Computer simulation(s) for National Championship game (Alabama-Clemson)

[WizardofhOgZ]

FWIW . . . here is the one I've been posting all season.   http://www.foxsports.com/whatifsports/college-football/story/2016-cfp-national-championship-prediction-010516

The more I see of this particular simulator, the less I like it.  Oh, it does get a good percentage of the winners right . . . but EVERY game is a 1-3 point spread, it seems.  This simulator never picks, say, a 45-7 score.  They may pick that same game 28-24, and so they claim that they got it right (which, technically, they did).  But it doesn't do a particularly good job of reflecting what really goes on most of the time.

This one seems much more "real world" . . . You can see how they've done this Bowl season.  21-15 vs. the line (some pushes, and a few games with no spread).  This simulation is a one-time thing; I let KSU be the "home team".  http://www.ncaagamesim.com/FB_GameSimulator.asp?HomeTeam=Kansas+State&HomeYear=2016&AwayTeam=Arkansas&AwayYear=2016&pbp=1&hSchedule=0

Here's a summary of how the second simulator did this Bowl season:  http://www.ncaagamesim.com/college-football-predictions.asp

[PorkSoda]

well if you compare the average of scoring offense and defense for both teams  you get

bama 27
clemson 26

given strength of schedule I'd pick 28-24 bama over clemson

[DeltaBoy]

I see Bama by a touchdown.  Henry shows why he deserves the Heisman and totes the Rock for 2 4th Quarter TD's to seal the game for BAMA!

[GoldenCOHog]

Bama by two TD's. 

Bama defense puts hats on hats and tackles Watson in space with ease. 

Bama secondary in cover 2 is suffocating and won't give up a ton of yards.  Too athletic and too deep.  Clemson will struggle to score all night. 

 

[PorkRinds]

Bama by 10+ is my bet.

[MS_HogFan]

I think Clemson wins.

[Biggus Piggus]

The Prediction Machine guy was on the radio last night. He has Alabama favored in his Monte Carlo simulation. You have to buy his prediction data; it's for gamblers.

[The Hogfather]

Bama by two TD's. 

Bama defense puts hats on hats and tackles Watson in space with ease. 

Bama secondary in cover 2 is suffocating and won't give up a ton of yards.  Too athletic and too deep.  Clemson will struggle to score all night. 

 

This is how I see it, too.  Clemson struggles to score, while Bama scores enough.  I think it will be something like 24-10 or 27-17.

[Biggus Piggus]

Only way Alabama loses is if they have another Ole Miss game and cough up a ton of turnovers. That's not out of the question. Note how last season, Bama's coached-up QB turned pumpkin under the pressure. Coker seems to be playing better than that, but I still wonder how he will fare playing against a really good QB on the other side.

[Biggus Piggus]

Funny how things work out. The only team that had a better first half playing against Alabama was Ole Miss. Arkansas led 7-3 at halftime; Ole Miss led 17-10. The Tide was tied with the Vols at half.

The only team that had a worse second half against the Tide was Michigan State. Bama outscored the Hogs 24-7 in the second half, 28-0 vs. the Spartans.

Arkansas and Tennessee produced textbook examples of a first-half defensive game plan vs. Alabama.

[hawginbigd1]

Only way Alabama loses is if they have another Ole Miss game and cough up a ton of turnovers. That's not out of the question. Note how last season, Bama's coached-up QB turned pumpkin under the pressure. Coker seems to be playing better than that, but I still wonder how he will fare playing against a really good QB on the other side.

Exactly how I see it, if they start putting the ball on the ground it might be a nail-biter. I don't think they will, and Watson wont be able to win enough on his own without any running game. I think it is 2 TD's + Bama.

[hvsupastar]

Clemson has a lot better chance to win this thing than a lot of people are giving them credit for.

[HoGFromTheStart]

Tide by 10+

[code red]

Clemson dips its foot in a REAL conference.  Bama will make Clemson look slow.  Clemson will have to load up the box because this week Bama will try to win the TOP. 
Bama 34
Clemson 17

[Smokehouse]

Only way Alabama loses is if they have another Ole Miss game and cough up a ton of turnovers. That's not out of the question. Note how last season, Bama's coached-up QB turned pumpkin under the pressure. Coker seems to be playing better than that, but I still wonder how he will fare playing against a really good QB on the other side.

Watson will have to have a hell of a game. Bama should be able to run enough to keep the pressure off of Coker. Bama's o-line is better than OU's, and the Sooners never really had a shot to establish their running game with Mixon going down early and Perine getting hobbled. I imagine the Clemson defense won't look as stout up front on Monday.

[jkstock04]

One major thing I look at is Bamas kryptonite...a blue chip dual qb. Watson is exactly that. The general public will ignore this and throw money all over Bama LOL.

Clemson is pretty decent at stopping the run...that OU game they were dominant. I guarantee OU didn't come close to 100 yards rushing that entire game. I see this as a close game that Clemson will have a chance to win.

[Biggus Piggus]

Clemson has a lot better chance to win this thing than a lot of people are giving them credit for.

No matter what, it's almost a cinch that the score will be close at halftime. Only games in which the Tide had more than a one-score lead at half: Georgia, TAM, Miss St, Michigan State (the latter just 10-0). Georgia and Michigan State were offense-impaired. TAM and Miss St, weak on defense. They only led the Gators 12-7 at half. Auburn, 12-6.

Maybe you get this great crescendo of emotion or something, but seems like Alabama manages games to be close at halftime.

[hogcard1964]

Low scoring

Alabama 20
Clemson 13

[Smokehouse]

One major thing I look at is Bamas kryptonite...a blue chip dual qb. Watson is exactly that. The general public will ignore this and throw money all over Bama LOL.

Clemson is pretty decent at stopping the run...that OU game they were dominant. I guarantee OU didn't come close to 100 yards rushing that entire game. I see this as a close game that Clemson will have a chance to win.

They were under 100 for the game, but they lost one of their top backs after like three carries and their other back was getting his ankle taped and worked on after every drive. I think Henry performs up to his standards but maybe takes more carries to get there and Bama doesn't get the team rushing totals they have in other games.