Bubble Time

[Adam Stokes]

With Florida State losing on Sunday it should bump us up to +20 as a more solid 7 seed. I could even see us potentially getting up to a 5 seed on some brackets if we were able to win out the regular season due to them both being Q1 victories.

Bracket alignment before Sunday's games:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 Ohio State
+29 Gonzaga
+28 Kentucky
+27 Rhode Island
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 Michigan
+25 TCU
+24 W Nevada vs Colorado State
+23 W Houston vs East Carolina
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 Seton Hall
+21 L Florida State @ NC State
+20 Texas A&M
+19 Arkansas
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 Creighton
+17 Florida
+16 Oklahoma
+15 Butler
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 Arizona State
+13 Miami FL
+12 Alabama
+11 Missouri 
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 Virginia Tech
+9 St Mary's
+8 W NC State vs Florida State
+7 Kansas State
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 USC
+5 St Bonaventure
+4 Providence
+3 Texas
+2 Louisville
+1 L UCLA @ Colorado (Sunday)
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* Middle Tennessee State vs UAB
-1 Baylor 13/30 Brackets
-2 Syracuse 9/30
-3 Mississippi State 6/30
-4 Boise State 4/30
-5 Washington 3/30
-6 LSU   2/30

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[Adam Stokes]

Rhode Island lost to a no-good St Joes team at home which will drop them a lot. Our win should very well put us as a solid 6 seed.

Bracket alignment before Tuesday's games:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 Ohio State
+29 Gonzaga
+28 Kentucky
+27 L Rhode Island vs Saint Joes - Rhode Island was being buoyed up in part by no bad losses. This could drop them to a 7 seed.
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 Michigan
+25 W TCU vs Kansas State
+24 Nevada
+23 Houston
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 Seton Hall
+21 Texas A&M
+20 W Arkansas vs #14 Auburn
+19 W Creighton vs DePaul
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 W Florida @ Alabama
+17 L Oklahoma @ Baylor
+16 Butler
+15 W Miami FL @ #9 UNC - Huge win, will put them on our tail.
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 Florida State
+13 Virginia Tech
+12 Arizona State
+11 L Alabama vs Florida - even with Alabama in free-fall they should still be alright with all the teams under them losing
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 NC State
+9 W Missouri @ Vanderbilt
+8 St Mary's
+7 USC
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6  L Kansas State @ TCU
+5 Providence
+4 W St Bonaventure vs Davidson
+3 Louisville
+2 Texas
+1 W Baylor vs Oklahoma
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* Middle Tennessee State
-1 UCLA 
-2 Syracuse
-3 L Mississippi State vs Tennessee
-4 Washington
-5 L Boise State @ SDSU
-6 Nebraska
-7 Marquette
-8 Temple

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[niels_boar]

Michigan and TCU have 4 Group-I wins, Nevada 2.  We have 6.  If we win at Mizzou, only Houston has a good case among the #6-seeds to be above us IMO.

[RaisinHog]

How A&M Is a 7 blows my mind

[ErykofArkansas]

surely some of those idiots who still are voting us an 10 - 11 or 12 seed will change their minds by this point right?     Who am i kidding they probably will lower us.

[hogmolar]

SEC starting to fall into place. The eight contenders are getting more locked in, and it looks like MSU will be the team fighting for the 9th with Georgia struggling and LSU's low RPI.

Wednesday results and Thursday games:

---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 Alabama
+13 Arizona State vs USC
+12 W Texas A&M @ Auburn - Huge win, should move them into safe for now
+11 Missouri
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 Louisville vs Georgia Tech
+9 Providence
+8 Washington @ Oregon
+7 Arkansas
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 L NC State @ Virginia Tech
+5 Houston vs SMU
+4 USC @ Arizona State
+3 Boise State
+2 W Virginia Tech vs NC State
+1  Syracuse
---- Bubble Line ----
-0 Middle Tennessee State (projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large) vs Rice
-1 W Kansas State @ Texas - Big win, Texas was at +14, so they should be on this list in the coming days
-2 UCLA @ Arizona
-3 Western Kentucky
-4 SMU @ Houston
-5 Mississippi State
-6 L LSU @ Florida - LSU has 6 Top 50 wins, but their RPI (81) will be hard to overcome
-7 W St Bonaventure vs Saint Louis
-8 L Georgia @ Vanderbilt - Ouch, should keep Georgia out unless they go on a run
-9 Temple
-10 L Maryland @ Penn State
-11 W Marquette @ Seton Hall - Big road win vs a 5 Seed

http://bracketmatrix.com/

Thanks so much for keeping this up to date Adam, I check this thing a few times a week.  I don't want cloud up this thread but I just want to remind us where we were on Feb 8th.  Wow what a difference this month has made. 

