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  • #4401 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Sep 2013
  • I'm confident that if I woulda played ncsu, Clemson woulda won 45-6.
  • #4402 by The Hogfather on 19 Sep 2013
  • Luckily, I had the under, KC and the under in that game. 
  • #4403 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Sep 2013
  • was it also shady they didn't go for 2 after the TD?

    Don't think so. Would have cut lead to only 11, but I guess if you are thinking onside, field goal, onside TD two point conversion maybe.
  • #4404 by The Hogfather on 19 Sep 2013
  • I'm confident that if I woulda played ncsu, Clemson woulda won 45-6.

    No doubt.
  • #4405 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Sep 2013
  • My 3 games I followed you guys in this year.... OK State, Ball State, and this dog turd. You're killing me.  My bankroll would've busted last weekend had I not got lucky on a 4 team parlay to push me back to 1400.  Which I lost 400 of on this worthless POS.

    I was on the other side of the ok st game and had no play on ball st.
  • #4406 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Sep 2013
  • My nfl pick is gonna lose also.

    You guys wanna make a ton of money, just fade every one of my Thursday plays.

    Luckily have the under in NFL, but doesn't quite cover half what I lost on Clemson.
  • #4407 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Sep 2013
  • I'm confident that if I woulda played ncsu, Clemson woulda won 45-6.

    For sure.
  • #4408 by McHogLovin on 19 Sep 2013
  • I was on the other side of the ok st game and had no play on ball st.

    U bet Texas-San Antonio?
  • #4409 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Sep 2013
  • My 3 games I followed you guys in this year.... OK State, Ball State, and this dog turd. You're killing me.  My bankroll would've busted last weekend had I not got lucky on a 4 team parlay to push me back to 1400.  Which I lost 400 of on this worthless POS.


    Don't know what to tell ya my man. You can always bet either side of each game.

    Can assure you I'm not happy losing that dime. Was a bet I would hve made 100 times out of 100 though. I was that confident.
  • #4410 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Sep 2013
  • U bet Texas-San Antonio?

    I do believe he was.
  • #4411 by McHogLovin on 19 Sep 2013

  • Don't know what to tell ya my man. You can always bet either side of each game.

    Can assure you I'm not happy losing that dime. Was a bet I would hve made 100 times out of 100 though. I was that confident.

    We are all Hogs and if we are all on the same side of the same game well then....get ready for what being a Hog fan gets ya.....heartache.
  • #4412 by Huckleberry Pig on 19 Sep 2013
  • was odd to hear the commentator mention that "lots of people hoping clemson scores some more points here"  never heard that before in a game.  That and them not stopping anything on 4th down along with not kicking the field goal sure do have me scratchin my head.

    Hate to be a tinfoil so i'm just gonna assume i was on the wrong side and should have gone with my gut which was "line is too fishy and is not moving, something is up"... but my goodness this sure does make ya think.
  • #4413 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Sep 2013
  • Lmfao and now a scoring spree in the NFL

    Maybe I should leave all Thursdays alone as well sir pigs!
  • #4414 by Hawgndaaz on 19 Sep 2013
  • a 22 play 4th quarter drive is unheard of when you're down 3 scores.

    damnit. i hate losing bets, but i really hate when i have the little voice in my head pop up screaming something is fishy.
  • #4415 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Sep 2013
  • We are all Hogs and if we are all on the same side of the same game well then....get ready for what being a Hog fan gets ya.....heartache.

    Lol ain't that the truth.
  • #4416 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Sep 2013
  • I'm not as confident in ok state as you guys are. They lost a lot of production on offense and there are big question marks regarding the QB play. If you have 2 QBs you have no quarterbacks.

    Let's not discount the fact that this is a road game. Ok st is 1-6 ATS in the last 7 road games. That tells me the offensive production suffers on the road. I'm not always a trends guy..but in this case, I think it's important.

    UTSA us a team that I think can move the ball and score some points. I like them to score 13 which means I'm asking an offense that hasn't found an identity nor a starting QB that struggles on the road offensively as if is to score 40.

    I think the cowboys win easily. But I'm not sold they win by 27 or more.
    U bet Texas-San Antonio?

    Right now, I've graded it 34-13.
  • #4417 by McHogLovin on 19 Sep 2013
  • #4418 by McKdaddy on 19 Sep 2013
  • Sorry to anyone that may have bet it following me. I swear. Should have been a cake walk cover.

    Sorry

    It happens.
  • #4419 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Sep 2013
  • I was off on the score, but nailed the analysis.
  • #4420 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Sep 2013
  • You never know. People have gotten to players and coaches before.
  • #4421 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Sep 2013
  • Getting interesting in Philly
  • #4422 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Sep 2013
  • Jeff, what was the total u played under?
  • #4423 by UAstudent13 on 19 Sep 2013
  • I mean 4 4th down conversions on one drive? Pretty big outlier in my mind. Clemson should've covered.
  • #4424 by McHogLovin on 19 Sep 2013
  • You never know. People have gotten to players and coaches before.

