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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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WILL CLINTON

5* lock of the year this week.

Oregon -7 @ USC

One that may get close to a 5* lock is

Kansas St -8 v OkSt....3*

Locking these 2 in. I don't even know if I'll play any more.

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

 

SPAL

I'm going to start posting my picks at halftime. Seems its easier to win that way

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: McKdaddy on October 28, 2012, 11:58:01 am
NYG seem like easy $...-2

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 29, 2012, 11:45:38 am
I'm going to start posting my picks at halftime. Seems its easier to win that way

That game about gave me a heart attack at the end. I can't imagine what it is like to be a Cowboys fan and watch that debacle every week. That right hand landing out of bounds paid for my weekend.

DadVader1

October 29, 2012, 12:05:00 pm #1705 Last Edit: December 06, 2012, 10:40:41 pm by DadVader1
...

McKdaddy

October 29, 2012, 12:09:35 pm #1706 Last Edit: October 29, 2012, 12:11:23 pm by McKdaddy
Quote from: Hawgndaaz on October 29, 2012, 12:01:02 pm
That game about gave me a heart attack at the end. I can't imagine what it is like to be a Cowboys fan and watch that debacle every week. That right hand landing out of bounds paid for my weekend.

As a wretched Cowboys fan, that -2 on NYG did seem like easy money....especially at 23-0. Definitely a tale of 2 games.  But lost by some fingers (and 4 int's, and poor playcalling on 2nd & 1, and 2 fumble -- a typical team effort).

But anytime I bet against my teams, I'm trying to bet w/ my brain and not my heart....BUT it is money I don't mind losing. Ha. When Dallas was coming back, I was pretty excited.

I've been a fan since birth (thanks Dad!), and won't change teams regardless of how high the frustration gets w/ Jerry, Tony, Garrett, etc. I cheered as hard and watched all the games when 1-15 as in good years. But it is frustrating, and the blame starts at the top.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Hawgndaaz

October 29, 2012, 12:30:46 pm #1707 Last Edit: October 29, 2012, 12:32:45 pm by Hawgndaaz
Quote from: McKdaddy on October 29, 2012, 12:09:35 pm
As a wretched Cowboys fan, that -2 on NYG did seem like easy money....especially at 23-0. Definitely a tale of 2 games.  But lost by some fingers (and 4 int's, and poor playcalling on 2nd & 1, and 2 fumble -- a typical team effort).

But anytime I bet against my teams, I'm trying to bet w/ my brain and not my heart....BUT it is money I don't mind losing. Ha. When Dallas was coming back, I was pretty excited.

I've been a fan since birth (thanks Dad!), and won't change teams regardless of how high the frustration gets w/ Jerry, Tony, Garrett, etc. I cheered as hard and watched all the games when 1-15 as in good years. But it is frustrating, and the blame starts at the top.

Great way to put it. For some reason I took Arkansas -6 Saturday. Third time I have bet my team this year, and the other two were ULM and Bama. I took Bama, obviously. So I guess I am 1/3 when betting hog games. I'm done with that.

At halftime, the line was Ole Miss +4. I took that for 50 bucks and felt great about it. Friend sitting with me was so offended I bet against the hogs. I told him if I lose my bet, we probably win the game and I'm fine with it. He bitched at me the whole second half. It was Win-Win in my opinion.

edit: my NCAA lines aren't available yet online and it is irritating me. I am determined to start locking better numbers in early in the week but that is hard to do when you can't see them.

Wildhog

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on October 29, 2012, 12:30:46 pm
Great way to put it. For some reason I took Arkansas -6 Saturday. Third time I have bet my team this year, and the other two were ULM and Bama. I took Bama, obviously. So I guess I am 1/3 when betting hog games. I'm done with that.

At halftime, the line was Ole Miss +4. I took that for 50 bucks and felt great about it. Friend sitting with me was so offended I bet against the hogs. I told him if I lose my bet, we probably win the game and I'm fine with it. He bitched at me the whole second half. It was Win-Win in my opinion.

edit: my NCAA lines aren't available yet online and it is irritating me. I am determined to start locking better numbers in early in the week but that is hard to do when you can't see them.

Where do you make your bets online?
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: Wildhog on October 29, 2012, 12:37:28 pm
Where do you make your bets online?

I go through a guy that uses a website. He takes referrals so if you're interested I could get you in.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 29, 2012, 11:45:38 am
I'm going to start posting my picks at halftime. Seems its easier to win that way

No doubt!
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 29, 2012, 12:05:00 pm
In trying to find information on databases and spreadsheets, I dug up an old article that I ran across in 2010 that you might find interesting for a few points:

it quantified the "bet on a home dog on Monday Night Football": 87-71 as of 2010 (or 55%); and

It also has 3 "system" bets that are rare, very complicated, and very successful:
1) College basketball: a final four bet that between 1991 & 2010 was 16-0 ATS (play against a final four team coming off of 4 wins ATS if it's priced from +2 to +9 & is matched against a 0.800 or better opponent);
2) NBA: a bet that between 1990 & 2010 was 16-0 ATS (play for a 0.657 or better team that's playing with revenge from an 8 point or worse loss to a 0.500 or better opponent, off a win that covered the previous night); and
3) College football: a bet that between 1980 & 2010 was 14-0 (play against an fbs team in its first road game, if it's the 1st or 2d game of the season, and if it's matched against a non-conference foe, off back-to-back losses, with its most recent loss at home, provided the home team isn't favored by more than 14 points). 

