Do we make the tournament?

[LRrazorback]

With 2 losses and a potential of losing 5-6 on the road in conf. and if we lose 1 at home, thats 9 losses for the season with one more loss in the conf. tourney, if we go 1-1.  In this conf., I don't think 23-10 team goes to the NCAA tourney.

What does that mean for Coach A?  He'll probably lose his best player after this year and possibly second best as well.  Next year could be worse than this one.  I say if you can't get it done after 4 years it's time to cut bait and move on.  What do you think?

[Atlhogfan1]

I'm still going with yes for now but the Hogs cannot lose more than one or two before the end of January as the schedule turns.  They need to be close to 20 before those last 7 games.  And finally winning an SECT game will help along with the non conf opponents doing well. 

I think discussing your second paragraph is pointless right now. 

[#fastest40]

For some reason I believe we run the table at home and we will learn to take that on the road and win some games. I would be very surprised if we don't end up with around 23-25 wins with this team and this weak SEC schedule.

[MikePiazza]

I honestly think this team will be 23-8 or 24-7 when the dust settles on March 7.

They absolutely need to win at least one, if not two, games in Nashville to lock down an at-large bid.

If they are playing on Saturday at the SEC Tournament, I think they're in.

[-Blu]

We do.  Here's why....

First, and probably biggest reason.  Our conference RPI.  Last year we finished 7th in conference RPI, so even with a decent 10-8 conference performance that wasn't enough.  This year our conference is currently ranked 4th.  There have been a couple of "bad losses" by the conference but overall conference has improved.  And I admit, I jumped the gun at the beginning of the season on our conference, but we've picked up decent wins.  10 of our 14 teams are in the RPI top 100, and the remaining 4 are all inside the top 200.

Here's a site you can use for reference http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/SEC.html

Next reason, our overall SOS is much improved.  Our current SOS is 38.  I can't remember where it was last year, but it was much much higher than that.  Also, our conference schedule is setup a lot better for us.  It's really no threat after Dayton for us at home, except maybe A&M and LSU.  Then we have Tennessee, Mizzou, Miss State, South Carolina, Auburn, and Ole Miss on the road.  SMU is much better than all those teams and we beat them on the road, and Clemson is the equivalent to most of those teams, and we SHOULD HAVE beat them.  If we take care of business at home, and then just win a minimum of 3 of those very winnable road games, we'll be 12-6 in conference, 11-2, out of conference with a record of 23-8 going into the SEC tournament.  With this year's SOS, that will be more than enough to get us in.  Probably a 9-10 seed.

[popcornhog]

I predict that we will make the tourney by going undefeated at home and around .500 on the road.

Much better OOC schedule than last year is a help. Solid wins in OOC already, one on the road. The ISU loss doesn't hurt. The Clemson loss is bad but doesn't keep us out of the tourney.

[jry04]

I honestly think this team will be 23-8 or 24-7 when the dust settles on March 7.

They absolutely need to win at least one, if not two, games in Nashville to lock down an at-large bid.

If they are playing on Saturday at the SEC Tournament, I think they're in.

23-8 puts us in the NCAAT. Go back and look at the last few years of selections if you do not believe me...a major conference team with less than 10 losses and a top 40 rpi will make the ncaat every time.

[jry04]

We do.  Here's why....

First, and probably biggest reason.  Our conference RPI.  Last year we finished 7th in conference RPI, so even with a decent 10-8 conference performance that wasn't enough.  This year our conference is currently ranked 4th.  There have been a couple of "bad losses" by the conference but overall conference has improved.  And I admit, I jumped the gun at the beginning of the season on our conference, but we've picked up decent wins.  10 of our 14 teams are in the RPI top 100, and the remaining 4 are all inside the top 200.

