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2017 MLB Draft Thread

Started by ucahogfan, May 24, 2017, 09:20:16 pm

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311Hog

lil sweet off the board to St. Louis

jry04


 

jry04

We are now below $400k slot value. Just 2 picks away from the 5th round, where it goes $378k to $285k. One team to keep an eye on is the Twins, though. They need pitching and have the most bonus pool money. They also saved big on their #1 and #37 picks, so they are expected to have over $1million in extra bonus to play with.

JonClaudeVanHam

I'm not sure this day could be going any better.
Quote from: rhames on Today at 10:56:37 amMusselman wants the UofA Transit Director Job.

outlawhogeywells

Yea smith is a catcher. 

311Hog


jry04

Lost in all of this, we still haven't heard Spanberger's name. I do not know how it slipped my mind, but I am a little surprised he has yet to go. Everyone was arguing about whether he was a 1st or 2nd round guy, most said 3rd or 4th. Here we are 5 picks into the 5th and we haven't seen him off the board yet. Surely he goes soon. The biggest knock on him was he essentially only had 1 year of work to show. Had he had multiple season of production he would be a 2nd or 1st rounder.

SPAL

I'm starting to get nervous.

jry04

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on June 13, 2017, 01:37:42 pm
I'm starting to get nervous.
About what? Recruits or Knight? Now is definitely the time we would start to see some recruits come off the board. Something tells me if Knight and Bonnin haven't been taken now they won't be until tomorrow. Those guys have 7 figure potential so it would be odd to see them go now.

Bruinstyle2001

Can we get a list started for quick reference of Arkansas players and recruits drafted? (example below)

Round - Pick - Player - Arkansas Affiliation
3rd - 90 - Daniel Tillo - Recruit
3rd - 92 - Trevor Stephan - Player

navyhog24


jry04

Quote from: Bruinstyle2001 on June 13, 2017, 01:40:24 pm
Can we get a list started for quick reference of Arkansas players and recruits drafted? (example below)

Round - Pick - Player - Arkansas Affiliation
3rd - 90 - Daniel Tillo - Recruit
3rd - 92 - Trevor Stephan - Player
4th - 122 - Canaan Smith - Recruit

outlawhogeywells

Quote from: 311Hog on June 13, 2017, 01:37:03 pm
ticker lists him as a RF
I was just going by Razorback Talk.com that list all of our recruits and they list him as a catcher.  They show him at 6 feet tall and 210

 

BroyledNutts

Quote from: jry04 on June 13, 2017, 01:37:28 pm
Lost in all of this, we still haven't heard Spanberger's name. I do not know how it slipped my mind, but I am a little surprised he has yet to go. Everyone was arguing about whether he was a 1st or 2nd round guy, most said 3rd or 4th. Here we are 5 picks into the 5th and we haven't seen him off the board yet. Surely he goes soon. The biggest knock on him was he essentially only had 1 year of work to show. Had he had multiple season of production he would be a 2nd or 1st rounder.


I will be surprised if we hear Spanberger's name before the 10th round ... just before the SEC tournament few scouts knew who he was ... someone's sitting on him, hoping to get a value pick.

311Hog

Quote from: outlawhogeywells on June 13, 2017, 01:42:36 pm
I was just going by Razorback Talk.com that list all of our recruits and they list him as a catcher.  They show him at 6 feet tall and 210


yeah he is listed as a C in this thread on page 1 i believe, when i saw RF i was a little surprised

woodrow hog call

Kramer  Robertson, taken in the 4th round, no word if they showed his mother in the bleachers or not. You know she is a coach ...............................
"I hate rude behavior in a man, I won't tolerate it"

HoneyNuttPetrinoos

If Span don't got in the top 6 rds then he needs to come back to school..  he is def top 3 rd guy IMO..

