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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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DadVader1

The spreadsheets really like Oregon at -35.5 and Georgia Tech at -7. 

Oregon's lowest margin of victory so far has been 45.  Cal's rush defense is ranked 121, their pass defense is ranked 110, and their scoring defense is ranked 119.  It falls within a few trends hitting over 70% ATS.

Georgia Tech has been beating better teams, and VA Tech barely survived Marshall last week.  GT's scoring O is ranked 10th, VT is 85th, it's a Thursday night game at GT, and it falls within a few trends hitting over 70% ATS.  The power ranking systems have also been pretty good at picking both GT games & VT games ATS.

On Georgia/LSU, my gut says LSU, but a few trends hitting at over 70% say Georgia.  I'll probably sit that one out.

ur

I'm huge on Oregon and Baylor (I know they have the week off).
This will be Cal's first away game for a freshman QB.
Oregon and Ohio State have Cal in common. Everyone will be comparing scores similar to the Tenn game, If they both finish undefeated.
Oregon's Defense is better than most people think.

 

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: ur on September 24, 2013, 10:58:10 am
I'm huge on Oregon and Baylor (I know they have the week off).
This will be Cal's first away game for a freshman QB.
Oregon and Ohio State have Cal in common. Everyone will be comparing scores similar to the Tenn game, If they both finish undefeated.
Oregon's Defense is better than most people think.

-36 is such a big number... Even if it is Oregon

widespreadsooie

Oregon/CAL total is 84 which tells me Vegas fully expects Oregon to cover. Cal isn't going to score more than 24.

ur

Anyone have any faith in Clemson, after last weeks debacle, at home against Wake Forest?

widespreadsooie

Quote from: ur on September 24, 2013, 11:57:09 am
Anyone have any faith in Clemson, after last weeks debacle, at home against Wake Forest?

I think there are better options than laying 28 with a team who didn't necessarily play up to par last week. WF is terrible though. They can't move the ball which leads me to lean u58 a tad. Clemson should cover in my opinion, but its a lot of points for an offense that wasn't firing on all cylinders last week.   

ur

Anyone know why aggies had all the game time suspensions (6 I think) against Rice. Wondering if something like this may be brewing down there.

Huckleberry Pig

idk but I have locked in my first pick of the weekend.  Line was already jumping from -2 or so...


Navy -3 @ Western Kentucky -- 5*


Hawgndaaz

just settled up with my guy. he was grinning ear to ear. got him to admit sunday was one of the biggest NFL days he's collected on.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 24, 2013, 03:45:19 pm
idk but I have locked in my first pick of the weekend.  Line was already jumping from -2 or so...


Navy -3 @ Western Kentucky -- 5*



Wow, what is making you feel this strongly about this game? Not that I disagree with you, but it was really a no play for me so I would like to know your angle.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on September 24, 2013, 03:54:10 pm
Wow, what is making you feel this strongly about this game? Not that I disagree with you, but it was really a no play for me so I would like to know your angle.

First off, when was the last time Petrino saw an offense like Navy's.  This game will be very difficult for the Hilltoppers to prepare for defensively.  Navy averaging 398yrds per game on offense, Hilltoppers lowing 200yrds per game on Defense.  This matchup alone does not bode well for Hilltoppers. 

Second, Navy coming off a bye week with much time to prepare for an offense similar to what they saw from Indiana.  Won't be new to their Navy's.  Also, Navy's best D may be their running game.  If they can establish long, clock eating drives on the ground it will keep Petrino's O off the field. 

Third, I'm just not that confident in Hilltoppers offense.  Their QB has thrown for 8 INTs in his last two full games.  Hilltoppers played W. Kentucky well but it was their first game and Bobby had plenty of time to gameplan for that game.  Not the case here.  Think this one is a blowout.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 24, 2013, 04:18:41 pm
First off, when was the last time Petrino saw an offense like Navy's.  This game will be very difficult for the Hilltoppers to prepare for defensively.  Navy averaging 398yrds per game on offense, Hilltoppers lowing 200yrds per game on Defense.  This matchup alone does not bode well for Hilltoppers. 

Second, Navy coming off a bye week with much time to prepare for an offense similar to what they saw from Indiana.  Won't be new to their Navy's.  Also, Navy's best D may be their running game.  If they can establish long, clock eating drives on the ground it will keep Petrino's O off the field. 

Third, I'm just not that confident in Hilltoppers offense.  Their QB has thrown for 8 INTs in his last two full games.  Hilltoppers played W. Kentucky well but it was their first game and Bobby had plenty of time to gameplan for that game.  Not the case here.  Think this one is a blowout.