[Polecat]

Love this thread. Nice work Adam and I look forward to your latest update

[WillsWorld]

What has A&M done to deserve a 7 seed? Losing record in the SEC plus they've been sliding since we spanked them 2 weeks ago. We have to keep winning and at least get a 6 seed. We don't want another 2nd round exit to a 1 or 2 seed again.

[Adam Stokes]

What has A&M done to deserve a 7 seed? Losing record in the SEC plus they've been sliding since we spanked them 2 weeks ago. We have to keep winning and at least get a 6 seed. We don't want another 2nd round exit to a 1 or 2 seed again.

How A&M Is a 7 blows my mind

They still have more quality wins than us. ESPN has them 7-7 vs the BPI Top 50 while we are 5-6. Very strong non-con schedule with a #6 RPI and #13 SOS (whereas ours is #22 & #83.) Essentially their wins @USC and nuetral vs WV gives them a 2 game buffer on us, which is exactly what we have made up on them in conference play and why we are side by side to each other on the S-curves. We should pass them regardless of whether they win @ Georgia tonight, already have on Lunardis bracket that came out this morning, and are +12 to them on bracketville's s-curve.

Makes you wonder how high we would've been if OU, OSU, Minnesota, and Uconn didn't all underachieve, though OU has really only underachieved the past month, most didn't have them making the tournament before the season. Our opponents would've given us a non-con SOS of 20 if they had simply played as well as they did last year. We'd be at a 4 seed right now. Administration put us in a position to do well, our opponents just didn't hold up on their end.

[Adam Stokes]

Notes:

- Conference tournaments are beginning to kick off.

- Inched into a 6 seed since the Hogs jumped from +20 to +23 with the win.

- Alabama has dropped from a +22 to +8 during their 4 game skid, whereas we have risen from +7 to +23 since the start of the thread

- Two good trap games right above us for Houston and Nevada, could move up higher if things go the right way.

- RI dropped from +27 to +19 with their bad loss.

- MSU let up a great opportunity having Tenner at home. They need to win @LSU and pickup a game or two in the SECT to get on the right side.

- Three Big12 teams hugging the bubble, I'd love nothing more than for all three to get knocked off. If it ended today as shown below they would get 8 of 10 teams in, yuck.

Bracket alignment before Wednesday's games and Wednesday schedule:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 Ohio State
+29 Kentucky vs Ole Miss
+28 Gonzaga
+27 Michigan
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 TCU
+25 Nevada @ UNLV
+24 Houston @ SMU
+23 Arkansas
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 Florida
+21 Seton Hall vs #4 Villanova
+20 Texas A&M @ Georgia
+19 Rhode Island
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 Miami FL
+17 Creighton
+16 Virginia Tech
+15 Butler @ St Johns
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 NC State 
+13 Oklahoma 
+12 Arizona State
+11 Florida State @ #18 Clemson
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 Missouri
+9 St Mary's
+8 Alabama 
+7 USC
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 St Bonaventure
+5 Providence @ Xavier
+4 Louisville
+3 Kansas State
+2 Baylor
+1 Texas
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* Middle Tennessee State
-1 UCLA 
-2 Syracuse
-3 Washington
-4 Nebraska
-5 Marquette 
-6 Western Kentucky
-7 Mississippi State


* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[GoHogs1091]

What has A&M done to deserve a 7 seed? Losing record in the SEC plus they've been sliding since we spanked them 2 weeks ago. We have to keep winning and at least get a 6 seed. We don't want another 2nd round exit to a 1 or 2 seed again.

Texas A&M and Alabama don't deserve to be in the NCAAT.

