Lester signs with Cubs

[jbell96]

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/12008073/jon-lester-sign-chicago-cubs

[bob slydell]

6 years for a guy that is about to be 31?  Years 4, 5, and 6 at $25 M per just have ugly written all over them.

[GolfNut57]

Really funny how the Cubs are throwing all that moolah at him and it will still be a wasted effort as there is no way Lester is what it takes to get them a WS ring. In fact I would be shocked if they even make the postseason next year.

Question is.........who will be with the Cubs longer? Lester or Theo?

[jrulz83]

The Cubs aren't that far away, I think they'll be competitive next season. I look for them to be contenders in 2016 or 2017.

[McKdaddy]

The Cubs aren't that far away, I think they'll be competitive next season. I look for them to be contenders in 2016 or 2017.

Agreed. Hope I'm wrong.

[pigture perfect]

I think he will fold up like a napkin at a fancy restaurant.

[ErieHog]

This is over-aggressive by the Cubs, but they are one of a handful of teams that can truly afford to be overaggressive.     

It'll be a good decision if the Cubs make multiple post-seasons during this contract, and a relatively bad one, if they do not.

[alwaysnextyear]

Lots of fail in this thread. Cubs will soon have the best front office, farm system and 1-2 TOR in baseball. Still have tons of bargaining chips to acquire an established bat or number 2 type starter at the deadline. Won't have to trade Bryant, Castro, Soler, or Russell to do it either. Feels good man. There's no way I'd wanna do a trade with Theo at this point the way he's fleeced people. Every pitching prospect we trade away immediately has arm problems. We got Arrieta and Hendricks for nothing.

[jbell96]

I think the Cubs may finish above .500 next season, and like jrulz83 said, be contenders in 2016 & 2017.

[jrulz83]

Lots of fail in this thread. Cubs will soon have the best front office, farm system and 1-2 TOR in baseball. Still have tons of bargaining chips to acquire an established bat or number 2 type starter at the deadline. Won't have to trade Bryant, Castro, Soler, or Russell to do it either. Feels good man. There's no way I'd wanna do a trade with Theo at this point the way he's fleeced people. Every pitching prospect we trade away immediately has arm problems. We got Arrieta and Hendricks for nothing.

Link? 

I've heard all that before about the Cubs and they screwed it up then. I don't think they'll screw it up this time, but with half of the projected lineup having a combined total of 626 Major League at bats, barring a trade or two, it will take a couple of three years.

[pigture perfect]

It may just be me, but having seen Theo assemble then disassemble teams in Boston, you can't count on him standing pat with this hand. I look for the Cubs to be good on alternating years. He is no Billy Bean. He could never GM a small market team.

[Hogfaniam]

i still can't get used to the amount of money thrown around.  a great staff will cost you 75 to 80 mil now.

[ErieHog]

i still can't get used to the amount of money thrown around.  a great staff will cost you 75 to 80 mil now.

A great staff?  More like 80-100.     25 Mil for an anchor/ace,  20 mil for a clear 2/developing ace,  A 15 million 3, a 12 Million 4,  and a discount 10 Mil guy on the back end, and you are at $82 million.

WHen you start to object to these numbers, remember that Tim Lincecum is on the 2nd year of a $35 million deal, and, despite being in a team-favorable situation, where they have multiple guys getting below market deals, they pay $25.5,  $17.5,  $11,  $7, and $14.5, despite all being mid-contract.

And it is only going to get more expensive.

[GolfNut57]

Lots of fail in this thread. Cubs will soon have the best front office, farm system and 1-2 TOR in baseball. Still have tons of bargaining chips to acquire an established bat or number 2 type starter at the deadline. Won't have to trade Bryant, Castro, Soler, or Russell to do it either. Feels good man. There's no way I'd wanna do a trade with Theo at this point the way he's fleeced people. Every pitching prospect we trade away immediately has arm problems. We got Arrieta and Hendricks for nothing.

Easy to have one of the best farm systems when you perennially lose enough games every year to get to pick in the top five of each draft. Trading away pitching prospects that immediately have arm problems with their new teams won't take long to backfire on Theo either.

[Hogfaniam]

A great staff?  More like 80-100.     25 Mil for an anchor/ace,  20 mil for a clear 2/developing ace,  A 15 million 3, a 12 Million 4,  and a discount 10 Mil guy on the back end, and you are at $82 million.

WHen you start to object to these numbers, remember that Tim Lincecum is on the 2nd year of a $35 million deal, and, despite being in a team-favorable situation, where they have multiple guys getting below market deals, they pay $25.5,  $17.5,  $11,  $7, and $14.5, despite all being mid-contract.

And it is only going to get more expensive.

like i said, i can't get used to it.  that and $4 per lb hamburger

[alwaysnextyear]

Easy to have one of the best farm systems when you perennially lose enough games every year to get to pick in the top five of each draft. Trading away pitching prospects that immediately have arm problems with their new teams won't take long to backfire on Theo either.

Russell was a trade pickup. Edwards, Hendricks, Arrieta, etc were trade pickups. Soler intl signing. It's not just through the draft. Prepare to be raped by the Cubs. They have cornered the market on power bats.

[jrulz83]

Russell was a trade pickup. Edwards, Hendricks, Arrieta, etc were trade pickups. Soler intl signing. It's not just through the draft. Prepare to be raped by the Cubs. They have cornered the market on power bats.