Here's a site you can use for reference http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/SEC.html

Next reason, our overall SOS is much improved.  Our current SOS is 38.  I can't remember where it was last year, but it was much much higher than that.  Also, our conference schedule is setup a lot better for us.  It's really no threat after Dayton for us at home, except maybe A&M and LSU.  Then we have Tennessee, Mizzou, Miss State, South Carolina, Auburn, and Ole Miss on the road.  SMU is much better than all those teams and we beat them on the road, and Clemson is the equivalent to most of those teams, and we SHOULD HAVE beat them.  If we take care of business at home, and then just win a minimum of 3 of those very winnable road games, we'll be 12-6 in conference, 11-2, out of conference with a record of 23-8 going into the SEC tournament.  With this year's SOS, that will be more than enough to get us in.  Probably a 9-10 seed.

That site is usually very accurate with predictions of rpi. I have used it the last few years, and it does a good job. That is why I fail to understand why so many people say we have to do damage in the sect if we have 7 or more losses. According to that site, 24-7 would give us a rpi good enough to be a 5 or 6 seed, and a top 100 SOS.


I urge people to look at OU from 2 years ago. They finished 20-11(11-8), and had just 2 top 50 rpi wins. They had lost to us, and we had a rpi of 100. They lost to Texas, who finished .500 with a rpi of 120, and TCU with a rpi of 238. They still made the ncaat comfortably because of their rpi. They did not have many good wins, but they scheduled a bunch of mediocre to bad teams in non-conference to beat the rpi and sos.


They lost to Arkansas, Gonzaga, and SFA in non-conference, and finishes with 0 top 50 OOC wins. Obviously their conference is better, but the resumes could end up being similar.

[cbhawg03]

Put my down for undefeated at home. I think that is the easy part.

Now for the road games. I have heard that people are whiners and everything else after the Clemson loss, but it wasn't that it was the loss that was so bad, but it was how they loss. Looked like the past couple of years when we couldn't win on the road. Changing our complete gameplan just because we are on the road.

I have also seen on here that the SEC isn't that bad. No the SEC isn't that bad, its terrible. Have you seen the amount of losses and who has beat SEC teams? That means there is no room for error on the road. We have to beat the bad teams and only lose to the teams that we should really lose to, for instance KY and FLA.

I think we miss the NCAA tournament. I say we finish 23-9, which is 1 and done in the SEC Tournament. Just because you have single digit losses doesn't mean that you will get into the tournament, especially when I don't see us having a win over a ranked opponent all year.

[Piggage]

I say no until proven otherwise. We already have one loss that will be seen by everyone as a bad loss in March. If we can avoid two other bad losses we get EVERY year (the 1st SEC road game and the 1st SEC tourney game), any other bad losses we get probably won't keep us from the tourney.

[pigture perfect]

We better pray for Clemson to have a great year. I think we sneak in. 10-12 seed. We need some tough players on this team. We need a Derrick Hood type.

[Biggus Piggus]

What does that mean for Coach A?  He'll probably lose his best player after this year and possibly second best as well.  Next year could be worse than this one.  I say if you can't get it done after 4 years it's time to cut bait and move on.  What do you think?

No, four years would be ridiculously impatient. We only gave John Pelphrey four years. He had a huge back-of-the-house mess to clean up after Stan Heath. After we fired Pelphrey for Mike Anderson, we lost three players early and had a new coach to deal with a big recruiting class of kids who didn't fit his style. Pelphrey really might have had a better team in his fifth season than MA had in his first three at Arkansas. But nobody wants to hear that. Pel iz da debbil!

We can't go through that again. Unless we can hire a great coach. Then we can.

[rude1]

He's coming back for year 5, bank it. There's a lot of things going right with the basketball program that us fans don't care as much about since it doesn't involve winning.

[Deep Shoat]

Probably.

But it'll just be SSDD once we get there.

Guards aren't good enough to make any noise in the Dance.

[Biggus Piggus]

We better pray for Clemson to have a great year. I think we sneak in. 10-12 seed. We need some tough players on this team. We need a Derrick Hood type.

Clemson will be lucky to reach .500 overall. It would be a miracle if they went .500 in the ACC.

[jry04]

We better pray for Clemson to have a great year. I think we sneak in. 10-12 seed. We need some tough players on this team. We need a Derrick Hood type.

