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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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BoynamedWooPigSooie

Seeing Florida game with a +10 for the Hogs.  I've said for months that we win in the swamp.  I think we can easily beat a 10 pt spread.
Hogville's resident uniform designer.

SPAL

Quote from: BoynamedWooPigSooie on September 29, 2013, 07:49:17 pm
Seeing Florida game with a +10 for the Hogs.  I've said for months that we win in the swamp.  I think we can easily beat a 10 pt spread.

thm oh boys mite b redy to beat an ole gatr. I mite beg an brrw frm hogvil ole loan. Ole bret will hav them ole boys redy to go. It mire be good of an ole dime ifn you can stil afgrd shoes for them yunguns. Good luck fellers who betted them ole hogs.

 

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 25, 2013, 01:26:35 pm
Official Picks for Weekend of 9/28:


Navy -3 @ Western Kentucky -- 5*

LSU +3 @ Georgia -- 3*

Vanderbilt -19.5 vs UAB -- 3*

Oklahoma State -18 @ WVU -- 3*

Florida -12.5 @ Kentucky -- 3*

Ole Miss @ Alabama Over 55.5 -- 2*

South Alabama +19.5 @ Tennessee -- 1*



Great weekend of football, have 20 units on the line (more than normal). Hopefully make up for last Sunday. Good luck this weekend everyone

another tough one here.  3-3-1 for -3 units.  I need to stick to SEC.  Been doing pretty well in there.  Went 3-1-1 this weekend for +5 units.  Think I did well last weekend.  Anything outside of SEC though has been killing me.

Huckleberry Pig


Overall Record:  15-17-3
5*: 0-2-0   (-10 units)
3*: 7-6-1   (+3 units)
2*: 7-4-2   (+6 units)
1*: 8-14-0   (-6 units)

P/L: -7 units

Gotta get this turned around.


Huckleberry Pig

On a brighter note, I looked back and think I am 9-3-1 on SEC plays.  Just need to stick with the SEC apparently cause I can't hit anything outside of it

widespreadsooie

I'll get my YTD record up sometime soon. I'm thinking 30-21 off the top of my head.

Some lines poppin out for me in week 6:

ISU +9 vs. Texas
IL +10.5 @ NE
LSU -9.5 @ Sip St.
BAY -27.5 vs. WVU
WAS +6.5 @ Stanford- Really high on this WAS team, but I think I'm a bit lower on Stanford than I really should be.

widespreadsooie

Went on and locked in LSU at 9.5. Don't see it getting any lower and anticipate it moving over 10.

WILL CLINTON

Someone is going to have to convince me to play more than 2 or three games this weekend.

Liking LSU v Miss St, Oregon to cover anything under 40, and that's about it that I see.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

SPAL

For as good as I am in college football this season, I'm equally as awful in the NFL. Shoulda left well enough alone and stayed away from the Sunday night game.

Updated record through 9-29:

TOTAL 42-29-3 (.592)

NCAA RECORD            NFL RECORD 
33-18-1                     9-11-2
1 unit plays: 16-5       5-4
2 unit plays: 6-7-1      0-3-1
3 unit plays: 9-3         2-3-1
4 unit plays: 1-3         2-1
5 unit plays: 1-0         0-0

SPAL

Gotta get better in the NFL so 2 plays tonight.


Miami +7.5  2 units
U/48.          1 unit


MLB PARLAY:

Rays /o7.5

checkraiser88

Georgia State +55 against Bama! There's no way Bama runs the score up on em!

widespreadsooie

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on September 30, 2013, 02:29:14 pm
Someone is going to have to convince me to play more than 2 or three games this weekend.

Liking LSU v Miss St, Oregon to cover anything under 40, and that's about it that I see.


I would take a good look at Baylor. I'll be researching that game over the next couple days.

 

DadVader1

Here are my leans for this week:

Strong leans.  These each fell in a large trend hitting >60+%, in a few smaller trends hitting at >80+%, and all but one fell into at least one small trend hitting at 100%:

Bowling Green -25 vs. Mass  - UMass is terrible. BG has a better record ATS, a better record SU, Total O is much better, rushing O is better, and third down efficiency is much better.

VA Tech -7 v. NC - Va Tech has one of the best D's in the country, a better record ATS, a better record SU, is fairly predictable by the power systems, and has a better rushing O

New Mex -8.5 v. New Mex St. - New Mexico St. is terrible.  NM isn't great but has a better rushing O, a better scoring O, better total O, and better 3rd down efficiency.

Toledo -20 v. W. Mich - Toledo has been fairly predictable by the power systems, it has a better record SU, a better rushing O, and better third down efficiency.

UTEP +1 v. La Tech - UTEP has a better rushing O and a MUCH better third down efficiency.