You may me right, and I have no plans to play it, but if I did I would bet on Petrino. I am picturing the strides Casey dick made weekly under Petrino. That said not planning to play it. That said hope you win it!
Let's make some waves.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 24, 2013, 04:18:41 pm
First off, when was the last time Petrino saw an offense like Navy's.  This game will be very difficult for the Hilltoppers to prepare for defensively.  Navy averaging 398yrds per game on offense, Hilltoppers lowing 200yrds per game on Defense.  This matchup alone does not bode well for Hilltoppers. 

Second, Navy coming off a bye week with much time to prepare for an offense similar to what they saw from Indiana.  Won't be new to their Navy's.  Also, Navy's best D may be their running game.  If they can establish long, clock eating drives on the ground it will keep Petrino's O off the field. 

Third, I'm just not that confident in Hilltoppers offense.  Their QB has thrown for 8 INTs in his last two full games.  Hilltoppers played W. Kentucky well but it was their first game and Bobby had plenty of time to gameplan for that game.  Not the case here.  Think this one is a blowout.

nice breakdown, and I see the logic. Hope it pays out better than my 5* pick. lol  Good Luck
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

 

WILL CLINTON

Public is really on Ole Miss. Line is already at -15.5 from -17.

Georgia Tech line moved down a half point also.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

MuskogeeHogFan

Early Picks pending further evaluation:

LSU @ Georgia (-3) 61-1/2                           LSU +3

S. Carolina (-7) 53 @ UCF                             Over

Ole Miss @ Alabama (-15-1/2) 57                  Ole Miss +15-1/2

Oklahoma (-3-1/2) 48.5 @ Notre Dame         Oklahoma -3-1/2

What do you guys think of these?
Go Hogs Go!

checkraiser88

Everybody jump on the bandwagon for the over 42 points in the Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech game. Looking at those teams scoring totals on the season it should easily get above 42..

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: checkraiser88 on September 24, 2013, 08:24:36 pm
Everybody jump on the bandwagon for the over 42 points in the Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech game. Looking at those teams scoring totals on the season it should easily get above 42..

I agree that the Over might be a good pick, but I think that GT -7 might be a good pick as well.
Go Hogs Go!

DadVader1

Here's what I've done so far:

GA Tech -6.5 (bought hook)  5 units
Oregon -36.5  2 units
Ball St. -1.5 (bought hook)  2 units
Missouri -20.5  (bought hook) 1 unit
Vandy -19.5   1 unit
Central FL  +8 (bought hook)  1 unit

There are all spreadsheet plays.  They all fell within a few small trends hitting at 80+% and within a few larger trends hitting at 60+%.

SPAL

I'm curious if any of you guys play any baseball? I know we typically only post about football for the purpose of this thread, but I've been playing bases all year and have had really good success. I find 1 game a day and play it hard and implement a modified martingale system if I lose. To this point I'm hitting over 60% and haven't had the system bust yet. I've only lost 3 in a row twice.

With that said, and With the playoffs around the corner, i would like to post my picks on here for you guys to  discuss or laugh at or give advice. So with your permission, I would like to do that and if anybody else plays, I'd love to hear your picks as well.

I love the MLB playoffs probably more than any sports postseason.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 25, 2013, 01:21:56 am
I'm curious if any of you guys play any baseball? I know we typically only post about football for the purpose of this thread, but I've been playing bases all year and have had really good success. I find 1 game a day and play it hard and implement a modified martingale system if I lose. To this point I'm hitting over 60% and haven't had the system bust yet. I've only lost 3 in a row twice.

With that said, and With the playoffs around the corner, i would like to post my picks on here for you guys to  discuss or laugh at or give advice. So with your permission, I would like to do that and if anybody else plays, I'd love to hear your picks as well.

I love the MLB playoffs probably more than any sports postseason.

I play some bases as well. Hockey too actually.
Let's make some waves.

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

For me it's the Hockey playoffs and not even close.
Let's make some waves.

Huckleberry Pig

no baseball here - hockey and football. 

Jeff didn't know you were a hockey fan as well.  Love me some hockey.  It's no football but it's my second favorite sport to watch on TV.

Huckleberry Pig

what's everyone's take on the LSU @ Georgia Game? 

I tend to lean Georgia but I'm pretty torn.

LSU really didn't play Auburn that well after the 1st quarter.  It was a night game in death valley and LSU came out and jumped to a 14pt lead.  After that though, Auburn matched them for the final 3 quarters. 

I think Georgia can take this one at home but LSU does have a tendency to play up/down to competition.  Georgia defense not impressive, Mettenberger getting better and has two very good receivers and a good RB.  Georgia offense very good and LSU D not as strong as last season.