We do not have to pray for that. Every team outside of the top 4 or 5 seed teams have bad losses. Take care of all our home games and win 3or 4 on the road and we are a lock.

[jry04]

Clemson will be lucky to reach .500 overall. It would be a miracle if they went .500 in the ACC.

Yeah, they are not touching.500 in ACC play. The league is stacked. They will be a bottom 4 team.

[poloprince]

Without question with a 23-8 record headed into the SEc tourney.

[holman24]

no we won't make the tourn.  We have to many problems but our biggest is road victories.  the program hasn't had a road winning season in how long???  Until MA can make his guys nasty and man up at crunch time we will once again be saying wait till next year.

[porkinsons disease]

I say yes, but do not think that since we beat SMU on the road that we can assume we will beat the SEC cellar dwellers on the road. Every game is different and the margin for error is getting smaller.

[Iwastherein1969]

I've been as critical as anyone, but come on, this team has a long season to play and a lot of wins that will take place....sure losing to Clemson was a bad loss, but it was on the road...what bothered me most about the Clemson game was not the actual loss, but how we lost it...our guys just gave it away the last 3 minutes of regular time...those are the three minutes that good Razorback teams of the past would take a 7 point lead and turn it into a 15 point lead and you look up and there's 52 seconds left on the clock....game over...instead this team fumbled, bumbled, fouled and generally just screwed the pooch at closing time against an inferior team....that's what concerns me, is this team's ability to close...SMU made a late run but was too far behind, Clemson made a late run and would have beaten us by 15 or 20 had the game gone on another 10 minutes....the Hogs are still looking for the Lee Mayberry or Corey Beck type guard who can put the "hammer time" down at the end of the game....as Simon and Garfunkel once sang, "where have you gone Ron Brewer, SR, razorback nation turns it's lonely eyes to you......"  Malik, is that your voice I hear in the background saying something to the effect, you'll be here soon ?

[rude1]

I think we slip in as a bubble team. My reasoning is because I do think we are some what better than a year ago when we were on the door step before fading at the end. I think this team will make a mini run at the end instead of folding like last year, that gets them in. If in I certainly don't expect much more than that.

[poloprince]

no we won't make the tourn.  We have to many problems but our biggest is road victories.  the program hasn't had a road winning season in how long???  Until MA can make his guys nasty and man up at crunch time we will once again be saying wait till next year.

The last road winning season was when there was a HOF coaching running the sidelines I'm pretty sure.

[ErieHog]

We're probably a tournament team this year.  To me, the magic number is 9;  if we're north of 9 losses, we're not in;  if we're at 9 or less, we're in, come Selection Sunday.

[-Blu]

We better pray for Clemson to have a great year. I think we sneak in. 10-12 seed. We need some tough players on this team. We need a Derrick Hood type.

The thing about the Clemson lost, is that it's not as bad as some people are making it out to be, especially with the game being on the road. Their current RPI is 188, rpiforecast projects them to have an RPI of 163 by the end of the season.  Like jry04 has said these type of losses are very common teams that outside the top 5 seeds.  Heck you may see a team in the top 5, that has a really good record, but blew it on the road to a team with a similar RPI to Clemson.

Clemson was a nice opportunity for us, but it's not the end of the world or our tournament hopes.  Plenty of time to bounce back and have a special season.

[-Blu]

We're probably a tournament team this year.  To me, the magic number is 9;  if we're north of 9 losses, we're not in;  if we're at 9 or less, we're in, come Selection Sunday.

I would agree with this.  With our SOS this year, an 11-2 OOC and 11-7 conference play should be enough.  Although I think with our conference schedule we should expect at least 12 wins, and that's being reasonable.  There's only 1 road game I would say we don't have a legit shot at, which is Kentucky, but the way our guys get fired up to play them, you never know.

[Kevin]

I just don't know.  Winning on the road is real questionable

Just don't trust this team, right now, to win enough on the road

[-Blu]

Question for you guys that's been watching SEC B-Ball. Who from the SEC makes the tournament this year?

