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To those fretting about us being ranked 12th in the SEC (recruiting class), I say this . . .

Started by WizardofhOgZ, February 04, 2015, 03:17:49 pm

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WizardofhOgZ


You have to look at how these classes are ranked.  They take the number of recruits and add up all of their "star" rankings.  And, because "those team's" (Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, etc.) 16th-25th recruits "out-star" ours and most others, they deservedly finish on top of the recruiting rankings.

I'm not sure that we'll EVER see the day when our 65th or 75th player is "as good" (or at least, as highly ranked) as Alabama's or LSU's.   However, while it's always good to have depth all the way to the end of the bench, the MOST critical thing is to (a) have premier FIRST string talent; and then (B) to not have much of a drop-off (if any) should any of the top-line players get hurt (i.e., second team).  In other words, if you can line up with them man-for-man through about 45-50 players, 95% of the time that's the group who will actually play and decide a game.  So, if we can get 10-15 "keepers" a recruiting class, we ought to be competitive with the "Big Boys".  I think we can (and are) doing that.

I feel that if we are able to recruit classes this good the next 2 years, we WILL win at least 1 SEC Championship while they are on campus.  I don't mean exactly the same mix of skills/positional players - just comparable talent across the board.

It's a cinch that we're going to attract and sign elite OL recruits - that much has been demonstrated already.  Now, we are building depth in the OL and filling "holes" elsewhere.  Two more classes like this and we'll have talent AND depth across the board.  In other words, we'll have what Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and Florida traditionally have put on the field over the last 20 years.


Qhog


 

snoblind

full disclosure...  I've never spent any real time dissecting how any of the services "rank" their classes.  With that being said I was looking at one of them the other night that had us 21st and does averages the rankings on a scale of 5. 

Had Bama at 1 with a 4 - us @ 21st with 3.22.  The 10 or so directly above us were within a couple of tenths of a point better than us.  Given all the different things that actually go into winning football games not sure being ranked 21 or 11 or even really makes that big of a difference.  Especially when one takes into consideration who is actually assigning those number ratings to the players.  Simply one of the trees in the forest.

Pig In The City

Each year should get easier for recruiting. More wins, more recruits. CBB is just getting started.

forrest city joe

We just finished with a top 25 class folks. i will take it every year. we can win the sec with 4 classes like this.


SquidBilly

I'll take classes like what we just got and then rely on our coaches abilities to develop them.

Sed76

I don't really keep up with recruiting so to someone like me it is a little alarming. How does a school like Tennessee which has been down longer than we have suddenly get a top 5 class while we are dead last in the SEC West? Just seems odd to me.

JansterZ71

Rivals just takes your top 20 players and each player is assigned points based on their rivals ranking (it's a scale not the stars ranking). Your total score is added up and ranked.
I believe that this is a practical world and that I can count only on what I earn. Therefore, I believe in work, hard work.
I believe in education, which gives me the knowledge to work wisely and trains my mind and my hands to work skillfully. I believe in honesty and truthfulness, without which I cannot win the respect and confidence of my fellow men. I believe in a sound mind, in a sound body and a spirit that is not afraid, and in clean sports that develop these qualities. I believe in obedience to law because it protects the rights of all. I believe in the human touch, which cultivates sympathy with my fellow men and mutual helpfulness and brings happiness for all. I believe in my Country, because it is a land of freedom and because it is my own home, and that I can best serve that country by "doing justly, loving mercy, and walking humbly with my God."

Paul

Quote from: Sed76 on February 04, 2015, 06:18:35 pm
I don't really keep up with recruiting so to someone like me it is a little alarming. How does a school like Tennessee which has been down longer than we have suddenly get a top 5 class while we are dead last in the SEC West? Just seems odd to me.
whether it was Fulmer, Kiffin or Jones, Tenn has had the booster money to do whatever it takes to sign highly rated classes.  You just have to look at their off the field problems to see that their recruits are not #Uncommon!