Tough one here.

 

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 25, 2013, 10:16:44 am
what's everyone's take on the LSU @ Georgia Game? 

I tend to lean Georgia but I'm pretty torn.

LSU really didn't play Auburn that well after the 1st quarter.  It was a night game in death valley and LSU came out and jumped to a 14pt lead.  After that though, Auburn matched them for the final 3 quarters. 

I think Georgia can take this one at home but LSU does have a tendency to play up/down to competition.  Georgia defense not impressive, Mettenberger getting better and has two very good receivers and a good RB.  Georgia offense very good and LSU D not as strong as last season.

Tough one here.

Sounds like you like the over more than anything.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on September 24, 2013, 07:42:50 pm
Early Picks pending further evaluation:

LSU @ Georgia (-3) 61-1/2                           LSU +3

S. Carolina (-7) 53 @ UCF                             Over

Ole Miss @ Alabama (-15-1/2) 57                  Ole Miss +15-1/2

Oklahoma (-3-1/2) 48.5 @ Notre Dame         Oklahoma -3-1/2

What do you guys think of these?

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 25, 2013, 10:16:44 am
what's everyone's take on the LSU @ Georgia Game? 

I tend to lean Georgia but I'm pretty torn.

LSU really didn't play Auburn that well after the 1st quarter.  It was a night game in death valley and LSU came out and jumped to a 14pt lead.  After that though, Auburn matched them for the final 3 quarters. 

I think Georgia can take this one at home but LSU does have a tendency to play up/down to competition.  Georgia defense not impressive, Mettenberger getting better and has two very good receivers and a good RB.  Georgia offense very good and LSU D not as strong as last season.

Tough one here.

Here's mine at this point.
Go Hogs Go!

Huckleberry Pig

muskogee why do you like LSU? 

and i'm starting to think S. Alabama may cover against Tennessee.  Tenner looked awful last week and have Georgia next weekend.  May be caught looking ahead.  Also, S. Alabama coming off a bye

UAstudent13

Thoughts on OK State -18.5, Miami -18.5 and SC -7.5? Thinking Miami covers easily.. Opinions?

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 25, 2013, 10:51:35 am
muskogee why do you like LSU? 

and i'm starting to think S. Alabama may cover against Tennessee.  Tenner looked awful last week and have Georgia next weekend.  May be caught looking ahead.  Also, S. Alabama coming off a bye

I have a spread sheet that I run. Georgia generates more offense than LSU, but Georgia's defense isn't good. LSU has a much better offense this season and a really good defense. I think this line is upside down and unless there are LSU injuries or suspensions that are pending, I see this as more of a LSU -7 kind of game.
Go Hogs Go!

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on September 25, 2013, 10:59:47 am
I have a spread sheet that I run. Georgia generates more offense than LSU, but Georgia's defense isn't good. LSU has a much better offense this season and a really good defense. I think this line is upside down and unless there are LSU injuries or suspensions that are pending, I see this as more of a LSU -7 kind of game.

I agree 100%. LSU finally has an offense to go along with the athletes they possess on defense. LSU may be the SEC champs this year.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: UAstudent13 on September 25, 2013, 10:58:23 am
Thoughts on OK State -18.5, Miami -18.5 and SC -7.5? Thinking Miami covers easily.. Opinions?

like the teams but hate taking three road favorites

Huckleberry Pig

Find myself agreeing with ya'll - taking LSU + 3 -- 3* for my second pick of the week.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on September 25, 2013, 10:59:47 am
I have a spread sheet that I run. Georgia generates more offense than LSU, but Georgia's defense isn't good. LSU has a much better offense this season and a really good defense. I think this line is upside down and unless there are LSU injuries or suspensions that are pending, I see this as more of a LSU -7 kind of game.

I've capped this game at LSU -7 too. There's really no debate on which team has looked better thus far.

LSU- 34
UGA- 27

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 25, 2013, 11:39:15 am
I've capped this game at LSU -7 too. There's really no debate on which team has looked better thus far.

LSU- 34
UGA- 27

i'm on it with ya'll.  LSU always shows up for big games too, and road games don't seem to bother them

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 25, 2013, 11:39:15 am
I've capped this game at LSU -7 too. There's really no debate on which team has looked better thus far.

LSU- 34
UGA- 27

I am projecting LSU 41-Georgia 28.
Go Hogs Go!

DadVader1

Quote from: UAstudent13 on September 25, 2013, 10:58:23 am
Thoughts on OK State -18.5, Miami -18.5 and SC -7.5? Thinking Miami covers easily.. Opinions?