WhenPigsFly

Quote from: jry04 on June 13, 2017, 01:37:28 pm
Lost in all of this, we still haven't heard Spanberger's name. I do not know how it slipped my mind, but I am a little surprised he has yet to go. Everyone was arguing about whether he was a 1st or 2nd round guy, most said 3rd or 4th. Here we are 5 picks into the 5th and we haven't seen him off the board yet. Surely he goes soon. The biggest knock on him was he essentially only had 1 year of work to show. Had he had multiple season of production he would be a 2nd or 1st rounder.

Not that surprised.  Contrary to the commentators for the SEC Tournament, Spanny is not the second coming of Babe Ruth.

jry04

Quote from: BroyledNutts on June 13, 2017, 01:45:33 pm
I will be surprised if we hear Spanberger's name before the 10th round ... just before the SEC tournament few scouts knew who he was ... someone's sitting on him, hoping to get a value pick.
During the SECT the scouts said he was a 5th rounder. KP and Burke disagreed and said 2nd at worse. Baseball America had him around 160 entering the draft. If he falls out of the top 10 it is a shocker and likely because he priced himself too high.

PorkRyan

Quote from: HoneyNuttPetrinoos on June 13, 2017, 01:47:48 pm
If Span don't got in the top 6 rds then he needs to come back to school..  he is def top 3 rd guy IMO..

yeah but he won't have any leverage and might have to sign for less even though he gets drafted higher. 

JonClaudeVanHam

Quote from: HoneyNuttPetrinoos on June 13, 2017, 01:47:48 pm
If Span don't got in the top 6 rds then he needs to come back to school..  he is def top 3 rd guy IMO..

Too big of a risk, imo.
Quote from: rhames on Today at 10:56:37 amMusselman wants the UofA Transit Director Job.

jry04

Quote from: WhenPigsFly on June 13, 2017, 01:50:21 pm
Not that surprised.  Contrary to the commentators for the SEC Tournament, Spanny is not the second coming of Babe Ruth.
Nobody said he was, but that power is special and he can play multiple positions. If he had a year like this year again he would be a top 3 round guy easy.

PintailKiller

Quote from: jry04 on June 13, 2017, 01:53:31 pm
Nobody said he was, but that power is special and he can play multiple positions. If he had a year like this year again he would be a top 3 round guy easy.

That's the thing - gotta produce again, much like Rooker at MSU. 
"Just take the ball and throw it where you want to. Throw strikes. Home plate don't move."

JonClaudeVanHam

Quote from: rhames on Today at 10:56:37 amMusselman wants the UofA Transit Director Job.

 

BroyledNutts

Quote from: jry04 on June 13, 2017, 01:51:22 pm
During the SECT the scouts said he was a 5th rounder. KP and Burke disagreed and said 2nd at worse. Baseball America had him around 160 entering the draft. If he falls out of the top 10 it is a shocker and likely because he priced himself too high.

Jry...I've always wondered - how does that process work? ... does a team contact Span and say they're interested, and then have a conversation about money? How early in the season does that occur? How does a player have an idea of his value? You can PM me if you wanna leave the answer off this thread.

WhenPigsFly

Quote from: jry04 on June 13, 2017, 01:53:31 pm
Nobody said he was, but that power is special and he can play multiple positions. If he had a year like this year again he would be a top 3 round guy easy.

Not quibbling with you, just saying that IMO, he's not as good as the SEC commentators made him out to be.  And evidently, MLB agrees.

southarkhog06

For those in the know, which sec schools have been hit the hardest by thus far?

PintailKiller

Quote from: BroyledNutts on June 13, 2017, 01:57:44 pm
Jry...I've always wondered - how does that process work? ... does a team contact Span and say they're interested, and then have a conversation about money? How early in the season does that occur? How does a player have an idea of his value?

Most players have an adviser that they work with.  Top 10 rounds are slotted and each team has a bonus pool.  Most teams will reach out to the adviser or family and get a feel for their perceived worth and then make a determination on of they will draft that player and where.
"Just take the ball and throw it where you want to. Throw strikes. Home plate don't move."

