Predictions for 2016

[HawgWild]

Anyone want to go out on a limb and venture a prediction for 2016?

[PEtrader]

Move up in oil

[HawgWild]

I'd like to see a move up in oil as well but I'm having trouble seeing how it can given that production levels still out pace demand. And then there's Iranian oil hitting the market. I'm more optimistic about a quicker recovery for natural gas.

[PonderinHog]

Good morning...

[DLUXHOG]

12-0

[aristotle]

Euro to Dollar hits parity.

[ricepig]

Open the year up about 2%, how did I do?

[HawgWild]

Open the year up about 2%, how did I do?

Don't quit your day job. Oh wait, you already have.  I may have to get one if my stock portfolio has a another year like this last one. My index funds were collectively stagnant but those stocks, CNP, NRG, WMT, SD, man.

[ricepig]

Don't quit your day job. Oh wait, you already have.  I may have to get one if my stock portfolio has a another year like this last one. My index funds were collectively stagnant but those stocks, CNP, NRG, WMT, SD, man.

I'm with you on a few of those, especially WM, but I had a few winners. I'm glad I don't have to eat on that money this past year, although it wouldn't have hurt me to starve a few months like my portfolio.

[HawgWild]

Yeah, a year ago I was wondering if WMT was going to split when it hit $100. It's a long way from that now but I bet it has a pretty good 2016.

[HawgWild]

These guys on CNBC are all gloom and doom. One said to sell everything and go to cash, even in your 401K.

[ricepig]

These guys on CNBC are all gloom and doom. One said to sell everything and go to cash, even in your 401K.

Hmm, I've never seen it when one of the regulars wasn't buying, it must have been the one bear they allow on per day.

[HawgWild]

I think it was "BK", the guy that won the 2015 investment challenge. The others were saying things like ride it out, stick with your plan, etc. but he was saying he was going all cash. He also mentioned "global recession". Like I said, the most negative talk I've heard since 2008.

[ricepig]

I think it was "BK", the guy that won the 2015 investment challenge. The others were saying things like ride it out, stick with your plan, etc. but he was saying he was going all cash. He also mentioned "global recession". Like I said, the most negative talk I've heard since 2008.

I've usually had enough market news by the time Fast Money is on, I don't catch it very often. As far as negative talk, there's always someone on selling the contrarian opinion, kind of like Danny Kanell and Finebaum on CF Today, lol.

[Old Tusk]

I think he was making a perfectly valid point. Everyone on the show was in agreement that the S&P is headed to 1820. If you believe that, why would you not get out and a void the loses? The stay the course theory died when the Fed started up the bubble machine. If you were in cash for the last 480 days rather than the S&P , you have more money.  Another way to say it is why accept downside risk if there is no upside?

[ricepig]

I think he was making a perfectly valid point. Everyone on the show was in agreement that the S&P is headed to 1820. If you believe that, why would you not get out and a void the loses? The stay the course theory died when the Fed started up the bubble machine. If you were in cash for the last 480 days rather than the S&P , you have more money.  Another way to say it is why accept downside risk if there is no upside?

So, you've gotten out at every top, and back in on the bottom? Some people are traders, and some are investors, big difference.

[HawgWild]

You guys investing in the stock market are suckers! I got my Powerball tickets and I'm going to be rich!!!!! 

[Old Tusk]

So, you've gotten out at every top, and back in on the bottom? Some people are traders, and some are investors, big difference.

. So far, since 2000.

[ricepig]

. So far, since 2000.

Uh huh, sure......

[ricepig]

You guys investing in the stock market are suckers! I got my Powerball tickets and I'm going to be rich!!!!! 

Only if you actually picked your numbers and they match my quick pick numbers........

[Old Tusk]

Uh huh, sure......

.   This is only the second top since 2000. Why do you consider it so unbelievable? Probably because it questions your buy and hold mentality. In the day when the market followed the normal business cycle, it was a perfectly good strategy. But Fed induced bubble cycles have really made it a losing strategy.

