Please let me book your Materiality WPS bets for the KY Derby...

[HogFanInBryant]

Not impressed with any colts coming out of the Fla Derby...not at all!

[kingoftherapids]

They look like so gassed by the top of the stretch.  Painful to watch the last 2 furlongs

[HogFanInBryant]

They look like so gassed by the top of the stretch.  Painful to watch the last 2 furlongs

Agreed...it looked like the start allowance horses coming home in the 1.75 mile race to end the meet at Oaklawn.  LOL

[HogFanInBryant]

They look like so gassed by the top of the stretch.  Painful to watch the last 2 furlongs

How did none of the also rans make up ANY ground in the stretch on the leaders?  I'm wondering if this is the year the Fla Derby produces absolutely nothing?

[userpick]

Love the haters! Materiality looked Upstart in the eyes and took over. That's the first time Materiality has faced a real challenge and he responded. How did the La Derby look to you guys? Because the horse that lost by a neck lost to Materiality by several lengths last start back. I made a future wager on Materiality yesterday but he is up against huge odds as he did not run as a 2 year old. I just don't know how anyone can throw out any horse because of what we've seen this year. American Pharaoh beat horses that haven't even won allowance races!

[kingoftherapids]

1:52 and change at Gulfstream... Slowest florida derby in 60 years literally. None of these florida horses want anything to do with a pharaoh or Dortmund.  Ending quarters of 27 seconds is not going to cut it. almost 14 seconds for the last 8th... The looking in the eye thing is relevant but I could say the same about my great grandmother not letting someone out walk her in her walker

[userpick]

1:52 and change at Gulfstream... Slowest florida derby in 60 years literally. None of these florida horses want anything to do with a pharaoh or Dortmund.  Ending quarters of 27 seconds is not going to cut it. almost 14 seconds for the last 8th... The looking in the eye thing is relevant but I could say the same about my great grandmother not letting someone out walk her in her walker

1:52 is irrelevant. He ran 1:49 in his last race against a horse that just ran 2nd in the louisiana derby. I'll bet Pletcher will tell you that's not how he wanted to run this race. Let's not act like Upstart isn't a solid horse.

[ghostzapper]

This horse will bring out the classic "I know what it looked like" versus Beyer figure assigned conflict.  Fla Derbygets the highest Beyer figure assigned to a prep to date: 110.  If that holds through the Triple Crown, you'd have the makings of Affirmed and Alydar.  But, it's Pletcher, so who knows if he makes it to Louisville or beyond.

[ghostzapper]

if you look at GP final times and splits yesterday, Materiality's race looks good.  When 105+ Beyer sprinters only go 1:24.61 for 7 furlongs, you have a dead track. 

Compare it to the Skip Away, won by Pletcher's Commisioner, at a mile and 3/16ths.  Fractional times of that race were, 24.38, 48.9, 1:13.81, 1:38.72 and 1:58.6.  Materiality's race was 23.81, 48.24, 1:12.51, 1:38.57 and 1:52.30.  Faster splits all the way around the track, and finished up an average of 6.88 for last two eighths, while Constitution was finishing 6.66.   

[cbhawg03]

Gulfstream has had trouble with track last 5 to 7 days they have raced, been a huge bias against those on the rail. My guess is they worked the track so much so to get rid of bias that is caused the times yeaterday.

[ghostzapper]

I'm sorry, I disagree.  This race is impreesive as hell. Beyer fig on Upstart's last race was off by 8 points.  He brings his A game every race, and he is the standard by which other horses vying for triple crown need to be judged.  He may wind up being Sham or Alydar, but the horses that beat him have got to be good. 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8qxU57qH7mE

[ghostzapper]

For reference, that beats California Chrome's Derby by at least four or five lengths.

[userpick]

For reference, that beats California Chrome's Derby by at least four or five lengths.

It's only you and me on the Materiality bandwagon! Lol

[HogFanInBryant]

I love this forum because it makes us all 2nd guess ourselves every time the 1st Saturday in May is looming.  You guys that like him are smart guys...but with all respect due I saw a horse absolutely dead tired after just over a mile put away another horse who was absolutely dead tired after just over a mile.  With all the speedy horses this year sniffing the Derby Trail...I'll find me one who likes to come from mid pack yet has tactical speed to stay in position.  I don't care if the Beyers are under the 100s...I know what type of colt I'm searching for this year.  Good luck to all...it's not even Masters Golf time yet so we'll have time to sit, watch, and make up our minds 40 more times LOL.