BroyledNutts

Quote from: PintailKiller on June 13, 2017, 02:00:48 pm
Most players have an adviser that they work with.  Top 10 rounds are slotted and each team has a bonus pool.  Most teams will reach out to the adviser or family and get a feel for their perceived worth and then make a determination on of they will draft that player and where.

Thanks - do these advisers seek out players that have potential and offer services, or does the player/family seek out the adviser?

JonClaudeVanHam

Quote from: rhames on Today at 10:56:37 amMusselman wants the UofA Transit Director Job.

jry04

Quote from: WhenPigsFly on June 13, 2017, 01:58:36 pm
Not quibbling with you, just saying that IMO, he's not as good as the SEC commentators made him out to be.  And evidently, MLB agrees.
That is not how the draft works, but it is funny that you think that.
Quote from: PintailKiller on June 13, 2017, 02:00:48 pm
Most players have an adviser that they work with.  Top 10 rounds are slotted and each team has a bonus pool.  Most teams will reach out to the adviser or family and get a feel for their perceived worth and then make a determination on of they will draft that player and where.
The teams can talk to the player's themselves, too. The NCAA allows baseball players to talk to teams and negotiate directly.
Quote from: BroyledNutts on June 13, 2017, 01:57:44 pm
Jry...I've always wondered - how does that process work? ... does a team contact Span and say they're interested, and then have a conversation about money? How early in the season does that occur? How does a player have an idea of his value? You can PM me if you wanna leave the answer off this thread.
The poster above gives you a good idea. Negotiations can lead up all the way to the draft, just before the pick, etc. Players get information through a variety of ways on what their worth is. If a guy like Blaine Knight is being told he needs to add weight to be a first or second round pick, then he may demand 1st round money. If a team will pay that, regardless of where he is drafted, then he will get drafted there and take it. Teams are probably calling Knight as we speak saying "hey I know your number is this, but will you come off it at all?" If he won't come off it, then somebody will eventually take him tomorrow more than likely and spend the next month or so trying to see how much they can come up with and give him their best offer. Worst case, they develop a relationship with him for a future draft.

Too many people think because a player isn't drafted by x round then he must not be as good of a prospect. A guy like Spanberger may see himself as a 3rd round guy at worse, but teams in the 4th and 5th round won't pay him 3rd round money so while he is really a top 5 round guy is actually falling beyond the 5th round because he won't come off his number. He may go tomorrow and teams will see if they can get him for 5th or 6th round money instead of 3rd round money, but that doesn't mean he is any worse of a prospect than guys taken earlier than him. Just as an example, Clarke Eagan went in the 9th round last year because he would sign for cheap. Bonfield went undrafted.
According to WhenPigsFly's theory, that means Eagan was a better pro prospect than Bonfield. NO, Bonfield just priced himself out of the draft.



jry04

Quote from: BroyledNutts on June 13, 2017, 02:02:15 pm
Thanks - do these advisers seek out players that have potential and offer services, or does the player/family seek out the adviser?
It is more of a family member, coach, teacher, etc. A player is not allowed to have a lawyer or agent negotiate anything on behalf of the player with a professional team. If they do, then they forfeit their eligibility. These players can talk directly. They get information from our coaches and the organizations they talk with before the draft.

PintailKiller

Quote from: jry04 on June 13, 2017, 02:07:32 pm
That is not how the draft works, but it is funny that you think that. The teams can talk to the player's themselves, too. The NCAA allows baseball players to talk to teams and negotiate directly.The poster above gives you a good idea. Negotiations can lead up all the way to the draft, just before the pick, etc. Players get information through a variety of ways on what their worth is. If a guy like Blaine Knight is being told he needs to add weight to be a first or second round pick, then he may demand 1st round money. If a team will pay that, regardless of where he is drafted, then he will get drafted there and take it. Teams are probably calling Knight as we speak saying "hey I know your number is this, but will you come off it at all?" If he won't come off it, then somebody will eventually take him tomorrow more than likely and spend the next month or so trying to see how much they can come up with and give him their best offer. Worst case, they develop a relationship with him for a future draft.