Hogwild

Quote from: Sed76 on February 04, 2015, 06:18:35 pm
I don't really keep up with recruiting so to someone like me it is a little alarming. How does a school like Tennessee which has been down longer than we have suddenly get a top 5 class while we are dead last in the SEC West? Just seems odd to me.


I think Tennessee had a really good class last year. Jones seems to be a great recruiter

Danny J

Quote from: Hogwild on February 04, 2015, 07:11:56 pm

I think Tennessee had a really good class last year. Jones seems to be a great recruiter
Like Freeze....doing less with more.

TeedupHigh

Many people always want what we don't have, amazing, Coach says he don't guy by rankings, he uses his on system and it seems to work for him. Potential is here with this class, seems to be better each year.  Reed is gonna make people forget what's his name, so will JoJo.  Both of these guys will be ready to play next year and sounds like we got those Linebacker's we need.  I am excited to see what this bunch has for us.

 

3kgthog

Quote from: Sed76 on February 04, 2015, 06:18:35 pm
I don't really keep up with recruiting so to someone like me it is a little alarming. How does a school like Tennessee which has been down longer than we have suddenly get a top 5 class while we are dead last in the SEC West? Just seems odd to me.

You know how. They've been having decent classes even during their down times. They just had terrible coaches.

Thepigdoctor

If we get 10 4-5 stars a year, that's half the team in four years. When CBB took over, we barely had a quarter. Sure the Bama's and LSU's will have 75% or more of their roster most years, but you only start 22 and certainly don't play 75% of your team in a single game. This class got us one step closer to having the depth across the board we need. We needed the two deep depth to rival other programs and we're almost there. Sure our 1-50 might not stack up to Bama's player for player, but...

I believe CBB and staff are elite when it comes to evaluating talent and getting everything they can out of players (see his record of putting unheralded recruits in the NFL), which in turn adds up to a fighting chance.

Just this guys opinion, which doesn't amount to much, but I see us being one more class like this away from being a legit contender year in and year out, instead of a dark horse, sexy pick.

reddogjcss

I'm very happy with this class. Stars tell what kid is doing right now in HIGH SCHOOL has nothing to what they will be or do in 1, 2, 3, years.
Like super bowl it guarantees nothing and means very little.
All 2&3 in super bowl.

Hawgzinbowlz

Recruiting rankings are based on a stand alone formula that rates the total accumulation of points without factoring in team needs and how a specific recruiting class fills those needs.
I like how our 2015 signing class is filling our needs and building depth, particularly in the back seven on D, while continuing the giving of attention to other positions on both sides of the ball. Our physical style requires depth to withstand the SEC pounding that is inevitable. It's coming.
One of the most important variables, relative to a players/teams success, lies in pure coaching, player retention and personal player growth. Coaching and development are still the best difference-makers... A lot of individual development is required to happen between the time a player comes onto campus and when he leaves, if he is going to contribute in a meaningful manner. Possessing the ability to develop as a player seems to be a part of the equation when we choose our recruits.
CBBs history in player development is well documented and his ability to take lower star recruits and develop them will need to be unceasing, if we are to continue our improvement and progress toward Atlanta.
More success, better recruiting...Better recruiting, more success. They go hand in hand and it will take all of Coach Bielema's/Hog Staffs developmental/coaching skills to keep us moving forward.
The man knows what he is doing and has surrounded himself with very skilled assistants who have put us in position for future success. Top tier coaches and recruiters.
We needed the Texas Bowl win, for 2015 recruiting success. We got the win and have an excellent class to look forward to for the 2015 season, with the bowl win a contributing factor.
Player development is our path forward, for any elite success we would hope for.
The Hogs are on track for success and congratulations to CBB/Hog Staff for the recruited 2015 class.

" GO HOGS "

An interesting read, if you have some time...
http://touchdownalabama.net/looking-to-the-stars/

Hawghiggs

 Compare our SEC ranking vs. Other conferences.