If they somehow get in, then that means actual deserving teams from other conferences got left out to make room for 2 underachieving SEC teams.

[RyeHogFan]

So are there really any teams that we should be rooting for or against as far as helping our seeding? For instance, would it benefit us more for Kentucky or Florida to win Saturday? Could we potentially jump Kentucky if they lose or would that make Florida jump us?

[razorback1829]

So are there really any teams that we should be rooting for or against as far as helping our seeding? For instance, would it benefit us more for Kentucky or Florida to win Saturday? Could we potentially jump Kentucky if they lose or would that make Florida jump us?

If we win Saturday, it won't matter. We will be at least number 4.

[RyeHogFan]

If we win Saturday, it won't matter. We will be at least number 4.

I'm sorry.  I should have clarified.  I wasn't talking about SEC standings.  I was talking about all of the S-curve and NCAA tourney seeding that Adam Stokes has been posting here.  That's my bad.

[Adam Stokes]

Bracket alignment before Thursday's games and Thursday schedule:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 Kentucky
+29 Arizona vs Stanford
+28 Gonzaga
+27 W Michigan vs Iowa
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 TCU
+25 Nevada
+24 Houston
+23 Arkansas
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 Florida
+21 Miami FLv
+20 Texas A&M
+19 Rhode Island
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 Virginia Tech
+17 Seton Hall 
+16 Creighton
+15 L NC State @ Georgia Tech
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 Butler
+13 Oklahoma 
+12 Missouri
+11 W Arizona State vs California
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 St Mary's
+9 Florida State
+8 USC
+7 Alabama 
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 St Bonaventure
+5 Kansas State
+4 L Louisville vs #1 Virginia - Wow, if you haven't seen the ending to this one
+3 Providence
+2 Baylor
+1 Texas
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* W Middle Tennessee State vs Western Kentucky - MTSU is technically up to +4 now, and I will move them in if they win tonight as they'll have the #21 RPI. They'll likely get an at-large regardless of their conference tournament. If they lose in their tournament it'll kick out whoever is at +1.
-1 UCLA 
-2 Nebraska
-3 Mississippi State
-4 L Western Kentucky @ MTSU
-5 W Washington vs Oregon St
-6 Marquette 
-7 Syracuse
-8 Utah

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[/quote]

[PORKULATOR]

Bubble my ass! Legit tournament team. Hands down.

Woopigs.

[Adam Stokes]

Into conference tournament time. Teams in italics have no more games before Selection Sunday after being eliminated/winning their conference tournament.

MTSU has moved above the line sporting a #20 RPI. Save a terrible conference tourney loss and some strong bubble play they are in.

There are only 5 11 seeds listed because only 5 would be at-large. The 6th would be a mid-major conference winner (like a Loyola Chicago.) There can't be 7 11 seeds which is why two are pushed to the 12 seed. So in this scenario Providence, Louisville, Baylor, and Texas would be in the play-in games.

Bracket alignment before Friday's games and Friday schedule:

+32 L Ohio State n Penn State - Not a terrible loss, listed it because now Ohio State is within striking distance. Penn State will also likely creep into the bubble conversation with the win.
---- 5 Seeds ----
+31 Arizona
+30 Kentucky
+29 Gonzaga
+28 W Michigan n Nebraska
---- 6 Seeds ----
+27 TCU
+26 Houston
+25 Nevada
+24 Arkansas
---- 7 Seeds ----
+23 Florida
+22 Texas A&M
+21 Miami FL
+20 L Rhode Island @ Davidson - they were still ahead of us on many brackets, this should fix that.
---- 8 Seeds ----
+19 Seton Hall 
+18 Creighton
+17 Virginia Tech
+16 Missouri
---- 9 Seeds ----
+15 W Oklahoma vs Iowa State
+14 Butler
+13 Arizona State
+12 Florida State
--- 10 Seeds ----
+11 St Mary's
+10 NC State
+9 USC
+8 St Bonaventure
--- 11 Seeds ----
+7 *Middle Tennessee State
+6 Alabama 
+5 Kansas State
+4 Providence
+3 Louisville
--- 12 Seeds ----
+2 Baylor
+1 Texas

---- Bubble Line ----

-1 Washington
-2 UCLA 
-3 Marquette 
-4 Mississippi State
-5 L Nebraska n Michigan - likely out now
-6 Utah
-7 Syracuse
-8 Temple

* - Mid-major that could steal a bid if they lose their conference tournament

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[hawg66]

Great job with all of this Adam. Really cool that you put in the work so consistently. Thanks

[razorhog52]

Would love a 6 seed for my birthday.

