Welcome to Hogville!      Do Not Sell My Personal Information

OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

widespreadsooie

I believe my card is final:

WAS -8...2u
Wazzu +10...1u
LSU +3...1u
Bama -14...1u
ORE/CAL u84...1u


Also have Hogs +13 and A&M -14 for 2 units a piece that I'm not attributing to my record unless they don't end up cancelling out, which would be 13 or 14 point final difference. I'll take an L in that case.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

 

BoynamedWooPigSooie

Didn't bet last week because I didn't like the games or the match ups, glad I didn't because I'd have gotten torched.  Though my NFL picks did well.


I just looked at the slate for this week and here's a couple that I think have good probabilities.


Tonight I like Iowa St. getting the 3 pts.   I'm not gonna play the ACC game but I like GT covering 7 and taking the over.  I have a feeling it might be a shootout type of game for those 2 teams.


On Sat.

Middle TN St. getting 24 pts against BYU is interesting.
S. Carolina only having to cover 7 against UCF.
SMU getting 19 against TCU.
The over in the Tennessee/S. Alabama game (53).
The under in Duke/Troy (68.5).
LSU getting 3 against Georgia, and I like the under in the game too (62)  I could see a total score at 59-60.
Arizona getting 10 at Washington
Wyoming needing to cover 12 against Texas St.
Stanford covering 9 against Washington St.
Boise St. covering 28 against Southern Miss


In games of interest

If we had Brandon Allen 100% I'd have taken the hogs and +6, We have who we have so the smart play is A&M at -15, but I still think we match up better against A&M than anyone realizes.   So if I'm gonna be heartbroken I might as well be broke too.  I'm not playing the game but if I were I'd put my $ on Arkansas so my heart and my wallet won't be fighting each other.

Wisconsin +7 against OSU.   I've been riding Wisconsin so far and haven't lost yet, Bielema left them in pretty good shape and I like Andersen as a coach.  Not sure if they win, likely won't, but I think it'll be a close game and the Badgers can cover.
Hogville's resident uniform designer.

McHogLovin

At A&M -15 you guys had better be careful.  I know I've pointed this out a couple times but HV has lost every single game they bet heavy on together.  All of em this year.  Beware.

BJOhog

September 26, 2013, 05:23:03 pm #4704 Last Edit: September 26, 2013, 06:29:04 pm by billyjoeozark
anyone selse like the yankees to win tonight to avoid the sweep?



btw adding one
5323 F.Gore rushing yards over 78½ +130
3 units

McHogLovin

A&M just went from -15 to -14 on 5Dimes pretty quickly.

widespreadsooie


MuskogeeHogFan

OK, GT is killing me. 2 T/O's, just 21 yards less offense than Va Tech when they should have at least 200 yds and they are winning the TOP at halftime? I know VT has a good defense, but jiminee! 
Go Hogs Go!

BJOhog

September 26, 2013, 08:14:32 pm #4708 Last Edit: September 26, 2013, 09:14:53 pm by billyjoeozark
Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on September 26, 2013, 08:07:57 pm
OK, GT is killing me. 2 T/O's, just 21 yards less offense than Va Tech when they should have at least 200 yds and they are winning the TOP at halftime? I know VT has a good defense, but jiminee!
No va tech has an elite defense and plays well on road and openers in confrence. Also have a vet qb.

It ain't over yet I don't feel comfortible in my ml wager yet. Game will get tight book it


Hopkins is 4 times the player than clowney

SPAL

I'm finished with the NFL. Just gonna be a 1 unit loss, but I'm not even close.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: billyjoeozark on September 26, 2013, 08:14:32 pm
No va tech has an elite defense and plays well on road and openers in confrence. Also have a vet qb.

It ain't over yet I don't feel comfortible in my ml wager yet. Game will get tight book it

GT will have to score three TD's and shut out Va Tech the rest of the way for this to come out good for me and I kinda doubt that is going to happen in 2 quarters, but stranger things have happened.
Go Hogs Go!

BJOhog

If Venus can find it in her man like heart to lose for me in 5 hours it will be the best week ivevhad this year

BoynamedWooPigSooie

totally off on that GT/VT pick, should always go with the gut.  I was on the money with Iowa St. though, so 1-0 out the gate.  Maybe I'll come away with some gas money.
Hogville's resident uniform designer.

 

BJOhog

Quote from: BoynamedWooPigSooie on September 26, 2013, 10:17:37 pm
totally off on that GT/VT pick, should always go with the gut.  I was on the money with Iowa St. though, so 1-0 out the gate.  Maybe I'll come away with some gas money.

if you really put money on ole iowa state big brass balls and hats of to you
tulsa is by far the beter team

SPAL

2-0 Thursday.....