SEC- 11th
Big12- 3rd
Big10- 4th
ACC -4th
Pac12- 6th
AAC- 1st

Scott7703

Win football games on the field and all will be well. Recruiting rankings are great and I want to sign the #1 class every year and get each player we want but at the end of the day winning football games, run a good/clean program, and graduate kids and ill be happy. Go Hogs!

tophawg19

stars rate a player on skill but not fit and even the skill level is a myth because you can't compare them side by side . by ranking Texas was probably 10 points better than us maybe more . Problem was , they recruited highly rated athletes who didn't really fit any system so they are a jumbled talented mess . we on the other hand are a less talented[stars]  team recruited to fit our system. same can be said of Baylor and TCU both of which torched the longhorns even 3with less talent
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Hogfaniam

"My dog Sam eats purple flowers"

JansterZ71

Quote from: Sed76 on February 04, 2015, 06:18:35 pm
I don't really keep up with recruiting so to someone like me it is a little alarming. How does a school like Tennessee which has been down longer than we have suddenly get a top 5 class while we are dead last in the SEC West? Just seems odd to me.
Knoxville is relatively close to fertile recruiting grounds and a pretty cool city.  Not to mention awesome tradition and the second most winningest program in SEC history.  They are on the rise for sure.
I believe that this is a practical world and that I can count only on what I earn. Therefore, I believe in work, hard work.
I believe in education, which gives me the knowledge to work wisely and trains my mind and my hands to work skillfully. I believe in honesty and truthfulness, without which I cannot win the respect and confidence of my fellow men. I believe in a sound mind, in a sound body and a spirit that is not afraid, and in clean sports that develop these qualities. I believe in obedience to law because it protects the rights of all. I believe in the human touch, which cultivates sympathy with my fellow men and mutual helpfulness and brings happiness for all. I believe in my Country, because it is a land of freedom and because it is my own home, and that I can best serve that country by "doing justly, loving mercy, and walking humbly with my God."

ARpjfan

Quote from: forrest city joe on February 04, 2015, 05:39:53 pm
We just finished with a top 25 class folks. i will take it every year. we can win the sec with 4 classes like this.

2 SEC Wins this season and just finished with the 7th best recruiting class in a 7-team division.  Looks to me like the gap is widening, not narrowing.  Got to get better than everyone else to beat everyone else and that isn't happening yet.

vandybuff

And may I add rankings tell how an athlete 'has' performed .... which is never an absolute indication of how he 'will' perform.
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lrcentral

Quote from: ARpjfan on February 04, 2015, 09:25:33 pm
2 SEC Wins this season and just finished with the 7th best recruiting class in a 7-team division.  Looks to me like the gap is widening, not narrowing.  Got to get better than everyone else to beat everyone else and that isn't happening yet.

So 6"4 240 in FL is different than 6"4 240 in Ark? Recruiting stars were invented to sell papers, magazines, and get eye balls to look at tv.

Look at the NFL. After a min of 3 years in college, they still can not draft sure fire players in the nfl. That is after they see them play over 40 games.

So what hope do these recruiting services have of ranking a high school kid? Zero.

HOGINTENNESSEE

Really not very much if any difference between our class USCe, Ole Piss Or Miss State.

OneTuskOverTheLine™

 What if we had gotten Porter Gustin and Iman Marshall. Our class would have ranked much much higher. Do ANY of you really believe those two guys would make us much much better..? Hellz Naw..! Celebrate baby..!
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ARpjfan

Just looking back at the last four years, Ark had the 29, 23, 28, 21 ranked recruiting class (2014-2011).  That means a recruiting class better than 75% of the country.  This tells me that should equate to 7-9 wins per season.  Hasn't been happening yet, and this class is just like those.

hogcard1964

Decent recruiting year, but we have to do better than schools like South Carolina, Mizzou, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy, Ole Miss, and Miss St. on a regular basis.