[ricepig]

.   This is only the second top since 2000. Why do you consider it so unbelievable? Probably because it questions your buy and hold mentality. In the day when the market followed the normal business cycle, it was a perfectly good strategy. But Fed induced bubble cycles have really made it a losing strategy.

Ok, what is your cash earning you?

[Old Tusk]

Zero is better than negative.

[ErieHog]

A stagnant year in the US market, bogged down by declines in Pacific exchanges.   Some volatility in the currency markets, and persistently lagging oil price recovery.

No more upticks in the fed rate, though.

[Old Tusk]

A stagnant year in the US market, bogged down by declines in Pacific exchanges.   Some volatility in the currency markets, and persistently lagging oil price recovery.

No more upticks in the fed rate, though.

.   Want to bet?

[ricepig]

Zero is better than negative.

Negative??? If my dividend is being paid, and in 25 years I've never had one that wasn't, and I don't bailout and the price comes back, I haven't lost anything to be a negative. It's worked well for me, I don't think I'll change, but thanks anyway.

[Old Tusk]

Negative??? If my dividend is being paid, and in 25 years I've never had one that wasn't, and I don't bailout and the price comes back, I haven't lost anything to be a negative. It's worked well for me, I don't think I'll change, but thanks anyway.

.   So you are banking a 3% divided while the stock tanks  30% but somehow you are making money.

[PEtrader]

I think he was making a perfectly valid point. Everyone on the show was in agreement that the S&P is headed to 1820. If you believe that, why would you not get out and a void the loses? The stay the course theory died when the Fed started up the bubble machine. If you were in cash for the last 480 days rather than the S&P , you have more money.  Another way to say it is why accept downside risk if there is no upside?

I took a lot of clients to half cash in December and this week, but one issue with trading out is the tax ramifications for some folks. 

[ricepig]

.   So you are banking a 3% divided while the stock tanks  30% but somehow you are making money.

I guess you don't understand that if I don't sell, I don't lose anything?  It's no different than day to day price gyrations, but I guess that's hard for you to understand. It's no different than if something goes up 30% and you don't sell, you never had it.

[Old Tusk]

I guess you don't understand that if I don't sell, I don't lose anything?  It's no different than day to day price gyrations, but I guess that's hard for you to understand. It's no different than if something goes up 30% and you don't sell, you never had it.

I understand that if I pay $100 for a share and the price falls to $50 per share, I can pretend it is worth $100 until I sell it, but the reality an asset is worth what you can sell it for. If you hold it long enough could it again worth $100? Sure. On the other side, I could sell it for $100 and repurchase two shares at $50. I'm not saying your strategy couldn't be successful, but that there are reasons to beleive other strategies could be more successful in today's market. I know Wall Street has taught us that cash is a four lettered word, but cash is not evil.

[ricepig]

I understand that if I pay $100 for a share and the price falls to $50 per share, I can pretend it is worth $100 until I sell it, but the reality an asset is worth what you can sell it for. If you hold it long enough could it again worth $100? Sure. On the other side, I could sell it for $100 and repurchase two shares at $50. I'm not saying your strategy couldn't be successful, but that there are reasons to beleive other strategies could be more successful in today's market. I know Wall Street has taught us that cash is a four lettered word, but cash is not evil.

Again, I don't try to pick the tops or bottoms, so they money I have in equities generally stays in equities. I have the bulk in real estate, and definitely some in cash.

[Old Tusk]

I am not picking a top. The market told us mothes ago that it had topped.

[ricepig]

I am not picking a top. The market told us mothes ago that it had topped.

Not my stocks, but thanks anyway.

[HawgWild]

FWIW - J.P. Morgan Chase has turned its back on the stock market: For the first time in seven years, the investment bank is urging investors to sell stocks on any bounce.

[HawgWild]

Well, yesterday was a bounce...............

[McKdaddy]

Well, yesterday was a bounce...............

like a dead cat

[ricepig]

I love these buying opportunities!