Lean: This one fell in a large trend hitting >60+%, in a few smaller trends hitting at >80+%, and a lot of the systems are picking Buffalo:

Buffalo -13.5 v. E. Mich

Please poke holes in these if you see anything that looks off.  Thanks.

DadVader1

The spreadsheets also like Florida -10.5 v. Arkansas and South Carolina -21 v. Kentucky.  I didn't list them as leans because I lack confidence in the O's of FL and SC.

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

DadVader1

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 30, 2013, 11:52:27 am

ISU +9 vs. Texas. 


WAS +6.5 @ Stanford- Really high on this WAS team, but I think I'm a bit lower on Stanford than I really should be.

The spreadsheets like Iowa State +9 v. TX, but they also like Stanford to cover -6.5 v. Wash.  Stanford fits in one subset trend that has hit on 9 out of 9.  Apparently, a lot of other people like ISU, because it was ISU +7.5 when I just looked it up.

WILL CLINTON

Vader, the only thing that jumps out to me, is that it picks favorites. The only one it didn't, was a one point dog, and depending on where that game is, it could actually be a favorite, but the home point advantage pushed it into dog territory. I don't know if it has been this way since you started, but just something to look at. I'm not saying it's wrong at all, it could be dead on every one of them. Just something I noticed.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

SPAL

Monday night 10$ free bet :

Player to get 1st first down....

Ryan tannehill +1000
10 dollars to win 100

SPAL

NC state -8 at wake looks good. Putting it on my board.

DadVader1

September 30, 2013, 06:45:49 pm #4870 Last Edit: September 30, 2013, 10:11:49 pm by DadVader1
Quote from: WILL CLINTON on September 30, 2013, 06:07:08 pm
Vader, the only thing that jumps out to me, is that it picks favorites. The only one it didn't, was a one point dog, and depending on where that game is, it could actually be a favorite, but the home point advantage pushed it into dog territory. I don't know if it has been this way since you started, but just something to look at. I'm not saying it's wrong at all, it could be dead on every one of them. Just something I noticed.

Yes, you are correct, and thanks for pointing out that tendency.  Build out takes a lot of time, so I haven't had time to cover all angles.  I've started trying to build another set of sheets to look for dogs, but I haven't gotten that done yet.  It's basically leaving half of the really good games un-discovered.  It also has a tendency toward home teams, but that is just the way the numbers are playing out.  It's apparently easier to find edges for home teams than for road teams. 

One of the biggest pains in the arse about it is that the spreadsheets are so massive that I have to split them up, and it takes a while to open the larger ones.  One set that did most of the data manipulation ended up being 5 files at 200MB each.  I ended up streamlining them and breaking them up into 10 files of 90MB each to make them easier to handle.  One of these days, I'm going to have to learn how to build a database to help with that problem, but I just really like the result summaries that I can build with spreadsheets.  I also think I'll be able to find 7 or 8 games each week that should hit at around 70+%, so I don't have a great sense of urgency to finish building out a set to look for dogs.  It's also faster and easier to add filters to what I already have, so I'm still looking for good sources of downloadable data to filter the numbers.  I should be able to filter the data using red zone efficiency, 1st down efficiency, and quarterback ratings after this week (although it will take a few weeks to build up data on those filters).

widespreadsooie

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 30, 2013, 06:24:15 pm
NC state -8 at wake looks good. Putting it on my board.

If NC St. can play D like they did against Clemson, should be an easy cover. WF has a bad offense.

widespreadsooie

Interesting GOY plays I can take on my site, what do y'all think about these?

NC St. PK vs. UNC
BAY -9 vs. Texas


ur

Some other early leans. OU over TCU, Central Florida over Memphis, Miami if their QB and rb are healthy, Baylor over WVA, WKen over UL Monroe if QB out,

Poss: Maryland to cover FSU. UCLA over Utah, Stanford over Wash,

Injuries: Neb QB has turf toe, WVA QB dinged up at end of game, UL Monroe QB hurt,

What do you guys think of LSU-miss state and Georgia-Tenn? On the fence on the favs for those two.

 

widespreadsooie

YTD records:

29-21-1 Overall
13-7 Totals
16-11-1 ATS
0-3 Teases

DadVader1

Quote from: ur on September 30, 2013, 07:51:45 pm
Some other early leans. OU over TCU, Central Florida over Memphis, Miami if their QB and rb are healthy, Baylor over WVA, WKen over UL Monroe if QB out,

Poss: Maryland to cover FSU. UCLA over Utah, Stanford over Wash,

Injuries: Neb QB has turf toe, WVA QB dinged up at end of game, UL Monroe QB hurt,

What do you guys think of LSU-miss state and Georgia-Tenn? On the fence on the favs for those two.

I like OU over TCU and lean Stanford over Wash.  With Gurley probably hurt, I'd probably sit out the GA game.  Thanks for the injury updates!  Is there a good place that consolidates injury information?  It can be a pain to try to find more than just a one or two word blurb for that kind of info on a large number of plays.