I can understand Bama, UGA, LSU, Florida, A & M, and maybe-MAYBE Auburn out recruiting us, but the rest... can't happen.

Ragnar Hogbrok

Quote from: ARpjfan on February 05, 2015, 07:58:32 am
Just looking back at the last four years, Ark had the 29, 23, 28, 21 ranked recruiting class (2014-2011).  That means a recruiting class better than 75% of the country.  This tells me that should equate to 7-9 wins per season.  Hasn't been happening yet, and this class is just like those.

Look back at the last five years and look at the turmoil this program has endured.  If you can't see that Petrino and Slappy the Clown forced us to restart the entire program, then you're blind or you have an agenda.

We are slightly ahead of schedule, in my opinion, of where a team should be after the thermonuclear disaster that occurred to our football program when Petrino wrecked his motorcycle in a ditch with a leggy blonde on the back.
"Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." ― H.L. Mencken

Hogville prediction formula:

1.  Insert bad news prediction. A loss, a recruit going elsewhere, a coach leaving, etc.
2.  Tag "hope I'm wrong," on the end.
3a.  Enjoy a correct prediction.
3b.  Act like you're relieved you're wrong and celebrate with everyone else.

mizzouman

Recruiting rankings are meaningless.  PERIOD.  A 2 star kid on Rivals may be a 5 star kid for that team.  It depends on the needs of the team. 

Also, Rivals star rankings is mostly based on who is recruiting a kid.  I'm convinced of that, and there is proof of that. 

Don't worry about rankings.  Let the play on the field determine how good a team is.

PorkRinds

Quote from: Sed76 on February 04, 2015, 06:18:35 pm
I don't really keep up with recruiting so to someone like me it is a little alarming. How does a school like Tennessee which has been down longer than we have suddenly get a top 5 class while we are dead last in the SEC West? Just seems odd to me.

Tenner also had the largest recruiting budget in the country...

PorkRinds

Quote from: ARpjfan on February 05, 2015, 07:58:32 am
Just looking back at the last four years, Ark had the 29, 23, 28, 21 ranked recruiting class (2014-2011).  That means a recruiting class better than 75% of the country.  This tells me that should equate to 7-9 wins per season.  Hasn't been happening yet, and this class is just like those.

We won 7 last season...

howie76

Quote from: ARpjfan on February 05, 2015, 07:58:32 am
Just looking back at the last four years, Ark had the 29, 23, 28, 21 ranked recruiting class (2014-2011).  That means a recruiting class better than 75% of the country.  This tells me that should equate to 7-9 wins per season.  Hasn't been happening yet, and this class is just like those.
didnt we just win 7 last year?

Hogarusa

Recruiting rankings aren't perfect but they are a great indicator of teams that will win conference titles and national titles.  12th isn't going to cut it any year.  I trust in Bielema and the staff with development but every staff in the SEC outside Vandy is tremendous and develop players into NFL caliber.  We need to get up in the top 5 in conference on a yearly basis if we ever want to hang a first SEC champion banner.  Certainly can't finish last in the division. 

The good news is that I don't see any 3-5 win seasons on the horizon, I can take that. 
I'll ride the wave where it takes me

rtr

12th in the SEC but 22nd nationally, I am not sure these rankings mean much of anything.
The more smites the more intelligent I get.

Hogfaniam

Who was the last NC winner/recipient that averaged a #20 ish recruiting class for the four previous years?  I wouldn't know where to look.
"My dog Sam eats purple flowers"

Großer Kriegschwein

Quote from: Hogfaniam on February 05, 2015, 09:06:46 am
Who was the last NC winner/recipient that averaged a #20 ish recruiting class for the four previous years?  I wouldn't know where to look.

Oregon has a pretty successful program and over the last 6 years have averaged 16th in the nation and 3rd in the PAC-12. Over the last decade they have averaged 20th.

