequent seasons, but to finish 6th (out of 7) in the SEC in year 3 isn't a good sign.

Meanwhile Bielema has an equally impressive record , if not moreso, accumulated in much harder conferences. We may brag that the Big 10 is not the SEC, but it is still an order of magnitude better than Conference USA. Meanwhile Bielema took over an absolute train wreck of a program at UofA, with little talent left, Sumlin took over a team loaded with 1st round NFL talent. 

Now I'm not trying to say Sumlin is a bad coach, Mike Sherman proved that tons of talent at A&M doesn't necessarily translate to wins. With that being said though, I just don't see how you say Sumlin has proven himself to a level that places him above Bielema

[OneTuskOverTheLine™]

How does A/M have a coaching advantage its even at best

Yeah Yeah..! Even at Best..!


At best..!

[trashcan maN]

We just gonna completely overlook the fact that CBB could head to the NFL too??

Yes

[HillBillyHogfan]

How exactly has Sumlin proven himself? He has only coached for 7 years, and in his 3 years at A&M he has progressively gotten worse. Granted 11-2 in season 1 at A&M means you are likely to lose more in subsequent seasons, but to finish 6th (out of 7) in the SEC in year 3 isn't a good sign.

Meanwhile Bielema has an equally impressive record , if not moreso, accumulated in much harder conferences. We may brag that the Big 10 is not the SEC, but it is still an order of magnitude better than Conference USA. Meanwhile Bielema took over an absolute train wreck of a program at UofA, with little talent left, Sumlin took over a team loaded with 1st round NFL talent. 

Now I'm not trying to say Sumlin is a bad coach, Mike Sherman proved that tons of talent at A&M doesn't necessarily translate to wins. With that being said though, I just don't see how you say Sumlin has proven himself to a level that places him above Bielema

BOOM!


Sumlin with a freak of nature QB and all of Sherman's recruits... 11-2
Sumlin with a freak of nature QB and some of Sherman's recruits... 9-4
Sumlin with his QB and his recruits... 8-5
     He was a trippiing penalty and 3 turnovers away from 4-8 (Arkansas, Auburn, Monroe, West Virginia)

Bielema with Bobby and John L's players 3-9
Bielema with Some of his players and some of Bobby/JLS 7-6
Bielema with his men... kicks aTm's arse this season.

Who is headed the right direction?  Honestly I think Chavis is good but not great... He has been the recipient of coaching the best dang players on the planet in an offense that compliments defense... not so at aTm.  The Chavis-Sumlin marriage is one of opposing football philosophies.

My personal opinion is that Sumlin is in over his head... he should have taken an NFL job after year 1. 

I say he and Les are the two west coaches to be next on the hot seat.

[ZERO]

They might have better O-coaching in that their scheme is fancier, but that air raid spread stuff is volatile no matter how much you coach it up.

I also think a lot of the media darling SEC QB's will only marginally improve or take a step back this year (Allen at A&M, Dobbs at Tenner, Johnson at Aubbie).  I don't have a reason for thinking this other than just hoping and wishing, b/c that would bode well for the Hogs.

Something else that supports your point that you didn't mention, was the idea that most of the SEC teams this year won't be really loaded at QB. Ole Miss, LSU, Florida, and Alabama are all completely in the dark. Vanderbilt and Kentucky are Vanderbilt and Kentucky. I don't know about South Carolina, but I'm guessing QB won't be a position of strength for them.

Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and Mississippi State are the only ones that have their QB situation in hand, and I'm not 100% sold on the hype of Missouri and Tennessee's starters. "Mauktoberfest"? Give me an effing break.

Edit: I realize I added aTm in the "got it figured out" category after I said above that they didn't have their QB situation figured out. I mean they have what appears to be a capable starter and theoretically a capable backup. The good news is the other guy is still unproven, and they had to burn the redshirt of their starter on a couple of games in what ended up being a throwaway season. If that guy turns out to be super good like the TAMU fans believe he is, then he could leave as early as this season is over. Then they're down to one unproven scholarship starter.