Here is the article: http://drbobsports.com/database.pdf

That 55% you are talking about 81-71 doesn't work for me.  If a unit is 100.00 with those numbers  you win 8100.00 and lost 7810.00.  Using 150 games that a little less than a 2 dollar per game profit.  Percentage needs to be a minimum of 62% for me to even consider using a trend.  Not a trend guy.
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 29, 2012, 01:25:16 pm
That 55% you are talking about 81-71 doesn't work for me.  If a unit is 100.00 with those numbers  you win 8100.00 and lost 7810.00.  Using 150 games that a little less than a 2 dollar per game profit.  Percentage needs to be a minimum of 62% for me to even consider using a trend.  Not a trend guy.

I would have guessed that the MNF home dog percentage would have been higher.  I haven't been a trend guy to date, but I'm not above looking for trends to see if they support my leans or increasing my units played if a trend does support my lean. 

 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 29, 2012, 02:14:33 pm
I would have guessed that the MNF home dog percentage would have been higher.  I haven't been a trend guy to date, but I'm not above looking for trends to see if they support my leans or increasing my units played if a trend does support my lean. 

Oh I hear you and agree.  No such thing as too much info when it comes to this stuff.
Let's make some waves.

SPAL

October 29, 2012, 05:16:11 pm #1714 Last Edit: October 30, 2012, 12:12:51 am by sir-pigs-a-lot
San Fran -7.    3 units.....W
Under 38.        1 unit......W

I unit parlay the same way W

3-0 Monday night

YTD 55-41

Hawgndaaz

October 29, 2012, 06:20:45 pm #1715 Last Edit: October 29, 2012, 06:22:46 pm by Hawgndaaz
Took SF -7  2 units

My under is 37.5, not sure i'm going to mess with it though.

Just did a first half parlay

SF -4
O 19  1 unit

SPAL

Closed the week with a bang. Sure is a lot more fun when u win.

widespreadsooie

So I'm thinking Wake -3.5 at home against BC is gold.

What's y'all's take on UF -15.5 at home against Mizzou?

widespreadsooie


Hawgndaaz

Quote from: razorback1 on October 30, 2012, 10:44:25 am
So I'm thinking Wake -3.5 at home against BC is gold.

What's y'all's take on UF -15.5 at home against Mizzou?

I like both of those. UF's defense should shut down Mizzou without a problem.

Going to take Boise at home again, why not.

Got Oregon @ USC last night. Line was 7.5 so I bought half a point to sleep better.

widespreadsooie

Oregon should be fine as long as the hype doesn't get to them. Boise's a coin flip in my opinion. K State could be the lock of the week.

JOHNP

Any thoughts on Ark St -4.5? They looked good last week against Lafayette.

SPAL

Quote from: JOHNP on October 30, 2012, 11:31:52 am
Any thoughts on Ark St -4.5? They looked good last week against Lafayette.

It's on my board. I'm researching it. Looks too good though...but for now I like it.

JOHNP

I was thinking the same. I did notice that A-State is playing La-Mon next. Dont know if that will affect this week or not.

 

SPAL

Quote from: JOHNP on October 30, 2012, 11:47:06 am
I was thinking the same. I did notice that A-State is playing La-Mon next. Dont know if that will affect this week or not.

Could be a factor. A state coming off a big road win and playing on the road is a part of it too.

JOHNP

I have not seen anyone mention Clemson -13.5. Any takers?

widespreadsooie

Quote from: JOHNP on October 30, 2012, 01:52:17 pm
I have not seen anyone mention Clemson -13.5. Any takers?

Duke is a bit unpredictable as far as covering the spread is concerned and they're at home so I deem it as something that isn't playable for myself.

SPAL

October 30, 2012, 04:10:25 pm #1727 Last Edit: October 30, 2012, 08:29:22 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot
Gonna try my hand in the league ....

Cavs -5.5    1.5 units......W

YTD RECORD 56-41

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 30, 2012, 04:10:25 pm
Gonna try my hand in the league ....

Cavs -5.5    1.5 units

Rarely do I get near that league. Haven't watched a game in 10 years.  Bet a few last year late in the season, but no longer a sport to me.
Let's make some waves.

SPAL

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 30, 2012, 06:16:21 pm
Rarely do I get near that league. Haven't watched a game in 10 years.  Bet a few last year late in the season, but no longer a sport to me.