I like Miami.  My gut says SC, but my spreadsheets have UCF +7.5 in a few different trends that have been hitting at over 70%, so I'd approach that one with caution.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 25, 2013, 11:52:14 am
i'm on it with ya'll.  LSU always shows up for big games too, and road games don't seem to bother them

I'm not on them quite yet. A little more research to be done.

I have added Wazzu +10 vs. Stanford.

widespreadsooie

Dad Vader, any thing hitting on your spreadsheet regarding Wazzu/Stanford?

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 25, 2013, 12:59:22 pm
I'm not on them quite yet. A little more research to be done.

I have added Wazzu +10 vs. Stanford.

Might be a good bet, but it is a risk.
Go Hogs Go!

widespreadsooie

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on September 25, 2013, 01:17:05 pm
Might be a good bet, but it is a risk.

It's a small play, meant to put 1 unit out to the side.

Huckleberry Pig

Official Picks for Weekend of 9/28:


Navy -3 @ Western Kentucky -- 5*

LSU +3 @ Georgia -- 3*

Vanderbilt -19.5 vs UAB -- 3*

Oklahoma State -18 @ WVU -- 3*

Florida -12.5 @ Kentucky -- 3*

Ole Miss @ Alabama Over 55.5 -- 2*

South Alabama +19.5 @ Tennessee -- 1*



Great weekend of football, have 20 units on the line (more than normal). Hopefully make up for last Sunday. Good luck this weekend everyone

DadVader1

It didn't fall into any of the smaller trends that I like to see, but one combination of power systems that are pretty good when they agree on a favorite are picking Stanford to cover.  I would lean Stanford but don't plan on playing it.

It looks like, rushing - advantage Stanford, passing - advantage Wash St.,  scoring o vs. scoring d is about a wash, and Stanford has a big edge in third down efficiency and red zone efficiency.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: DadVader1 on September 25, 2013, 01:44:21 pm
It didn't fall into any of the smaller trends that I like to see, but one combination of power systems that are pretty good when they agree on a favorite are picking Stanford to cover.  I would lean Stanford but don't plan on playing it.

It looks like, rushing - advantage Stanford, passing - advantage Wash St.,  scoring o vs. scoring d is about a wash, and Stanford has a big edge in third down efficiency and red zone efficiency.

Appreciate the response. I played Wash. St. for the simple fact that it was a line that popped out to me as to many points when I initially scanned lines for this week. I'll read anywhere from 5-10 articles on lines like that to see if there's a reason I should go against my gut. This one cut it close with Stanford's front 7, but like you said Wash St. passes the ball well. If the TO's are kept to min. or none at all, I don't see this one getting out of hand and being a good ball game into the fourth quarter. Their game last season coming down to the wire at Stanford also played a part in this play.

ur

Stanford vs Wash. State game is in Seattle. I'm trying to figure out who will have the most fans there. I assume both have a strong alumni base in Seattle. I don't see Wazzu having the home field advantage (3pts) like they would have if played in Pullman.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: ur on September 25, 2013, 02:53:30 pm
Stanford vs Wash. State game is in Seattle. I'm trying to figure out who will have the most fans there. I assume both have a strong alumni base in Seattle. I don't see Wazzu having the home field advantage (3pts) like they would have if played in Pullman.

Palo Alto is about 12 hours from Seattle and Pullman is about 4. Doesn't say much for a home field advantage either way but you would have to lean Wazzu based off that.

widespreadsooie

LSU +3 locked and loaded. LSU D outplays Georgia's for the victory. ML play to possibly come later.

jdelo77

Heading to Vegas Friday , I love LSU +3 ...
Does anyone know if you can play parlays in the sports book ? Sorry I've never bet on sports in Vegas ( just horses )

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: jdelow77 on September 25, 2013, 05:29:17 pm
Heading to Vegas Friday , I love LSU +3 ...
Does anyone know if you can play parlays in the sports book ? Sorry I've never bet on sports in Vegas ( just horses )

:) dude you can play anything at a sports book!  Anything. If you aren't married or have kids you may never leave!
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: ur on September 25, 2013, 02:53:30 pm
Stanford vs Wash. State game is in Seattle. I'm trying to figure out who will have the most fans there. I assume both have a strong alumni base in Seattle. I don't see Wazzu having the home field advantage (3pts) like they would have if played in Pullman.

People love the Pirate!
Let's make some waves.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 25, 2013, 01:23:15 pm
It's a small play, meant to put 1 unit out to the side.

After a further look, that might be a really good play at WSU +10.
Go Hogs Go!