[ghostzapper]

He's obviously a talented horse.  Don't know if Pletcher can keep him moving forward.  But that is as fast a prep as we have had in March in a while.  I'm excited about both of those horses.

[ghostzapper]

There are always a thousand reasons for them to tank, and one reason for them to win the Derby.  They went around the track faster than anybody else Fla Derby day, including stakes horses.  They didn't crawl home, relative to other races on the card.  Maybe that's the best race either of them will ever run again.  But, if you give Upstart the fig he should have goteen in Holy Bull, he's now run three prep races faster than Smarty Jones did.  Tell me where that puts him.

[cbhawg03]

There are always a thousand reasons for them to tank, and one reason for them to win the Derby.  They went around the track faster than anybody else Fla Derby day, including stakes horses.  They didn't crawl home, relative to other races on the card.  Maybe that's the best race either of them will ever run again.  But, if you give Upstart the fig he should have goteen in Holy Bull, he's now run three prep races faster than Smarty Jones did.  Tell me where that puts him.

Behind Dortumnd and AP

[HogFanInBryant]

Behind Dortumnd and AP

The only horse I have seen run so far that is literally "begging" for races at the classic distances...is Dortmund!  He is a big goofy grinder who hasn't really figured it all out yet.  If he starts to mature and put some of the goofiness behind him...LOOK OUT...could be 2nd coming of Barbaro and yes that is who he reminds me of so far from what I've seen.  I know...too early to compare any 3 year old to Barbaro...but that is what I see in him.

[HogFanInBryant]

Dortmund is NOT a speed horse...not at all.  Just has found himself there in a few races.

[ghostzapper]

This group of three year olds may be as talented as we've seen in a while.  The last really good group we had was the Silver Charm klan. 

[ghostzapper]

And, if they ran the race next Saturday, I'd take either of the Fla Derby top two against anybody else. 

[HogFanInBryant]

And, if they ran the race next Saturday, I'd take either of the Fla Derby top two against anybody else. 

That's a strong statement...if I'm wrong about these 2 I'll be back to eat crow for sure!

[ghostzapper]

The only horse I have seen run so far that is literally "begging" for races at the classic distances...is Dortmund!  He is a big goofy grinder who hasn't really figured it all out yet.  If he starts to mature and put some of the goofiness behind him...LOOK OUT...could be 2nd coming of Barbaro and yes that is who he reminds me of so far from what I've seen.  I know...too early to compare any 3 year old to Barbaro...but that is what I see in him.

Barbaro was a talented horse, but one of the unfortunate things of his injury in the Preakness was that we did not see him lose to a more talented horse, Bernardini. 

[ghostzapper]

That's a strong statement...if I'm wrong about these 2 I'll be back to eat crow for sure!

i'll come back too if I am wrong.  There have been plenty of strong runners in Derby preps who faltered in the Derby.  For now though, I think Fla Derby shows a strong pair of horses.

[userpick]

Something else that I think being overlooked is Materiality ran the race with only 3 weeks rest after going 1 1/8 in his second career start. TAP said he wanted at least another week but didn't have that option. He'll get 5 weeks until the Derby and should improve off of this start. I believe the Kentucky Derby is wide open and the winner could be someone we haven't even talked about. The next few weeks will be fun.

[kingoftherapids]

1-41 pletchers derby record

Apollo in 1882. 0 for 52 since.  Last horse to win the derby without a two year old start. 

johnny V will let us know who the better horse is.  Anybody willing to bet who it will be? Carpe diem.

3 start materiality vs Dortmund in the stretch... They are looking eachother in the eye.  Tell me you take materiality... No.

[ghostzapper]

Your first three points are good ones.  Not sure I agree with the last one since he just looked a horse in the eye that is currently better than (certainly as good as) Dortmund and won.  Dortmund may run a race off the charts his next out and show he's better, which I hope he does, and we'll have us a nice crop of three year olds. 

[ghostzapper]

I'm not advocating Materiality for Derby lock.  I posted because theme of this thread started with the premise that Fla Derby horses were throwouts and, as of now, I would put them in the must use category.

[cbhawg03]

Your first three points are good ones.  Not sure I agree with the last one since he just looked a horse in the eye that is currently better than (certainly as good as) Dortmund and won.  Dortmund may run a race off the charts his next out and show he's better, which I hope he does, and we'll have us a nice crop of three year olds.

