Leyland backs Miguel Cabrera as MVP over Trout

[ucahogfan]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8252517/detroit-tigers-jim-leyland-miguel-cabrera-deserves-mvp-mike-trout

Cabrera is having a stellar year, but Mike Trout is having one of the all-time great rookie seasons (if not just seasons) in MLB history as a 20/21 year old.  He is on track to hit 30 HRs and steal 50 bases in about 130 games while hitting close to .350.  Players win MVPs for going 30/30, but Trout could go 30/50 this year and 40/70 or better as he gets older and plays 150+ games in a season.

[ErieHog]

I'm going to go against the grain and say Miggy--  not because I like him or the Tigers.   The difference to me is going to be about 25 games worth of dependable elite play.     Like it or not, that's about a seventh of the season where Trout's absence will hurt him.   

[bsking]

Trout's WAR 7.0
Miggy's WAR 4.9

Even with missing a seventh of the season Trout has won his team more games.

Trout is having a year of years.  He could do something never done before.  Miggy is having a great year, but not historic.

[bsking]

Mike Trout's 162 game average for this season:

.345 AVG
38 HR
117 RBI
65 SBs
1.010 OPS

That's beyond insane.

[ucahogfan]

Article about the 2 man race for AL MVP.  The season Trout is having has only been done by one other person, Willie Mays in 1957 and 1958 and Trout is only 21.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/28887/al-mvp-debate-cabrera-versus-trout

[ucahogfan]

If the season ended today, Miggy would win the Triple Crown which would make him a lock to win MVP.  Winning a Triple Crown is impressive, but Trout is having one of the greatest seasons ever.  Trout has been worth 3.9 wins more to the Angels this year than Miggy to the Tigers in 20 less games.  Heck, Trout is the only player with a WAR over 6.7 and his is 10.5.  Could there possibly be a co-MVP this year if Miggy does win the Triple Crown?

[Hogtropolis™]

If the season ended today, Miggy would win the Triple Crown which would make him a lock to win MVP.  Winning a Triple Crown is impressive, but Trout is having one of the greatest seasons ever.  Trout has been worth 3.9 wins more to the Angels this year than Miggy to the Tigers in 20 less games.  Heck, Trout is the only player with a WAR over 6.7 and his is 10.5.  Could there possibly be a co-MVP this year if Miggy does win the Triple Crown?

Whether he win the triple crown or not, Cabrera has is more deserving of the MVP in my opinion.

[bsking]

WAR doesn't lie.

[OnTheHillHogFan]

Whether he win the triple crown or not, Cabrera has is more deserving of the MVP in my opinion.

Why? Because of overrated stats?

[Hogtropolis™]

Why? Because of overrated stats?

He's the best hitter in the game and is on pace to finish the season with the triple crown, something that has been done since the 60s. Even if he doesn't get the triple crown, he still leads the league in a lot of categories. Add that to the fact that his team will probably make the playoffs and Trout's definitely won't.

As far as overrated stats, the only one I keep seeing people pointing to for Trout is his WAR. All that points to to me is that his replacement is horrible.

And one more argument for Cabrera is that he switched positions this year to accomodate his team and Prince. Everything about him this year screams MVP to me.

And don't get me wrong, Trout is really good and is having a great season in his own right, but I just get the impression that people are just obsessed with him because he's young and new.

[ErieHog]

He's the best hitter in the game and is on pace to finish the season with the triple crown, something that has been done since the 60s. Even if he doesn't get the triple crown, he still leads the league in a lot of categories. Add that to the fact that his team will probably make the playoffs and Trout's definitely won't.

As far as overrated stats, the only one I keep seeing people pointing to for Trout is his WAR. All that points to to me is that his replacement is horrible.

And one more argument for Cabrera is that he switched positions this year to accomodate his team and Prince. Everything about him this year screams MVP to me.

And don't get me wrong, Trout is really good and is having a great season in his own right, but I just get the impression that people are just obsessed with him because he's young and new.

I'm still looking forward to Mauer stealing the batting title from him.     Bad day today, but he's been so hot lately that I expect he will catch him.

[ucahogfan]

As far as overrated stats, the only one I keep seeing people pointing to for Trout is his WAR. All that points to to me is that his replacement is horrible.

Pretty sure WAR measures how much a player is worth compared to the league average not a replacement player in the same system.  That means Trout is worth 4 more wins to the Angels than Miggy has been to the Tigers this year.  Remember just how terrible the Angels and Pujols were before Trout was called up.  Trout has been the best overall player in the AL this year although Miggy has been putting up great numbers.

Miggy had also been a 3B in the recent past and has only been a 1B for a couple of years.  Let's not act like he had never played the position before ala Bryce Harper in CF.

[bsking]

He's the best hitter in the game and is on pace to finish the season with the triple crown, something that has been done since the 60s. Even if he doesn't get the triple crown, he still leads the league in a lot of categories. Add that to the fact that his team will probably make the playoffs and Trout's definitely won't.

As far as overrated stats, the only one I keep seeing people pointing to for Trout is his WAR. All that points to to me is that his replacement is horrible.

And one more argument for Cabrera is that he switched positions this year to accomodate his team and Prince. Everything about him this year screams MVP to me.