Despite the Clemson lost, being completely unbiased, Arkansas is currently the second best team in the conference, and I think most outside that watch college ball will agree.

Just from what I've seen.  I think 5 teams make it this year.... no I'm not crazy, I'm looking at our current conference RPI, some of the wins teams have picked up, and I'm looking at other leagues that usually send 5-6 teams that are really really struggling (A-10).

Tourney Bound
Kentucky
Arkansas
Alabama
LSU
Ole Miss

NIT
TAM
Florida
South Carolina
Georgia

I also can see TAM competing for a spot, they should finish out their non-conference 10-3 or 11-2.  LSU and Ole Miss had some early season losses, but have really been on a roll lately with some impressive wins, especially Ole Miss.

[Kevin]

Question for you guys that's been watching SEC B-Ball. Who from the SEC makes the tournament this year?

Despite the Clemson lost, being completely unbiased, Arkansas is currently the second best team in the conference, and I think most outside that watch college ball will agree.

Just from what I've seen.  I think 5 teams make it this year.... no I'm not crazy, I'm looking at our current conference RPI, some of the wins teams have picked up, and I'm looking at other leagues that usually send 5-6 teams that are really really struggling (A-10).

Tourney Bound
Kentucky
Arkansas
Alabama
LSU
Ole Miss

NIT
TAM
Florida
South Carolina
Georgia

I also can see TAM competing for a spot, they should finish out their non-conference 10-3 or 11-2.  LSU and Ole Miss had some early season losses, but have really been on a roll lately with some impressive wins, especially Ole Miss.

Good question.  Think it depends if a couple of teams can get through the league with 12 or more wins ( besides uk). If the league beats itself up, maybe just 3 teams get in

[masshog2412]

I think we still make the tournament. If we can win out at home and go 4-5 on the road in conference.  If we do drop one at home then we're going to have to make that up on the road somewhere with an ole miss or Tennessee most likely however ole miss is a strong team with good guards.  Imo this dayton game Saturday is huge as that might be toughest team left on our home schedule and a big win would def be more beneficial just in case we do drop one at home to lsu or something.  Either way I feel like we get it going in the right direction.  Madden might not be the best option to have handling end of game decisions but he know Clemson was on him.  Never underestimate the desperation of a senior as the season gets near the end and I fully expect him to bounce back as the season progresses.  He has Def tried to take on the leadership role and u gotta love the assists hes been racking up, hopefully he settles more into a distributor role as season progresses bc thats when this teams at best

[Adam Stokes]

Last season we needed 23 wins to make the tournament.  This year we probably only need 22 due to an the increase in the strength of our non-conference SOS.  Assuming win out before conference we would only need to go 11-7 in conference.  22-9 would give us a Top 40 RPI and would likely be in.  23 wins would be cake.

[ErieHog]

I see the SEC as a 4 bid league today.   If things finish well in the preseason, with a few key wins in the remaining OOC schedule, it might be 5.

[Breems]

And finally winning an SECT game will help along with the non conf opponents doing well. 

This may be the year we finally do that. I still think we're a notch above the middle of the pack which should give us a more than favorable seed. Winning a couple in the tournament would seal the deal if our regular season provides probable cause.

Then again, our uncanny ability to fall apart at the feet of the South Carolinas of the world will probably stick around for another season.

[hogsanity]

Without question with a 23-8 record headed into the SEc tourney.

So that means winning the last 5 ooc games, and then going 12-6 in the sec. Assuming 9-0 at home, still means they have to win 3 sec road games.

[jry04]

So that means winning the last 5 ooc games, and then going 12-6 in the sec. Assuming 9-0 at home, still means they have to win 3 sec road games.

We did it last year with a worse team.


People forget we outplayed SMU practically the entire game, who is much better than Clemson, and a better environment than everyone in the SEC outside of UF and UK.

[hogsanity]

We did it last year with a worse team.


People forget we outplayed SMU practically the entire game, who is much better than Clemson, and a better environment than everyone in the SEC outside of UF and UK.