Materiality and Dortumnd separate themselves by 5 or 10 at the top of the stretch and battle to the wire, you really think Materality would come out on top Dortmund wants someone to run with him so he can destroy them, he seems to wait for horses and thrives on having other horses around. I'm not saying I will book your bet on Materality or think that Materality is an automatic toss, but there is no way I'm taking materiality over Dortmund in a stretch duel.

[cbhawg03]

1-41 pletchers derby record

Apollo in 1882. 0 for 52 since.  Last horse to win the derby without a two year old start. 

johnny V will let us know who the better horse is.  Anybody willing to bet who it will be? Carpe diem.

3 start materiality vs Dortmund in the stretch... They are looking eachother in the eye.  Tell me you take materiality... No.

Don't agree that it matters who JV picks. Obviously JV will pick who he thinks is the best horse, but that doesn't necessarily mean much. Take 2010 for instance

Todd Pletcher had Super Saver, Mission Impazible, and Devil May Care. JV rode Devil May Care. He could have easily rode Super Saver or Mission Impazible if he wanted. Matter of fact, I would say that the great Ramon Dominguez could have rode Super Saver, but he rode Homeboykris in the KY Derby.

Jockeys are going to pick the best horse, but that has nothing to do with who will win.

[kingoftherapids]

Don't agree that it matters who JV picks. Obviously JV will pick who he thinks is the best horse, but that doesn't necessarily mean much. Take 2010 for instance

Todd Pletcher had Super Saver, Mission Impazible, and Devil May Care. JV rode Devil May Care. He could have easily rode Super Saver or Mission Impazible if he wanted. Matter of fact, I would say that the great Ramon Dominguez could have rode Super Saver, but he rode Homeboykris in the KY Derby.

Jockeys are going to pick the best horse, but that has nothing to do with who will win.

1) Calvin road super saver in the arkansas derby. he also won with him the fall before in the G2 jockey club... johnny V on the other hand never won a race aboard him. i dont think johnny V was going to get the option to boot a jockey who had won 2 of the last 3 kentucky derbys and had ridden the horse to his only stakes win. remember, this was before animal kingdom, so johnny V hadn't broken his Kentucky Derby maiden.

2) johnny V will have riden both Carpe Diem and Materiality in their preps for the derby so big difference there as well.

3) while it doesnt mean a win... there is nobody on this planet that knows which horse is better than a future hall of fame jockey. that doesn't translate to which horse will finish in front of the other in may... its just like horse racing... who do you rest your odds on?

[userpick]

Dortmund might win the SA derby by 12 and I'll change my mind...but as of this writing, you can't tell me Dortmund will easily pass Materiality in the stetch of any race 1 1/8 or longer. He's never been that far! We'll know very soon. I love this time of year. By the way, if you don't think Materiality can go longer than 1 1/8, go watch the Islamorada on March 6th of this year.

[kingoftherapids]

you are very very very right... i dont think dortmund will pass materiality. i just dont think dortmund would get passed.

[userpick]

Hahaha. So who do you have as of now, AP or Dortmund?

[kingoftherapids]

like ive said in another post, i could see a bob baffert exacta. he really thinks it AP might be his best 3 year old ever at this point. that weighs on me a lot. i know trainers pump their horses, but AP has done nothing to put an inkling of doubt about that statement. granted he hasn't had to do much yet. what really sucks is it doesnt look like he will ahve to do much in a couple weeks here either.

[userpick]

Baffert also said "The Man" would be one of his best horses...as of today that hasn't happened. AP will definitely have more competition than he did in the Rebel. Far Right will keep it close.

[cbhawg03]

Baffert also said "The Man" would be one of his best horses...as of today that hasn't happened. AP will definitely have more competition than he did in the Rebel. Far Right will keep it close.

Moquette needs a rabbit for AR Derby

[HogFanInBryant]

One thing to remember about a great 3 year old colt around KY Derby time...a speed horse that doesn't have to have the lead.  Remember Smarty and Lion Heart?  Lion Heart was a real racehorse...and Smarty was good enough to back off and run down real speed.  Lion Heart was bred to take his speed over a classic distance of ground.  Maybe this year we could have a few Lion Hearts and one Smarty that can run them down.  The big question is who will go to the lead and who will sit back?  Will a nice horse get alone on softer fractions and beat some colts who are much more talented?  Sometimes when you have a lot of good speed horses...all the jockeys get scared and don't go.  Just food for thought.  I still think Dortmund has yet to figure it all out...he has that grinder look to him and a damn long lazy stride about him.

