Vegas point spread when Bama comes to town?

[hogcard1964]

Bama opened as a 13 pt fav.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

I'll take the Hogs, thank you very much.

[ErieHog]

A little surprising.  We tend to play very well as Vegas dogs the past few seasons, so they've taken to giving us tighter lines than usual.     This one is at odds with that.

[jacobp]

I'd jump on it. I bet it's down to 10 or 10.5 at least by game day

[GoHogs1091]

They probably don't really know what kind of line to use concerning Alabama and a game on the road for Alabama.

Alabama has relatively inexperienced True Freshman starting QB.

Alabama doesn't have a proven bell-cow Running Back.

Alabama's Defense has faced only one decent Offense this season, and they gave up 43 points to that decent Offense.

[Poker_hog]

It's +13.5. Worse than I was expecting

[SPAL]

I'd jump on it. I bet it's down to 10 or 10.5 at least by game day

It will definitely move the other direction

[hoglady]

Bama opened as a 13 pt fav.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

Well - I nailed that right on the money.

[reddogjcss]

BAMA -13.5

[kodiakisland]

That means someone in Vegas actually troubled themselves to watch the Alcorn State game, and didn't just rely on the stats to do their job.   

Oh, I think the stats would give some concern.  2 for 7 on 3rd down and 0 for 2 on 4th down. Maybe they figure bama to have a better defense.  They may also have looked at the A&M game stats.  A&M had struggled to convert 3rd downs prior to playing us.  Maybe they figure Bama will have the same amount of success.

Anyway, lots of reasons I think for that spread.  Probably more to induce betting on both sides.  I expect a low scoring game and think it will be closer to a 7 point spread, whoever wins.

[HogFanInBryant]

Alabama opened at -14 on scoresandodds.com

[hoglady]

Oh, I think the stats would give some concern.  2 for 7 on 3rd down and 0 for 2 on 4th down. Maybe they figure bama to have a better defense.  They may also have looked at the A&M game stats.  A&M had struggled to convert 3rd downs prior to playing us.  Maybe they figure Bama will have the same amount of success.

Anyway, lots of reasons I think for that spread.  Probably more to induce betting on both sides.  I expect a low scoring game and think it will be closer to a 7 point spread, whoever wins.

Plus the TCU win doesn't look near as good now as it did when it happened.
We struggled in the second half against TCU and A&M - Bama is normally a strong second half team.
I think the line is pretty close to where it should be.

[Razor1997]

13 seems way too high.  I think Alabama will probably win, but we've played them very tough the last couple of years.  If I were a gambler I'd put money on the Hogs.

[hoglady]

13 seems way too high.  I think Alabama will probably win, but we've played them very tough the last couple of years.  If I were a gambler I'd put money on the Hogs.

If we don't improve our second half play - Bama will destroy us in the 3rd and 4th quarter.
In the TCU and A&M games we were outscored in the second half 56-22 - that can't happen in this game.