And don't get me wrong, Trout is really good and is having a great season in his own right, but I just get the impression that people are just obsessed with him because he's young and new.

Trout right now is ~40 runs better than Cabrera in the field.  I think the offensive stats are pretty similar with everything tallied.  Cabrera leads most but Trout dominates in SBs and runs scored.  I'd give Cabrera a slight, but definite edge offensively.  But adding in the defense the edge swings hard in Trouts favor.

The difference in WAR is this.  If you were to take Mike Trout of the Angels and replace him with a purely average CF, the Angels would have lost 11 games that they won this year.  Doing the same thing with Cabrera, the Tigers would have lost 7 games that they won.

Trout has a WAR of 11.5 right now.  Ruth, Bonds, Hornsby, and Yastrzemski are the only guys to do better than that.  Factor in that he missed a month, this is arguably the greatest season of all time.

[Hogtropolis™]

Pretty sure WAR measures how much a player is worth compared to the league average not a replacement player in the same system.  That means Trout is worth 4 more wins to the Angels than Miggy has been to the Tigers this year.  Remember just how terrible the Angels and Pujols were before Trout was called up.  Trout has been the best overall player in the AL this year although Miggy has been putting up great numbers.

Miggy had also been a 3B in the recent past and has only been a 1B for a couple of years.  Let's not act like he had never played the position before ala Bryce Harper in CF.

WAR takes the league average and kind of uses that as a baseline of sorts to measure everything else off of. The actual WAR does come down to the WAR of the player that would replace you, whether that be the best available player on waivers or your replacement that is currently on the bench or in the minors. So the league average does play into it, but your replacement, from what I can tell plays a slightly larger role than the league average does. So that is why I made that statement. Basically, it's easier to find a good 3B to replace someone than it is a good CF. That's my only issue with WAR.

Look at the "Offensive Player" part of the following link. That's probably the best explanation I have found.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/

[bsking]

WAR can be calculated differently.  Fangraphs uses waiver-wire type differences, baseball-reference uses hypothetical average guys.

But regardless.  Trout is destroying in both categories.

[Hogtropolis™]

But I guess the thing I still have always had an issue with in comparing players of different positions with WAR is that the league average for say a 1B would be much better than the league average for a catcher. In this case I would guess the league average for a 3B would be better than that of a CF.

I know I'm in the minority in this argument, at least it seems like it, but I do want to make it clear that I'm not trying to diminish the stats and the year that Trout is having. He has had a phenomenal year, I just think Cabrera has done a little better and deserves the MVP.

[Hogtropolis™]

And Baseball-Reference looks to use actual replacements as well.

I couldn't tell for sure and didn't have time to read for sure, but they may use an average of replacements league wide instead of using team specific replacements, but it's definitely not the league's average center fielder or whatever position it may be. I will say this, they break it down pretty simple in some of the sites I've been on, but it's still a fairly complex stat.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

Average is a well-defined concept. You sum up all of the observations and then divide by the number of observations. We compute averages every day.

So why don't we compute Wins Above Average rather than Wins above Replacement? When computing the value of a major league player, average is a poor baseline for comparison. Average players are relatively rare and can be expensive to acquire. Average players don't make the league minimum. Plus, not all average performances are equal. A team would pay much more for 200 league average innings than for 50. When a star player is injured, they are rarely replaced by an average player--usually their replacement is much worse.

That last point is our premise here. Average players are relatively rare and difficult to obtain. Replacement level players, by their very definition, are players easy to obtain when a starter goes down. These are the players who receive non-roster invites at the start of the year or the players who are 6-year minor league free agents.

[bsking]

Yeah by "average" I meant an "average" of replacement guys not MLB as a whole.

I do get your point though, that the average CF replacement isn't going to be as offensively potent as the average 3B replacement.  Thus a CF will always have and advantage.

But you can take that point and look at it the other way too.  The fact that Trout is doing what he's doing at a weak offensive position just allows his team to be better.

So yeah, my point is that if Trout played 3B their WAR's would be closer.  But the fact that he's good enough to play CF should aid his candidacy, not hinder it.

[Hogtropolis™]

Alright, the season's over. What does everyone think now? I still say Cabrera has earned it.

[bsking]

As close of a 2 man race as I can remember.  Both deserve it.

If I had a ballot it would go for Mike Trout.  I'll admit that I am a little bias.  He's a Texas League veteran that I got to see a lot, and I jumped on his bandwagon 3 years ago.  But he does have the stats to back it up.

[ucahogfan]

I still think Trout should win.  If there were ever a year to have co-MVPs and co-AL Managers of the Year, 2012 would be it.  The Angels were terrible (like they made the Astros look good) the first month of the year with Trout in AAA.  When Trout was called up, the Angels had the best record in the AL.  He is also the first player EVER to hit 30 HRs, steal 45 bases, and score 125 runs in a season and he did it missing a month.  He is tbe best player in baseball and gave the Angels at least a shot to make the postseason which would have never happened without him.  Miggy did win the Triple Crown, but that has been done before.

Who wins AL Manager of the Year?  Bob Melvin or Buck Showalter?  It is probably one of the toughest awards of all time to give to only 1 person.