BA and his quest for 3000

[lefty08]

A good point was brought up on the radio the other day (id give credit to the author but it would derail the thread). It was a statement about yards after the catch. I can't seem to find any stats on this, but it's reasonable to say Arkansas had to be near the bottom of the SEC in this statistic.

My point is, BA threw for a hair under 2300 yards last year without many long runs on short passes. Is it that out of the question to think with a playmaker or 2 he could fairly easily reach 3000 with a similar type completion percentage?

Obviously we all want his % to go up and I think it will, I just think his passing yardage is somewhat handicapped by not having that guy who can catch a 5 yard slant and go 80.

What do y'all think?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

A good point was brought up on the radio the other day (id give credit to the author but it would derail the thread). It was a statement about yards after the catch. I can't seem to find any stats on this, but it's reasonable to say Arkansas had to be near the bottom of the SEC in this statistic.

My point is, BA threw for a hair under 2300 yards last year without many long runs on short passes. Is it that out of the question to think with a playmaker or 2 he could fairly easily reach 3000 with a similar type completion percentage?

Obviously we all want his % to go up and I think it will, I just think his passing yardage is somewhat handicapped by not having that guy who can catch a 5 yard slant and go 80.

What do y'all think?

Allen 2014

26.1-14.6   56%     6.7 p/att   12.0 p/compl     175.8 p/gm      5 INT    20 TD

Allen 2015

28.7-17.2    60%     8.1 p/att  13.5 p/compl      232.3 p/gm     6 INT    24 TD

A slight increase in the frequency of throws, more YAC (OC putting receivers in a better position to do so) and a 60% completion percentage is going to go a long way towards Brandon Allen throwing for 3,000+ yards this season, based on 13 games.

[Doug]

2014   26.1-14.6   56%     6.7 p/att   12.0 p/compl     175.8 p/gm      5 INT    20 TD
2015   28.7-17.2    60%     8.1 p/att  13.5 p/compl      232.3 p/gm     6 INT    24 TD

Interesting.... Completion percentage in 2015 was 12.5% gain. Yards per game was a MONSTROUS 32.14% improvement.

Yards Per Game needs to average out to 250, in order to achieve 3000 yards. A marginal 7.62% improvement. With Enos coming in, simplifying things, but improving fundamentals/quick reads (HEAD ON A STICK, MAN!), I don't think it'll take much effort to achieve that improvement. Bump up the completed percentage to 64 to 67%, keep the yardage the same. Even a 65% completion rate, while keeping completed yardage the same gets BA to OVER 250 yards a game. Something tells me that we'll be pleasantly surprised here. Each uptick of completion percentage (1% increase) represents approximately 3.18 yards.

Understanding the fickle nature of the game, there will be times when BA doesn't achieve that every game. On the flip side, there will be times when he exceeds it. As long as it all averages out, and he can maintain his numbers from last year while improving completion percentages to 65% (or better)... he's gonna turn heads nationally.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Interesting.... Completion percentage in 2015 was 12.5% gain. Yards per game was a MONSTROUS 32.14% improvement.

Yards Per Game needs to average out to 250, in order to achieve 3000 yards. A marginal 7.62% improvement. With Enos coming in, simplifying things, but improving fundamentals/quick reads (HEAD ON A STICK, MAN!), I don't think it'll take much effort to achieve that improvement. Bump up the completed percentage to 64 to 67%, keep the yardage the same. Even a 65% completion rate, while keeping completed yardage the same gets BA to OVER 250 yards a game. Something tells me that we'll be pleasantly surprised here. Each uptick of completion percentage (1% increase) represents approximately 3.18 yards.

Understanding the fickle nature of the game, there will be times when BA doesn't achieve that every game. On the flip side, there will be times when he exceeds it. As long as it all averages out, and he can maintain his numbers from last year while improving completion percentages to 65% (or better)... he's gonna turn heads nationally.