Haha. I feel ya bro. I hate the nba. I do however like to make money and I'll dabble around and play a few games if I feel I can make some coin. Tonight was one of those times.

SPAL

October 31, 2012, 04:20:02 pm #1730 Last Edit: November 01, 2012, 12:47:04 am by sir-pigs-a-lot
Clippers -3.                   4 units....W
Spurs/hornets u187.5.   2 units.....L

YTD RECORD 57-42

widespreadsooie

I think I've solidified my picks for Saturday:

UF -17
Wake -3.5
Indiana -1.5
Bama -9.5
K State -9.5

I know they're all favorites, but I prefer making up points with the better team (usually) than trying to hang on to 'em with the lesser of the two.

Hawgndaaz

I've never wagered on NBA. Think I am going to do some real small bets to get the feel for it. Anything I need to know about basketball wagers in general?

just did a parlay for shnits and giggles

bulls -6
clippers -3.5
lakers -2.5 @ blazers

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on October 31, 2012, 04:46:49 pm
I've never wagered on NBA. Think I am going to do some real small bets to get the feel for it. Anything I need to know about basketball wagers in general?

just did a parlay for shnits and giggles

bulls -6
clippers -3.5
lakers -2.5 @ blazers


Eh I used to play the nba quite a bit when I followed it more.  Barkley, Bird, Jordan, magic,  during those days.  I memory serves look hard against the team playing in consecutive nights especially if thy are the road team and favored.

I don't have much to offer sorry.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Kent St -19 / 4 units
Clemson -13.5 / 5 units
Clemson Duke over 65 / 5 units
W Va -7 / 3 units
Pitt +19 / 5 units
Oregon -8 / 3 units

Leaning toward Florida - and ole piss +, but still uncommitted on those two.
Let's make some waves.

Hawgndaaz


McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

DadVader1

November 01, 2012, 03:36:20 pm #1737 Last Edit: December 06, 2012, 10:21:28 pm by DadVader1
This week, I've done:

Ole Miss +14 @ GA  4 units
A&M -6.5 @ MS State 2 units
A&M -7 @ MS State 2 units
Bama -8.5 @ LSU 10 units
FL -17 v. MO  10 units

Added:
Kentucky +7 v. Vandy (1 unit)
Tulsa +9 @ Hogs (1 unit)

Added, Part 2:
A&M -6.5 (6 units ... finally figured out how to buy the hook)

SPAL

November 01, 2012, 03:51:02 pm #1738 Last Edit: November 01, 2012, 10:28:42 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot
Chargers -7   3 units........W
Miami fl +2    1 unit.........W

YTD RECORD 59-42

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 01, 2012, 03:51:02 pm
Chargers -7   3 units
Miami fl +2    1 unit

I so want to jump on Miami tonight, but VTech has screwed me in every game that I've bet on this year, that they are playing in. So tempted.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hawgndaaz

I took chargers at -8. risky but the chiefs are turrible. plus, i've developed a gambling problem.

will bet small on miami i think.

SPAL

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on November 01, 2012, 03:56:33 pm
I so want to jump on Miami tonight, but VTech has screwed me in every game that I've bet on this year, that they are playing in. So tempted.
the va tech split personality is why I'm only playing small. I almost bet the money line.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

Hawgndaaz

Took Miami +1.5

Their defense looks strikingly resemblant to a certain sec west school many of us root for :(

McKdaddy

KC  +7  Opened +9, now at +7, w/ 65% public on SD.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

yraciv

November 01, 2012, 07:31:22 pm #1745 Last Edit: November 01, 2012, 07:35:26 pm by yraciv
I'm going to put 1 unit on the Chiefs tonight +7. Cheifs are bad, but Chargers haven't looked much better and were down right awful last week.  And I'm going to stick to football picks in here for my record, but if you guys still are trying to dabble on NBA games take the Spurs tonight.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: yraciv on November 01, 2012, 07:31:22 pm
I'm going to put 1 unit on the Chiefs tonight +7. Cheifs are bad, but Chargers haven't looked much better and were down right awful last week.  And I'm going to stick to football picks in here for my record, but if you guys still are trying to dabble on NBA games take the Spurs tonight.

Lol thanks ad prob a good pick, but NBA for the most part no way.  That could hange though. Never know.  Good luck!
Let's make some waves.

SPAL


yraciv

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 01, 2012, 09:31:30 pm
You guys play NCAA hoops?

I couldn't do this year long. I throw in NBA or College Basketball games every now and then, but there are just way too many of them. I'll glance at those lines from time to time, but something really has to stick out. And I'm a bigger basketball fan, so can't say the temptation isn't there.

SPAL

Big 2-0 Thursday night. I'm killing Thursday night football. To say I'm on the best run of my life is an understatement . I imagine I'll cool off again eventually, but for now I am on fire and enjoying the ride.