Yes, you read right. Thursday night monkey off my back, time to roll.

checkraiser88

Am I totally out of my mind going for a Moneyline pick of Cal over Oregon at 20 to 1??  ;D

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: checkraiser88 on September 26, 2013, 11:25:12 pm
Am I totally out of my mind going for a Moneyline pick of Cal over Oregon at 20 to 1??  ;D

yep

BJOhog

Quote from: checkraiser88 on September 26, 2013, 11:25:12 pm
Am I totally out of my mind going for a Moneyline pick of Cal over Oregon at 20 to 1??  ;D

unless its a 10 dollar one yeah maybe my friend im a big cal fan and supporter but ill be dang gon if oregon really is the best team in the country right now


good ml to win its like 5000 right?  its worth a small bet just realize that oregon really is for real. for what its worth i like cal a whole lot to i thiught they would beat ohiostate

widespreadsooie

If you took GT, I'm going to assume you didn't read the article I posted about VT's D Cord.

SPAL

Quote from: checkraiser88 on September 26, 2013, 11:25:12 pm
Am I totally out of my mind going for a Moneyline pick of Cal over Oregon at 20 to 1??  ;D

Even if you only bet 1 dollar, you are out of your mind.

SPAL

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 26, 2013, 11:31:11 pm
If you took GT, I'm going to assume you didn't read the article I posted about VT's D Cord.

I guess I missed it but I was on va tech. What was the article?

BJOhog

if you are looking for upset huge ml bets
these have the best chance in my ole opinion
East Carolina +370* vs North Carolina
SMU +700* vs TCU
Mississippi +450* vs Alabama
Washington State +290* vs Stanford
West Virginia +650* vs Oklahoma State

i put a dollar on each jus so i could copy and paste it for you i didnt look at lower tier yet sometimes those are the best moneylines actually many times they are
i dont like really any of these i posted. i dont like oregon losing at all tho i love cal

the best money line other than tonights v tech I'mo is is wisky. i think they destroy ohiostate and i bet like they will to



i jsut looked at lower tier maybe stoneybrroook. georgetown, and grambling. but i dont like those three either


widespreadsooie

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 26, 2013, 11:45:21 am
NIU isn't as reliable as they used to be with Doreen at NC St. now. He had NIU playing consistent, dominant football last season.

Regarding GT/VT, this article may lead you to take the points and/or the under, reinforced my under lean:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/virginia-tech-vs-georgia-tech-bud-foster-hokies-have-been-able-to-crack-the-yellow-jackets-riddle/2013/09/25/df78b9a4-261b-11e3-b75d-5b7f66349852_story.html

VT's D coordinator owns GT

BJOhog

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 26, 2013, 11:45:49 pm
VT's D coordinator owns GT
lot of factors. vt owns opening day conference games especially on the road. vt has the best defensive player in the nation. vt has the best dline in the nation. vt has a vet qb that isnt great but he is friggin steady. vt has an incredible coach that is one of the true best in the nation. they are a good club. great d lines destroy the veer

 

jkstock04

Quote from: billyjoeozark on September 26, 2013, 11:37:40 pm
if you are looking for upset huge ml bets
these have the best chance in my ole opinion
East Carolina +370* vs North Carolina
SMU +700* vs TCU
Mississippi +450* vs Alabama
Washington State +290* vs Stanford
West Virginia +650* vs Oklahoma State

i put a dollar on each jus so i could copy and paste it for you i didnt look at lower tier yet sometimes those are the best moneylines actually many times they are
i dont like really any of these i posted. i dont like oregon losing at all tho i love cal

the best money line other than tonights v tech I'mo is is wisky. i think they destroy ohiostate and i bet like they will to



i jsut looked at lower tier maybe stoneybrroook. georgetown, and grambling. but i dont like those three either


Call me crazy but I like the ole miss bet.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

BJOhog

Quote from: jkstock04 on September 26, 2013, 11:51:10 pm
Call me crazy but I like the ole miss bet.

its worth a 1 spot if you can eat the los and still buy your kids shoes. i like it a little. ole mis has moxy and believe they can win their players been talking trash all week on tweeter.
they took bammer to the ropes last year.

if you are gonna burn money on a ml id do this one and east caroline. i like georgetown just a little to




also wisky aint a true huge underdog but I'm close to betting the farm on those boys and tripling up my bet i like them.

all this being said i think its a better bet to take points this week. even in the wisky game but im a lil crazy



DadVader1

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 26, 2013, 11:31:11 pm
If you took GT, I'm going to assume you didn't read the article I posted about VT's D Cord.