? ? ?  Hogs went 10-8 in the SEC last, and lost at home to Fla and Mizzou.  So they did not go 9-0 at home, and went 3-7 on the road. And last years team is pretty much this years team.

[Dominicanhog]

We did it last year with a worse team.


People forget we outplayed SMU practically the entire game, who is much better than Clemson, and a better environment than everyone in the SEC outside of UF and UK.

Not sure we are a better team this year, so far... Clark was a big part of that team and we've yet to fill that role... his offense, defense and especially his rebounding...

[ErieHog]

Not sure we are a better team this year, so far... Clark was a big part of that team and we've yet to fill that role... his offense, defense and especially his rebounding...

Er.  We're actually rebounding better this year than we have at any time in the Anderson era, and best overall in 6 years.

[Champs04]

Once  again SMU stinks!

[Dominicanhog]

Er.  We're actually rebounding better this year than we have at any time in the Anderson era, and best overall in 6 years.

those stat's are not reflective of the last 2 games where we actually faced decent inside competition... let's see how the year unfolds.. we got hammered on the boards in our losses and imo, I don't see the rebounder on this team.   

[MikePiazza]

Once  again SMU stinks!

Jury still out on that. Let's see how they do in AAC play.

[WarPig88]

those stat's are not reflective of the last 2 games where we actually faced decent inside competition... let's see how the year unfolds.. we got hammered on the boards in our losses and imo, I don't see the rebounder on this team.

We out rebounded Iowa St and got 12 offensive rebounds against Clemson.

[HF#1]

We have 9 road games left.  We are already 1-2 on the road.  Can we win 6 of those 9?  Realistically?

[Dominicanhog]

We out rebounded Iowa St and got 12 offensive rebounds against Clemson.

your right about ISU, they were up by 6 rebounds at the half and we out rebounded them by 9 in 2nd half when the game was over ... we were out rebounded by 9 against Clemson and they had 15 offensive rebounds...

[MikePiazza]

We have 9 road games left.  We are already 1-2 on the road.  Can we win 6 of those 9?  Realistically?

Any road game but Florida and Kentucky seems winnable, and Florida might be as well. Whether the team actually wins, is another thing entirely. I think they'll win at Auburn, Mizzou and Mississippi State for sure. Can they win at Georgia and Tennessee? At S. Carolina? At Ole Miss? Those will be the question marks.

[HF#1]

Any road game but Florida and Kentucky seems winnable, and Florida might be as well. Whether the team actually wins, is another thing entirely. I think they'll win at Auburn, Mizzou and Mississippi State for sure. Can they win at Georgia and Tennessee? At S. Carolina? At Ole Miss? Those will be the question marks.

Tenner should be a victory imo.  Georgia will be a tough game.  Florida will be tough by then. We seem to have a hard time winning at South Carolina.   I just worry about winning enough on the road and still making the tournament.  It's paramount we have a respectable road record this year or we will get passed up.

[WMHawgfan]

Have to hope SMU gets it together and makes a run. That is our only quality win right now. We have to beat Dayton and go at least 11-7 in conf. with a quality win at home and one on the road with no terrible losses.

Can't just say we go 11-7 or 12-6 and we are in. There has to be some RPI top 50 wins in the end and hopefully an RPI top 5 win. I think that would get us there.

[cosmodrum]

If we aren't REALLY good on the road in an awful SEC, then I don't think we make it in. That was BEFORE Clemsongate.

[ErieHog]

We have 9 road games left.  We are already 1-2 on the road.  Can we win 6 of those 9?  Realistically?

Pretty reasonably, yeah.   We've got a more manageable road schedule than we've had in years.

Our key dates will be @ Georgia early, and @ South Carolina late.

[jry04]

? ? ?  Hogs went 10-8 in the SEC last, and lost at home to Fla and Mizzou.  So they did not go 9-0 at home, and went 3-7 on the road. And last years team is pretty much this years team.

Sorry you did not follow...we won 3 games in conference on the road last year. This team is much better than last year's despite the recent loss. We would be 5-3 right now with last year's team, but carry on.