Too many people think because a player isn't drafted by x round then he must not be as good of a prospect. A guy like Spanberger may see himself as a 3rd round guy at worse, but teams in the 4th and 5th round won't pay him 3rd round money so while he is really a top 5 round guy is actually falling beyond the 5th round because he won't come off his number. He may go tomorrow and teams will see if they can get him for 5th or 6th round money instead of 3rd round money, but that doesn't mean he is any worse of a prospect than guys taken earlier than him. Just as an example, Clarke Eagan went in the 9th round last year because he would sign for cheap. Bonfield went undrafted.
According to WhenPigsFly's theory, that means Eagan was a better pro prospect than Bonfield. NO, Bonfield just priced himself out of the draft.


This.
"Just take the ball and throw it where you want to. Throw strikes. Home plate don't move."

BroyledNutts

Thanks for that, Jry ... I've only followed the draft for a couple seasons, and I know very little about the behind the scenes activities that go into being scouted and drafted.

Thanks for the education.


SPAL

Quote from: jry04 on June 13, 2017, 01:40:15 pm
About what? Recruits or Knight? Now is definitely the time we would start to see some recruits come off the board. Something tells me if Knight and Bonnin haven't been taken now they won't be until tomorrow. Those guys have 7 figure potential so it would be odd to see them go now.

All of it. The fact that we haven't seen our guys falling off the board tells me we are in good shape. But there is always that uncertainty of the mlb draft and kids making big life choices that keep me from feeling secure about it.


jry04

Quote from: BroyledNutts on June 13, 2017, 02:11:08 pm
Thanks for that, Jry ... I've only followed the draft for a couple seasons, and I know very little about the behind the scenes activities that go into being scouted and drafted.

Thanks for the education.
No worries. If you see any of our players or recruits drafted in the top 10 round, you can assume they are gone. If they go outside of the top 10 then there is still a chance they are gone depending on who drafts them, but their chances of returning jump up drastically. The fact that we are in the 6th round and Knight and Bonnin haven't gone yet, it tells me they likely are demanding 2nd or 1st round money and have priced themselves out of an early pick. Good news for us, and in my opinion shows they are getting good advice rather than just jumping at the first offer thrown at them.

I know others will disagree, but if we continue to see Spanberger slide I think there may be a chance he returns. DVH said himself he is a 3-5 round guy. DVH is a straight shooter and doesn't pump up players who do not deserve it. He didn't try and convince anyone Knight was a 1st or 2nd round pick. He didn't try and convince anyone that Shaddy and Bonfield should be a lock to be picked, he did try and convince us that Spanberger, a player with eligibility left, should go in the top 5 rounds. Same with Stephan. Maybe he gets the offer he wants later, but if he doesn't there could be a chance he returns because another season next year like he had this year and they will have no choice but to take him earlier. Even as a senior, he will be somewhat protected as a top 10 pick. Say he slides out of the top 10, gets offered $250k this year to sign, returns and goes in the 3rd round. He may be drafted in a $550k slot, signs below slot at $400k, he saves the team money but still makes himself more money. It isn't outrageous to think it could happen. Look at Kramer Robertson.

Grizzlyfan

Quote from: ucahogfan on June 05, 2017, 09:55:20 pm
BA Top 500
Bryce Bonnin - 74 - RHP who has hit 96 with plus slider. Could be two way player for us.
Blaine Knight - 88
Daniel Tillo - 94 - LHP who can hit 97 with plus slider. Struggled with dead arm in JUCO.
Cole Turney - 129 - OF with big time power from LH side.
Chad Spanberger - 164
Trevor Stephan - 178
Jackson Rutledge - 184 - 6'8" RHP who has hit 94
Casey Opitz - 306 - C who might be our most important recruit to provide some backup to Koch next year
Canaan Smith - 367 - C with elite plate discipline and big time power from LH side
Luke Bonfield - 477
Hunter Milligan - 500 - Polished LHP
So, Bonnin projected at pick 74, not picked through 165.  Blain Knight projected at pick 88, not picked through 165.  Should we read too much into that?