My numbers were based on 13 games so an average of 232 over 13 games does get him just barely over 3,000. Of course that being an average, that means he is going to have throw for more in some games and less in others, but we are just "ball-parkin" here.

[lefty08]

I agree with ya Doug. I've seen too many comments about getting to 3000 not being possible but when you really look at the numbers it doesn't look that far fetched.

I still feel that yards after catch will be much better this year as well and that would be huge even if the %s don't improve too much

[Doug]

CLARIFICATION: My numbers were based on 12 games. If basing it on 13 games, then the road to 3000 is even easier.

[JaketheSnake]

With the addition of some basic screen passes, at least one additional TE that seems to be on the level of Henry, and if Reed pans out for a nice deep ball or two a game then we could easily see BA reach 3000.  (If all that pans out and we are competent in the screen game and our new tackles can protect long enough to get the deep ball thrown)

[AugustaHog]

If BA hits 3000 yds and maintains a similar ratio of TDs-INTs, we will be dang near unbeatable.  You know we will run the ball at a very high level, so even if the D backs up some, we have plenty of firepower to help bridge that gap.  It will be fun to see BA's progression and the addition of Reed, a screen game, and the growth of some younger players.  I look forward to seeing big Kody making the most of his 7-8 carries/gm as well.

[presidenthog]

CLARIFICATION: My numbers were based on 12 games. If basing it on 13 games, then the road to 3000 is even easier.

I think we need to base this off a 12 game schedule. counting bowl games isn't really how I look at stats generally. i see it more as post-season rather than an extension of it.

[PigWig]

I think a big factor will be how much we throw the ball against weaker opponents. If we're thumping UTEP and Toledo, do we continue throwing the ball and leave our QB1 in the game? I know I'd rather get the backup QBs some experience if we're up big, especially since we've needed a backup QB just about every season in the last half decade.

The other thing I wonder about will be the amount of pass plays called in these games if we're dominating the opponent on the ground. Of course you'll want to get your passing offense some work, but if you're averaging 6+ YPC on the ground, I really don't see us throwing the ball 30 times in that game.

I don't think he'll get to 3000 personally. I don't think it will be his fault, I just think our running game will be too good, our offense will eat too much clock, and we'll be beating certain opponents so bad that we'll see backup QBs and the run game in the second half of several games this year.

[gmarv]

Allen 2014

26.1-14.6   56%     6.7 p/att   12.0 p/compl     175.8 p/gm      5 INT    20 TD

Allen 2015

28.7-17.2    60%     8.1 p/att  13.5 p/compl      232.3 p/gm     6 INT    24 TD

A slight increase in the frequency of throws, more YAC (OC putting receivers in a better position to do so) and a 60% completion percentage is going to go a long way towards Brandon Allen throwing for 3,000+ yards this season, based on 13 games.

I truly believe ba will improve his numbers this year over last year.3,000 looks very doable with a 60% comp.rate.the stat I hope for more than any other is the 6 ints.and 24+ tds.

[JaketheSnake]

I think a big factor will be how much we throw the ball against weaker opponents. If we're thumping UTEP and Toledo, do we continue throwing the ball and leave our QB1 in the game? I know I'd rather get the backup QBs some experience if we're up big, especially since we've needed a backup QB just about every season in the last half decade.

The other thing I wonder about will be the amount of pass plays called in these games if we're dominating the opponent on the ground. Of course you'll want to get your passing offense some work, but if you're averaging 6+ YPC on the ground, I really don't see us throwing the ball 30 times in that game.

I don't think he'll get to 3000 personally. I don't think it will be his fault, I just think our running game will be too good, our offense will eat too much clock, and we'll be beating certain opponents so bad that we'll see backup QBs and the run game in the second half of several games this year.

I think that will be up to Coach Enos and generally college teams do not ease up much when ahead. 

[atekido]

Hunter Henry will be the biggest factor in allen reaching 3000. either directly by catching or indirectly by team putting a spy on him just to help keep him covered which would free someone else up.