[Adam Stokes]

Bracket alignment before Saturday's games and Saturday schedule:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+31 L Kentucky @ Florida
+30 Ohio State
+29 W Gonzaga n Loyola Marymont
+28 W Michigan n #2 Michigan State
---- 6 Seeds ----
+27 L TCU @ #12 Texas Tech
+26 Houston
+25 L Nevada @ San Diego State
+24 W Florida vs #23 Kentucky
---- 7 Seeds ----
+23 L Arkansas @ Mizzou
+22 W Texas A&M vs Alabama
+21 W Miami FL vs Virginia Tech
+20 W Seton Hall vs Butler
---- 8 Seeds ----
+19 L Virginia Tech @ Miami
+18 L Creighton @ Marquette
+17 Rhode Island
+16 Oklahoma
---- 9 Seeds ----
+15 L Arizona State vs Stanford
+14 L Butler @ Seton Hall
+13 W Missouri vs Arkansas
+12 W Florida State vs Boston College
--- 10 Seeds ----
+11 L St Mary's n Pepperdine
+10 W NC State vs Louisville
+9 L USC vs UCLA
+8 *L Middle Tennessee State vs Marshall
--- 11 Seeds ----
+7 W St Bonaventure @ Saint Louis
+6 W Kansas State vs Baylor
+5 L Alabama @ Texas A&M - the free-fall continues
+4 L Baylor @ Kansas State
+3 W Providence vs Saint Johns
--- 12 Seeds ----
+2 L Louisville @ NC State
+1 W Texas vs #20 West Virginia - Huge OT win, might push them in.

---- Bubble Line ----

-1 L Washington vs Oregon
-2 W UCLA @ USC
-3 Nebraska 
-4 L Penn State n #8 Purdue
-5 L Mississippi State @ LSU - MSU is going to need some big SECT wins to make up for this one. Winning this would've just kept them afloat.
-6 W Utah vs Colorado
-7 W Marquette vs Creighton
-8 L Notre Dame @ #1 Virginia

Italics - teams that have no more games through Selection Sunday. Can't act; only be acted upon
* - Mid-major that could steal a bid if they lose their conference tournament

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[Adam Stokes]

Still games to be played, but it looks like we will get to stay on the 7 seed for now. Going 1-1 isn't a guarantee to keep us out of an 8 spot though.

[Adam Stokes]

The real significance of the loss to Mizzou was that had we won it a 7 seed would've been guaranteed. Now we need to get to the semi's for me to feel safe about a 7 seed or better. Here are my predictions for seeding, assuming teams around us aren't jumping around too much and there aren't too many SECT surprises:

Lose to SC: 8 seed
Beat SC, lose to Florida: 50/50 between 7/8 seed
Beat SC & UF, lose to Tenner: 6/7 seed
"" "", beat Tenner, lose to Auburn: 5/6 seed
Win SECT - 5 seed

Any matchups against more inferior teams, ie OM instead of SC, Tenner or AU getting beat by an inferior team, would keep our ceiling lower and extend our floor.

I would think the new brackets are coming out in the next hour or two and I'll have an update. Lots of teams lost yesterday, I would guess we'll drop from +23 to +21, could even just go to +22. Seton Hall had a good win but was a full 1.07 seeds behind us. I would guess Nevada would also drop below us with their loss to a team barely in the top 100.

New brackets should be out in the next hour or so, though it doesn't look like we are going to slide that much.

[Adam Stokes]

Only dropped two spots and are just barely behind Nevada. Still in a 7 seed spot.