WhenPigsFly

Quote from: jry04 on June 13, 2017, 02:07:32 pm
That is not how the draft works, but it is funny that you think that. The teams can talk to the player's themselves, too. The NCAA allows baseball players to talk to teams and negotiate directly.The poster above gives you a good idea. Negotiations can lead up all the way to the draft, just before the pick, etc. Players get information through a variety of ways on what their worth is. If a guy like Blaine Knight is being told he needs to add weight to be a first or second round pick, then he may demand 1st round money. If a team will pay that, regardless of where he is drafted, then he will get drafted there and take it. Teams are probably calling Knight as we speak saying "hey I know your number is this, but will you come off it at all?" If he won't come off it, then somebody will eventually take him tomorrow more than likely and spend the next month or so trying to see how much they can come up with and give him their best offer. Worst case, they develop a relationship with him for a future draft.

Too many people think because a player isn't drafted by x round then he must not be as good of a prospect. A guy like Spanberger may see himself as a 3rd round guy at worse, but teams in the 4th and 5th round won't pay him 3rd round money so while he is really a top 5 round guy is actually falling beyond the 5th round because he won't come off his number. He may go tomorrow and teams will see if they can get him for 5th or 6th round money instead of 3rd round money, but that doesn't mean he is any worse of a prospect than guys taken earlier than him. Just as an example, Clarke Eagan went in the 9th round last year because he would sign for cheap. Bonfield went undrafted.
According to WhenPigsFly's theory, that means Eagan was a better pro prospect than Bonfield. NO, Bonfield just priced himself out of the draft.

Not what I said at all.  SEC guys said Spanny would go first or second round.  Nobody agreed with that, including the the scouts.  So he didn't go in the first two rounds because he wouldn't sign for first or second round money?

jry04

Quote from: Grizzlyfan on June 13, 2017, 02:19:59 pm
So, Bonnin projected at pick 74, not picked through 165.  Blain Knight projected at pick 88, not picked through 165.  Should we read too much into that?
I think it is exactly what we have been saying. Priced themselves higher than teams wanted to pay because they see their potential. We see it every year with recruits/players. Bonfield in HS and last year. Fletcher and McFarland last year. McKinney in high school. The list goes on. DVH had a good feeling about this draft. It is FAR from over, but it looks good so far.

SPAL

Quote from: Grizzlyfan on June 13, 2017, 02:19:59 pm
So, Bonnin projected at pick 74, not picked through 165.  Blain Knight projected at pick 88, not picked through 165.  Should we read too much into that?

Depends on what you are suggesting. But , no...their ranking is by no means mutually exclusive to their draft position. In fact, signability is as much or more if a factor in most cases.

jry04

Quote from: WhenPigsFly on June 13, 2017, 02:22:38 pm
Not what I said at all.  SEC guys said Spanny would go first or second round.  Nobody agreed with that, including the the scouts.  So he didn't go in the first two rounds because he wouldn't sign for first or second round money?
Where did I say he should go 2nd round, though? I said I am surprised he hasn't gone yet. It was the start of the 6th round when I posted it. You said you are not surprised at all. Every publication, Dave Van Horn, Kyle Peterson, Chris Burke, the scouts at the SECT all said he is a top 6 round guy, but some had him higher than others. I thought he would go in the 4th or 5th round, personally. I agree he wasn't as good as the SEC commentators, but I am still shocked that he hasn't gone yet.

SPAL

Quote from: WhenPigsFly on June 13, 2017, 02:22:38 pm
Not what I said at all.  SEC guys said Spanny would go first or second round.  Nobody agreed with that, including the the scouts.  So he didn't go in the first two rounds because he wouldn't sign for first or second round money?