[jgphillips3]

His road to 3000 is made easier by a lot of things, but I'm going to say one thing truly gives him a shot at 3000 and better YAC: Reed.  YAC goes way up when you hit someone 15 yards downfield who can take it the rest of the way.

[nchogg]

BA could very well succeed. His footwork looked much improved this spring. The receivers need to hold onto more balls and he will get his yards. So many times he scrambled to the side line and had to throw it away unless he had an open receiver. I think he will have a lot more options this year.

[Cinco de Hogo]

Allen needs time, so far in his career he hasn't done well when under pressure.  That falls on the O-line. 

Next, Enos need to have a positive effect on his ability to read the defense, make the reads, adjustments Etc. 

Then, assuming he doesn't feel the need to throw to a fan in the stands, he needs to get the ball to the reciever on target to increase his percentage.

Next, he needs a group of receivers that either have the ability or have been taught to run routes AND get that little bit of separation needed for a pass to be successful.

Then, figuring all those things happen, I think there a pretty good chance the YAC goes up,

[Kevin]

The more important quest is to win a game in the fourth quarter

[Cinco de Hogo]

The more important quest is to win a game in the fourth quarter

What do you think gives us a better chance to do that?

[RzRbAcK18]

This is an uneduacted and off the topic question I just want to ask. If BA hits 3000 or more and keeps close to the same percentage. Does he get a shot at the next level? Do we need to win both SEC and NC to make that happen? Does he go undrafted and get a chance at free agency? Again, don't call me out, I'm mostly just a daily reader of HV, not much of a contributor.

[HappyHogFan]

This is an uneduacted and off the topic question I just want to ask. If BA hits 3000 or more and keeps close to the same percentage. Does he get a shot at the next level? Do we need to win both SEC and NC to make that happen? Does he go undrafted and get a chance at free agency? Again, don't call me out, I'm mostly just a daily reader of HV, not much of a contributor.

BA is NOT going to the NFL, no matter what sort of numbers he puts up this year, he's not an NFL caliber qb.

And I hope that getting 3,000 yards passing for him is the very last thing on our coach's mind, if we're thumping teams, our QB2 needs to be in the game getting some game experience, so we aren't starting someone with no game experience next season.

[lefty08]

BA is NOT going to the NFL, no matter what sort of numbers he puts up this year, he's not an NFL caliber qb.

And I hope that getting 3,000 yards passing for him is the very last thing on our coach's mind, if we're thumping teams, our QB2 needs to be in the game getting some game experience, so we aren't starting someone with no game experience next season.

Thanks for that uplifting take......

[PonderinHog]

This is an uneduacted and off the topic question I just want to ask. If BA hits 3000 or more and keeps close to the same percentage. Does he get a shot at the next level? Do we need to win both SEC and NC to make that happen? Does he go undrafted and get a chance at free agency? Again, don't call me out, I'm mostly just a daily reader of HV, not much of a contributor.

If has a stellar year, he may get a look.

[Pigsknuckles]

Thanks for that uplifting take......

Not gonna give HHN any props for tact, but he gets my +1 for having the guts to jump into shark infested waters and tell it like it is. I have never been a fan of directing team goals to pad any players stats, and I doubt our staff would disagree. Win the games with the resources you have, and the numbers/awards will take care of themselves.

[lefty08]

Not gonna give HHN any props for tact, but he gets my +1 for having the guts to jump into shark infested waters and tell it like it is. I have never been a fan of directing team goals to pad any players stats, and I doubt our staff would disagree. Win the games with the resources you have, and the numbers/awards will take care of themselves.

I think you are in the wrong place. Nowhere in this thread is it even insinuated that padding stats for BA is necessary.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

BA is NOT going to the NFL, no matter what sort of numbers he puts up this year, he's not an NFL caliber qb.

And I hope that getting 3,000 yards passing for him is the very last thing on our coach's mind, if we're thumping teams, our QB2 needs to be in the game getting some game experience, so we aren't starting someone with no game experience next season.