Bracket alignment before Sunday's games and Sunday schedule:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 Arizona
+29 Gonzaga
+28 Kentucky
+27 Ohio State
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 Florida
+25 W Houston vs Uconn
+24 TCU
+23 Miami FL
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 Texas A&M
+21 Nevada
+20 Arkansas
+19 Seton Hall
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 Virginia Tech
+17 Rhode Island
+16 Creighton
+15 Missouri
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 Oklahoma
+13 NC State
+12 Florida State
+11 Butler
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 St Mary's
+9 St Bonaventure
+8 Arizona State
+7 Kansas State
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 USC
+5 Texas
+4 UCLA
+3 Providence
+2 Alabama
+1 Baylor
+0 *Middle Tennessee State - I was thinking they were in their conference tournament but they weren't. May have to still win out.

---- Bubble Line ----

-1 Marquette
-2 Syracuse
-3 Louisville
-4 Penn State
-5 Utah
-6 LSU
-7 Nebraska
-8 Boise State
-9 Mississippi State

Italics - teams that have no more games through Selection Sunday. Can't act; only be acted upon
* - Mid-major that could steal a bid if they lose their conference tournament

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[la20688]

I think if they win Thursday they are a 7 seed. Win the next game, they are a 6, which is probably their ceiling.

[Adam Stokes]

Bracket alignment before Monday's games and Monday schedule:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 Clemson
+29 Gonzaga
+28 Ohio State
+27 Kentucky
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 Florida
+25 Houston
+24 TCU
+23 Miami FL
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 Texas A&M
+21 Arkansas
+20 Nevada
+19 Seton Hall
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 Rhode Island
+17 Virginia Tech
+16 Creighton
+15 Missouri
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 Oklahoma
+13 Florida State
+12 NC State
+11 Butler
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 L St Mary's n BYU
+9 St Bonaventure
+8 Kansas State
+7 Arizona State
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 Texas
+5 USC
+4 Providence
+3 UCLA
+2 Baylor
+1 Alabama
+0 *Middle Tennessee State

---- Bubble Line ----

-1 Syracuse
-2 Marquette
-3 Louisville
-4 Oklahoma State
-5 Utah
-6 Nebraska
-7 Boise State
-8 LSU

Italics - teams that have no more games through Selection Sunday. Can't act; only be acted upon
* - Mid-major that could steal a bid if they lose their conference tournament

[daprospecta]

I think if they win Thursday they are a 7 seed. Win the next game, they are a 6, which is probably their ceiling.

This is how I feel as well. I would like a 7 seed but either way, your second game will be against a good team. Got to win big to advance in the tourney.

[The_Bionic_Pig]

This is how I feel as well. I would like a 7 seed but either way, your second game will be against a good team. Got to win big to advance in the tourney.

SEC Tournament:

We win one game - 8 seed
We win two games - 7 seed
Win the three game advance to title game - 6 seed
Win SEC Tournament which gives us 24-10 record pushing a 5 seed  but probably still a high 6 seed.

[99toLife]

SEC Tournament:

We win one game - 8 seed
We win two games - 7 seed
Win the three game advance to title game - 6 seed
Win SEC Tournament which gives us 24-10 record pushing a 5 seed  but probably still a high 6 seed.

I think that is accurate.  except i think we start as a #7 seed.  a Slight chance to get to a #6 seed.

[razorback1829]

SEC Tournament:

We win one game - 8 seed
We win two games - 7 seed
Win the three game advance to title game - 6 seed
Win SEC Tournament which gives us 24-10 record pushing a 5 seed  but probably still a high 6 seed.

If we win the first game, we will be pretty snug with a 7 unless somebody jumps us, which is a possibility. But if we win against Florida, I think it pushes us to the 6.

[Adam Stokes]

Not really any games of consequence for us today. Don't even have any non-con opponents playing today.

Only bubble games are an opening round game for Syracuse and the WCC final. While it is unlikely that BYU beats Gonzaga, they did just beat St Mary's, besting the Vegas line by 18. St Mary's should drop to around +4. BYU winning would kick Alabama out by stealing an at-large, and Gonzaga might get within reach if they lose and we beat Florida, though I think we'd have to win three to pass them.

[ListenHereMister]

Can't wait till Wed and Thursday games.