Unfortunately, I jumped the gun and made the play before you posted it.  It's a learning process.  Next week, the plan is to post strong leans and let you guys poke holes in them before making my plays.  Patience is a virtue ... darn it. 

BJOhog

Quote from: DadVader1 on September 27, 2013, 12:18:13 am
Unfortunately, I jumped the gun and made the play before you posted it.  It's a learning process.  Next week, the plan is to post strong leans and let you guys poke holes in them before making my plays.  Patience is a virtue ... darn it.
i feel bad i shouldhave posted a long explaination. we all should -a lot of times jef or will or sirpigsalotch will post picks i scratch my head at and they dont explain and they are right as rain. i knew without a doubt va tech would win i just never took the time to type out why.

thats why im warning you boys now. dont take lsu unless you have done a lot more research than me and have an angle. you boys got an angle on that ole game please share it cause i dont other than i feel bad about that game. also id like to hear about this ball state more. i follow them a little. but i want to go big on toledo but the great betters on this thread like ball state. id like to know why before i make a mistake

DadVader1

On Toledo/Ball St., I haven't seen either team play, so this is strictly a spreadsheet play for me.  Toledo has the better rushing O, but Ball St. has the better passing O, the better total O, a much better scoring O, a much better 3rd down efficiency, a better red zone efficiency, and is playing at home.  Ball St. falls within a few larger trends hitting at 70+%, falls within several smaller trends hitting at around 80%, and falls within one subset trend that has hit 7 out of 7.  The trends seem to agree with the stats, so I took Ball St. at -1.5.  I didn't do much extra research on it, so this could turn out to be another Georgia Tech play.

SPAL

Quote from: DadVader1 on September 27, 2013, 12:53:14 am
On Toledo/Ball St., I haven't seen either team play, so this is strictly a spreadsheet play for me.  Toledo has the better rushing O, but Ball St. has the better passing O, the better total O, a much better scoring O, a much better 3rd down efficiency, a better red zone efficiency, and is playing at home.  Ball St. falls within a few larger trends hitting at 70+%, falls within several smaller trends hitting at around 80%, and falls within one subset trend that has hit 7 out of 7.  The trends seem to agree with the stats, so I took Ball St. at -1.5.  I didn't do much extra research on it, so this could turn out to be another Georgia Tech play.

Toledo has played Florida and Missouri while BSU has played north texas. Yo r numbers are gonna be skewed because of that. Toledo should be the favorite in this game. Terrance Owens looks to bounc back from a disappointing game against CMU. He is comig off of a knee injury but played last week and it's believed he is close to 100% again.

This is a revenge game for toledo. Ball state won at Toledo a year ago snapping a moderate win streak for Toledo.

For such a young defense that lost most of their starters, I think the Toledo defense having to step up in Owens' abscence 2 weeks ago and again last week, I like them to step up again here. BSU only getting 3 says slot.

Toledo by 10 (moderate lean )

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: billyjoeozark on September 26, 2013, 11:55:06 pm
its worth a 1 spot if you can eat the los and still buy your kids shoes. i like it a little. ole mis has moxy and believe they can win their players been talking trash all week on tweeter.
they took bammer to the ropes last year.

if you are gonna burn money on a ml id do this one and east caroline. i like georgetown just a little to




also wisky aint a true huge underdog but I'm close to betting the farm on those boys and tripling up my bet i like them.

all this being said i think its a better bet to take points this week. even in the wisky game but im a lil crazy






I gotta say BJO I am probably going opposite in Ohio St / Wisky game.  Probably gonna put at least 5 units on the Buckeyes.  Thus far it's one I my three strongest plays of the day.
Let's make some waves.

jkstock04

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 27, 2013, 05:55:06 am


I gotta say BJO I am probably going opposite in Ohio St / Wisky game.  Probably gonna put at least 5 units on the Buckeyes.  Thus far it's one I my three strongest plays of the day.
I have heard some people on radio and tv saying Buckeyes are prime for an upset in this one...but I'm not seeing it either, I think they roll Wisconsin.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

DadVader1

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 27, 2013, 01:32:30 am
Toledo has played Florida and Missouri while BSU has played north texas. Yo r numbers are gonna be skewed because of that. Toledo should be the favorite in this game.

Toledo by 10 (moderate lean )

Thanks for the analysis!  I figured it would take a while to get the cupcake effect out of the numbers, but since I didn't start the spreadsheet until mid-season last year, this is the first time I've had to deal with that aspect of it.

