Alex Collins speculation

[Smokehouse]

Why's it unreasonable for AC to have received a 2nd round grade? You've got a guy with far fewer miles on his body compared to other backs (an advantage of splitting carries). He's got better feet than anyone else in this year's group. He's been a Hog of fine character off the field. He's a positive yardage back. He's an excellent pass protector. He can also construct a sentence in English! Sounds worthy of a top 64 player to me!

I thought he'd be 2nd round, 3rd round at the latest just looking at comparable backs drafted recently. I was a little surprised when CBB seemed to indicate at the press conference that he was worse than that.

When did they actually receive the grades? Is it possible that CBB talked to a few of his contacts before that press conference, but the official draft score that came back is rosier than what his NFL contacts were thinking?

[urkillnmesmalls]

The Heisman talk is a little odd to me.  I have no doubt that he has the ability to win that honor, but you have to be on a 10 win team to do it.  I'm not sure we have that with all the questions surrounding the defense alone, much less what we're losing on offense. 

If his grade really is 2nd round, then surely he'll go.  At that point the risk of injury coming back would seem to outweigh whatever chance he might for more money from moving up. 

[hogginbama]

Could it be that prior to the draft grades coming out that AC had actually told coach that he was planning on coming back? Then when the grade of a 2nd round pick came out, it has made things very interesting. The previous mindset to stay because he felt he would need to do some work to improve, truly enjoys being a Razorback and feels as if he has unfinished business is now being attacked by a higher than expected draft grade.

[bennyl08]

In another thread I posted on the prevalence of running backs taken in different rounds. Yall need to adjust your arguments about how rarely they are taken in the first. 5 RB's have been taken in the first round over just the past 4 years. Go back further than that and they are even more common. The top 4.25 running backs are taken on average in the first two rounds (1.25 in the first and 3 in the second).

He would have to be the 5th best rb or worse to be taken outside the top 2 rounds on average. While there was high variability in the first, when adding the first and second rounds, that number is pretty consistent. Barring some off the field run in with the law or something Elliot will likely be a first rounder. Leaving teams to decide if they want Henry or Collins bad enough in the first or wait to the second. Most all draftniks have the rankings as Elliot, Henry, and Collins as third. Combine performances will play into it for example, if Henry runs like a 4.7 and Collins a 4.47 or something, I'd venture that Collins moves up.

[DukeOfPork]

Who cares about the Heisman. How about an SEC Title?

He doesn't have a shot at that either.

As long as Saban is still coaching, we will never make it back to Atlanta. 

[DukeOfPork]

In another thread I posted on the prevalence of running backs taken in different rounds. Yall need to adjust your arguments about how rarely they are taken in the first. 5 RB's have been taken in the first round over just the past 4 years. Go back further than that and they are even more common. The top 4.25 running backs are taken on average in the first two rounds (1.25 in the first and 3 in the second).

He would have to be the 5th best rb or worse to be taken outside the top 2 rounds on average. While there was high variability in the first, when adding the first and second rounds, that number is pretty consistent. Barring some off the field run in with the law or something Elliot will likely be a first rounder. Leaving teams to decide if they want Henry or Collins bad enough in the first or wait to the second. Most all draftniks have the rankings as Elliot, Henry, and Collins as third. Combine performances will play into it for example, if Henry runs like a 4.7 and Collins a 4.47 or something, I'd venture that Collins moves up.

If Collins really is the #3 back, then he needs to go.

[bennyl08]

If Collins really is the #3 back, then he needs to go.

Looking at the prospects for this year, the only guy I could argue that would push him to 4th would be Utah's Booker, but he is much more prone to injury. Elliot, Henry, and Collins are the Big 3.

[dsgreen]

He doesn't have a shot at that either.

As long as Saban is still coaching, we will never make it back to Atlanta.

Don't be dumb. Arkansas has them in Fayetteville, we just need the Football Gods on our side. If Ole Miss can be a victory against us away from the title, we can do it. Just have to beat A&M early.

[GoldenCOHog]

He doesn't have a shot at that either.

As long as Saban is still coaching, we will never make it back to Atlanta.

Old Mrs can beat them but we can't.  <stomp, pout, kick dog> I hate sunshine and I hate the third grade even more! 

[007 License To Squeal]

If he is 2nd round, then he's gone......best wishes, AC.

[buldozer]

It would definitely help the team if he were to return for his senior season, but he is only going to get so many sprints between the tackles with the rock in his career...... the best thing for AC would be to use them to make money from here on out....

[hawg66]

Whether DJ knows Collins' true grade or not, you can bet Alex does.  He'll make the decision based on facts, and moreso his heart.  I'm in the camp that the longer it goes the more likely he stays.

[code red]

Em hm.  2nd round.....where are all those 3rd and 4th round prognosticators now?