[Adam Stokes]

Brackets before Wednesday games and Wednesday schedule:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 Gonzaga
+29 Clemson
+28 Ohio State
+27 Kentucky
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 Florida
+25 Houston
+24 TCU
+23 Miami FL
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 Texas A&M
+21 Arkansas
+20 Nevada
+19 Seton Hall
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 Rhode Island
+17 L Virginia Tech n Notre Dame
+16 Missouri
+15 Creighton
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 L Oklahoma n Okie State
+13 L NC State n Boston College
+12 L Florida State n Louisville
+11 Butler
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 St Bonaventure
+9 Kansas State
+8 L Arizona State n Colorado
+7 W Texas n Iowa State
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 USC
+5 St Mary's
+4 UCLA
+3 Providence
+2 Alabama
+1 Baylor
+0 *Middle Tennessee State

---- Bubble Line ----

-1 L Syracuse n UNC
-2 Marquette n Depaul
-3 W Louisville n Florida State
-4 W Oklahoma State n Oklahoma
-5 Utah
-6 Nebraska
-7 W Boise State
-8 LSU

Italics - teams that have no more games through Selection Sunday. Can't act; only be acted upon
* - Mid-major that could steal a bid if they lose their conference tournament

[jchill]

It seemed like Arkansas was unfairly perceived as a bubble team for far too long this season compared to other schools. Okie is in complete free fall, but they remain a solid pick to make the field even if they do not win a game in the Big 12 tourney.

[Adam Stokes]

Well, today couldn't have gone any better. Check today's games.

Bucknell wins their conference tournament. Troy wins their 1st round game. Oklahoma State put themselves on the bubble line to give us another potential tournament team on our resume, winning against Oklahoma team who was still a threat to pass us on the bubble line. North Carolina is up by thirteen in the first half against Syracuse.

Four of the nine teams seeded behind us, all of which whom could've passed us with good tournament showings, lost to mediocre teams, guaranteeing we won't in any way drop below an eight seed. Beat SC/OM and we may get to hold onto a 7.

Good day.

[ListenHereMister]

Who do we need to root for today?

[TexasRazorback]

This morning we need to root for K State vs TCU. If the frogs lose then and a good showing by the hogs, we may flip flop and take the 6 seed and they fall to the 7

[yraciv]

Yeah and lets root for Bama as well against the Aggies. Bama has been in free fall, but a win over A&M should lock them in and neither of those teams should be higher seeded than us.

[Adam Stokes]

Bolded are the teams we should root for today.

Brackets haven't yet updated this morning, so I'll keep yesterdays W & L's on there so you can see where they'll be trending while I'll also list off today's matchups. Anything with a "W..." is a result from yesterday. I'll also remove whether it is a neutral site since all the games are at this point.

Also, just for fun, the SEC and ACC are essentially tied in RPI, with the SEC being like .001 higher. We've been #4 for most of the season. Essentially if the worse teams in the ACC keep winning it'll bring down their average RPI, so to brag that we are the #3 conference I'll be rooting for the underdogs there.

Wednesday/Thursday results with Thursday matchups:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 Gonzaga
+29 W Clemson vs Boston College
+28 Ohio State
+27 Kentucky
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 Florida
+25 Houston
+24 L TCU vs Kansas State
+23 L Miami FL vs #12 UNC
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 L Texas A&M vs Alabama - Crazy finish, watch the highlights
+21 W Arkansas vs South Carolina
+20 W Nevada vs UNLV
+19 L Seton Hall vs Butler
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 L Creighton vs Providence
+17 Rhode Island
+16 L Missouri vs Georgia
+15 Virginia Tech
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 W Butler vs Seton Hall
+13 Florida State
+12 NC State
+11 St Bonaventure
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 Oklahoma
+9 W Kansas State vs TCU
+8 L Texas[/i[ vs #14 Texas Tech
+7 W UCLA vs Stanford
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 WUSC vs Oregon State
+5 W Providence vs Creighton
+4 St Mary's
+3 L Louisville vs #1 Virginia
+2 Arizona State
+1 LBaylor vs #18 West Virginia
+0 L Middle Tennessee State[ - lost in the quarterfinal? We'll see where they show up tomorrow.