BJOhog

That scares me some Jeff. I got notre dame and whisky as ny money makers this weekend. I don't see osu even slowing down the run an I don't see the moving the ball as easy. I'll relook at her though

1960'sHogFan

Skip the LSU GA game, even if I think LSU wins

Take Ohio St., based on having a more seasoned Coach

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: billyjoeozark on September 27, 2013, 11:51:27 am
That scares me some Jeff. I got notre dame and whisky as ny money makers this weekend. I don't see osu even slowing down the run an I don't see the moving the ball as easy. I'll relook at uher though

Not touching the OU / Notre Dame as of now.  Sooners have issues at QB, but Golson out for the Irish.  Can't call this one myself.
Let's make some waves.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 27, 2013, 12:57:21 pm
Not touching the OU / Notre Dame as of now.  Sooners have issues at QB, but Golson out for the Irish.  Can't call this one myself.


Golson has been out all season though, so this line is properly adjusted for it I'm sure.

SPAL

Passing tonight on ncaaf. Have a baseball total going.

If I played tonight, it would be small on SJSU +10

SPAL

Somebody read my toledo assessment and hammered the line down to BSU -1. It was -3.5 when I posted last night.

Kidding about my assessment being why, obviously.

Hawgndaaz

A&M now at -17.5 on my board. already wishing i'd bet it at 14.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 27, 2013, 01:33:41 pm

Golson has been out all season though, so this line is properly adjusted for it I'm sure.


Oh I'm sure it has as well. Was thinking there was a possibility of his return.  I don't like this one either wAy.
Let's make some waves.

WILL CLINTON

September 27, 2013, 03:16:37 pm #4742 Last Edit: September 27, 2013, 03:59:21 pm by WILL CLINTON
Nothing like starting your week off with a 1* loss. Damn you GA Tech.

And, no I didn't see the article that was posted, it would have definitely changed my mind.

Adding:

Oregon -34  2*
Duke -11 2*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

BoynamedWooPigSooie

I like OU to win handedly.  I took em to cover and put them in a parlay play.

I hate both teams and wish they both could lose.  Both of them are terribly over-rated and incomplete and led by dbag coaches and have dbag fans.  This is the kind of game where you just want to drop a missile on the stadium and know a good deed was done.

however, I think Oklahoma gets it done on the road.
Hogville's resident uniform designer.

McKdaddy

Since CBB's tweet, the UA/A&M game has disappeared from both of my books.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: BoynamedWooPigSooie on September 27, 2013, 03:19:54 pm
I like OU to win handedly.  I took em to cover and put them in a parlay play.

I hate both teams and wish they both could lose.  Both of them are terribly over-rated and incomplete and led by dbag coaches and have dbag fans.  This is the kind of game where you just want to drop a missile on the stadium and know a good deed was done.

however, I think Oklahoma gets it done on the road.

I think Oklahoma wins by 7 to 8 points.
Go Hogs Go!

BJOhog

September 27, 2013, 06:39:58 pm #4746 Last Edit: September 27, 2013, 07:32:03 pm by billyjoeozark
Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on September 27, 2013, 06:32:43 pm
I think Oklahoma wins by 7 to 8 points.

i looked at her all day today and i still like notre dame and wisky

thnks for all the info on the toledo game fellas

adding one today for 2 units
9/28/13 12:00am  WTA Tennis  301 Petra Kvitova +110* vs Angelique Kerber

this japanise tournament has been good to me see if i can pick one last one

i jus put my money were my mouth is
i took a small 50 half a unit bet on georgia giving 3 and a half. i cant believe im giving points to what should be a pickem. i got it reduced at -105. what the heck.
i cant even tell you why i talked myself into beliveing in georgia. i think that maybe south carolina and clemson are really that good while a pretty crappy tcu team gave lsu a little mustard in that fight. so here it is. half unit on georgia

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: McKdaddy on September 27, 2013, 06:26:58 pm
Since CBB's tweet, the UA/A&M game has disappeared from both of my books.

Vegasinsiders is unchanged in point spread at multiple sportsbooks but does now list Brandon Allen and Derby as both being "probable".
Go Hogs Go!

BoynamedWooPigSooie

Quote from: billyjoeozark on September 27, 2013, 06:39:58 pm
adding one today for 2 units
9/28/13 12:00am  WTA Tennis  301 Petra Kvitova +110* vs Angelique Kerber

this japanise tournament has been good to me see if i can pick one last one


Now that's some damn degenerate gambler action right there!!!  I bow to you good sir.
Hogville's resident uniform designer.

SPAL

September 27, 2013, 07:56:43 pm #4749 Last Edit: September 28, 2013, 12:05:02 am by sir-pigs-a-lot
I decided to play tonight...

BYU -23           W
SJSU +10.5.     L

Both for 1 unit

1 unit parlay: W
mtsu/BYU u58.5
SJSU/Utah st u62.5