Those guys were likely prisoners of the moment. He was never gonna go in the first two rounds. Nobody here who follows baseball year round was saying that. We all agreed he was anywhere from.5-7.

BroyledNutts

Quote from: jry04 on June 13, 2017, 02:17:47 pm
No worries. If you see any of our players or recruits drafted in the top 10 round, you can assume they are gone. If they go outside of the top 10 then there is still a chance they are gone depending on who drafts them, but their chances of returning jump up drastically. The fact that we are in the 6th round and Knight and Bonnin haven't gone yet, it tells me they likely are demanding 2nd or 1st round money and have priced themselves out of an early pick. Good news for us, and in my opinion shows they are getting good advice rather than just jumping at the first offer thrown at them.

I know others will disagree, but if we continue to see Spanberger slide I think there may be a chance he returns. DVH said himself he is a 3-5 round guy. DVH is a straight shooter and doesn't pump up players who do not deserve it. He didn't try and convince anyone Knight was a 1st or 2nd round pick. He didn't try and convince anyone that Shaddy and Bonfield should be a lock to be picked, he did try and convince us that Spanberger, a player with eligibility left, should go in the top 5 rounds. Same with Stephan. Maybe he gets the offer he wants later, but if he doesn't there could be a chance he returns because another season next year like he had this year and they will have no choice but to take him earlier. Even as a senior, he will be somewhat protected as a top 10 pick. Say he slides out of the top 10, gets offered $250k this year to sign, returns and goes in the 3rd round. He may be drafted in a $550k slot, signs below slot at $400k, he saves the team money but still makes himself more money. It isn't outrageous to think it could happen. Look at Kramer Robertson.

Good analysis ... Span appears to me to have all the tools of a guy taken top 5 - height, size, power, overall potential - but he just showed his capability at the plate this year, and in my eyes he's still a little rough with the glove work and reaction times. Another year like this one, polishing the glove skills, and showing his ability to hit for average would seemingly assure a top 5 round pick.

PintailKiller

Quote from: Grizzlyfan on June 13, 2017, 02:19:59 pm
So, Bonnin projected at pick 74, not picked through 165.  Blain Knight projected at pick 88, not picked through 165.  Should we read too much into that?

Those are not a projected pick, but a ranking by BA as to who they think the top 500 prospects are.
"Just take the ball and throw it where you want to. Throw strikes. Home plate don't move."

WhenPigsFly

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on June 13, 2017, 02:25:47 pm
Those guys were likely prisoners of the moment. He was never gonna go in the first two rounds. Nobody here who follows baseball year round was saying that. We all agreed he was anywhere from.5-7.

Which is all I was saying.

Grizzlyfan

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on June 13, 2017, 02:23:36 pm
Depends on what you are suggesting. But , no...their ranking is by no means mutually exclusive to their draft position. In fact, signability is as much or more if a factor in most cases.
Suggestion being the hope that we get them back to campus.  Honestly, I hope these guys all do well when they get to professional baseball.  But if history is any indication we are likely to never hear from many of these guys again.  A few years kicking around the minors and they enter the real world.  So my hope is that they all come back to the Hill if they can.

BroyledNutts

And there he goes ... to the Rockies round 6

Good for him, even though it's to Colorado.

HoneyNuttPetrinoos

span just picked to the rockies

SPAL

Quote from: Grizzlyfan on June 13, 2017, 02:32:22 pm
Suggestion being the hope that we get them back to campus.  Honestly, I hope these guys all do well when they get to professional baseball.  But if history is any indication we are likely to never hear from many of these guys again.  A few years kicking around the minors and they enter the real world.  So my hope is that they all come back to the Hill if they can.

I see. I'm still not Comfortable about Bonnin despite his absence from the draft this far. Tillo is likely gone.

I feel pretty good about Knight now. I would guess 90% he comes back. I won't speculate on the others.