[HogFanInBryant]

One other thing about the Fla Derby now that I've had time to digest it all.  If the track was tiring and slow it might make sense...nothing made up any ground on 2 highly touted horses who did appear to be dead tired and out of gas.  But...they ran off and left the rest of them and a few are royally bred.  Maybe I am wrong...I just can't get over the physical appearance of the top 2 after barely a mile.  It can't be argued that they were dead tired...a horse's body language never lies.  Go back and watch them both right around the mile part of the race.

[ghostzapper]

http://www.drf.com/news/road-derby-analysis-florida-derby

[userpick]

One other thing about the Fla Derby now that I've had time to digest it all.  If the track was tiring and slow it might make sense...nothing made up any ground on 2 highly touted horses who did appear to be dead tired and out of gas.  But...they ran off and left the rest of them and a few are royally bred.  Maybe I am wrong...I just can't get over the physical appearance of the top 2 after barely a mile.  It can't be argued that they were dead tired...a horse's body language never lies.  Go back and watch them both right around the mile part of the race.

I'm not disagreeing that they didn't look like world beaters in this race. As I've said in this thread, the race on March 6th shows that Materiality can go longer than 1 1/8 and he beat a really good horse at the same time.

[ghostzapper]

They went fast for the early part of the race and still finished with enough to earn the fastest Beyer of the year by a three year old, and tied for the fourth fastest two turn Beyer of any horse this year.  Their six furlong time was 1.3 seconds faster than they went in the Skip Away.  Their mile time was .13 seconds faster than the mile in the Skip Away and 1.97 seconds faster than the Oaks.
   

[HogFanInBryant]

We will only know who is right and who is wrong after they run the Derby this year.  I do have one theory on the high Beyers coming from what appeared to be a slow Fla Derby...the turf writers have been accused of being pro-west coast over the past few years.  What better way to try and please those accusers than to give ballooned figures for races from the east coast and get those horses some attention?  And if you don't think Andy Beyer lets politics get into how he issues his figures...then you are kidding yourself.  I don't care if they put gummy black tar in the track for the Fla Derby...those figures are not accurate.  As I always say and always do...I am far from always right and when wrong I will come hat in hand to eat crow...pat those on the back who were right...etc...but I feel confident I am right about the Fla Derby group.

[cbhawg03]

We will only know who is right and who is wrong after they run the Derby this year.  I do have one theory on the high Beyers coming from what appeared to be a slow Fla Derby...the turf writers have been accused of being pro-west coast over the past few years.  What better way to try and please those accusers than to give ballooned figures for races from the east coast and get those horses some attention?  And if you don't think Andy Beyer lets politics get into how he issues his figures...then you are kidding yourself.  I don't care if they put gummy black tar in the track for the Fla Derby...those figures are not accurate.  As I always say and always do...I am far from always right and when wrong I will come hat in hand to eat crow...pat those on the back who were right...etc...but I feel confident I am right about the Fla Derby group.

I'm not for or against Materality at this point, I don't like Pletcher at all and don't want to see the Zayat's in the winners circle on the first Saturday in May. I do find it hilarious though that some of you guys just want to skip over the fact that there had been a huge bias against those on the rail the 5-7 racing days before Florida Derby Day and at least the Sunday after it also. They had been working the track so much that it killed the track.

Let Google be your friend and search for the trainer of Upstart comments after the race talking about how bad the track was, which he also talked about the stewards leaving before jockeys could file objection against Materality. You guys are just ignoring the fact off how the track was playing to throw stones at Materality's performance.

As much as you guys trash Materality, you could do the same with AP and some with Dortmund. Who in the world did AP beat in the Rebel? He had the race all to himself and was never contested, should have won by more. How about Dortmund? He looks like a giraffe out on the track, big goofy horse. He is like WTC, all it will take is a tiring horse to stop in front of Doetmund and his Serby race is over cause he is so big he won't be able to start again. Who has been Dortmund's main competition? Firing Line that beat a cast maybe worse than what AP beat in the Rebel when he romped at Sunland. Oh yeah he set a track record, blah blah blah. They have set a track record on Sunland Derby Day since I was in diapers. Then Dortmund has beat Mr. Z, who like another Zayat horse, Prayer for Relief, he needs some class relief. Mr. Z is eligible for a N1X!!!!

Dortmund could put it all together and sweep triple crown. Personally have questions about the pedigree of AP, but he could do it, but guess what? So could Materality. Quit looking at the final time and maybe how tired they were and take into account the track.