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

Whether DJ knows Collins' true grade or not, you can bet Alex does.  He'll make the decision based on facts, and moreso his heart.  I'm in the camp that the longer it goes the more likely he stays.

I agree with this.  No need to goof around unless you're not sure, and the easy answer is to jet for the cay-ash.

[jry04]

According to Trey Biddy, we will find out relatively soon that he is going pro.

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

According to Trey Biddy, we will find out relatively soon that he is going pro.

That he ''IS'' or ''whether or not'' he is?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Looking at the prospects for this year, the only guy I could argue that would push him to 4th would be Utah's Booker, but he is much more prone to injury. Elliot, Henry, and Collins are the Big 3.

According to CBS Sports projections, that would be true. And, if AC can be among the 1st three taken in the draft at RB, I would think that the decision about whether to go or not would be, go. That "should" assure him nothing less than a 2nd Round pick and the guaranteed money that goes along with being picked in the first two rounds would make it worth going.

Looking at the last two drafts the top 8 RB's taken over the course of those drafts (4 each) averaged 6.7 yards per touch and 145.4 all purpose yards per game. They averaged being in the top 2 rounds.

AC averaged 5.9 yards per touch and 128.6 all purpose yards. The 5 other top RB's in this 2016 draft averaged 7.2 yards per touch and 149.1 all purpose yards per game.

Now how that plays into where he is drafted remains to be seen. But yeah, if he can be reasonably assured of going in the first two rounds, he should probably go.

[b-ash]

I love AC, his vision, jump cuts, and his love for the helmet, but I feel like some "workout warrior" will shine at the combine and jump him in the draft. We all know AC best moments will be viewed on tape and the interviews.  Someone will run a 4.2 or broad jump a mile and everyone will fall in love with his measurables.  I think and have always thought he was gone (but all this time has given me glimmers of hope).  I pray everything works out for the kid. 

[DukeOfPork]

Don't be dumb. Arkansas has them in Fayetteville, we just need the Football Gods on our side. If Ole Miss can be a victory against us away from the title, we can do it. Just have to beat A&M early.

So you're relying on "the Football Gods" in your assessment of our chances.

[ricepig]

Em hm.  2nd round.....where are all those 3rd and 4th round prognosticators now?

Same place that 2nd round is, typed into a sentence with no proof.

[TrueBlue]

Em hm.  2nd round.....where are all those 3rd and 4th round prognosticators now?

That is just today's opinion. Look, at the end of last year, would you have rated AC above JWill?

It also means that he is good enough for second round - he could still very easily go third or fourth. Depends on a) if a team is looking for a running back b) is he the type of back they are looking for and c) if they have bigger needs than at running back. If they have bigger needs, it is possible that teams will take a wait and see attitude before drafting him which will drop him down in later rounds or even hold out until next year when there will be more to choose from. 

[dsgreen]

So you're relying on "the Football Gods" in your assessment of our chances.

By football Gods I simply mean the bounce of the ball.  You know, a blocked kick against state or that missed extra point against Bama.  Acting like winning is impossible shows you have no concept of the game.

[jry04]

That he ''IS'' or ''whether or not'' he is?

That he will turn pro.

[DiamondHogFan]

No speculation anymore.  He gone.  Thanks for the 3 years AC!  You have been a special razorback and will be remembered for a very long time!!  Go be great in the NFL!  They need more high character guys like you.

[lahawg1]

http://www.arkansasrazorbacks.com/glory_posts/ac3/

[bennyl08]

According to CBS Sports projections, that would be true. And, if AC can be among the 1st three taken in the draft at RB, I would think that the decision about whether to go or not would be, go. That "should" assure him nothing less than a 2nd Round pick and the guaranteed money that goes along with being picked in the first two rounds would make it worth going.

Looking at the last two drafts the top 8 RB's taken over the course of those drafts (4 each) averaged 6.7 yards per touch and 145.4 all purpose yards per game. They averaged being in the top 2 rounds.

AC averaged 5.9 yards per touch and 128.6 all purpose yards. The 5 other top RB's in this 2016 draft averaged 7.2 yards per touch and 149.1 all purpose yards per game.

Now how that plays into where he is drafted remains to be seen. But yeah, if he can be reasonably assured of going in the first two rounds, he should probably go.

How many of those touches include special teams?

Also, Collins doesn't catch many passes, but how much of that is scheme? I recall him making a really tough catch and don't really recall drops or just many targets to begin with. We prefer to keep our backs in to pass block, which IMO gives an advantage with Collins and JWill being two of the best in pass pro.

[DukeOfPork]

By football Gods I simply mean the bounce of the ball.  You know, a blocked kick against state or that missed extra point against Bama.  Acting like winning is impossible shows you have no concept of the game.

Nothing is ever "impossible".

But there are things that are highly improbable.  The breaks went our way just as much as they went against us.  Have Hunter Henry heave a lateral 20 yards on 4th and 25 100 times and we convert that only once.