DadVader1

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 30, 2013, 07:09:51 pm
Interesting GOY plays I can take on my site, what do y'all think about these?

NC St. PK vs. UNC
BAY -9 vs. Texas



Both look very interesting.  I'd give an edge to NC St. and a big edge to Baylor.  Baylor has HUGE mismatches with TX in most areas of interest, and I doubt that TX will close those gaps in the next few weeks.  These are obviously gut answers and without spreadsheet data, but I like both.

ur

Quote from: DadVader1 on September 30, 2013, 09:49:01 pm
I like OU over TCU and lean Stanford over Wash.  With Gurley probably hurt, I'd probably sit out the GA game.  Thanks for the injury updates!  Is there a good place that consolidates injury information?  It can be a pain to try to find more than just a one or two word blurb for that kind of info on a large number of plays.
I haven't found a consolidated place for injury updates. I look at vegasinsider on the odds page and below each game it gives some injury updates. Also, espn will give some. When I narrow down to the games I want to play, I read the espn game previews and even the conversations. The conversations are usually fans mouthing off but some actually give some good pointers about their team and also mention some injuries the national press don't pick up on.

ur

Quote from: DadVader1 on September 30, 2013, 10:06:12 pm
Both look very interesting.  I'd give an edge to NC St. and a big edge to Baylor.  Baylor has HUGE mismatches with TX in most areas of interest, and I doubt that TX will close those gaps in the next few weeks.  These are obviously gut answers and without spreadsheet data, but I like both.
Quote from: DadVader1 on September 30, 2013, 09:49:01 pm
I like OU over TCU and lean Stanford over Wash.  With Gurley probably hurt, I'd probably sit out the GA game.  Thanks for the injury updates!  Is there a good place that consolidates injury information?  It can be a pain to try to find more than just a one or two word blurb for that kind of info on a large number of plays.
Just found this.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/09/30/college-football-injury-report-after-week-5-todd-gurley-marlin-lane-david-ash/2895521/

DadVader1

Thanks.  That is similar to what I do.

Back to widespread's question about Wash/Stanford, I'm thinking that Sarkisian being a prime candidate for the USC job might be a bit of a distraction, so I'm more inclined to go with the spreadsheet lean toward Stanford.

DadVader1

Thanks Ur!  That's exactly the type of consolidated injury info that I hoped to find.  I just hope that they do it as a regular feature.

SPAL


checkraiser88

Georgia State +55(Has Alabama beat any team by 55 points in the last 10 years?)
Rutgers -6.5(Only a 6.5 favorite over SMU? A team that is 1-3?)
Illinois +10.5

DadVader1

September 30, 2013, 11:32:05 pm #4883 Last Edit: October 01, 2013, 08:49:47 am by DadVader1
Rutgers has the 93rd ranked passing D against SMU's 11th ranked passing O, Rutgers stats are probably padded (their passing D is probably worse than their ranking) after facing our one-dimensional O w/o BA, SMU has faced stiffer opponents, and the power ranking systems are split on the game.  I'm not advocating taking SMU, but it might be a game to skip.  I like GA St. +55 b/c I don't think it's Bama's style to run up the score that high, and I like Ill.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: DadVader1 on September 30, 2013, 10:28:15 pm
Thanks.  That is similar to what I do.

Back to widespread's question about Wash/Stanford, I'm thinking that Sarkisian being a prime candidate for the USC job might be a bit of a distraction, so I'm more inclined to go with the spreadsheet lean toward Stanford.

Yeah, I think I'm going to shy away from this game. Stanford looked too good last week and for whatever reason I've become biased towards WAS. I'm also developing a dark horse bias for Baylor. I think they're legit.

ur

Is the o/u for Baylor-wva 64? If so then seems like over is the bet. If Baylor blows them out they will score 64 by themselves. If wva can score on baylor then they should easily top 64 combined. I don't see any defense in this game.

DadVader1

Baylor looks legit, but they've dined on a steady diet of cupcakes up to this point.  They're the #1 passing O, #5 rushing O, #1 total O, #1 scoring O, and their D stats aren't bad.  They're the #2 scoring D, #25 rushing D, and #30 passing D.  W. VA will be by FAR the best opponent they've faced, so this week will give us a better feel for whether Baylor is for real.  I think they are.

kimjongsqUeAl

The Tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time, with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
- Thomas Jefferson

My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge: because thou hast rejected knowledge...
- God

widespreadsooie

Quote from: ur on October 01, 2013, 08:26:12 am
Is the o/u for Baylor-wva 64? If so then seems like over is the bet. If Baylor blows them out they will score 64 by themselves. If wva can score on baylor then they should easily top 64 combined. I don't see any defense in this game.

Like it.