    Well not kicking the FG would point to the coaches but I just can't see it.  Why in the hell we didn't see the FG go up I do not know.  Would've loved to see that baby bang off the goalpost so we could've got one more kick in the nuts for our money.
  • #4425 by Hawgndaaz on 19 Sep 2013
  • i know i went larger than usual tonight and lost it.. gotta stay disciplined and not try to win it all back at once. gotta keep my patience and chip away at that loss!
  • #4426 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Sep 2013
  • I mean 4 4th down conversions on one drive? Pretty big outlier in my mind. Clemson should've covered.

    I wish I could count all the games that shoulda covered but didnt
  • #4427 by Huckleberry Pig on 19 Sep 2013
  • a 22 play 4th quarter drive is unheard of when you're down 3 scores.

    damnit. i hate losing bets, but i really hate when i have the little voice in my head pop up screaming something is fishy.

    no kiddin - they didn't even try to throw one deep for a quick score
  • #4428 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Sep 2013
  • Jeff, what was the total u played under?

    51
  • #4429 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Sep 2013
  • I wish I could count all the games that shoulda covered but didnt

    Yep and that was one of them.
  • #4430 by UAstudent13 on 19 Sep 2013
  • I wish I could count all the games that shoulda covered but didnt

    I mean I didn't bet on the game. I'm just saying in general. That stat is pretty crazy and honestly is an anomaly. Especially when they converted a couple long 4ths.
  • #4431 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Sep 2013
  • Realistically, they did the right thing by not kicking the FG. When that explicit fool got a personal foul, they were knocked out of FG RANGE and drive back into it, but it still woulda been a long attempt.

    They wanted to avoid a block and return. By just kneeling it , essentially, they force the NCSU offense to score instead of a scoop and score.

    That's not why I'm upset. 4 4th down conversions is what has me steamed.
  • #4432 by Huckleberry Pig on 19 Sep 2013
  • Realistically, they did the right thing by not kicking the FG. When that explicit fool got a personal foul, they were knocked out of FG RANGE and drive back into it, but it still woulda been a long attempt.

    They wanted to avoid a block and return. By just kneeling it , essentially, they force the NCSU offense to score instead of a scoop and score.

    That's not why I'm upset. 4 4th down conversions is what has me steamed.

    agreed
  • #4433 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Sep 2013
  • Time to regroup and focus on tomorrow....
  • #4434 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Sep 2013
  • False start: everybody but the center.

    Pretty much sums up my night.
  • #4435 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Sep 2013
  • Hell Philly will probably score a long meaningless TD to knock me out of the under!
  • #4436 by DadVader1 on 19 Sep 2013
  • Yeah, the friggin 2-point conversion and 4 4th-down conversions on that drive were pretty frustrating, but it happens.  With all of NC State's screw ups and miscues, the NC St. td's that were called back, including the questionable out of bounds call that resulted in a 14-point swing, I'm not as suspicious about foul play.  I've made a LOT more than I've lost tailing Jeff's dime plays, and I don't intend to stop doing that any time soon.  Thanks for sharing them with us!!!! 

    The season is young, and the spreadsheet is shaping up nicely and is one or two weeks away from having enough data for a strong run at the second half of the season.  With the experience and different angles you guys bring to the thread, I think we're in for a very good season.
  • #4437 by MuskogeeHogFan on 19 Sep 2013
  • was odd to hear the commentator mention that "lots of people hoping clemson scores some more points here"  never heard that before in a game.  That and them not stopping anything on 4th down along with not kicking the field goal sure do have me scratchin my head.

    Hate to be a tinfoil so i'm just gonna assume i was on the wrong side and should have gone with my gut which was "line is too fishy and is not moving, something is up"... but my goodness this sure does make ya think.

    Clemson was lucky that NC State handed them short fields in which to score. 17 of their points came from starting about their own 40, which is pretty primo field position, another between their own 45-50 and still another off an INT from NC State's own 48. Clemson did what good teams do and converted all of those opportunities to points, but no one knew that was going to happen going into this game. I had this game picked as a 30-21 Clemson win and obviously NC State underperformed, but I never could see Clemson covering the point spread. I am truly sorry that you guys lost money on this game. I'm sure you'll make up for it this weekend.
  • #4438 by ur on 20 Sep 2013
  • How do these guys acct for the nc state TD getting called back? Amazing.
    Moore had this game at 10.42 and Burdorf had it 11.6.
    http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/predncaa.html

    http://www.burdorfratings.com/collegepicks.html

    Those two had the top pred. ATS through 9/15
    http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php

    And thanks to who posted these links earlier. Great info.
  • #4439 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 20 Sep 2013
  • Clemson was lucky that NC State handed them short fields in which to score. 17 of their points came from starting about their own 40, which is pretty primo field position, another between their own 45-50 and still another off an INT from NC State's own 48. Clemson did what good teams do and converted all of those opportunities to points, but no one knew that was going to happen going into this game. I had this game picked as a 30-21 Clemson win and obviously NC State underperformed, but I never could see Clemson covering the point spread. I am truly sorry that you guys lost money on this game. I'm sure you'll make up for it this weekend.