Prospects don't always meet projections or expectations.....

[alwaysnextyear]

Prospects don't always meet projections or expectations.....

With the depth, if even half are hits then it'll be a nice 7 year run or so. There are four or five more top shelf bats making their way in the next round I'm not even factoring in. Only one I have worries about is Baez but he may get moved for TOR arm.

[jrulz83]

With the depth, if even half are hits then it'll be a nice 7 year run or so. There are four or five more top shelf bats making their way in the next round I'm not even factoring in. Only one I have worries about is Baez but he may get moved for TOR arm.

Okay, but prospects flame out all the time. from 1990-2006 the top 100 baseball prospects were failures %70 of the time. So, 3 out of 10 are successful, if the Cubs hit on %50 of their prospects they'll be breaking a pretty big historical trend.

[alwaysnextyear]

Okay, but prospects flame out all the time. from 1990-2006 the top 100 baseball prospects were failures %70 of the time. So, 3 out of 10 are successful, if the Cubs hit on %50 of their prospects they'll be breaking a pretty big historical trend.

Castro and Rizz are already hits. Soler appears to be a hit. You've seen the numbers Bryant puts up. Baez is the question mark right now. He's most likely to be peddled.

[jrulz83]

Castro and Rizz are already hits. Soler appears to be a hit. You've seen the numbers Bryant puts up. Baez is the question mark right now. He's most likely to be peddled.

So by selective name dropping and putting some personal conjecture in, you have the Cubs at an %80 success rate on 5 prospects. #misguidedfan

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/death-to-tinstaapp-updating-mckinneys.html

[alwaysnextyear]

So by selective name dropping and putting some personal conjecture in, you have the Cubs at an %80 success rate on 5 prospects. #misguidedfan

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/death-to-tinstaapp-updating-mckinneys.html

Just get ready. It's coming.

[jrulz83]

Just get ready. It's coming.

You're setting yourself up for a let down. Just don't run and hide if the Cubs are barely .500 next season. Take it like a man.

[alwaysnextyear]

You're setting yourself up for a let down. Just don't run and hide if the Cubs are barely .500 next season. Take it like a man.

Should finish a little over .500 then be serious contenders in 2016.

[jrulz83]

Should finish a little over .500 then be serious contenders in 2016.

I'm not sure about contending in 2016. They could do it, but their pitching is pretty thin. I think they need some time to build pitching depth. I think 2017 is more realistic for them, but I have been wrong many times before.

[ErieHog]

A record right around .500 next year is a success, and right on schedule for what they're trying to build.   

What makes the Lester signing a surprise to me,  is that I expected that kind of signing after next year, rather than after this year.  It looks like they're going to try to hurry the pace of things, and aren't afraid to spend to do it.

[alwaysnextyear]

A record right around .500 next year is a success, and right on schedule for what they're trying to build.   

What makes the Lester signing a surprise to me,  is that I expected that kind of signing after next year, rather than after this year.  It looks like they're going to try to hurry the pace of things, and aren't afraid to spend to do it.

They are done in free agency except for maybe a Gomes type. I think they'll see how the season plays out after Bryant is called up in May to decide whether to put the hammer down for a Hamels or someone like that if they are still available. Lester, Arrieta, and Hendricks is a pretty salty 1-3 and Hammel is adequate. They have a bunch of guys including Travis Wood shooting for the 5th starter spot. If the bags develop probably one TOR starter away.

[ErieHog]

They are done in free agency except for maybe a Gomes type. I think they'll see how the season plays out after Bryant is called up in May to decide whether to put the hammer down for a Hamels or someone like that if they are still available. Lester, Arrieta, and Hendricks is a pretty salty 1-3 and Hammel is adequate. They have a bunch of guys including Travis Wood shooting for the 5th starter spot. If the bags develop probably one TOR starter away.

I think they'd have been better off going with an Erwin Santana type deal this offseason (signed by my Twins for 4 years at $54M),  for a solid mid-to-back of the rotation guy for the life of the contract,  then amped up the spending on the bigger arms available next year.

I am curious to see how this level of aggressiveness translates.

[clutch]

The Lester signing was definitely aggressive. I never really understood the Lester hype that was going around. He's a really good pitcher, but I just felt he was going to be overpaid wherever he went.

[GolfNut57]

I think Lester is likely worth $25M per year. But that would only be for 3 years Years 4-6 and the Cubs are going to be hurting on his contract.

[alwaysnextyear]

I think Lester is likely worth $25M per year. But that would only be for 3 years Years 4-6 and the Cubs are going to be hurting on his contract.

With his easy delivery there's no reason he can't be productive late into the contract. They'll probably lock Soler and Bryant up on team friendly deals in the next year or so.

[toshortrock]

cubs will b come n on,but once again d cards will win the division

[hog.goblin]

I think the Lester signing was a way to get a few more fans back on the bus.  I've been a huge Cubs fan my entire life.  I used to watch 100+ games a year.  Once I started having kids and a busier life I probably still caught 25+ a year.

Since Dusty was fired it's declined.  I probably haven't watched 5 games combined in the last 3 years.  I still read up on them and keep up with scores and stats, but I'm really hoping to see a competitive team this year.