If BA throws for 3,000 yards it will be because our offense, overall, has been more effective in all phases this year. And I am pretty sure that if we see large leads late in the 3rd or in the 4th Quarters, you are going to see someone else under Center. This staff knows that they need to get the back-up more live snaps not only for next year, but to get through this year.

As for your analysis of what a potential NFL QB looks like on the field, I'll grant you that BA has not had game after game that made him look like an NFL QB to the armchair QB's. There have been reasons for that and some of those had absolutely zippo to do with him.

This is the first off-season that he has had an actual, true QB coach tutoring him since BP left and at that time, he wasn't getting the vast majority of BP's attention as a R/S Freshman. When you consider that the kid has had to endure 1 year of JLS and then 2 years of Chaney (who wasn't a true QB Coach), it shouldn't be surprising that he has appeared to be an under-developed talent or less-achieving SEC QB. And I'm not making excuses for the kid, I am just stating the facts.

This season is his best chance since arriving at Arkansas in 2011 to have a great season because he is healthy and he has had quality position coaching and he may have the talent around him to achieve greater things in the passing game. We'll see how he responds.

[blu]

I think he has a solid chance. Think back to his spring game this year vs last year. He will start this season more confidence, with a stronger overall more experienced receiving corps and offensive line, and with two 1,000 yard rushers. Honestly, when you consider all of the positives, I'd be disappointed if he didn't make 3000.

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

If BA throws for 3,000 yards it will be because our offense, overall, has been more effective in all phases this year. And I am pretty sure that if we see large leads late in the 3rd or in the 4th Quarters, you are going to see someone else under Center. This staff knows that they need to get the back-up more live snaps not only for next year, but to get through this year.

As for your analysis of what a potential NFL QB looks like on the field, I'll grant you that BA has not had game after game that made him look like an NFL QB to the armchair QB's. There have been reasons for that and some of those had absolutely zippo to do with him.

This is the first off-season that he has had an actual, true QB coach tutoring him since BP left and at that time, he wasn't getting the vast majority of BP's attention as a R/S Freshman. When you consider that the kid has had to endure 1 year of JLS and then 2 years of Chaney (who wasn't a true QB Coach), it shouldn't be surprising that he has appeared to be an under-developed talent or less-achieving SEC QB. And I'm not making excuses for the kid, I am just stating the facts.

This season is his best chance since arriving at Arkansas in 2011 to have a great season because he is healthy and he has had quality position coaching and he may have the talent around him to achieve greater things in the passing game. We'll see how he responds.

Furthermore, QBs at other colleges ''blow up'' in their Junior/Senior year for whatever reason and become the flavor of the day.   Sometimes it's warranted, sometimes not.

I think what we're seeing out of these last few responses is the unrealistic weight and blame that's placed at the feet of a QB, regardless the circumstances.

[Hawgzinbowlz]

I think you are in the wrong place. Nowhere in this thread is it even insinuated that padding stats for BA is necessary.

Exactly...and nowhere is the subject of Brandon being an NFL QB included in this discussion, except by those taking a bash at BA.

To get back to the discussion, I think our style of offense will get BA between 2500-2800 Yards in the '15 regular season. If JWill and AC get 1000 yards, or near, and BA throws for 3000 yards this year it's going to be a very good season.

" GO HOGS "

[Pigsknuckles]

I think you are in the wrong place. Nowhere in this thread is it even insinuated that padding stats for BA is necessary.

Nope. The very thread title insinuates a certain "quest". I took a lot of hits during the "Mallett for Heisman" era when I voiced that the Bama INT at RRS was the best thing that could have happened for our TEAM. Wasn't then (and currently isn't) a knock at any player. Though a long time fan of our program, I just don't live vicariously through the achievements of others.

[lefty08]

Nope. The very thread title insinuates a certain "quest". I took a lot of hits during the "Mallett for Heisman" era when I voiced that the Bama INT at RRS was the best thing that could have happened for our TEAM. Wasn't then (and currently isn't) a knock at any player. Though a long time fan of our program, I just don't live vicariously through the achievements of others.