The total I'm in love with though is u56 SC/KY. Stone cold lead pipe lock of the century if they existed.

SPAL


SPAL

I'm gonna do something stupid and play some hockey. Looking at some numbers from last year and trying to find the best value bet, I came up with

Winnipeg Jets +120

This is not just a guess, but it's also not some kind of elaborate system. I've never picked hockey. But the way the NFL has treated me, I can't be any worse with hockey.

So 1 unit on the jets +120

Hawgndaaz

Jeff should be able to help you on the hockey side of things..

OldCoot

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 29, 2013, 09:17:35 pm
thm oh boys mite b redy to beat an ole gatr. I mite beg an brrw frm hogvil ole loan. Ole bret will hav them ole boys redy to go. It mire be good of an ole dime ifn you can stil afgrd shoes for them yunguns. Good luck fellers who betted them ole hogs.

Please tell me that wasn't your sockpuppet.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 01, 2013, 04:47:10 pm
I'm gonna do something stupid and play some hockey. Looking at some numbers from last year and trying to find the best value bet, I came up with

Winnipeg Jets +120

This is not just a guess, but it's also not some kind of elaborate system. I've never picked hockey. But the way the NFL has treated me, I can't be any worse with hockey.

So 1 unit on the jets +120

Hockey betting is a combo of the crap league NBA ( meaning travel and such).  And a HOT GOALIE.

I like teams with serious firepower as well and often play the 1.5 goal line instead of money line. Varies though.
Let's make some waves.

SPAL

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 01, 2013, 07:58:46 pm
Hockey betting is a combo of the crap league NBA ( meaning travel and such).  And a HOT GOALIE.

I like teams with serious firepower as well and often play the 1.5 goal line instead of money line. Varies though.

Awesome...thanks for the tip. Look forward to anything else you care to share.

SPAL

Quote from: Dude on October 01, 2013, 05:06:23 pm
Please tell me that wasn't your sockpuppet.

Haha...no chance. Just my attempt at typing like BJO. It's pretty difficult to do that on purpose.

SPAL

Pay attention to the following message....

NHL YTD RECORD:
1-0

I may retire betting NHL so that I can say I never lost a hockey bet. Beginners luck for sure.

Big mlb playoff win as a 4 unit play on the pirates. Lost a unit on the under but Cueto didn't have his best stuff. No way that total should have eclipsed 6. Oh well, great night overall.

widespreadsooie

Two more totals I like a whole lot along with SC/KY u55 are MIZ/Vandy o56 and USF/Cincy u48.5.

Huckleberry Pig

NCAA Picks for this weekend:

Arkansas (+11) @ Florida -- 5* - Upset alert for me here. Saw good things from us against aggies. Florida a little overrated IMO. Think we goes down there and keep this one close.

Georgia (-10.5) @ Tennessee -- 2* - Tennessee has tough time keeping up with good O's.

LSU (-9.5) @ Miss St -- 2* - LSU will not be happy after that loss. Look for them to take it out on a bad Miss St. Team

Auburn (+2.5) vs Ole Miss -- 1* - Pretty torn here. Think Ole Miss better talent but Auburn has improved every week and they have had an extra week to prepare. Also at home. Think this one goes down to the wire.

South Carolina (-21) vs Kentucky -- 1* - Night game at home after a close call on the road. I look for them to be ready. Kentucky no offense. 1* because it's a lot of points.

Vanderbilt (-1.5) vs Mizzou -- 1* - Have seen Vandy put up some good fights already, will be Mizzou's first real competition this year. Again, night game at home for Vandy. they know this is a must win, like them here.

Arkansas ML (+345) -- .5* - Again, upset alert. Think we give Florida all they can take. We looked good and Allen will be back for second straight week. More reps, more comfortable, should be better here. Also, Florida offense not that impressive, our D line pretty good. Think this one stays close.

Huckleberry Pig

Second favorite sport has begun. Base most of my picks off a back-to-back system I've been gathering stats on covering the last two years. Follow some trends on there. 1* = 1 unit, 2* = 2 units, etc. I will tell you whether it's a B2B spreadsheet play or just a normal play.

Spreadsheet Plays 10-2:

Flyers -.5 (+119) -- 1*
Flyers -1.5 (+210) -- .5*
Leafs @ Flyers O5.5 (-135) -- 1*

Last year Leafs were 4-5 in B2B situations (not too bad). However, when those games were on the road they were 2-4. Also, teams that won the first road game of b2b road games went on to lose the second road game 65% of the time. Side note, out of the Leafs 5 losses last year in B2B games, 4 of them came by 2 goals or more (hence why i'm taking a shot at the Flyers -1.5).

In regards to totals, 6 of the 9 Leafs B2B games last year went O5.5 goals.


Normal Plays 10-2:

Redwings -.5 (-115) -- 1*