ADD: Played Auburn in the NC game (nearly won too) and the previous 4 years of recruiting rankings averaged at 28th in the nation.
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bigred223

Outside of the top 10 classes, recruiting rankings are just a bunch of crap. What were missouri's recruiting rankings the last few years? There is no difference whatsoever between our class and the class ranked 15th. All subjective.

Hogarusa

Quote from: Großer Kriegschwein on February 05, 2015, 09:13:50 am
Oregon has a pretty successful program and over the last 6 years have averaged 16th in the nation and 3rd in the PAC-12. Over the last decade they have averaged 20th.

ADD: Played Auburn in the NC game (nearly won too) and the previous 4 years of recruiting rankings averaged at 28th in the nation.

But they are the 3rd best team in the Pac 12 in recruiting, which is key.  They lost to 2 national champions that had a far superior recruiting ranking than they did.

There is enough evidence to show that recruiting rankings are not crap and a good indicator of success. 

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1923584-quantifying-the-impact-of-recruiting-on-bcs-champions-over-the-last-decade
I'll ride the wave where it takes me

ARpjfan

Quote from: WizardofhOgZ on February 04, 2015, 03:17:49 pm
You have to look at how these classes are ranked.  They take the number of recruits and add up all of their "star" rankings.  And, because "those team's" (Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, etc.) 16th-25th recruits "out-star" ours and most others, they deservedly finish on top of the recruiting rankings.


Those 16-25 players in a class is why a team wins a championship, it's called depth.  Ohio State just won the title with a QB that was one of those 16-15.  He replaced the guys that were in the 1-15 range.  They lost like 6 players this season from their 2-deep and replaced them with guys that were 16-25 in a class and the talent of these players is why they won.  Oregon made it to the title game doing the same thing, lost three of their top five pass entering and in the playoffs and made it to the title game.  You gotta have a strong class all the way through, and rankings bear out how strong those classes are.


DeltaBoy

Another post on the Ville today showed that Coach BB Recruits grow and his classes always re rank higher 4-5 years later.
If the South should lose, it means that the history of the heroic struggle will be written by the enemy, that our youth will be trained by Northern school teachers, will be impressed by all of the influences of history and education to regard our gallant dead as traitors and our maimed veterans as fit subjects for derision.
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than the Arkansans--fearless, brave, and oftentimes courageous beyond
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ARpjfan

Quote from: Hogarusa on February 05, 2015, 10:48:30 am
But they are the 3rd best team in the Pac 12 in recruiting, which is key.  They lost to 2 national champions that had a far superior recruiting ranking than they did.

There is enough evidence to show that recruiting rankings are not crap and a good indicator of success. 

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1923584-quantifying-the-impact-of-recruiting-on-bcs-champions-over-the-last-decade


Everyone needs to read the article he linked in his post.  This is from the story:

"Based on the numbers, the average recruiting ranking for the last 10 champions is 7.4. 

Furthermore, only four times since 2003 has a BCS champion had a recruiting class ranked No. 20 or worse five years before they won the title.

The exceptions are the 2005 Texas Longhorns (No. 20 in 2005), the 2006 Florida Gators (No. 20 in 2002), the 2007 LSU Tigers (No. 22 in 2005) and the 2010 Auburn Tigers (No. 20 in 2008).

No BCS champ has signed a class lower than No. 22 in the five-year period leading up to the title."

Ignore or discredit the rankings all you want, and you can always nitpick out your examples of how they didn't hold up, but for every 4/5 Star that didn't pan out, you can find a 1 or 2 star that excelled.  It all averages out.  Rankings do mean something, and the rankings this year show the gap between the other SEC West schools and Arkansas is widening, not closing.

jkstock04

Quote from: mizzouman on February 05, 2015, 08:07:16 am
Recruiting rankings are meaningless.  PERIOD.  A 2 star kid on Rivals may be a 5 star kid for that team.  It depends on the needs of the team. 

Also, Rivals star rankings is mostly based on who is recruiting a kid.  I'm convinced of that, and there is proof of that. 

