Games of Interest for the Hogs Today/Different Seeding Scenarios

[RyeHogFan]

Obviously the 4 o'clock game against South Carolina is of the utmost importance for us today, but I just wanted to share with everyone the other games that will be important for us today so you can plan your television viewing accordingly.

Ole Miss @ Tennessee 11:00 SECN
Alabama @ Georgia     3:00  ESPN2
Florida @Missouri        6:30  SECN

The best scenario for us is that we win along with Tennessee and Alabama.  This would make the Florida game inconsequential for us and it would give us the 5th seed in the tournament.

If we win and Ole Miss and Georgia win, we'll be the 7th seed due to head to head.

If we win and one of those two lose, then we are the 6th seed.  The 6th seed might actually be more desirable for us, since it would give us one more round before playing one of the top two seeds.

If we lose, then the Florida game becomes important.  If we lose, and Ole Miss and Florida win, then we drop to the 9th seed.

There are a few other scenarios but the worst case scenario would be for us to lose along with Ole Miss and Georgia losing, and Florida winning.  This would make for a 5-way tie for 6th place.  In the head to head percentage we would end up as the worst of the 5 teams having gone 1-3 against the other 4 teams, giving us the 10 seed playing against Ole Miss in our first game.

As you can see, the situation is very fluid today, with us possibly ending up as high as the 5 and as low as the 10 seed. 

[The real Hogules]

If the Old Myth Vs UT game were in Oxfart, I wouldn't hold out much hope for a Vol win, but they're a decent team when playing in Knoxville.

[Dominicanhog]

Thanks and good synopsis...

IMO, best case is we win, UGA win, Tenn win, Vandy win.....

Tenn winning keeps them in front of MSU and knocks OM out... it means we play UT not MSU in the first round... the uga win, gives us the sixth seed, which as you said, looks easier....we could play LSU and A&M before Kentucky, should Vandy win ...

lot of moving parts.. most important, win and hope for a loss of either UGA or OM...

[TNhawgfan]

TN is awful. 14 minutes without a field goal. There's one loss. My guess is bama loses too

[Dominicanhog]

TN is awful. 14 minutes without a field goal. There's one loss. My guess is bama loses too

yeah, so much for best case... now we really need Bama to win... Vandy's gone as well...

[Atlhogfan1]

Vandy losing big.  Looks like A&M will win the SEC reg season.  Wonder what the record lowest average NCAAT seed is for SEC teams in an NCAAT. 

[Dominicanhog]

Vandy losing big.  Looks like A&M will win the SEC reg season.  Wonder what the record lowest average NCAAT seed is for SEC teams in an NCAAT.

a couple years ago when UK, UF and UT went to E8+ ... UK played in the cc game as a 7 seed, UT was in the play in game.. UF may have been a 5/6 seed... not uncommon for sec to be the lowest seeded, least amount of teams..... it happens most every year... the irony is, even with repeated tournament success, there's still a bias against SEC in BB.

[Atlhogfan1]

a couple years ago when UK, UF and UT went to E8+ ... UK played in the cc game as a 7 seed, UT was in the play in game.. UF may have been a 5/6 seed... not uncommon for sec to be the lowest seeded, least amount of teams..... it happens most every year... the irony is, even with repeated tournament success, there's still a bias against SEC in BB.

No bias.  The conference has no depth compared to other power conferences.  Florida was the number one overall seed of the 2014 tournament.  Tenn went to the Sw16 with the benefit of playing 14 seed Mercer in the round of 32.  UK was an 8 seed. 

[Dominicanhog]

No bias.  The conference has no depth compared to other power conferences.  Florida was the number one overall seed of the 2014 tournament.  Tenn went to the Sw16 with the benefit of playing 14 seed Mercer in the round of 32.  UK was an 8 seed.

Every conference is top heavy...

look at history of bids, wins by lower seeds, avg wins per conf team in tourney.. winning percentage by conference... they are not the best but to get the 6th or 7th most bids and have top 3 in numerous categories I just mentioned..


This year will be a perfect example.. the SEC will be lucky to get 4 bids.. it should be 6 or 7... OM deserves a bid if many of the other conferences are going 6,7,8 deep in bids.... Vandy, UF, Bama, LSU can all make a case if we are letting an 8th seed A10 school in.... it happens every year..