[rljjr]

I have total faith in the Aggies being Aggies. They'll have some nice teams, but they're not going to win the West anytime soon. Oh, sure, they'll win it before Ole Miss does, but not for a while. I know they just brought in a new OLine coach to try and revamp what they do with the running game, but I don't see them a threat. And new DC or not, I'm not scared of their Defense either. I think we will assert our dominance over them and assume our rightful place looking down on them most seasons if we can continue to recruit great linemen and keep our coaches and coordinators happy.

[Pigsknuckles]

We just gonna completely overlook the fact that CBB could head to the NFL too??

If he does, he does. Though coaching attrition may be a downside, I really prefer having staff that others want. Just like quality recruits, quality coaches will gravitate to successful programs.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Don't see what all the hub-bub is about with Sumlin. 

[rickm1976]

The Ags will always find a way to screw it up, despite their talent.  We will end up slightly ahead of them.

[GoHogs1091]

That pretty much sums it up for me, too.  The only thing I'd change is that Chavis will vastly improve their defense, but it will never be as good as he had at LSU.  That last part is important.

A&M will be improved and it seems like everyone's just beginning to realize this.  They scare me more then anyone else, but that's partly because I worry we'll be heavily favored and look bad if we lose.

Chavis has stated in the past (around 2 seasons ago when he was at LSU) that in order for his Defense to work, he needs 2 shut down Cornerbacks.

He doesn't have 2 shut down Cornerbacks this season at A&M.

[Hawgvillain]

We just gonna completely overlook the fact that CBB could head to the NFL too??

Usually coaches that base part of their philosophy on instilling discipline in young men are more suited for the college game.  Sumlin hasn't shown anything that makes me believe this is part of his philosophy.  Further, he was linked to a few pro jobs before signing his most recent contract.  I've never heard Bielema linked to a pro job.

Not saying it's impossible -- but seems much more likely to me that Sumlin goes to the NFL than Bielema.

[lefty08]

It's impossible to consider all things and not be a homer when looking at the series with aTm. Nice OP

[WarPig88]

All A&M has to do is get better on defense to be an extremely formidable program. They don't lack talent on that side of the ball either so it isn't likely that Chavis will tank there.

We have got to be better on offense in the second half this year. If we improve in that area, then I like our chances to be ahead 3 years from now.

[DLUXHOG]

The Ags will always find a way to screw it up, despite their talent.  We will end up slightly ahead of them.

We do own a 41–27–3 advantage over them... uhh... that is we have won 60%+ when we have played them.......

[HogFanInBryant]

No one really answers my original question.  The body of work for the 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons...who will be more impressive?  And...I absolutely think both Sumlin and Coach B will still be in place.  Neither AD will let them go unless you have an absolute disaster happen.

[jmark]

Bielema's approach will take Arkansas farther in the long run.

^^^

[ChiTown27]

I don't think he's going to make that much of a difference. DC's aren't miracle workers. Spread/hurry-up/any team that scores quickly is going to have trouble on D. It's not a scheme thing, it's not a talent thing, it's a simple math thing. More minutes on the field=more fatigue. You can have the most impenetrable defensive scheme ever designed by man but it's not going to make a difference if your players are gassed.

If they magically gain the endurance, they will lose their mass in all the conditioning. If they keep their mass, then they will wear down faster. What will we do? In scenario one, we just power over them and score consistently. In scenario two, we have a huge offensive second half!

[jmark]

2015 is a breakout season for the CBB and the Hogs.

if the coaching staff stays for 3 years, we won't be comparing arkansas to aTm.
we are going to start competing with the 'bamas.

A&M should have a better shot at being better. but i see CBB's teams moving to the top of the west in the next 3 years.

[CFB_Fanatic]

Usually coaches that base part of their philosophy on instilling discipline in young men are more suited for the college game.  Sumlin hasn't shown anything that makes me believe this is part of his philosophy.  Further, he was linked to a few pro jobs before signing his most recent contract.  I've never heard Bielema linked to a pro job.Not saying it's impossible -- but seems much more likely to me that Sumlin goes to the NFL than Bielema.

Sorry you missed it.

"Bret Bielema could have been the head coach of the Miami Dolphins, but talks between the two sides in 2012 fell apart reportedly because the organization did not feel comfortable drafting Russell Wilson in the second round."

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/25012806/disagreement-over-drafting-russell-wilson-kept-bret-bielema-from-the-nfl

[OS2 (SW) Razor Back]

Hogs.......It even close!