Congrats sir. You clearly are much more refined and mature than the majority of us here. We need more of that in here

[12247]

I hope Brandon Allen achieves many things as a QB his senior year but I hope the TEAM achieves more.

For example:  I hope the team passes for over 300 yards in a few games and that the backup QBs achieve about one third to one half of that.  That indicates that we are getting ahead and then using the time allotted to produce a better overall team.  A cardboard cutout could have achieved about as much as our 2's and 3's at QB recently.  Up 50 or down 50, somewhere along the way we need to find out if anyone but BA can take a snap, drop back and toss the ball effectively.  Usually when a 2 has been in the game, its with the #2 line and other #2s and we haven't allowed much throwing and when it did happen, not much happened.

I want BA to WIN a game with a 4th quarter QB comeback, I want BA to position us in many games where it is not necessary for him to be playing much in the 4th quarter,  I want BA to take a clutch moment and be a difference maker when the chips are down.  I want BA to demand his team have the will to come from behind, the will to kill the opposition's desire to catch up and win.  the understanding and talent to hold the ball for 8 minutes or handle the 2 minute drive for victory.  I expect a lot.  BA is a senior, had the ball a lot over the past 3 years and has experience on the field.  I wish his experience had been better taught but a talent could and should have learned some things just by being on the field.  I want BA to be a leader.  That often means throwing for 115 and doing a passel of things otherwise to be ahead on the score board at the end of regulation.

[HappyHogFan]

If BA throws for 3,000 yards it will be because our offense, overall, has been more effective in all phases this year. And I am pretty sure that if we see large leads late in the 3rd or in the 4th Quarters, you are going to see someone else under Center. This staff knows that they need to get the back-up more live snaps not only for next year, but to get through this year.

As for your analysis of what a potential NFL QB looks like on the field, I'll grant you that BA has not had game after game that made him look like an NFL QB to the armchair QB's. There have been reasons for that and some of those had absolutely zippo to do with him.

This is the first off-season that he has had an actual, true QB coach tutoring him since BP left and at that time, he wasn't getting the vast majority of BP's attention as a R/S Freshman. When you consider that the kid has had to endure 1 year of JLS and then 2 years of Chaney (who wasn't a true QB Coach), it shouldn't be surprising that he has appeared to be an under-developed talent or less-achieving SEC QB. And I'm not making excuses for the kid, I am just stating the facts.

This season is his best chance since arriving at Arkansas in 2011 to have a great season because he is healthy and he has had quality position coaching and he may have the talent around him to achieve greater things in the passing game. We'll see how he responds.

I agree with everything you said, but a Razorback fan can not help but be a little nervous about a senior QB leaving and having very little starting experience left on campus. In fact , outside of Tyler Wilson having some experience due to Mallett's injury his final year, I'm not sure I can remember the last time we began the season with a brand new starter who had any meaningful game experience under his belt.

Certainly Nutt never had one. He just flopped around from whomever to whomever.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I agree with everything you said, but a Razorback fan can not help but be a little nervous about a senior QB leaving and having very little starting experience left on campus. In fact , outside of Tyler Wilson having some experience due to Mallett's injury his final year, I'm not sure I can remember the last time we began the season with a brand new starter who had any meaningful game experience under his belt.

Certainly Nutt never had one. He just flopped around from whomever to whomever.

Well, we aren't starting out that way this year and as far as the others getting experience this year, we haven't even begun the season, so everyone might as well chill. Now if we get to November and none of the back-ups have seen the field for experience, then we can begin to worry about next year.

[Cinco de Hogo]

In the Petrino years I felt a certain amount of trust in a backup QB without meaningful game experience and the one time it was needed gave proof to that.

Since then the QB position has been somewhat rocky even at starter.  My hope for this year is that we have a real QB coach and if he is any good he will give the backups enough reps so thst they will be ready for prime time.  I'm chilling til there is reason to worry.