[yraciv]

With the Ole Miss win, we will be the 9 seed with a loss today. Noon game every day, meet A&M in the next round, yuck! If we win though, we will be a 6 if Bama wins or 7 if Georgia wins.  Night games, easier first game, but we'd probably meet UK in the semis.  Second route sounds a little better to me.

[RyeHogFan]

Now that I have looked over it, and with the Ole Miss win, we actually need Georgia to lose now if we win against South Carolina.  There's no possible way for us to get the 5 seed anymore, but we can still get the 6 seed if we win and UGA loses.  If Georgia wins, then we'll be in a 4 way tie with them, Ole Miss, and USC-e.  The first tie-breaker is winning percentage vs. teams you are tied with.  Here's how that comes out:

(5th)UGA 3-1 
(6th)Ole Miss 2-2
(7th)Ark  1-2
(8th)USC  1-3

However, if Georgia loses and we win, then we would be in a 3 way tie with Ole Miss and USC.  In the first tie-breaker, we all come out as 1-1 head to head.   So it then goes to the second tiebreaker which is record against the 1 seed, then the 2, 3,4, etc.

We actually only need the 1 seed (Texas A&M) to decide this:

(5th)USC 1-0
(6th)Ark 1-1
(7th)Ole Miss 0-1

I know that seeding doesn't mean everything, but as I said before, it can make for a little bit easier path.

[Dominicanhog]

yep.. looks like with a victory, we'll play    bama... UK... LSU if Georgia wins

MSU, LSU and Kentucky.... with UGA loss ....  don't like MSU, they look like they are getting better and I'm sure they're scared of us after the last game... but this looks the easier row to hoe...

[Atlhogfan1]

Every conference is top heavy...

look at history of bids, wins by lower seeds, avg wins per conf team in tourney.. winning percentage by conference... they are not the best but to get the 6th or 7th most bids and have top 3 in numerous categories I just mentioned..


This year will be a perfect example.. the SEC will be lucky to get 4 bids.. it should be 6 or 7... OM deserves a bid if many of the other conferences are going 6,7,8 deep in bids.... Vandy, UF, Bama, LSU can all make a case if we are letting an 8th seed A10 school in.... it happens every year..

Why should it be 6 or 7?

It isn't about being top heavy.  The SEC has had that.  It is the lack of depth.  4-14 in the SEC

[Dominicanhog]

Why should it be 6 or 7?

It isn't about being top heavy.  The SEC has had that.  It is the lack of depth.  4-14 in the SEC

bias....use real numbers... not opinion..   http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nba/which-current-conferences-have-had-the-most-success-in-the-ncaa-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx

and they have done it with less bids than any Big 6 conferences except P12.... they deserve as many as any conference except ACC year in and year out .. 5 years, 10 years and even 30 years of proving it ( per this article) should be enough...

[ErieHog]

Why should it be 6 or 7?

It isn't about being top heavy.  The SEC has had that.  It is the lack of depth.  4-14 in the SEC

The SEC is probably a 5 bid league, with one of about four teams likely to 'play into' that last bid, somehow-  not everyone just on the wrong side of the bubble here, can lose, and someone will back into a 5th bid, most likely.

[RyeHogFan]

It appears that Miss State is going to beat Auburn with a sizable lead (as I type this Auburn has just cut the lead to single digits).  If they win, they are the 11 seed.  If they somehow manage to lose to Auburn, the 11 seed will go to Tennessee and MS St will drop down to the 13 seed. So, if we were to get the 6 seed, then it will be against either Tenner/MS St. 

If Georgia wins and we become the 7 seed, then we would play either Alabama/Florida.  If Florida beats Mizzou, we'll play Bama.  If Florida loses, we'll play them.

If we lose, we'll be the 8 or 9 depending on what Florida does, playing either Bama or Florida.

Since Ole Miss won, I don't believe we can drop to 10th now.  Anyways, the main thing for us to fight for now is an easier path, playing LSU in the second game as opposed to Kentucky, although as it's been said, Mississippi St will be difficult at the 11 seed.  Let's hope Auburn can pull off the comeback win so that we'd play Tennessee if everything works out for us to get the 6. 