[Inhogswetrust]

 

I don't think he's going to make that much of a difference. DC's aren't miracle workers. Spread/hurry-up/any team that scores quickly is going to have trouble on D. It's not a scheme thing, it's not a talent thing, it's a simple math thing. More minutes on the field=more fatigue. You can have the most impenetrable defensive scheme ever designed by man but it's not going to make a difference if your players are gassed.

If you don't think a new DC can make a big difference then you must not have watched the Hogs last year.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I don't think he's going to make that much of a difference. DC's aren't miracle workers. Spread/hurry-up/any team that scores quickly is going to have trouble on D. It's not a scheme thing, it's not a talent thing, it's a simple math thing. More minutes on the field=more fatigue. You can have the most impenetrable defensive scheme ever designed by man but it's not going to make a difference if your players are gassed.

Sometimes I think that too much is made of this point though I realize that there is some substance to what you are saying. Still, it isn't as if the defense is logging two more drives worth of plays on the field than the offense on average.

A&M ran an average of 71.9 plays per game last year. Their defense was on the field for an average of 76.3 for a difference of 4.4 more plays per game than the offense. I think what "gasses" a defense more is not having the ability to get more "3 and outs" and having to stay on the field while the opponent has extended drives. That has nothing to do with their own offense. A&M's defense averaged 5.9 plays per drive on defense last year, the highest in the SEC. To me, this is why Chavis was hired and can have a greater impact more immediately.

[UAfanatic]

A&M has slid back into their comfortable spot after Manziel..

With a little lift in recruiting based on the the Johnny football anomaly
and the decline of UT.

Where they have declined, we have improved.

I can't help but think that neither of these trends has topped out.

As far as QB, One of the benefits of having a solid non superstar quarterback
is that the system gets to do the work, and transitions in QB should
not have as big of an impact.

so.. Go Hogs!  ..trending up...

[HappyHogFan]

Usually coaches that base part of their philosophy on instilling discipline in young men are more suited for the college game.  Sumlin hasn't shown anything that makes me believe this is part of his philosophy.  Further, he was linked to a few pro jobs before signing his most recent contract.  I've never heard Bielema linked to a pro job.

Not saying it's impossible -- but seems much more likely to me that Sumlin goes to the NFL than Bielema.

Yep, that's why you see guys like Spurrier, who is obviously a great college coach , not translate well to the NFL. It's a completely different strategy in coaching.

Simply being a winning college coach doesn't mean you will win at the NFL level. Proven time and time again.

[wholehog92]

A & M is on the verge of screwing up every day they wake up.  Some of you youngsters on the board haven't had the pleasure of watching the constant wreck that is Aggie football.  For my life they have been a consistently decent team that looks to be a world beater on paper.  I know we think we are a snake bit program with some kind of curse on it.  Go back and look at the aggs over their history and you will feel much better about our spot in CFB history.

History repeats itself.  Case in point, the aggs made a great move and left the craphole 12 conference for the SEC.  The whorns were down, TCU didn't have a home, BYU was in transition and trending down.  Everything was set up for the ags to own texass.  They have done nothing but get worse over the last 3 years.  TCU is now the team to beat in texass.  Uterus has hired a good coach. 

Their trend is the exact opposite of ours.  Sumlin had to make that hire to stay off the hot seat.  Can you imagine how it might have warmed up if he continued to get worse with no one to blame?

We will have a better next 3 years than A and M.

[texas tush hog]

We just gonna completely overlook the fact that CBB could head to the NFL too??

Don't see that as a serious consideration. Like Saban, he is not cut out of that kind of cloth. The NFL is a bunch of Prima Donnas and CBB just does not cotton to that lifestyle and don't believe Jen is either from what I've been told.

[rljjr]

No one really answers my original question.  The body of work for the 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons...who will be more impressive?  And...I absolutely think both Sumlin and Coach B will still be in place.  Neither AD will let them go unless you have an absolute disaster happen.

OK, Arkansas ... and by a wide margin.

[HogFanInBryant]

OK, Arkansas ... and by a wide margin.

I hope this is true but they have owned the state of TX in recruiting the last few years.  I've got faith in BB but even Les Miles can't screw up top talent year after year...and Sumlin>Miles