Don't worry about rankings.  Let the play on the field determine how good a team is.
This theory gets thrown around on here a lot, I don't buy it.

Take LSU for example...they have a few 2* guys signed this year. In particular a 2* qb. According to you guys, he should've/would've automatically been bumped up to a 3* or 4* just by committing to a school like LSU. Surprise surprise didn't happen.
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ARpjfan

Quote from: lrcentral on February 04, 2015, 09:41:58 pm
So 6"4 240 in FL is different than 6"4 240 in Ark? Recruiting stars were invented to sell papers, magazines, and get eye balls to look at tv.

In the 247 Player Rating this year, there were 35 Five Stars.  19 of them were from California, Florida, Texas, Georgia, and Ohio.  This isn't a regional bias, it is because these states are the ones where football is part of their fabric.  These are also five of the most populous states in the US.  There are more kids in these states, football is taken more seriously starting at a younger age, and the high school competition is head and shoulders above what it is in other states.  These kids face the best each week, not like a kid in Arkansas who plays WR and may possibly match up with one CB during the season who will play college football, these kids see that kind of CB on the other side of the line 4-6 times each season.  Recruiting services can see a lot more how that player will be in college based on playing against the best.

SEC fans talk non-stop about how they are the best because they play in the SEC against other top schools/players each week, well recruiting services use the same logic when rating HS players.

Tripod1

Quote from: ARpjfan on February 05, 2015, 10:58:48 am

Everyone needs to read the article he linked in his post.  This is from the story:

"Based on the numbers, the average recruiting ranking for the last 10 champions is 7.4. 

Furthermore, only four times since 2003 has a BCS champion had a recruiting class ranked No. 20 or worse five years before they won the title.

The exceptions are the 2005 Texas Longhorns (No. 20 in 2005), the 2006 Florida Gators (No. 20 in 2002), the 2007 LSU Tigers (No. 22 in 2005) and the 2010 Auburn Tigers (No. 20 in 2008).

No BCS champ has signed a class lower than No. 22 in the five-year period leading up to the title."

Ignore or discredit the rankings all you want, and you can always nitpick out your examples of how they didn't hold up, but for every 4/5 Star that didn't pan out, you can find a 1 or 2 star that excelled.  It all averages out.  Rankings do mean something, and the rankings this year show the gap between the other SEC West schools and Arkansas is widening, not closing.
Pretty telling stats regardless of what others want to say.  I do believe we are headed in the right direction and believe this coach and staff will continue to improve in the win loss column.  I'm not sure a NC is in my future (I'm 65) according to the data above.

Großer Kriegschwein

Quote from: Hogarusa on February 05, 2015, 10:48:30 am
But they are the 3rd best team in the Pac 12 in recruiting, which is key.  They lost to 2 national champions that had a far superior recruiting ranking than they did.

There is enough evidence to show that recruiting rankings are not crap and a good indicator of success. 

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1923584-quantifying-the-impact-of-recruiting-on-bcs-champions-over-the-last-decade

Oregons rankings didn't climb until they had success. Keep that in mind.
Oregon WAS the second best team in the country that year. With an average 28th ranking in national rankings.

I don't read bleacher report. If I want good fiction, I'll listen o FCJ on DTS.
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OLDHOG

Quote from: mizzouman on February 05, 2015, 08:07:16 am
Recruiting rankings are meaningless.  PERIOD.  A 2 star kid on Rivals may be a 5 star kid for that team.  It depends on the needs of the team. 

Also, Rivals star rankings is mostly based on who is recruiting a kid.  I'm convinced of that, and there is proof of that. 

Don't worry about rankings.  Let the play on the field determine how good a team is.
Absolutely 100% correct. Thanks for posting mizzouman.

LJHOG

It is not the class ranking that concerns me as much as this.  How many of Alabama's, LSU's, etc top targets at each position do they sign vs. how many do we sign.  I would confidently predict we sign a lower percentage our targets than those schools.