[Atlhogfan1]

bias....use real numbers... not opinion..   http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nba/which-current-conferences-have-had-the-most-success-in-the-ncaa-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx

and they have done it with less bids than any Big 6 conferences except P12.... they deserve as many as any conference except ACC year in and year out .. 5 years, 10 years and even 30 years of proving it ( per this article) should be enough...

Real numbers not opinion?  You earlier stated Tenn went to the E8 and Florida was a 5 or 6 seed in the 2014 NCAAT both of which weren't true. 

Your link you are trying to use again demonstrates a lack of depth.  The SEC's win % in the first two rounds is the lowest of the power conferences and Florida and UK has had some repeated success helping the numbers for the later rounds.

It appears that Miss State is going to beat Auburn with a sizable lead (as I type this Auburn has just cut the lead to single digits).  If they win, they are the 11 seed.  If they somehow manage to lose to Auburn, the 11 seed will go to Tennessee and MS St will drop down to the 13 seed. So, if we were to get the 6 seed, then it will be against either Tenner/MS St. 

If Georgia wins and we become the 7 seed, then we would play either Alabama/Florida.  If Florida beats Mizzou, we'll play Bama.  If Florida loses, we'll play them.

If we lose, we'll be the 8 or 9 depending on what Florida does, playing either Bama or Florida.

Since Ole Miss won, I don't believe we can drop to 10th now.  Anyways, the main thing for us to fight for now is an easier path, playing LSU in the second game as opposed to Kentucky, although as it's been said, Mississippi St will be difficult at the 11 seed.  Let's hope Auburn can pull off the comeback win so that we'd play Tennessee if everything works out for us to get the 6. 

Miss St has been a competitive team this last month.  Out of the bottom feeders, they may be the last choice to want to play right now. 

The SEC is probably a 5 bid league, with one of about four teams likely to 'play into' that last bid, somehow-  not everyone just on the wrong side of the bubble here, can lose, and someone will back into a 5th bid, most likely.

Maybe with the help of the 2 extra spots left open by Louisville and SMU.  The conference has more mediocrity and less bad/non competitive this season. 

[Atlhogfan1]

I mentioned the NCAAT seeding earlier as I saw Lunardi had SC as one of the last 4 with byes.  What has been considered one of the SEC's 3-4 near certainties could be heading for a double digit seed. 

[Dominicanhog]

I mentioned the NCAAT seeding earlier as I saw Lunardi had SC as one of the last 4 with byes.  What has been considered one of the SEC's 3-4 near certainties could be heading for a double digit seed.

they lose tonight and in the first round it could be NIT... the SEC could get as few as 2 teams if Vandy, LSU, and SC all lose in the first round.. guess they could give one to OM if they won a couple...

[Atlhogfan1]

they lose tonight and in the first round it could be NIT... the SEC could get as few as 2 teams if Vandy, LSU, and SC all lose in the first round.. guess they could give one to OM if they won a couple...

I'm with Erie in I don't think the nightmare scenario will play out.  I think V and SC get in unless something weird happens in the SECT. 

[yraciv]

Come on Bama! I've decided 6 seed is our best chance to make a run.

[ErieHog]

I'm with Erie in I don't think the nightmare scenario will play out.  I think V and SC get in unless something weird happens in the SECT. 

I'd put it at an 65% probability that the TAMU-KY-Vandy group is joined by 2 of the SC-Alabama-Florida- wild card group,  with almost all of those scenarios involving SC winning their first game in the SEC Tourney.

[Atlhogfan1]

I'd put it at an 65% probability that the TAMU-KY-Vandy group is joined by 2 of the SC-Alabama-Florida- wild card group,  with almost all of those scenarios involving SC winning their first game in the SEC Tourney.

Now apparently OM is in the mix. 

[ErieHog]

Now apparently OM is in the mix. 

I think OM would have to win 3 games/get to the finals, to have an outside bubble shot.   Really, there are 6 different scenarios about who plays in the finals that could give you any of a handful of extra teams.

[Atlhogfan1]

I think OM would have to win 3 games/get to the finals, to have an outside bubble shot.   Really, there are 6 different scenarios about who plays in the finals that could give you any of a handful of extra teams.

Bama was playing UGa close but it looks like that opportunity for a late road win is slipping away.