[cbhawg03]

http://againstthenumber.com/american-pharoah-back-in-the-derby-hunt/

[HogFanInBryant]

I'm not for or against Materality at this point, I don't like Pletcher at all and don't want to see the Zayat's in the winners circle on the first Saturday in May. I do find it hilarious though that some of you guys just want to skip over the fact that there had been a huge bias against those on the rail the 5-7 racing days before Florida Derby Day and at least the Sunday after it also. They had been working the track so much that it killed the track.

Let Google be your friend and search for the trainer of Upstart comments after the race talking about how bad the track was, which he also talked about the stewards leaving before jockeys could file objection against Materality. You guys are just ignoring the fact off how the track was playing to throw stones at Materality's performance.

As much as you guys trash Materality, you could do the same with AP and some with Dortmund. Who in the world did AP beat in the Rebel? He had the race all to himself and was never contested, should have won by more. How about Dortmund? He looks like a giraffe out on the track, big goofy horse. He is like WTC, all it will take is a tiring horse to stop in front of Doetmund and his Serby race is over cause he is so big he won't be able to start again. Who has been Dortmund's main competition? Firing Line that beat a cast maybe worse than what AP beat in the Rebel when he romped at Sunland. Oh yeah he set a track record, blah blah blah. They have set a track record on Sunland Derby Day since I was in diapers. Then Dortmund has beat Mr. Z, who like another Zayat horse, Prayer for Relief, he needs some class relief. Mr. Z is eligible for a N1X!!!!

Dortmund could put it all together and sweep triple crown. Personally have questions about the pedigree of AP, but he could do it, but guess what? So could Materality. Quit looking at the final time and maybe how tired they were and take into account the track.

It wouldn't be any fun to stop being critical of these prep races...isn't that the point of handicapping these wonderful animals and their connections when this time of year rolls around?  I lol'd at you calling Dortmund a giraffe...damn that is spot on...he is one goofy SOB.  But...you and I are on the same page...when and if he gets professional and puts it all together...watch the hell out!  I can't put my finger on it...but he has "rockstar" potential that I haven't seen in a 3 year old in as long as I've been following the Triple Crown trail.

[cbhawg03]

http://regalbloodlines.com/tag/american-pharoah/

[cbhawg03]

It wouldn't be any fun to stop being critical of these prep races...isn't that the point of handicapping these wonderful animals and their connections when this time of year rolls around?  I lol'd at you calling Dortmund a giraffe...damn that is spot on...he is one goofy SOB.  But...you and I are on the same page...when and if he gets professional and puts it all together...watch the hell out!  I can't put my finger on it...but he has "rockstar" potential that I haven't seen in a 3 year old in as long as I've been following the Triple Crown trail.

Not saying don't debate the horses and connections, just you guys are completely ignoring the most obvious things, the track and how it was playing. You can't use that and their final time to say automatic toss. Look at all the final times and go back and watch the last 5-7 cards prior to last Saturday at GP and go watch Sunday's races at GP to see the bias.

[ghostzapper]

We will only know who is right and who is wrong after they run the Derby this year.  I do have one theory on the high Beyers coming from what appeared to be a slow Fla Derby...the turf writers have been accused of being pro-west coast over the past few years.  What better way to try and please those accusers than to give ballooned figures for races from the east coast and get those horses some attention?  And if you don't think Andy Beyer lets politics get into how he issues his figures...then you are kidding yourself.  I don't care if they put gummy black tar in the track for the Fla Derby...those figures are not accurate.  As I always say and always do...I am far from always right and when wrong I will come hat in hand to eat crow...pat those on the back who were right...etc...but I feel confident I am right about the Fla Derby group.

I like debate about the horses and respect your take, but Andy doesn't let "politics" play into final figures.  There can be debates over whether a figure is too high when the unusual number comes up using the projection method or when there's one turf race on the card,, but Andy wouldn't make the final decision on what number to use based on something like whether it would make a horse, trainer, jockey or track look good or bad.  It is not his constitution. 

Arkansas race fans are fortunate because Randy calculates the Oaklawn figs and, not only is he the best handicapper in America, he's the best of the Beyer calculators.

[kingoftherapids]

I have been on record all spring to say that the derby winner is going to come from california. i still believe that even without a few MAJOR contenders in Texas Red and Calculator. the better horse on saturday in florida was Upstart.he ran 18 feet further according to trakus than materiality and was interfered with. I would take a seasoned upstart in the derby before i took materiality IF i had to go with a florida horse. now later in the summer or fall, i could see materiality being the better of the two. the derby isn't a race that these lightly raced horses excel at...