    Eh the losing money part happen.  taj boyd missing wide open receivers for 6 points I didn't expet to see more than once.

    I also didn't expect NC St to convert 8700 forth downs on that final drive.  So although your breakdown makes sense now Clemson still should have easily covered that line. 
  • #4440 by Huckleberry Pig on 20 Sep 2013
  • Eh the losing money part happen.  taj boyd missing wide open receivers for 6 points I didn't expet to see more than once.

    I also didn't expect NC St to convert 8700 forth downs on that final drive.  So although your breakdown makes sense now Clemson still should have easily covered that line.

    hahah amen to that.  Alright, let's get it back this weekend
  • #4441 by MuskogeeHogFan on 20 Sep 2013
  • Eh the losing money part happen.  taj boyd missing wide open receivers for 6 points I didn't expet to see more than once.

    I also didn't expect NC St to convert 8700 forth downs on that final drive.  So although your breakdown makes sense now Clemson still should have easily covered that line. 

    OK, back to the weekend.

    Ariz State @ Stanford (-7) 50-1/2

    I think this is a good proposition for Arizona State. AZ State +7 and/or the Over? Your thoughts?
  • #4442 by Huckleberry Pig on 20 Sep 2013
  • OK, back to the weekend.

    Ariz State @ Stanford (-7) 50-1/2

    I think this is a good proposition for Arizona State. AZ State +7 and/or the Over? Your thoughts?

    ehhh after an emotional/hard fought win against Wisconsin and now on the road... tend to want to buy the hook and take Stanford
  • #4443 by MuskogeeHogFan on 20 Sep 2013
  • ehhh after an emotional/hard fought win against Wisconsin and now on the road... tend to want to buy the hook and take Stanford

    See, now I think the Arizona State staff is telling those players, "no one thought we deserved that win, let's go prove to them that we did this weekend". Yet another emotional motivation going into this game at Stanford. No emotional let down here because of "how" they won and all the chatter about how Wisconsin got screwed last weekend.
  • #4444 by DadVader1 on 20 Sep 2013
  • Burdorf and Moore are both hitting over 60% ATS and both pick AZ St to cover, but this game doesn't fall into some of the other trends that I like to see with higher %'s, and AZ St. and Stanford are both middle-of-the-pack when it comes to system predictability.  I would lean AZ St., but I would probably look for another game to play.
  • #4445 by ur on 20 Sep 2013
  • Burdorf and Moore are both hitting over 60% ATS and both pick AZ St to cover, but this game doesn't fall into some of the other trends that I like to see with higher %'s, and AZ St. and Stanford are both middle-of-the-pack when it comes to system predictability.  I would lean AZ St., but I would probably look for another game to play.
    Syracuse is a team they have winning big, by 29 and 24. I also like Baylor and Cinn.
  • #4446 by DadVader1 on 20 Sep 2013
  • Cincinnati's qb was injured in the Illinois loss.  The back-up put up good stats in the Northwestern State game last week, but I decided to sit out the Cincy game.
  • #4447 by Huckleberry Pig on 20 Sep 2013
  • Syracuse is a team they have winning big, by 29 and 24. I also like Baylor and Cinn.

    Baylor huh... I was leaning the other way there.  Baylor has literally played no one yet.  Their D is no OU D, think ULM will be able to score.  Think -30 is a little high
  • #4448 by widespreadsooie on 20 Sep 2013
  • Glad I had the under last night, my gut hasn't completely failed me yet. Clemson just didn't look right with no line movement.

    Remaining Plays:

    Utah St. +7 (-120)/ 3 units
    FL/TN u47.5/ 3 units
  • #4449 by Porked Tongue on 20 Sep 2013
  • One early play for Saturday and it's a dandy.

    Hogs/Rutgers over 44  8 units.

    For those wondering, I'm 2-3(on here) this year with all 1 unit plays.
  • #4450 by Huckleberry Pig on 20 Sep 2013
  • One early play for Saturday and it's a dandy.

    Hogs/Rutgers over 44  8 units.

    For those wondering, I'm 2-3(on here) this year with all 1 unit plays.

    what's your take on the under?
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