---- Bubble Line ----

-1 L Marquette vs #2 Villanova
-2 W Alabama vs Texas A&M
-3 L Oklahoma State vs #9 Kansas
-4 Syracuse
-5 Utah vs Oregon
-6 Nebraska
-7 L Notre Dame vs #5 Duke
-8 L Boise State vs Utah State
-9 L LSU vs Mississippi State
-10 W Temple vs Tulane



Italics - teams that have no more games through Selection Sunday. Can't act; only be acted upon
* - Mid-major that could steal a bid if they lose their conference tournament

[raz1965]

Would like to see Alabama knock off A&M for 2 reasons , move Arkansas ahead in the seeding an maybe get another SEC team in the tourney.

[revolution]

When comparing bubble teams from different major conferences, this is some data that might be relevant to analyze the overall strength of each:

                     ACC        Big 12        Big East       Big 10       SEC
Non-con
Winning %      .7937       .8268          .8145         .7443        .7550

Avg. Q1 Wins
per team          4.1           5.1             3.6            1.9           4.6

Q1 Wins last
four teams        3             17               8              3              9

Teams with 3
or less Q1 wins  7               3               6              12            5

[Adam Stokes]

Got it updated with the new brackets.

Take a look at the average seeds listed here.

6.58 Texas A&M
6.93 Arkansas
7.04 Nevada
7.08 Seton Hall
7.89 Creighton

We are super close to both Nevada and Seton Hall. Looks like A&M will lose to Bama, which is good news. Seton Hall will probably pass us even if we both win as Butler is a much stronger opponent than SC.

[Hogeye_Pierce]

Will we still be a 7 seed if we win tonight and then lose tomorrow night to Florida as is predicted? i think that knocks us down to an 8 or 9 seed, personally. A lot of that is out of our control though.

[Adam Stokes]

Will we still be a 7 seed if we win tonight and then lose tomorrow night to Florida as is predicted? i think that knocks us down to an 8 or 9 seed, personally. A lot of that is out of our control though.

All depends on the teams around us. TCU just lost and we might pass them beating USC. A&M is down with 2 minutes to go. Miami will likely lose to UNC later. That would be three teams directly in front of us losing.

No way we are a 9 seed even if we lose to USC tonight as half the 8/9 seeds lost yesterday. I would still lean more towards a 7 than an 8 if we go 1-1 as a bad win and a good loss wouldn't move the needle much.

[TexasRazorback]

TCU and A&M go down.  If we can win tonight we may move up to the 6 seed. Will also help if Miami losses to unc tonight. Only thing we can control is our own game tonight. Let's go out there and beat the hell out of those cocks

[Atlhogfan1]

This is all assuming the committee will take the conference tournament results so seriously they'll adjust their seeding and possibly rearrange brackets based on results like a 1pt win by Bama.  That was a must win for Bama.

[A Hogwork Orange]

Got it updated with the new brackets.

Take a look at the average seeds listed here.

6.58 Texas A&M
6.93 Arkansas
7.04 Nevada
7.08 Seton Hall
7.89 Creighton

We are super close to both Nevada and Seton Hall. Looks like A&M will lose to Bama, which is good news. Seton Hall will probably pass us even if we both win as Butler is a much stronger opponent than SC.

A&M vs BAMA a lot closer of a finish than I thought, but looks like they did lose to Bama!

[Adam Stokes]

And Nevada is down by 8 at halftime. Ayeeee....

[Willyboy]

The three teams directly ahead of us lost today and we won.  Hope we can sneak into that six seed!!

[ErykofArkansas]

With our win and if we beat Florida tommorrow with all the losses ahead of us do we swap places with Florida?

[Adam Stokes]

Baby has me up early.

For the second day in a row, today couldn't have gone much better. Teams within 5 spots of us went 1-6 on the day. I'm confident that we can lose to Florida and keep a 7 seed, which was the goal. Wasn't something I thought a week ago, let alone this morning.

It'll be interesting to see how much we move up and how much the teams ahead of us move down after tonight, because our win wasn't anything spectacular and their losses weren't terrible. We also had a bit of a buffer between us and the teams directly ahead of us. As of today I think we'll move into the 6 seed position tomorrow, but think we'd slide back to a 7 with a loss Florida.

My predictions:

7 Seed - Lose to Florida
6 Seed - Beat Florida lose in semis
5 Seed - Make it to the SEC Final (not sure we can creep up to a 4 regardless of the outcome.)